Mike Evans’ Streak Ends Because Of Baker Mayfield?
August 27th, 2024
Just not smart to bet against Mike Evans.
One gambling analyst is wagering her hard-earned Disney loot on Mike Evans’ finishing with under 1050.5 receiving yards.
This means Evans would come dangerously close to snapping his streak of 10 straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. That would suck.
So why might Evans have this drop off? Well, gambler Pamela Maldonado of BSPN claims it’s all because of Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield.
That’s what she pushed while on a Sharp Football Analysis podcast last week.
“I’m not even convinced he’s going to hit 1,000 yards this year,” Maldonado said. “His production is entirely contingent on Baker Mayfield.”
And here comes the all-too-predictable Mayfield Hate.
“Do I trust Mayfield to produce again?” Maldonado asked. “Because he exceeded in several areas last year.”
Then Maldonado rattled off a bunch of stats.
“And now you have Dave Canales, who was a huge part of those metrics… he’s gone,” Maldonado said. “So now I am asking myself, Mayfield, who hasn’t been an elite quarterback, with a brand new offensive coordinator…
“This is more of a fade on Mayfield, and Evans is going to suffer the consequences.”
Look, Joe has pointed out time and again that Mayfield had a career year last year. And it is reasonable to expect a regression. That’s natural for any player in any sport the year after having a career season.
What is regression for Mayfield? Maybe 200 yards less passing? Maybe 300?
Joe would give Maldonado a little more credit here if she didn’t blatantly ignore one major element: Mayfield already has thrown to Evans for a full season and Evans nearly had a career year himself.
So after a year of building chemistry, Evans’ production is going to drop by 25 percent or so? Remember, as a self-professed fat rookie catching passes from Stewart McClown, Evans got 1,000 yards playing opposite Vincent Jackson.
Anyone trying to tell Joe that Mayfield is worse than McClown simply doesn’t watch football. And now Evans is a savvy, in-shape veteran receiver.
If Maldonado had tried to argue Evans is 31 and Father Time taps on his shoulder, that would make more sense to Joe than expecting Mayfield to fully meltdown this fall. And besides, it’s not like Mayfield never played for or never had success with new Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Maldonado conveniently didn’t mention that.
You can see and hear her full take below.
"His production is entirely contingent on Baker Mayfield."@pamelam35 is taking the under on Mike Evans receiving yards, as heard on the Sharp Angles Podcast with @RMSummerlin
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August 27th, 2024 at 7:42 am
What she didn’t predict is that the Bucs offense is more efficient which I believe it will be. More sustained drives equals more yards and scoring. If the running game gets better it may take away a few targets, but that’s the only way Evans has less yards. Nothing to do with who is QB!
August 27th, 2024 at 7:45 am
4 out of 10 years Evans has finished under 1051 yards. 3 times he has gone into the last game under 1,000 years and had to be be force fed the ball to reach 1,000.
August 27th, 2024 at 7:48 am
Mayfield must get passed about everybody giving everyone else credit for his play.. hope he shows them it was him, and not the coaches
August 27th, 2024 at 7:49 am
Pissed
August 27th, 2024 at 7:56 am
There’s obviously a world where Evans doesn’t get 1000yrds, but I can’t see that happening without injury to Evans himself. We aren’t going to go from the leagues worst rushing game into being a team that can rely on the run game and neglect it over the top.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:04 am
NOPE, NEVER, AND FOR GOOD REASON
Winning is priority number one for the Bucs. Licht loves winning the division. Getting ME13 1K is priority number 2. The TEAM values his streak. You saw the team scheme the last game of the season for Mike when TB12 was here. If the team is all-in on 1K, it will happen.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:06 am
Yeah, just like saying that the team is going to get like five wins. Mike will get his yardage, and if not that will be a war that the Bucs won’t win, and you all know there’s teams that would gladly take him off our hands. So once again stupid people that don’t believe in the Bucs should have to walk the plank. Go Bucs!!!!
