Doubling Down Against The Bucs
August 14th, 2024
Dissed. Again.
Either follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN doesn’t learn from his mistakes, or he will be a prophet.
The general if not accurate maxim in the NFL is if you don’t have a quarterback, you don’t have a prayer. Barnwell, who traffics in statistical graffiti, is like most stat geeks. He does not like Baker Mayfield.
So if one is a non-believer in Mayfield, then one also thinks the Bucs don’t have a quarterback. So Joe can understand that person’s logic in thinking the Bucs won’t be much.
Barnwell typed a column this week for the four-letter where he ranked each 2023 playoff team. Last year of the 14 playoff teams, Billy had the Bucs ranked No. 14. And look at what they did.
It seems Billy doesn’t learn from his mistakes. So where does he have the Bucs ranked this year of the 14 playoff teams from 2023? No. 12.
Basically, Billy says there isn’t much of a difference between the Dixie Chicks, the slimy Saints and the Bucs. And like most stat geeks, Billy seems to think Kirk Cousins is all that and fully ignores a 36-year old quarterback trying to bounce back from a blown Achilles.
Full credit to Baker Mayfield & Co. for exceeding my expectations [in 2023], but let’s also be realistic about where they were. They finished with the same record as the 9-8 Saints, who beat them handily when they had a chance to clinch the division at home in Week 17. They were two games ahead of the Falcons, who had a clear problem at quarterback and upgraded by signing Kirk Cousins and using a top-10 pick on Michael Penix Jr. …
I’m not sure there’s a huge gap between any of these teams heading into 2024. The biggest difference between the three might be their schedule; by virtue of winning the division last season, the Bucs have to play the Lions and 49ers, while the others in the NFC South avoid the first-place teams from the NFC North and West. And while acknowledging that this is certainly the weaker conference, I’m not sure any of these teams are strong enough to land a wild-card berth, something I feel more confident about in the case of every NFC team ahead of Tampa Bay on this list.
Attention Jason Licht: Here’s a receipt.
Joe thinks Billy is being somewhat objective. He’s using the old Bill Parcells saying, “You are what your record says you are.” And that’s fair.
It just seems so many folks think the only team that added a player to their roster was Atlanta with Cousins (who the Bucs beat in September before he was injured).
Maybe Joe was blind drunk all last year, but didn’t Jordan Whitehead play for the Jets in 2023? So isn’t signing him an addition?
Enjoy Today’s New Ira Kaufman Podcast! Ira Kaufman Talks Rachaad White Watch, Preseason Game Fallout & Fantasizing, Changing National Landscape, And More
August 14th, 2024 at 9:05 am
Circle jerk logic, they all get together and say the same thing. That is how you know the lazy ones from the ones that do their homework.
August 14th, 2024 at 9:10 am
Would love to see Ray J packed with fans waving the foot long receipts that they receive from CVS, PetSmart, wherever. Go Bucs!
August 14th, 2024 at 9:13 am
You know what they say about opinions? No one thought much of Brad Johnson before the 2002 season either. Granted the talent on the rest of the team did their part and more. But it’s really just about distributing the ball efficiently.
August 14th, 2024 at 9:19 am
I am waiting on the “we should trade for hassan reddick” post. know its coming and i am here for it.
August 14th, 2024 at 9:25 am
Joe’s going to use that! đ
August 14th, 2024 at 9:45 am
There’s alot of truth in this article, but it seems like part of our fanbase feels like we should be talked about like we went 12-5 or something.
We did get beat handily by the Saints in week 17 turning the ball over 4 times, unfortunately Bowles didn’t call the timeouts fast enough to save enough clock to close the 10 point gap on the scoreboard(lol). Also, Chris Godwin caught his 2nd(and last of the season) TD pass that game which was 9 weeks after catching his first at the midway point of the season.
Say what you want about them being a poverty franchise(which they are) the Saints finished allowing 19.2 ppg on defense just like we did, but ranked 10th in scoring averaging 23.6 ppg on offense which is 8 slots higher than where our offense finished.
We split 2 games with ATL last season with a combined score of Buc 42 ATL 41.
We split 2 games with NO last season with a combined score of Bucs 39 NO 31.
That’s not indicative of there being some gulf between us and the rest of the NFC south. They talk about Cousins, because his play has been the most consistent over his career than the other 3 QBs he came to compete against in this division.
Winning this division isn’t a given, and trying to stand on winning it 3 years straight is that complacency BA was talking about not allowing to corrupt team after the SB going into 2021 campaign.
