Offensive Line Showing Cracks?
September 19th, 2024
Mixed messages.
The stat nerds are going to have a slapfight over this.
It seems two sources that traffic in advanced stats have conflicting information on whether the Bucs’ offensive line is showing large cracks in pass blocking or is one of the better units in the NFL.
Something called “Doug Analytics,” which happens to be followed by several stat and non-stat guys Joe trusts, had a graphic this week showing how fast opponents have gotten pressure on quarterbacks. Apparently, defenses are getting pressure on Baker Mayfield the seventh-quickest in the league at 2.23 seconds.
That means, unless Mayfield wants to run around, he has to unload the ball quickly. (Could this be why Mayfield has had so few 20-yards or more pass attempts?)
So obviously, that’s not good.
Then there is Judah Fortgang of the PFF tribe. His research shows that only Aaron Rodgers has thrown from a clean pocket more than Mayfield.
So what gives? Either Mayfield is getting limited blocking or the Bucs’ offensive line is doing a strong job.
Here is Joe’s guess: This Justin Skule has everything related to Bucs blocking all out of whack. Talk about a turnstile or a pair of swinging saloon doors, Aidan Hutchinson abused him so badly DCF wants to take custody of Skule for his own protection.
It actually bordered on irresponsible that the Bucs kept Skule out there while Mayfield was risking a major injury.
Hell, the Chiefs pulled their rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia on Sunday for giving up two sacks to Trey Hendrickson, not 4.5 sacks to Hutchinson like Skule did. (It seems like the Chiefs really miss Donovan Smith.)
Once Luke Goedeke gets healthy again (concussion), Joe thinks the offensive line will be just fine in time. It will look a whole lot different come Thanksgiving than it does now.
How fast has each QB been pressured?
(2024 Weeks 1-2 | min 30 dropbacks)Dak Prescott has been pressured 6 times in 1.5 seconds or less. Only 3 other QBs have more than 1 pressure <1.5s. All 6 of Dak’s were unblocked
Data: @FTNData pic.twitter.com/6JmYIPoutE
— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) September 17, 2024
How often QBs have had clean pockets so far this season and their EPA from them pic.twitter.com/TeNX9HkuJ4
— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) September 18, 2024
September 19th, 2024 at 4:08 am
I’m not putting any stock into rankings after one week with a backup tackle who got absolutely abused by a stud pass rusher. If Goedeke was out there? Okay, I’d look into this, but I’m chalking it up to bad game plan, bad backup and bad (no?) adjustments.
September 19th, 2024 at 4:10 am
I gotta say a ton of this is skewed from the Lions game and we know why.
Baker is still tied for the lead with TD passes so we have to be doing something right. Denver is a terrible team with Nix as QB. He takes a monster back pedal and their O Line gives pressure a ton.
On defense Zach Allen is a beast, but has a shoulder injury. In the Seattle game Denver got 2 safeties and had good field position but Seattle ran well. So did Pitt in the second half. They have some key injuries at LB and S also.
If we get Goedeke back, I think we win by 20+.
Nix should be good for at least 1 pick, probably a couple. He is terrible when blitzed. Humphrey looked good at the end of the Pitt game, but outside him only Josh Reynolds looks good. I agree we can’t overlook them, but we should win this game easily.
September 19th, 2024 at 4:49 am
The PFF data may be influenced by the number of wide receiver screen passes and other quick throws to receivers who are still at the line of scrimmage. The pocket is still “clean”, but the ball is thrown in less than two seconds. So, both evaluations may be credible since they have different points of focus.
Also, the PFF folks rank the Lions defensive line as one of the very best in the NFL at number four – that is going to skew things when the sample size is just two games. (The Commanders are respectable at number 19 with the Bucs at number 20.)
I disagree about Skule. He did look terrible on two sacks. But, he was up against one of the best players in the game, and he still was very stout in the pocket on many plays. Other players had breakdowns. On one sack, Mauch missed the stunt. On another sack, a defender got past Wirth right as another got past Skule with pressure coming up front also. Yes, I want Goedeke back out there when he is healthy. But, Skule should be serviceable against most of the opponents he would face in a complete season.
September 19th, 2024 at 5:00 am
Keep an eye on Mauch. Aside from Skule last week, he got beat more than any other O lineman.
September 19th, 2024 at 5:18 am
Skule had a terrible game, but the “help” he was given wasn’t very helpful. Otton and White should be embarrassed.
September 19th, 2024 at 6:13 am
Cracks? How about way overrated by the flag wavers?
September 19th, 2024 at 6:37 am
I’m glad I’m not a stat geek. Far from it. Our O – line has taken the brunt of criticism from fans and media alike for last weeks win against a very physical opponent. I bet the O – line room has an edge to it this week. Good we’ll need it this week. In what could be a trap game this O – line will have their best game. And we all know what happens when the O – line dominates. Bucs 31 – Broncos 14.
September 19th, 2024 at 6:37 am
Hard to judge that OL when they’re trotting out a human traffic cone at RT.
Also, still waiting for Mauch to ‘get it’. He hasn’t exactly been great either.
