Bucs Are Moving The Ball
September 26th, 2024
Bucs OC Liam Coen.
Yes, the Bucs are moving the ball. Even with a shaky run game, even with Mike Evans largely not being much of a factor, the Bucs are moving the ball down the field.
The worst thing an offense can do is go three-and-out. Not only does it give up the football quicker to the other team, and likely give opponents more chances to score, it also cooks your defense.
So yes, the Bucs are moving the ball at a good rate. Only seven teams have a lower rate of three-and-outs than the Bucs, per Sam Hoppen of FantasyPros.
However, the Bucs are not turning these good drives into points, for whatever reason. The Bucs are currently No. 15 in offensive points scored.
Joe thinks part of this can be attributed to giving up sacks. For example, against Denver, the Bucs’ first two drives started well. They were moving the ball. They go to midfield and Denver put Baker Mayfield on the ground.
The result? Punt team, get ready!
Is the key to touchdowns getting Mike Evans worked into the offense more? Does that mean getting Bucky Irving worked into the offense more? Does that mean using Trey Palmer’s electric speed more? Does that mean more downfield passes — less than five percent of Mayfield’s pass attempts have gone farther than 20 yards downfield?
Probably, all of the above.
September 26th, 2024 at 12:41 am
Even a mildly incompetent RT would help the Bucs to 24ppg, short of the 30ppg they need to average to make the playoffs. This whole fiasco is no mystery. Coaches and management have forced the offense to accept a grotesquely inadequate teammate at a critical offensive position, resulting in the disintegration of a promising offense.
If an average DC is looking at an offensive line with 4 players, he’s gonna feast. The better ones, like Payton and Siriani, make you look like damn fools.
Todd, though, he’s doing great, he has a plan. Todd is the best.
September 26th, 2024 at 1:47 am
That’s a fascinating chart Joe, not because of the Bucs but because of the 1st team we beat … the Commanders. They’ve got the lowest 3-and-out rate of any team in the league and are now 2-1. Must be doing something right, but what, considering that they have a rookie QB?
They’ve become a throwback to the Redskins of old … run the friggin ball … and it’s working beautifully for them (#5 offense with 79 Points Scored … 26.3 PPG). I’m envious.
o Bucs 37 Commanders 20: Washington ran the ball 30 times (138 yds, 3 TDs), passed it 24 times (184 yds, 0 TDs) and took 2 sacks … 53.6% run-pass. Scored on 3 of their 9 drives (all TDs). Significantly, went 2-for-8 on 3rd down conversions, but 1-for-1 on 4th down conversions.
o Commanders 21 Giants 18: Washington ran the ball 35 times (215 yds, 0 TDs), passed it 29 times (226 yds, 0 TDs) and took 5 sacks … 50.7% run-pass. Scored on 7 of their 8 drives (all FGs). Significantly, went 7-for-14 on 3rd down conversions, and 1-for-1 on 4th down conversions (made a FG on that drive which was the difference in the ball game).
o Commanders 38 Bengals 33: Washington ran the ball 32 times (108 yds, 3 TDs), passed it 23 times (254 yds, 2 TDs) and took 2 sacks … 56.1% run-pass. Scored on 6 of their 8 drives (5 TDs, 1 FG). Significantly, went 5-for-9 on 3rd down conversions, but 3-for-3 on 4th down conversions (scored 17 points on drives kept alive by successfully converting on 4th downs).
So on the season (small sample admittedly) Commanders have run on 53.2% of their plays … for a 4.8 YPC average. They’ve scored on 64% of their drives … with 6 rushing TDs, 2 passing TDs & 8 FGs in their 25 drives. They’ve gone 5-for-5 on 4th down conversions, and that’s been the winning margin in their last 2 games. And oh ya, they’ve made 0 turnovers. Yup, old-fashioned Redskins football.