August 27th, 2024 at 8:08 am
I mean, after listening to her entire breakdown, I can’t say she’s way off base. It’s logical FROM AN OUTSIDERS POINT OF VIEW. But for us Bucs fans, we know it’s BS. Mike will get his 1,000 yards, because Baker trusts Mike and will target him a lot. And with the other threats we have now, both at receiver and running back, teams may not be able to double team him as much as they did in the past. It’s going to be fun to watch all of these so-called experts eat crow in January.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:18 am
So Canales was the one out there and not Baker? Or will his powers he just made Baker come back to life and now he’s dead because Canales took his powers with him? These people have some real issues. Come On Man…
August 27th, 2024 at 8:24 am
Mike’s 1000 will depend on our running game’s success. He will be less likely to make the yardage if we are able to succeed on the ground.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:27 am
It’s easy to see why so many think Baker hit his ceiling last year. He had his best year as a pro, and consistency hasn’t been his friend throughout his career. I see a QB who, if he can stay healthy, is just starting to tap the potential that made him the #1 overall pick. Expecting a more potent rushing attack this year, I think Baker punches through last year’s ceiling.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:31 am
1000 to 1050 leaves a 5 % margin of error. In 2020 Evans cleared the bar on his last reception of the Regular Season @ 1006 before leaving the game with a twisted ankle.
Mayfield is going to do what he needs to do to show he’s worth the money the Bucs just paid him. His numbers are going to come first. If that means more quick passes to other receivers that is what is going to happen.
Evans had 136 targets in 2023 or 24% of the attempts. If Joe wants a Puka this season then he should be alright with that guy getting 20 more targets than Evans based on last years numbers and Evans falling short of the Grand.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:31 am
Nobody has been a successful QB at Carolina for most of a decade. The Rams team he went to won a total of 5 games that year (2 of which he played in) and the previous season at Cleveland he should have been on injured reserve
August 27th, 2024 at 8:36 am
This ‘regression to the mean’ is stupid for people who don’t understand stats and football.
This year we have a better play caller, better OL and Mike/Bake chemistry that really helps Mike and Bake. POSSIBLE, maybe, things hurting Mike: tougher schedule, fewer targets due to better WR group, more runs, and fewer deep balls.
I don’t recall too many deep balls in practice from Joe’s notes so maybe Mike won’t get the long ball yardage like last year??? Joe what do you think?
August 27th, 2024 at 8:36 am
Jake been there since the beginning Says:
August 27th, 2024 at 8:18 am
So Canales was the one out there and not Baker? Or will his powers he just made Baker come back to life and now he’s dead because Canales took his powers with him?
In Bryce Young’s one drive in the Preseason he was 6 of 8 for 70 yards with one TD, converted on a 4th down, and was just as impressive as Mayfield. Don’t sell Canales short on what his impact was in 2023 with the Bucs.
As far as how it looks right now Young might give Mayfield a run for his money
for 3rd best QB in the NFCS.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:45 am
With the constant waves of lavish praise coming from the media, this team might be getting a little overconfident.
August 27th, 2024 at 8:57 am
Not interested in watching this dumb ass spew nonsense. Utter garbage.
August 27th, 2024 at 9:03 am
I see TB getting 1 win and Mayfield throwing for negative yards without Canales calling for those runs up the middle on 1st and 2nd downs for 2 to 3 yards total.
How ever will TB survive as a franchise without Canales?
Reality
TB will have a better year barring injuries to their core guys.
Mayfield will have better numbers than last year
TB will have a lot better run game and will score TD’s on some of their 1st possessions.
Evans will get his 1000 yards, he is still Mayfield’s favorite target and go to guy.
The media will be slobbering over the Bucs when playoffs come.
August 27th, 2024 at 9:20 am
Mike Evans has made garbage and average QBs look good ever since he was drafted. Maybefield will throw him the ball cause, at the end of the day, it will benefit his cause.
August 27th, 2024 at 9:20 am
Non-issue. Baker already said that he didn’t want to be the QB that breaks Mikes streak. There are only two ways to stop Mike from getting to 1k. They are injury or if father-time impacts his effectiveness.
August 27th, 2024 at 9:20 am
Fan of the South…
Please tell me your not automatically ranking two really old QBs (one coming off a substantial injury and the other was outplayed by Baker last year) as 1 and 2? Young and Mayfield may be the 1 & 2 by seasons end. Putting too much faith in QBs on the decline.
I agree with other previous posts on reasons why Mikes 1000 will not be hard to beat (always barring injury of course):
Chemistry developed between BM & ME over a full season.
Better O-line… thank you Barton & Bredeson.
