Baker Mayfield’s Week 4 Passing Chart
October 1st, 2024
The Bucs still aren’t throwing deep (very much).
Joe sensed a pattern through the first three weeks. Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen wanted to limit his quarterback throwing 20 yards or more downfield.
That mostly continued Sunday against the Eagles.
Coen has had Baker Mayfield largely throwing outside the hashmarks. That was, until the Eagles’ game. On Sunday, Mayfield scattered passes all over, just not deep.
Mayfield had four attempts over 20 yards, per NexGen Stats, completing just one. Overall, Mayfield was 30-of-47 for 347 yards with two touchdowns and no picks.
October 1st, 2024 at 4:35 pm
10-15 yards is his absolute sweet spot… anything longer is hit or miss.
October 1st, 2024 at 4:39 pm
Whatever keeps the chains moving and winning games….take what they give you.
October 1st, 2024 at 4:42 pm
I suspect that will change later in the season, if/when Coen has more confidence in the OL.
October 1st, 2024 at 4:45 pm
Until the OL improves I expect shorter passes. That gameplan last week got us 33 points so it worked well. I’m expecting ATL to play tight coverage expecting short passes. With some good pass pro, Bake and Mike could hit a big one.
October 1st, 2024 at 4:49 pm
Film time – for those that care, I just watched the every offensive snap on the ALL22 and here’s my takes…
Sucke, sucks. You could tell the Eagles players were exhausted by the fact that Sucke didn’t look as terrible as he normally does as the game goes along, but sure enough, when the Eagles rotated their guys, he’d get beat clean faster than a hiccup. There is no excuse for him starting, and he shouldn’t even be on the team. The quick passing game saved him from another horrific week on the stat sheet for sacks given up, but make no mistake, he was terrible once again.
Also, Rachaad White is a better pass blocker than Sucke. I know I don’t like the garbage RT, but I’m telling you, White on a handful of plays, one-on-one was standing blitzers straight up while they’d run right around or over Sucke. If you think I’m making things up or just hating on Sucke, go watch the tape. White had a great game overall, two amazing catches, looked great in the run game with cutbacks, a really really good game by White.
While I generally like Cade Otton, he was terrible in this game. Along with two drops, he was getting handily beat when attempting to pass or run block. It wasn’t ever time, but he stood out for getting beat a lot of times. I want to say 5, but I wasn’t focusing on it, so it might have been. Not physically beat either, just like he wasn’t sure what he was doing, at least that’s what it looked like to me.
Cody mostly had a good game, and it was great to see him physically manhandling Jalen Carter at various parts of the game, including early on when the Eagles weren’t worn out. Cody did have kind of a missed block on the sack that Sucke gave up, but he was helping on a combo block with Barton and I’m not sure if there was a miscommunication or if he just got clean beat and was slow to react. In any case, overall, Cody looked solid, and physically he looked very good. Remember Cody was a college tackle and this offense requires a ton of movement out of its guards and centers, so perhaps its taken him a bit of time to figure things out, but this was a good game for him.
BTW, I didn’t notice Barton at any point in the game – which is great news, as you shouldn’t notice good offensive lineman.
While Baker had a very good game, those two drives before halftime – he was off on nearly every throw. People talked about the Eagles getting tired, maybe Evans getting tired, but I wonder if Baker was getting a bit tired. Not bashing him or anything, but just pointing it out as the rest of the game he looked very good.
The real star however was Coppertop, that was just an exceptional game plan. Quick releases negated that garbage RT that has been killing the offense. Not sure you can do this again vs the Falcons, as I assume they’ll simply make adjustments and come up and play on the LOS, but if they don’t, just do this, it works amazingly well. But if you’re not going to do this, have White in there blocking on every pass play helping Sucke.
October 1st, 2024 at 5:28 pm
The Bucs aren’t throwing deep for 2 reasons, 1) O line protection has not been good enough to get receivers deep, 2) Many teams have gone to 2 high safeties to prevent receivers getting deep. The latter is the reason scoring is down in the NFL this season. QB’s are throwing fewer touchdown passes this year. Everything in the NFL goes in cycles. When teams have success throwing underneath the safeties, like the Bucs had last week, safeties will move up and deep routes will work again provided O lines can provide QB time.
October 1st, 2024 at 5:29 pm
Baker has to release the ball quickly because of the weak Oline. It kind limits vertically developing plays. Think some of his release times were 2.2 seconds or faster. Like 1.7 seconds. Coen is going go figure out what the Falcon’s defense will do and use a lot of motion, spread formations, etc. I expect screen passes to the RBs will be used heavily if Atlanta brings the blitz. I hope the offense gets out to a fast start.
