When Teams Struggle With Sacks, Often, So Does The Record
September 24th, 2024
The man is not Houdini.
Yeah, so the Bucs lost one game on Sunday. First one of the season. Joe’s not panicking. Yet.
The Bucs are in first place. The Bucs host the vulnerable Eagles on Sunday.
However, there is one thing about the Bucs defense that has Joe fully triggered. It is how inept the team is at getting sacks.
Todd Bowles is indifferent to sacks — so long as he gets pressures. Well, there is all kinds of data that suggests Bowles should be worried about sacks.
Just take this season, for example. Through three weeks, teams that suffer a sack have only a 6 percent chance of scoring a touchdown on that same drive and a 26 percent chance of any type of scoring (including field goals).
Without suffering a sack, teams are scoring touchdowns at a 23 percent rate per possession and 40.5 percent of drives end in some sort of score.
Very significant difference, no? That’s just one example of why sacks are drive-killers.
Here’s a bigger picture of the repercussions of not getting sacks:
The Bucs, who have given up 13 sacks through three games while only putting a quarterback on the ground twice (Jayden Daniels of Washington), are on pace for just 11 sacks this season.
That’s laughably pathetic. Laugh, that is, until you cry.
Joe did the homework of every team this century who had the lowest sack totals each season. Only the 2008 Chiefs (10) had a worse sack total.
Those same teams averaged 5.5 wins. Only two made the playoffs, the 2014 Bengals (10-5-1) and the 2016 Raiders (12-4). Both teams were bounced in the wild card round.
So leading the league in fewest sacks is no laughing matter.
Does Joe think the Bucs will improve at getting sacks? Sure. Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey returning healthy should help the entire defense.
Will it be enough to keep the Bucs from having the lowest number of sacks this season? Joe sure hopes so.
Lowest Sack Totals By Season In 21st Century
2000
Cowboys 25 (5-11)
Cardinals 25 (3-13)
2001
Cardinals 19 (7-9)
2002
Cardinals 21 (5-11)
2003
Bears 18 (7-9)
2004
Texans 24 (7-9)
2005
Browns 23 (6-10)
2006
Redskins 19 (5-11)
2007
Bengals 22 (7-9)
2008
Chiefs 10 (2-14)
2009
Jaguars 14 (7-9)
2010
Broncos 23 (4-12)
2011
Bucs 23 (4-12)
2012
Jaguars 20 (2-14)
2013
Jaguars 31 (4-12)
Bears 31 (8-8)
2014
Bengals 20 (10-5-1)
Lost to Indianapolis 26-10 in Wild Card game
2015
Dixie Chicks 19 (8-8)
2016
Raiders 25 (12-4)
Lost to Houston 27-14 in Wild Card game
2017
Bucs 22 (5-11)
2018
Raiders 13 (4-12)
2019
Dolphins 23 (5-11)
2020
Bengals 17 (4-11-1)
2021
Dixie Chicks 19 (7-10)
2022
Bears 20 (3-14)
2023
Stinking Panthers 27 (2-15)
September 24th, 2024 at 4:58 am
Can’t disagree with the logic Joe; 2 sacks in 3 games is pathetic. But 2 questions remain: (1) WHY? and (2) WHAT to do about it?
The WHY is fairly easy to answer IMO … we don’t have the elite horses right now. Bowles’ defense has always depended upon the interior of the DLine to eat up blocks & create PRESSURE. That opens holes for our blitzers AND allows our OLBs to thrive while also playing contain (both JPP & Shaq were very good at that IMO). When Vea AND Kancey are both healthy, our OLBs & others have a better chance of producing sacks as well as other pressure.
BUT neither Vea (nor Kancey is healthy. Out of our total 212 def snaps, Vea only has 74 & Kancey has 0. And so we’ve had to rely on Gaines (148 snaps), Hall (76 snaps), Gholston (68 snaps), Brewer (65 snaps) & Greene (58 snaps). IOW, a rotation of backups playing against other teams starters. I think the result is rather predictable.