Better play calling… no more Canales forcing runs.
Better defensive backfield giving the offense more opportunities (yes, I think the addition of Whitehead trumps losing Carlton Davis, who is hurt half the season every year anyhow).
Better run game will keep drives alive, not take away ME opportunities.
August 27th, 2024 at 9:46 am
Lies. Damn lies. Statistics. And I’ll add internal corporate reporting.
So a one year coordinator from last year is going to outperform a first year (with the Bucs) coordinator this year? Based on what evidence?
And statistically speaking, Baker is 29. Has been on four NFL teams. Who says that his statistical mean has even been reached.
I’m calling it right now: He’ll have a better year this year than last and his mean will raise as he moves into his thirties.
Now when Coen moves on…. Then we’ll see.
August 27th, 2024 at 9:48 am
I don’t believe it was a career year for Mayfield. I think it was the beginning of a five year run where he becomes what he always should have been.
By all accounts, the Buccaneers have-
Better OC
Better WRs
Better O-Line
Better RBs
People sure like to remember Canales and the Buccaneers offense in a good light when the reality was the vast majority of the games their offense was pretty atrocious
August 27th, 2024 at 9:53 am
A slob and a chick in her 20’s? Yeah, that’s where I’m going for my football info.
August 27th, 2024 at 9:59 am
Mike will be the reason he gets his 1K, Baker will be the reason he gets another 8+ TDs
August 27th, 2024 at 10:20 am
Ha Ha Ha Ha! What is this kid? 20 maybe? That kid doesn’t have enough life experience to even know when her period is coming much less a fraction of the intangibles of why it’s just as likely that Mayfield and Evens will have another breakout year….
This is life child. There is much to learn other than listening to your dad (a falcons or saints fan) give his half arsed reason why he thinks the most consistent “yard maker and breaker” in the history of the sport won’t do it again!
They actually play the game for a reason! I’ll take the other side of her bet Anyday and TWICE ON SUNDAYS! You’re making the wrong bet rookie!!!
August 27th, 2024 at 10:27 am
Not for nothing…but didn’t she make nearly the exact same prediction last year?
August 27th, 2024 at 10:29 am
If two WRs do not break 1,000 yards this year, we’re in trouble.
August 27th, 2024 at 10:33 am
Really?
He did it with Mayfield last season…
August 27th, 2024 at 10:37 am
Here’s the thing, losing Canales to the Panthers was a huge positive. Canales was way in over his head last year for most of the season. Now he goes to Carolina where he will continue to be over his head and doom them to failure. Coen has already proven that he’s better than Canales. I can see it in his personnel groupings, his presnap motion, play design, etc. Add in the fact that he ISN’T Canales, and he’s destined to be better. Baker Mayfield literally got Canales that job.
August 27th, 2024 at 11:19 am
I don’t believe a regression is gonna happen with Baker with a better oc and oline and good recievers. Go bucs!
August 27th, 2024 at 11:22 am
Maldonado … “His production is entirely contingent on Baker Mayfield.”
Well DUH … isn’t every WR’s production contingent upon their QB’s performance? Mike Evans has shown for 10 straight seasons that he can git-er-done REGARDLESS of who’s throwing him the rock (McCown, Glennon, Winston, Fitzpatrick, Brady, Mayfield). Yes Mike’s getting older, but it looks to me like he’s getting better. That veteran savvy counts for a bunch.
August 27th, 2024 at 11:33 am
My only concern is health. IF both Mayfield and Evans remain healthy ME will get his 1000. It’s pretty clear the team and the QB are well aware of ME’s streak and will even consider in their play calling.
IF Mayfield goes down I think Trask can also get ME13 the ball. This mainly revolves around ME13’s health and his notorious hammies.
August 27th, 2024 at 11:38 am
1200 yards this year,,, I personally thought Canales played things pretty close to the vest ,, only started to open things up in the 4th quarter when the Bucs were down 7 to 10 points. Liam looks like balls to the wall! And if we truly have a better rushing attack ,, oh my we might actually get the D to bite on play action ending w the bomb to Mike for a TD!
August 27th, 2024 at 11:48 am
The whiner’s on this site are like the mainstream media…just because you say the same thing over and over and over that doesn’t make it true.
Go bucs !!!!