October 1st, 2024 at 5:39 pm
Rod Munch Says:
October 1st, 2024 at 4:49 pm
Film time
I read that Bucs had 6 drops, would you agree? Drops will happen and inaccurate throws happen, but 70% completion rate and 6 drops is off the chart. I would take this every game and I think the the score will take care of itself.
October 1st, 2024 at 5:40 pm
^ Baker had the fastest average release time of his career on Sunday.
The quick passing game worked great, especially with helping our o-line. If ATL plays deep safeties again I expect they’ll do the same. But I would guess ATL is going to try to challenge that a bit, in which case we’ve got to test them deep. Maybe some jumbo sets to help with protection int that case.
We’ve heard Baker say many times already this season that their entire philosophy is about taking what the defense gives them and being efficient.
October 1st, 2024 at 5:46 pm
BakerFan Says:
October 1st, 2024 at 5:39 pm
Rod Munch Says:
October 1st, 2024 at 4:49 pm
Film time
I read that Bucs had 6 drops, would you agree?
——–
Cade had 2 that I’d certainly consider drops. Johnson had the dropped TD.
But some of those called drops I don’t think were drops. In particular the ones by Evans. The one before the half was Baker off target and Mike was fully extended behind him just to get one hand on it. The other ‘drop’ was the over the shoulder sideline catch that I wouldn’t consider a drop as it would have been an extremely difficult catch because of the sideline (and on that play, you see Mike get his hands on the ball and look down to see where the sideline is when the ball comes out – that’s not a drop as the level of difficulty was extremely high).
It’s possible a couple of other drops were there that I’m just not remembering, but drops didn’t seem like an issue on replay without commentary. Baker played a great game in any case, and certainly should have had another TD with that drop by Johnson.
October 1st, 2024 at 5:48 pm
How bout Davante Adams, Mike Evans, & Chris Godwin in the slot… LFGoooooooo!!!! For what would be a LATE 2ND, & you keep him AWAY from The Saints, Ravens, Chiefs, Redskins (I just flat-out REFUSE to call them the “Commanders,” or “Commandos”), etc. I’d take it! Might be time to at least, start ‘thinking about’ making a run now, with all of these injuries’ beginning to pile-up for all of the ‘top-tier’ teams. ESPECIALLY, if he’s there still ‘available’ after these next 2-weeks, & if we make it through completely healthy, & sitting real PRETTY at 6-2 with Junior & Kancey set to return. That would make quite the “Monday Night” with the Ravens coming to TOWN… I’d much rather see him on our side versus theirs, that’s for sure!!!!
October 1st, 2024 at 5:50 pm
unbelievable – I’d find it impossible to believe that Morris isn’t going to watch that Eagles tape and be ready for the quick passing game if the Bucs choose to go back to it. But man, Sucke is so bad, he’s going to blow-up the offense again if you go away from that, so short of Luke coming back, they’re going to have scheme around not having a legit NFL RT. Seriously, White looked fantastic blocking guys – and he should be the guy to help, not Otton who had a terrible game in my opinion. If they want to put White and Bucky in the backfield at the same time, that’s not a bad idea as White can help block – or you can sucker teams in with ‘blown’ blocks that are screens, swing passes, etc.
We did not see the offense adjust to Sucke in game 2 or 3, so I hope they figured out how bad he is and how, if they scheme around him being awful, they can still move the ball.
October 1st, 2024 at 6:05 pm
“The defense dictates where the ball goes”. Just keep the chains moving. Absolutely loved the offensive game plan and performance. Might be one of the better offensive games of Buc ball I’ve ever seen. Loved it!
October 1st, 2024 at 6:09 pm
Rod – I saw Otton make a nice play along the sidelines where he shed two “tacklers”, gained the first down, and tried to steamroll the next “tackler”.
Philly looked awful on defense – again. How they handled the Saints is a mystery.
October 1st, 2024 at 6:45 pm
That was the book on Philly – especially when the o-line is not up to full strength – and the QB is getting rid of the ball in an average of 2.1 seconds as has been reported. There aren’t a lot of deep shots that are going to happen when your game plan is to get rid of the ball that quickly, no time burners on the field to take the top off the defense.
Every defense we face is going to try & do what Denver did to us – but they can’t cover everything – which means the underneath is going to be left open. It’s not so much a trend – as it is the reality of taking what the defense is giving you.