The 2nd question of ‘WHAT to do about it’ is laughable now that the season has started. There are no White Knights waiting in the wings to ride in & save us. We talked about this all off-season: our depth sucks & we need more quality beef on this DLine. Hall isn’t the answer on the interior (he MIGHT be useful further outside though IF we fix our interior). Brewer & Green aren’t the answers. I love Will Gholston, but strictly as a backup at this point in his career. Bucs NEED a DT of Suh’s quality to complement Vea, but players of that caliber are REALLY hard to find.
September 24th, 2024 at 5:17 am
Just need to look at this last game where we needed 15yds+ on multiple 2nd & 3rd downs to see the advantages of getting a sack vs simply pressuring the QB into an early/errant throw. Bowles will likely point out that Mayfields pick was due to pressure, as was one of our picks on Goff. They both impact a QB, but impossible to downplay the importance of sacks though as he tries to do sometimes.
Still pissed that our plan for this season was to rely on some MIRACULOUS improvent in sack production from 6 guys that, up to this point, have not shown the ability to get the QB on the ground consistently at the NFL level. As JPP showed, you just need one decent one to elevate the entire group. That was the one major miss from Licht in what was an overall excellent off-season.
September 24th, 2024 at 5:21 am
We dont have a consistent 4 man rush since the Superbowl year.
It is evident. Yes we will have some good games but we will also see many games with no pressure. I dont know why but the front office and the coaches think we are ok. We are not, at least if they want to compete at the high level.
We will get sacks from blitzing but even then if you look at the blitz rate and the sacks we are not very efficient in that area too. How about telling the DBs and the coverage to be more aggressive when a blitz is called and not sit about 10 yards of the WRs. It defeats the purpose of the blitz.
And a last point. The Bent but dont Break Defense that the coaching stuff seems to love. Yes you can win some games if the Offense will score points. But if you are getting outgained by double amount of yards every game then i m sure you wont win much.
Go Bucs
September 24th, 2024 at 5:24 am
The fact that not a single one of our DL or OLB’s could win a 1v1 matchup going against a sub-par OL, that also included a rookie T making his first start, is a pretty big indictment on the quality of players we have at those positions & the prep the staff put into this gameplan.
September 24th, 2024 at 6:41 am
This team was exposed big time. Oline is a disaster. Dline is a disaster.
The receivers could not get separation leading to BM holding the ball too long.
Exposed. Can u imagine the gall of these players coming out thinking all we have to do is show up and we got a W. Who do they think they are? Apparently they couldn’t help but pat themselves on the back after the big win in Detroit.
Professionals my a$$. My vote for the biggest bum in the first month of the season is the paper tiger Callijah Kancey. He’s useless. Next biggest bum is Britt.
That play at the goal line with he and Anthony Nelson was PATHETIC.
Right now this is a bad football team. We’ll see how they respond Sunday to the ass kicking they received last wknd.
September 24th, 2024 at 7:17 am
Woe and despair everywhere!!! Makes me laugh a bit. The NFL wants every team right now to be 2-1 or 1-2. Mediocrity rules. Not one preseason NFC SB contender is undefeated. The mighty 49ers are 1-2.
Get the lines healthy and then let’s see where the offense is. Get the lines healthy and then let’s see what we have with our pass rush.
Just beat the Eagles baby!
September 24th, 2024 at 7:51 am
Pewter Power Says:
September 20th, 2024 at 7:38 pm
We have a September team. If you can’t run or rush the passer you get exposed you know kinda like last year after that 3-1 start.
Or how about this one
Pewter Power Says:
September 20th, 2024 at 2:55 pm
Would be less worried about losing Vea if we had a pass rush but oh well I’m not surprised at all. Outside of yaya and Kancey licht and Bowles actually thought they had the squad they needed to dominate the trenches.
Don’t expect a bounce back game after all we are playing at home and the Bucs have no spine
September 24th, 2024 at 8:24 am
Finally you guys are catching on, maybe the licht boot licking will stop but he’s gone into a shell so everyone has forgotten about his draft parade all offseason. Dude is mediocre thinking he can win a championship without drafting a single a hole on his team. That was high character guys blown off the home field by one of the worst teams in football. Is he sure Brady changed the culture because they were getting blown out then too
September 24th, 2024 at 8:44 am
Post of the year so far.