August 27th, 2024 at 12:04 pm
Mike Evans will get over a 1k yards with Baker you can believer that. Don’t matter if you think Baker is a legit franchise guy or not Mike will produce. He always has and always will until Father Time gets him. Baker certainly won’t be the qb to break that streak, say what you want about him he will feed Evans.
August 27th, 2024 at 12:27 pm
If the Oline, Mayfield and Evans stay healthy, Evans and Mayfield will have career years
August 27th, 2024 at 12:48 pm
Mike’s goals…
120+ yards per game average.
1.5+ TD’s per game average.
Among others
All of his listed goals are however trumped by the goal of another Ring.
As a consistent ‘team’ player, I’m more worried about Mike injuring himself blocking for another ball carrier .
No, I am not privy to Mike’s personal goals. But I see these as achievable and probably close to his aims.
If achieved, that would be at least 3 new records, and a big chunk of all time records that I am sure he is also aiming at.
August 27th, 2024 at 12:49 pm
Wow, this is unsettling. This is Baker’s 2nd year with the Bucs and did well last season. Mike Evans has made every single QB that has thrown the ball to him look remarkable.
August 27th, 2024 at 1:33 pm
The entire team wears Mike’s accomplishment as a badge of honor. The only way he doesn’t hit 1000 in any year before retirement is serious injury because the team will make it happen through brute force, if necessary.
August 27th, 2024 at 1:51 pm
Here’s all you need to know…
Evans, with Mike Glennon and Josh McCown throwing to him, as a rookie, still got over 1000 yards.
Hopefully Baker can improve on his middling season last year – but even if he doesn’t, as long as Mike stays healthy, the Bucs will make sure he’s getting over 1000 yards.
August 27th, 2024 at 2:25 pm
I don’t buy that Mayfield had a “career year” in 2023 and there’s zero (statistical) reason to expect that he’ll “regress” in 2024. He had his 2nd highest QBR and passer RTG (per ESPN, see below) out of only six years, which is pretty small potatoes, and his RTG was nearly tied for 2nd with 2018. Even if you include 2022, his 2023 QBR wasn’t dramatically above his average; if you drop 2022, it was practically the same. Regression to the mean applies when someone/thing performs +dramatically+ better (or worse) than usual, when the usual is pretty long. Favre in 2009, with 33 TD vs 7 int…that was probably a career season. Mayfield in 2023 was just a solid year.
weighted average for two teams in 2022 RTG QBR
2018 93.7 51.2
2019 78.8 54.4
2020 95.9 65.5
2021 83.1 40.9
2022 79.4 26.3
2023 94.6 54.3
Average 87.58333333 48.76666667
Std deviation 8.000354159 13.52710858
Std deviations above the average 0.877044507 0.409055143
dropping 2022 as weird outlier RTG QBR
2018 93.7 51.2
2019 78.8 54.4
2020 95.9 65.5
2021 83.1 40.9
2023 94.6 54.3
Average 89.22 53.26
Std deviation 7.740607211 8.792212463
Std deviations above the average 0.695035913 0.118286496
August 27th, 2024 at 3:13 pm
The logic here is lacking just like the credentials for a take on anything NFL. WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE? So Mayfield had a career year last year therefore he’s gonna suck this year? The Bucs invested in their offensive line because they wanted to improve their terrible run game to be more efficient therefore the pass game will suffer? Specifically Mike Evans? The key to the Bucs pass game. Mayfield will be worse off without Canales? So many holes in the logic here and no credentials to back up this poor take.
August 27th, 2024 at 3:32 pm
Mike needs 1320 yards and 12 TD’s to become one of five receivers in NFL history to have 13,000 yards in 11 seasons and one of only six receivers in NFL history to have six seasons with 12 or more TD’s.
If he does this it will all but put the exclamation point on a Hall of Fame career seeing as all the others in each category are bona fide hall of famers already.
I hope he can stay healthy and this is a career year for him.
August 27th, 2024 at 4:02 pm
Nothing like listening to a bimbo on the R side, and who is that fat guy on the L? ME13 and BM have never had problems getting Evans another notch in his HOF resume. Canales sucked, big time!! He drove me crazy with his crappy, offensive gameplans. He throttled the offense. I am glad he’s gone. Mebbe he’ll strike gold and survive as the Panthers’ HC. I doubt it.