It was a great plan for Philly – let’s see if that will hold up against the Falcons…hard not to take advantage of having 3 of the best underneath receivers in the NFL.
October 1st, 2024 at 6:54 pm
The BUCs have no legitimate deep threat.
Palmer can’t run routes properly, though he is fast.
October 1st, 2024 at 7:03 pm
Irs nice to see more in the middle of the field. You never wanr to just limit yourself to the sidelines. I remember previous games in past years where they just made a tent they called it where you cover deep and sidelines and we never adjusted to take advantage of the middle. The more you keep your opponent accountable and ask him to cover all parts of the field, the better. Be nice to have goedeke back and he able to at least threaten deep occasionally even though it’s lower %
October 1st, 2024 at 7:27 pm
The Eagles were without their two starting WRs and their RT, Lane Johnson, arguably the best RT in the NFL (highest paid RT still I think). Their Offense couldn’t do much at all so their Defense was on the field most of the game as the Bucs dominated time of possession.
Someone asked how this has anything to do with our Offense. It’s simple, their Defense was GASSED. They were on the field most of the game. It matters. A balanced teams help their O & D get enough rest when they’re not on the field.
Bucs won’t have it so easy against other Defenses.
October 1st, 2024 at 7:29 pm
Mayfield has accuracy issues. This is completely different than overall completion % because checkdown throws skew that number and Mayfield is mostly completing short passes. It’s definitely a concern.
October 1st, 2024 at 7:37 pm
Trask to the future, baker isn’t getting protection long enough for a deep ball right now so you take what you can get and what the defense gives you, baker had a good game and your just mad and hating right now over it, boo hoo. I don’t know why you come to these boards when you’re not a Bucs fan.
October 1st, 2024 at 7:38 pm
I never thought I would say this, I completely agree with ROD MUNCH. Even this last two drives before the half, I think the heat was getting to everyone and that’s baker included, he also almost fumbled a snap, that was completely on him, guessing he didn’t get enough sweat off his hands. But good observations
October 1st, 2024 at 8:13 pm
Baker is the best thing that has happened to the Bucs since Brady! He has been a fighter throughout his career, Everywhere! Obviously, he is a great leader and this team will play their hearts out for him! Todd Bowles is also a great HC, he knows how to lead this team! I think the writing is on the wall we have the weapons, they do not. Buccaneers beat the Falcons handily this Thursday night !! Go Bucs !! LG !!
October 1st, 2024 at 8:28 pm
Chad,
LOL I’m probably a bigger Bucs fan than YOU. Were you at the first Super Bowl we won in 2003 in San Diego against the Raiders? I was.
Baker played a good game against the Eagles, I agree. But he’s still throwing a lot of inaccurate balls. It’s concerning.
I don’t hate Baker, I think he’s scrappy and has moments where he plays really well. I’m just a REALIST. I remember all the stinker games he had last year where he barely threw for 100 yards in the first half of games and we fell behind early, never to catch up. And in those games he racked up tons of garbage time yards when other teams gave us whatever we wanted underneath in soft prevent because we were so far behind. There’s a reason we lost to almost all the teams with a winning record last season. Mayfield played terrible against most of those teams. He had a great game against the Packers and a solid game against the Eagles in the playoffs (even though the Eagles had major issues last season). But he had a lot of really bad games that so many Bucs fans don’t want to admit to.
I just want to see Baker be more consistent and increase his productivity for the Offense against better teams. He has NOT done that since he’s been in Tampa.
His QB Rating was below average for quarters 1, 2, 3 last season if you analyze the stats. His 4th quarter ratings were middle of the pack and definitely better, but a lot of that was skewed based on the garbage time stats mentioned above. Yet so many fans think he’s “elite” and have bought into the MOXIE hype. It’s just not true. He ranked in the lower half of starting NFL QBs last year by most reasonable QB Rating metrics.
October 1st, 2024 at 8:43 pm
Bucs are 3-1. What’s with all the complaints about not enough long bombs? A good offense eats up the clock, scores points, and lets their defense rest. It was hot and humid on that playing field. A bad news hurricane had just blown through. Bucs had the Eagles by the throat by the half cos Philly was exhausted. Didn’t matter. The defense was rested. Atlanta plays indoors so let’s hope Bucs are ready for it.