August 14th, 2024 at 10:16 am
We are stuck with Bakefield for a couple years anyway. he is the key.
August 14th, 2024 at 10:18 am
That was a very reasonable assessment. Playing a first place schedule is much tougher assignment. The Bucs must beat the Lions, not the Forever Rebuilding Bears. They have to beat the 49ers, not the Cardinals.
August 14th, 2024 at 10:19 am
The general if not accurate maxim in the NFL is if you donât have a quarterback, you donât have a prayer.
the Bucs were blown out in the first round against the Cowboys 31-14 but hey we made the playoffs with Brady. Heâs right though we had no shot!
August 14th, 2024 at 10:24 am
I mean heâs not totally wrong. We barely won the NFC South last year and looked absolutely pathetic in those final 2 games vs divisional opponents (though we came on strong in the playoffs).
That said, I would disagree about not being much different from the Saints, all theyâve done is get older. Falcons⌠who knows? QB still a question there, plus a whole new coaching staffâŚ
August 14th, 2024 at 10:33 am
The NFC East is the weaker conference
Saints have to play Packers and Browns
Falcons definitely have a more favorable schedule- which is why it is imperative the Bucs beat them twice this year.
August 14th, 2024 at 10:36 am
lol. Your record is a static value. Why not investigate trends? Didnât we start 3-7 and end up 9-8?! 6-1 at the tail end with a new QB and OC. Doh
August 14th, 2024 at 10:52 am
Someone should tell Barnwell the Bucs had the first place schedule for a few years now. So, no the Saints and Falcons did not play the same caliber of teams as the Bucs. Maybe Simone should also tell him teams play division foes a lot better and harder than none division, you know being familiar with your opponents and all.
August 14th, 2024 at 10:54 am
Why is it so difficult to comprehend that the Bucs going 9-8 in probably the worst division in football IS NOT impressive. Add to the fact that in the playoffs the DBs can’t catch a cold and Baker choked. What about this team screams NFC championship or Superbowl?
There’s a lot to improve with this team. Run game, scoring points consistently, pass rush to name a few. Rankings don’t matter. Just focus on getting better and win. The Bucs can’t count on other teams in the division being terrible again. And even when they were the Bucs barely pulled it off.
Just win baby!
August 14th, 2024 at 10:54 am
We live or die with BM6, and I for one have always lived to the fullest!!! This year the Bucs will too! LFG!!!
August 14th, 2024 at 11:05 am
Why did my last comment get moderated and deleted?
August 14th, 2024 at 11:05 am
Thatâs a good post Dude. I am one of the ones acting like we were 3 games better than the Falcons and Saints. Hereâs whyâŚ
– we had the 1st place schedule last year
– saints are just as old and cap strapped as they were last year. Now they have OL ? and Derek Carr is inspiring less confidence than Baker.
– in week 17 Bucs already owned the tie breaker, poor form to not clinch it right there and play a better game but some guys already thought it was in the bag with Panthers up next, guaranteed.
– Falcons DL got worse. No Campbell, Jarrett off major injury, 3rd rounder Brice gone for season.
-Both these teams are installing new systems so no leg up on Bucs there
– By all accounts, Bucs have upgraded their OL, RB room, WR room, and Secondary
I have a hundred reasons why I think the Bucs are clearly the cream of this crop. Some of them are extremely biased. I would be more worried about the complacency aspect if the Bucs were getting national media respect. Instead they gotta go prove it again, they know they are close to being a championship team and I donât know if they will get a score away from the NFCC game this year but their chances should be better this year than last, and I will run with that hype.
August 14th, 2024 at 11:15 am
The Bucs are pretty darned good, with some Pro Bowl vets mixed in with some promising rookies and second year players. We’ll win the division in spite of Baker Mayfield. With a decent QB we could go all the way. I wrote this all last season and it still holds true; Baker is mediocre and is holding this team down”.
August 14th, 2024 at 11:25 am
Joe gives up. Why?
August 14th, 2024 at 11:33 am
The thing that Barndoor misses is, the Bucs former overrated and overpromoted inspirational cheerleader is now plodding along as the Panthies head coich. We have who looks to be a fiery and real OC, someone who gets pissed off and doesnât like mistakes.
If the offense can grow and average 25ppg, 12 wins is achievable.
LFG
August 14th, 2024 at 11:39 am
đđhe said they added penix yep they blew the 10th overall pick on a QB. Dummies
August 14th, 2024 at 11:42 am
THE BIGGEST NFL LIE = YOU NEED A QB
Did you see Moneyball? MLB operated with groupthink that star players produced wins. Moneyball looks at MLB objectively. It worked! The NFL is in groupthink with QBs. In truth, they are giving money to the wrong players. 20% of the cap is allocated to QBs when it’s skill players and defense that wins championships.