,
August 27th, 2024 at 4:25 pm
Improved blocking and a better running game should allow Evans looser coverage and Mayfield time in the pocket to find him. IDK if Mayfield will hit 4000 yds again, but he’ll be mighty close. Barring injury, there’s no reason for Evans to miss hitting 1000 yds. Coen’s not stupid, he’ll find a way to get Mike the ball. TBH, I am more concerned with Bowles generating a pass rush than I am with Evans getting his yardage.
August 27th, 2024 at 4:43 pm
JustVisiting – you can’t just throw out bad years because you don’t like them, if you do so, you also need to throw out the best year.
In any case, the 48.7 QBR says a lot. That means below average QB. If you drop his best and worst years, he’s at a 50 QBR.
However, in fairness to Baker, QBR doesn’t work via season averages – so you can’t really do the numbers that way, even if it’s a decent indicator of what to expect. Not an invalid number set, but also not a real stat, which is why they don’t show career QBR.
Here’s hoping he can improve from last year and level up – and with two ALL-PRO WRs, a better offensive line, a rookie WR who looks to be the real deal and more help in the running game, he doesn’t have any excuses not to be better.
Also, keep in mind, for all the talk about that 3-year 100-million dollar deal, the Bucs can get out of it fairly easily after this season, so if he doesn’t perform, they will likely move on.
At the same time, again to be fair to Baker, what he’s being paid is middling money for an NFL QB, so if he doesn’t fall off, he should be safe.
August 27th, 2024 at 4:49 pm
Evans has had McClown, Glennon, Fitzpatrick, and Winston as his previous QBs, but Baker Mayfield is going to be his downfall? This is just funny. Some people are just goofy goobers man; lol.
August 27th, 2024 at 5:40 pm
I hope she bet her entire life’s savings.
August 27th, 2024 at 5:58 pm
Time will tell, 2 weeks to kick off.
August 27th, 2024 at 7:33 pm
This is probably going to be the year that defines “Who is Baker Mayfield?” There are two parallel universes of possibility. In one, Baker is an inconsistent bridge starter who is ok until you get the guy you really want. His career stats can definitely be used to make that claim.
But in universe number 2, he is a number 1 pick who went to a trash organization and had by any real measure a great rookie year. He regressed a touch in year two but came back to put his team in the playoffs for the first time in years. Then his downfall is due to wrecking his shoulder one year and playing for another trash organization and horrible coach. When he lands here his head is on straight and he has the support of the team and talent to win with.
August 27th, 2024 at 7:49 pm
To be fair, he could go under 1051 yards (which is what the bet is), but still get over 1,000 yards.
But yea her reasoning is pretty dumb. ‘
A WR’s production is contingent on the QB throwing him the ball? Wow, groundbreaking stuff here lady.
August 27th, 2024 at 10:24 pm
JustVisiting – I dig the stat analytics, man. Excellent. That went over the heads of many, but I appreciate it.
August 27th, 2024 at 10:47 pm
Hard up for a topic this week? Uninformed commentary from people who have no knowledge about our team or our players history is a waste of time. I doubt her opinion would even be noticed by the players, let alone affect their game. Our team aims toward a Lombardy. not just the NFC South. That takes multiple 1000 yard players besides M1K3. Glad we have the players to hit it again this year. Defense can make or break a champinship, as seen with Kansas City lack of touchdowns. Go Bucs!
August 27th, 2024 at 10:58 pm
Hi Rod,
My point wasn’t that Mayfield is a great QB (he hasn’t shown that yet) or that he will play better or worse this year (although I’m guessing he’ll improve). I was just saying that last year wasn’t a curve-breaker and there’s no reason to expect him to “regress”.
As for dropping or retaining outlier years, it’s a grey area… especially tricky with such a small sample. That’s why I showed it both ways.
Hope Baker and the Bucs both show up big this year!
August 27th, 2024 at 11:00 pm
Forgot to say: I’m fuzzy on QBR. Wouldn’t surprise me if I’m using it wrong here.
August 28th, 2024 at 5:40 am
Stop it.
Last year when Baker seemed to be more worried about Mikes streak than hitting the open man our team suffered. Lets forget all that nonsense right now please. I think Mike himself would prefer winning another Lombardi.
Go Bucs!