October 1st, 2024 at 8:55 pm
Trask to the future. This year baker is top 5 in every qb statistal category this year, so he must be doing something right
October 1st, 2024 at 10:18 pm
“Trask To The Future Says:
October 1st, 2024 at 7:27 pm
The Eagles were without their two starting WRs and their RT, Lane Johnson, arguably the best RT in the NFL (highest paid RT still I think). Their Offense couldn’t do much at all so their Defense was on the field most of the game as the Bucs dominated time of possession.
Someone asked how this has anything to do with our Offense. It’s simple, their Defense was GASSED. They were on the field most of the game. It matters. A balanced teams help their O & D get enough rest when they’re not on the field.
Bucs won’t have it so easy against other Defenses.”
………………………………………………….
So they were gassed on our first 3 drives? You are literally a 9 year old
October 1st, 2024 at 11:21 pm
TTTF. Most reasonable QB Rating Methods? Like passing yards,passing touchdowns, and interceptions? You are truly a Ding Dong TTTF.
October 1st, 2024 at 11:36 pm
If someone would just put a slab of a water buffalo carcass out at RT it might give Baler the extra 10th of a second he needs to hit a deep shot. The fact that he’s performing at this level with 4 offensive linemen and a fast lane to Baker on the right – amazing.
Too bad we still have an isjut who carries the name of the clipboard holder in her handle posting wishes for her crusty poster boi.
October 1st, 2024 at 11:57 pm
I usually read all the comments but I’m done with Trash to the Past. Don’t bother replying, I ain’t looking…
October 2nd, 2024 at 12:39 am
Kenton Smith, no like QBR which often is more accurate than just stat totals due to garbage time yards & scoring.
October 2nd, 2024 at 12:40 am
Beeej, we did great on those opening drives, I was referring to the rest of the game.
October 2nd, 2024 at 12:43 am
Chad, no he’s not. He’s *13th* QBR.
October 2nd, 2024 at 7:01 am
I’m thinking QBR takes sacks into account, which would explain his very low # for the Denver game
October 2nd, 2024 at 1:09 pm
I love the baker Mayfield in Cleveland yes he was immature and arrogant but he had a drive and I also think the coaching staff did him wrong by playing him when he said he was okay when his shoulder was bad Baker good luck to you in the future seems like you got your head on your more mature now with a child and a wife God bless you go bucks I’m a Browns fan
October 2nd, 2024 at 5:09 pm
BEEJ,
This is how it’s calculated:
——
ESPN’s total quarterback rating (QBR) is a proprietary statistic that measures a quarterback’s performance in a game. QBR is calculated by following these steps:
1. Calculate the team-level EPA
For every play that a quarterback is involved in, calculate the team-level expected points added (EPA).
2. Divide the EPA
Divide the EPA among the quarterback and their teammates.
3. Add up the plays
Add up all of these plays and divide by the total number of clutch-weighted plays.
4. Translate to a scale
Translate the per-play measure of efficiency to a number on a scale of 0–100.
QBR takes into account a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including their performance on passes, rushes, penalties, and turnovers. It also considers the context of the game, such as the strength of the opposing defense and the score differential. For example, a quarterback who throws for four touchdowns and 300 yards against a strong defense will have a higher QBR than a quarterback with the same stats against a weaker defense.
The average NFL quarterback has a QBR of around 50, while a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback is 75.
October 2nd, 2024 at 8:04 pm
Trask To The Future – As I think you know, I’m not a Baker Boi, and will call him out when he plays terrible, but he played a great game vs the Eagles, and the Redskins and even the Lions, considering how bad Sucke was in that game. Baker was terrible vs the Broncos, and it wasn’t all the line, he wasn’t even looking down the field that game when guys were running wide open and he had time.
With that said, you’re picking a very very bad stretch to bash Baker. Also, if the offense just keeps doing this, which is getting the ball out quickly and letting the WRs and RBs make guys miss, Baker is going to look really good as it plays into his game as his accuracy issues really show up once you start getting more than 15 yards or so down the field.
But Baker has played great in 3 games, so now isn’t the time to dig into him being sucking. I hope he can keep it up, we saw see.
October 2nd, 2024 at 8:40 pm
Rod,
Baker has for sure had some solid stretches of play this season. I’m still not sold on him as the “future” of the Bucs franchise. He needs to be more consistent and improve his accuracy. He had A LOT of really bad games last season despite his full season yards and other stats. His QBR told the real story that he was in the lower 3rd of the league (20th if I recall).
October 2nd, 2024 at 10:07 pm
If Coen runs the same game plan against Atl they’ll feast on some of those underneath routes. He needs to give help to Mr Turntable so there’s time to get some deeper routes open like that 30 yarder out to Sheppard. More screen plays would help.