September 19th, 2024 at 6:44 am
2-0
September 19th, 2024 at 7:45 am
Interesting data graphs.
The good news, from one of your posts yesterday, is that Goedeke was at practice, not full practice, but still there. He should be good to go for the Eagles or Saints game.
September 19th, 2024 at 8:07 am
Stop with the Trap game BS. Good teams don’t get “trapped”.
Besides that, the reason they got called them trap games back in the day is because the “Frank Black’s” kept overlooking the “Berry White’s”.
Now the league is run by Berry, and he has all but told Frank to stay in his lane.
September 19th, 2024 at 8:20 am
In 2023 with under 2.5 to throw Mayfield ranked 9th with a PFF grade of 78.2.
Fancy always takes a little longer and from what most are saying Bucs new offense is ‘Boushy’ under Coen. Dalton will give the Panther’s a better chance at success under Canales because he can run the offense as directed.
Mayfield’s success of running it up the gut is more off the opposing defense’s Dereliction of their responsibility and won’t continue long term. Better find another leading rusher fast.
September 19th, 2024 at 8:25 am
PFF credit Skule with 3 sacks. And he graded out higher than Graham Barton..
September 19th, 2024 at 8:26 am
@lakeland
Something is broken with PFF this year imo. These have been the worst grades vs eye test I can remember.
September 19th, 2024 at 8:27 am
@Lakeland
3 Sacks makes sense. He played like he had a handy cap. Would wish more than one on anybody
September 19th, 2024 at 8:31 am
No reason Ko Kieft should not have been helping Skule. Kieft is 6-5 255 and supposedly is a good blocker. Where is Ko Kieft?
September 19th, 2024 at 8:36 am
In the first two games I have seen Cody Mauch get rag dolled into the play, it’s too early to say after the first game being the first game as a unit and the second game playing next to Shule , but he is still a unproven player
September 19th, 2024 at 8:52 am
Liam Coen isn’t helping the O- Line in pass or run protection. The Bucs dress 3 TEs , and they carries a fourth on their roster. He know the O-Line has new players in a new system. I would imagine he would utilize more 2 TEs formations. Instead of going with the 3 WRs formation. WR3 rarely get targets, also Palmer and McMillan are poor blockers..
September 19th, 2024 at 8:53 am
Skule vs. All-Monster, All-Healthy Hutchinson. Well, you know who’s gonna win that one by a country mile. Kudos to the Lions for drafting and coaching this guy. Hey Joe, Bucs Offensive line hasn’t fully finalized its lineup, and then had the time to jell. Sheesh! Go Nuts!!
September 19th, 2024 at 8:54 am
“It actually bordered on irresponsible that the Bucs kept Skule out there while Mayfield was risking a major injury.”
COEN HAD A REALLY BAD GAME
I just rewatched the game and this is 100% correct. By the 4th quarter, they should have figured this out. Baker was getting killed. Skule is not an NFL OL.
I also hated the 3-6 pass with :45 left in the game. If they run, Detroit burns their final timeout.
September 19th, 2024 at 8:56 am
Nuts? That’s supposed to be Bucs* Auto-edit and I are going to war. Grrr.
September 19th, 2024 at 8:56 am
The Bucs carries 4 Tight Ends on their roster. It’s time for them to use more 2 Tight Ends sets. And less 3 Wide Receivers sets. The third receiver rarely get target anyway. And they are poor blockers..
September 19th, 2024 at 9:03 am
One of these days, people are going to start believing these nonsense offensive line grades are worth about the same as what the dog drops in the backyard each morning.
September 19th, 2024 at 9:06 am
Joe hated it because it was “this-close” to a pick six. (Whew.)
September 19th, 2024 at 9:31 am
Mauch has been very underwhelming. He has a loooong way to go and I’m not sure he’ll ever get there, either.
September 19th, 2024 at 9:57 am
“Here is Joe’s guess: This Justin Skule has everything related to Bucs blocking all out of whack.”
Sound logic Joe! Sound logic.
September 19th, 2024 at 11:37 am
Cracks? Is the Grand Canyon a crack? This Skule is like the San Andreas Fault. He’s a chasm. Jason must must must get someone from another team’s practice squad who is no worse. Hell, wheel Paul Gruber’s 59 year old frame out there, he’s at least get in the way for a minute.
Skule is a disgrace.
September 19th, 2024 at 12:20 pm
The title was a question.
The answer is YES
September 19th, 2024 at 1:56 pm
Lots for Cohen to learn from that game, but also I think they guys have to do a better job at chipping (when they actually chipped). Might want to get some practice sessions on chipping.
September 19th, 2024 at 2:35 pm
I’m sure it’s skewed from Skule vs the Lions, but the simple eye test would tell you there is absolutely no way that Mayfield has had the 2nd cleanest pocket in the league.
September 19th, 2024 at 5:37 pm
The blocking all around was poor. If Jalen finishes his block on Carlton Davis, not only does Godwin pick up that 1st down on 3rd and very long, he probably houses it. Lots of film to learn from boys.
Now go lay the hammer to Denver!