Betting The Bucs (Week 1 Edition)
September 7th, 2024It’s a new Saturday feature here from Joe that won’t be just a here’s-a-pick, get-your-best-bet thing.
You may have heard that sports betting is legal in Florida but there’s only one Florida sportsbook run by the Seminole tribe (not to be confused with the PFF Tribe).
Joe will highlight Bucs-related lines each week in this space and how Joe is — and is not — throwing money around.
**Futures 1 — Last call for season wagers is always a fun time of year. They’re fun, and annoying because your cash is tied up for at least four months.
The Buccaneers’ win total over/under remains at 7.5. and the over is at -135. That means for every $10.00 wagered on the over, a winning bet brings back $17.40. Joe would never call any season over/under a 5-star wager, but Joe’s definitely giving the over here a 4-star ♦♦♦♦ designation. The Bucs could underachieve at 8 wins and still cover the over.
**Futures 2 — So Rachaad White had 990 yards rushing last season on a whopping 272 carries. His 2024 over/under rushing total sits at 825 yards. Joe leans strongly toward the under here but does not think the -125 line is good value. Joe believes the Bucs’ realistic goal is to have White roll for 200 carries for 800 yards, with rookie Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker combining for about 250 carries. Joe realizes lots of fans like White to crush the over. If you’re really in that camp, then Joe thinks the +100 (even money) is solid odds. Joe is passing on this. Tread carefully.
**Futures 3 — Mike Evans is 6 touchdowns from 100 in his career and he wants that huge milestone badly this year. But will he get to 9 TDs to break the 8.5 over/under? Evans has done that 5 times in his 10-year career. Joe’s not into coin flips. Pass.
**Futures 4 — So Mike Evans has 10 consecutive seasons of 1,000 receiving yards or more. The streak lives! Joe puts the Evans over 1,050.5 yards as a 3-star wager ♦♦♦ at +100 (even money). Joe’s core reason is the commitment of the coaching staff and roster to keep Evans’ streak alive. It’s so rare to know a franchise cares about a specific stat. Joe’s cash is behind that knowledge.
**Futures 5 — That commitment to Evans’ 1,000-yard streak Joe just mentioned? Consider there to be one nearly as strong at One Buc Palace to get Chris Godwin 1,000 yards in his contract year, which would be his fourth consecutive season of 1,000+ yards. Godwin’s over/under total is only 850.5 yards, with -110 odds in both directions. This is a 3-star wager ♦♦♦ from Joe, as well.
**Futures 6 — Fun stuff here. The over/under on Antoine Winfield Jr. interceptions is 1.5. Man, that feels like a naughty no-brainer because Winfield had 3 picks last season and is a stud around the ball. That said, Winfield had two seasons of only one interception (2020 and 2022). However, he played out of position at nickel for most of 2022. Joe sees the Bucs facing better quarterbacks this season and two Winfield picks last year came against Will Levis and Bryce Young. Joe’s calling this a 2-star ♦♦ bet on Winfield to hit the over. A $10 bet there would return $18.
**Don’t Touch – You’re not going to catch Joe playing genius on Week 1 spreads and over/unders. It’s Week 1. That’s usually guessing. Throw in a strong chance of rain tomorrow in Tampa at The Licht House and that broadens the variables. Rest assured that in the back of Joe’s mind is Bucs kicker Chase McLaughlin missing practice this week with an abdominal issue and Washington’s uncertain kicking situation.
**Just For Fun
2024 NFL Passing Leader:
This futures wager is to pick what QB will lead the league in 2024. … So Baker Mayfield ranked 9th last season in total passing yards. Joe threw $2.00 on this to chase an $82.00 payout. Joe could see a scenario caused by injuries — to other QBs and Bucs running backs — that could put Mayfield in the hunt.
September 7th, 2024 at 4:10 pm
No Kancey !
I can suit up, I’m at the airport about to fly down.
September 7th, 2024 at 4:28 pm
Fun stuff. Thanks, Joe.
September 7th, 2024 at 5:33 pm
I got Bucs -3.5
Cinci -8
Utes -15 )so far so good)
Nebraska -6.5
Tenn Vols -9
i put 20 on it for 507
September 7th, 2024 at 6:09 pm
Over/Under on the bum Kancey being able to play before Holloween?
September 7th, 2024 at 9:10 pm
Quite the contrary, Joe. Pros know the early weeks are the best to wager against. Not saying you can’t find good value, but the reality of certain players’ injuries is murky and fewer preseason snaps has changed the dynamic. Joe prefers more certainty, or at least perceived certainty.–Joe
September 7th, 2024 at 11:21 pm
We win this game 27-13 bucs can’t wait until tomorrow if the Lord wills !!
September 8th, 2024 at 5:05 am
Good overview and sound advice.
Not a gambler, but am very optimistic about the Bucs having a great season.
September 8th, 2024 at 6:35 am
That’s it. Joe’s not interested in giving them free promotion.–Joe