Betting The Bucs (Week 4 Edition)
September 28th, 2024
“No sacks today, Bake.”
This weekly feature is not just a here’s-a-pick, get-your-best-bet thing.
Joe highlights Bucs-related lines each week in this space and how Joe is — and is not — throwing cash around.
Joe was 2-0 last week and is 3-1 on the season after a Week 1 focused on futures wagers.
(Sports betting is legal in Florida but there’s only one government-regulated Florida sportsbook monopoly run by the Seminole tribe, not to be confused with the PFF Tribe.)
**So Joe likes the Bucs on the money line (+100) with the Eagles down their two star receivers and quarterback Jalen Hurts struggling, and Todd Bowles owning Hurts historically. The Eagles also are playing back-to-back road games, always a challenge in the NFL. However, the Bucs have no true home-field advantage at The Licht House; Tampa Bay is 11-10 at home with Bowles as head coach, including playoffs. And Joe can’t ignore the issues across the Bucs’ offensive line, including Tristan Wirfs looking mortal, the guards playing too soft and Justin Skule looking overmatched as a fill-in starter at right tackle. Throw in a miserable Bucs pass rush and Joe will not plunk money down here.
Trey Palmer Over 1.5 Catches (-120)
In 13 out of 19 games last season, then-rookie receiver Trey Palmer caught two or more balls. Through three games this year, Palmer has just three targets. It doesn’t make sense. A stated goal from Bucs officials this offseason was to put Palmer’s speed to better use. Regardless, rookie receiver Jalen McMillan is doubtful for Sunday’s game (hamstring), so Palmer is virtually assured of a much larger workload. Joe sees Palmer getting at least one quick screen (aka an easy catch) coming his way. That makes Joe confident Palmer will hit the over here. It’s a ♦♦♦ play for Joe.
Total Sacks Under 5.5 (+100)
Combined, the Eagles and Bucs defenses average 2 sacks per game. The Eagles average just 1.3 per game and the Bucs are in the NFL basement at 0.7 sacks. Joe believes a major focus of the Bucs and Baker Mayfield will be to avoid sacks and quarterback hits at all costs. Mayfield has taken a beating the past two games and some of that has been his own fault. Joe would be surprised if Mayfield took three sacks, and Joe might fall on the floor in ecstasy if the Bucs sacked Jalen Hurts three times. So Joe finds this to be a solid ♦♦ play.
So, that’s where Joe is throwing a little cash.
Fun note: Within 90 minutes of Joe’s post here last week recommending taking Bucky Irving and “over” 31.5 rushing yards, the Hard Rock sportsbook took the wager off the board.
September 28th, 2024 at 7:15 pm
The Eagles are -1.5, and if was betting, I’d take that in a second. Sucke starting, alone, is worth 4 points to the Eagles. Could be an ugly game – except the Eagles are so poorly coached they’ll probably make it closer than it is, but easily cover.
On Palmer, totally agree on being over 1.5. That seems really safe as you figure the Bucs will be getting the ball out quickly, and he’ll probably have at least 2 screen/quick out passes alone with McMillan out. That’s a very solid play, agreed.
As for total sacks, I’m taking over 5.5. Just watched every single pass on the ALL22, and Sucke is so bad, there’s no way that doesn’t stand out on tape for Philly. If the Eagles aren’t complete morons they’re going to be putting a rusher over him on every play, because he can’t stop anything. Maybe the Bucs keep a TE back the entire game to help, but they haven’t down so in the past two games. Also the defense should get a sack or two themselves. I think you make some good points about the offensive scheme, but Baker generally has his awful games in clusters, they’re generally not one offs, so I think the Eagles are probably going over all by themselves.
September 28th, 2024 at 7:25 pm
Just the post I was waiting for. I’m taking Palmer over 1.5. This was the exact bet I lost against the Lions, but without McMillan, it should be much safer bet.
September 28th, 2024 at 7:31 pm
Rod, no way the Bucs don’t have help for Skule on nearly every down this week.
Agree with Joe that there won’t be three games in a row of Baker getting leveled.
September 28th, 2024 at 7:32 pm
Hope all 3 of you are doing well post storm
September 28th, 2024 at 7:41 pm
TykeeBucs Says:
September 28th, 2024 at 7:31 pm
Rod, no way the Bucs don’t have help for Skule on nearly every down this week.
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Sucke was terrible in the preseason, and I don’t know who didn’t see the disaster in Detroit coming – but the Bucs did very little to help him. I just watched him vs the Broncos and they didn’t give him a lot of help either, even though he was getting beat handedly nearly every time they rushed him. Shockingly, the Broncos didn’t have someone rushing over him on every play, no idea why.
The Bucs did run a handful of misdirection plays away from his side, which was smart – and a bunch of quick passing plays, which actually made Sucke’s stat line not look as awful as the tape, but he was terrible. No way the Eagles don’t see that on tape and take advantage of it.
BUT, I’m not putting money on it in any case, so it’s not a solid lock 100% double dog guarantee.
Hopefully Joe is right and they actually game plan for the coming disaster instead of pretending like if they just keep doing the same thing over and over again it will magically start working. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
September 28th, 2024 at 7:45 pm
Denver dominated the Entire Bucs O-Line, it wasn’t just a single player. The Line has to play better as a unit. And it seems like Denver was getting more push up the middle, creating havoc for the Bucs tackles.
September 28th, 2024 at 8:16 pm
However you bet, the Bucs will be 2-2 at 4PM
September 28th, 2024 at 8:28 pm
Thanks for the post richbucsfan.
Joe, where would you come down on the ATL NO game? I think the Falcons have the better roster but Saints have the better coaches right now.
Simply put, the Saints are playing better. This is a massive rivalry game, one of the most underrated and intense rivalries in the league. Joe likes the Saints with the points, especially with the Falcons’ offensive line questions/injuries, Cousins still figuring things out and Atlanta struggling for a pass rush. But it’s not Joe’s favorite pick given how jacked up the Atlanta crowd will be with possibly Atlanta’s shot at the NFC South title on the line. –Joe
September 28th, 2024 at 10:23 pm
3-1 F U GO BUCS!!
September 28th, 2024 at 10:34 pm
It’s hard to believe suckie is our second best right tackle. It’s kinda frightening that we have a player starting on offense that’s worse than dean on defense. But lo and behold, it’s true. Sad but true. This is like having to deal with that 5 inches of water my house took in this week. Dang the bad luck.
September 28th, 2024 at 10:46 pm
I have no faith in our right tackle stopping a cool breeze, let alone the Eagles D-line.
But I also have no faith in our D-line getting sacks without Vea and Kancey playing. So can see taking the under 5.5 sacks, but I’ll be shocked if Baker isn’t eating at least 3 or 4 given what we’ve seen the last few weeks.
Maybe Coen will shock us all and actually roll out a jumbo set or use TE to double team with Skule, but the last 2 weeks would tell us that’s not happening.
September 28th, 2024 at 11:50 pm
Thanks Joe, fair points… I almost talked myself into Atlanta and ultimately didn’t trust the coaching the matchup. With all the Bucs injuries, I am not exactly upset about ATL and NO both losing their starting C for a few games.
September 29th, 2024 at 12:31 pm
hard rock is by far the worst betting app out there. BC of their in state monopoly they screw us on odds constantly. Awful deal for Floridians. We should have the FREEDOM to choose.
September 29th, 2024 at 1:08 pm
boom…already 1st drive