Great work joe
September 24th, 2024 at 9:06 am
Pewter Power Says:
September 24th, 2024 at 8:24 am
Finally you guys are catching on
^^^^
Sad to say I was on the hype train. I believed in the guys we had, still think Yaya and Braswell need to be starting together to give us our best shot. But I was blind to the lack of depth. Honestly it only takes 1 guy on both lines to be hurt and we become extremely lackluster. I don’t think completely jumping ship is the move right now and saying we’re going to have a dramatic reality check but these next few games are scary and it’s becoming hard for me to stay delusional about our chances.
September 24th, 2024 at 9:10 am
Its Licht and Bowles fault. We did nothing to address this lingering problem from last yr. We drafted a rookie at DE who had been a non-factor so far. We have no choice but to blitz like crazy every game. And that leaves us wide open for pass completions. We have to outscore opponents. And that will only work when we are clicking on all cylinders. Good article here Joe.
September 24th, 2024 at 9:36 am
The guy whose blitz % has never ranked lower than 3rd in the league since 2019 is indifferent to sacks! Who knew? A+ analysis guys way to go!
This BS continues to be your most easily dismissible talking point.
September 24th, 2024 at 9:51 am
We’re saying the same thing every few games. Bucs are just getting pushed around even when Vita Vea and Kancey were healthy we were 4-7 at one point last year, Vea goes down and look the only help licht gave the d line was undrafted. We don’t need competition for Logan hall he’s our starter lol. Should have listened to the Joe and made a trade for a pass rusher or another interior pass rusher
September 24th, 2024 at 10:56 am
diaby the ghost. we put a looooot of eggs in his basket. both sides of the line really
September 24th, 2024 at 10:58 am
“The Bucs are in first place. The Bucs host the vulnerable Eagles on Sunday.”…Joe
Uhh, Joe, we look pretty vulnerable ourselves. I was one of the “trap game” believers and was not surprised when an accurate passer (and Nix is that) would trash our defense. Playing 10 yards off will get you beat against a passing team. I didn’t think we would rag dolled on offense though.
Hate to say it but I predict we lose to the Eagles.
September 24th, 2024 at 11:07 am
Going back from 2023 Offensive Rankings for these teams were
32,28,29.28.27.23,9,6,7,15. Had I chose to go further it probably would have been more of the same.
In addition to the fewest sack the teams were just not very good. Only teams in
the span of 2023 to 2014 to have the fewest sacks, a top 10 offense, and not make the playoffs were the Bucs and Falcons.
Bucs are Averaging 276 yards a game and based on how the field finished in 2023 would be good for 29th. tied with the Patriots.
Bowles defense has been the bright spot of the season and I would be more worried about the dismal offense than how many sacks the defense gets.
September 24th, 2024 at 11:07 am
Offensive line play is more about coaching and play calling than defensive line play. Technique and communication make a better offensive line. Talent helps but our offensive line players are not responding to the level of strength and aggression on the other side of the ball. They have to get tougher and more resilliant. The coaching staff has to work these guys into being stronger and smarter.
Offensive play calling hasn’t been very good the past couple of games. There needs to be more carries by Irving and McMillan and Palmer have to get some targets as Mayfield has been too focused on feeding Godwin. Just watched the Washington-Cinn highlights, Burrow and Daneils were finding multiple options in the passing game. The Bucs should be a team that if one WR is doubled, then the quarterback has to have other options. Shorten up the routes, throw to the seams, anything that gets the ball out of Mayfield’s hands quicker.
Coen has called 2 very bad games in a row. The Eagles are coming into Tampa very beat up at WR. Their best 2 guys Brown and Smith probably won’t play. That means Hurts and Barkley will be the offense. Bucs better sharpen up their tackling, that Nelson/Britt miss of the touchdown run where back was pinned was undisiplined and unprofessional for anyone on the field.
September 24th, 2024 at 11:50 am
I am panic. That game was too awful not to.