In the 2 games we won, the Bucs also ran the ball … 53 times for a 49% run-pass rate. In the 1 game we lost we barely ran the ball … 16 times for a 25% run-pass rate. Baker needs at least the threat of a credible running attack to be successful. And he also needs decent pass protection to be successful. It’s up to our OLine to get their act together and provide both of those.
September 26th, 2024 at 4:31 am
FAKE STATS 😉
These stats are misleading, I bet. Just like Mayfield’s season stats from last year that were full of late game stat padding when we had no chance of winning games in the 4th and prevent defenses gave us tons of yardage underneath.
Do they have these stats BY QUARTER? I’d bet anything they tell a different story. Once we get down by multiple scores defenses give up more underneath stuff and even 1st downs. It runs the clock and stops any homerun miracles that are often the only way teams can get back into games. So the 3-and-out averages get skewed.
September 26th, 2024 at 4:52 am
Agree with DR – Great graph. As a rookie, Jayden’s last game was impressive. Also agree, Baker definitely does need pass protection. I really like Baker, and unfortunately he takes too much time to throw the ball.
I think we may see some good surprises on Sunday. Still optimistic for a win. Go Bucs!
September 26th, 2024 at 5:33 am
Pretty simple really.
1. Guard play is terrible (both of them)
2. Right Tackle is terrible due to injury
3. White is simply not a starter at Running Back. Bucky is a better runner. If you want to bring White in on obvious passing downs then he’s great.
4. Not throwing the ball to Evans is malpractice. I remember another WR that played for us wrote the book. Throw Mike the dang ball or something like that.
September 26th, 2024 at 6:47 am
Baker has the worst DOT(depth of target) in the league this year at 5.03. That has to be fixed. Is it because our O line, our game plan or is this in Baker. I don’t know but that is an awful statistic to be leading in the NFL IMHO. With the weapons and speed we have that isn’t going to cut it.
September 26th, 2024 at 7:16 am
Mac … Great catch on ADOT, and I’m sure that it is very telling. Back in 2018 under Koetter, Bucs ADOT with Jameis & Fitz was 10.6 YPP. Stayed basically the same in 2019 (10.5 YPP) when BA came in. Then in 2020 when Brady arrived, ADOT dropped a little to 9.2 YPP, then dropped a bit more in 2021 to 8.1 YPP.
In 2022 (with our reworked OLine), Brady’s ADOT dropped even further all the way to 6.7 YPP. It actually improved in 2023 when Baker arrived to 8.5 YPP. Now this year (still just starting) it’s all the way down to 5.2 YPP … despite the fact that Baker’s got the highest completion rate (74.4%) of any Bucs QB ever.
Looks to me like the ADOT parallels the quality of the OLine even more than who the HC or OC or QB is. During the 2019-2021 years our ADOT (pretty good OLines) ranged from 10.6 to 8.1 with Jameis then Brady here. During the 2022-2024 years (not the geatest OLines) our ADOT has ranged from 8.5 to 5.2 with Brady then Mayfield here. Hmmm, maybe all QBs really do perform better if their OLine protects them. Whodathunkit?
September 26th, 2024 at 8:42 am
Being a glass half-full kind of person I can see an optimistic view of what’s happening. Even though chemistry is good, they are all still learning a new offense. That is evident by seeing a few times where receivers have been in the same area. If that was rookies it would be one thing, but I remember seeing Mike and Chris in the same neighborhood.
Then take the getting a new offense together time and add missing your RT. It’s pretty easy to see where it would throw a wrench into the mix.
Of course, we won’t know the answer for another 4-6 games from now. So the glass half-empty folks are just as right as I am at the moment. We shall see….
September 26th, 2024 at 9:01 am
Yep. All of the above.
September 26th, 2024 at 7:40 pm
Spot on Defense. I think it’s clearly an Oline problem. Licht needs to fix this NOW. Like if he doesn’t with the schedule upcoming the season may he over and we are talking draft by Halloween like the doom and gloom days we experienced for a decade plus.