Super Bowl winning QBs of the last 20 years:
Mahommes (3)
Brady (7)
P Manning (2)
E Manning (2)
Rothlesberger (2)
Brees (1)
Rogers (1)
Stafford (1)
Foles (1)
9 QBs in the last 20 years. Only Rogers and Mahomes have been the highest paid QBs (but not when they won). Look Closer: Brady, P Manning, Brees, Stafford, Foles (5 of 9) won Super Bowls as free agents. These veteran QBs played for teams for less money. This allowed the team to build an awesome defense and arm the QB with Pro Bowl skill players. In many cases, the QB wasn’t the MVP of their Super Bowls.
IT MAY SURPRISE YOU WHO GETS THIS …
Jason Licht and Sean McVay. They have vet QBs. They load up on skill players. They build stingy defenses. They have the last two NFC Super Bowls. The Bucs have the longest playoff streak in the NFC because they field the most complete teams.
WHO DOESN’T GET THIS …
The media and losing teams, especially AFC teams. They see Mahomes and think the QB is the recipe for success. Anyone who thought TB12 was the reason they won, overlooked the fact he always played for less money so they could have a great defense.
August 14th, 2024 at 12:15 pm
The Falcons made a big buildup in taking Cousins who has never won a SB and has only won one playoff. Plus just coming back from an injury. Then surprise surprise they drafted Penix. So I am guessing that all that hype on Cousins changed quickly. He didn’t even know they were drafting Penix. Cousins is still a wild card and overrated. Barnwell is one of many that will be very disappointed with the outcome of the Falcons. I like Kirk Cousins. He seems like a great guy. But all this publicity is way over the top. I saw that they are already talking MVP. Sports media needs to stop the madness.
Well said – SlyPirate! Right on point about Brady too. He always took less money for a better defense.
August 14th, 2024 at 12:16 pm
@Sly. 19 of those 20 Superbowls were won by great to outstanding QBs. Baker is very mediocre. What’s your point?
August 14th, 2024 at 1:47 pm
A lot of this will boil down to who has the right read on Baker: is he coming into his own with a strengthened team, or regressing from a peak year? I think it’s the former, so I see the Bucs having a great season. Time will tell…
August 14th, 2024 at 3:04 pm
Dude … ‘We did get beat handily by the Saints in week 17 turning the ball over 4 times.’
Bucs lost that 2nd meeting 23-13 because WE turned the ball over FOUR times, while Saints turned it over ZERO times (in reality, we should’ve lost by more than that considering our TO Differential was MINUS 4).
We beat the Saints in the 1st meeting last year 26-9 because THEY turned the ball over THREE times to our ONE (our PLUS 2 TO Differential was much more better).
Todd Bowles gets it; TURNOVERS ARE DEADLY. In our 9 wins last season, the Bucs had 18 takeaways to only 4 giveaways (a PLUS 14 TO Differential). In our 8 losses last season, Bucs had 8 takeaways to 14 giveaways (a MINUS 6 TO Differential).
Similar thing happened in the playoffs. We beat the Eagles 32-9 and neither team had a turnover. But we lost to the Lions 31-23 largely because we gave the ball away TWICE to their ZERO giveaways (Lions only scored 3 points off our 2 turnovers, but those giveaways killed 2 of our drives).
Bucs only had 18 giveaways last season … 1 per game average … which is quite good (we ranked 6th in the NFL). But it’s when those 18 happened that’s the killer (14 of the 18 happened in our 8 losses). And almost all of those losses were to more physical teams. Gotta toughen up if we’re gonna beat the big boys.
August 14th, 2024 at 3:28 pm
@Defense Rules⌠I think the Bucs did try to do just that. Get meatier and tougher. Hopefully accomplished on the OL, in the secondary Whitehead > Neal ⌠Smith > Izien ⌠Britt > White. Really just need the DL to be better vs the pass and continue their run stuffing ways.
August 14th, 2024 at 3:33 pm
Barnwell is another jocksniffer that I don’t even watch… I fast forward thru his segments.
August 14th, 2024 at 3:36 pm
>>>19 of those 20 Superbowls were won by great to outstanding QBs. Baker is very mediocre. Whatâs your point?
I dunno if I’d rank Eli Manning as “great”. His only claim to greatness is that he won two Superbowls. Literally everything else about him is pretty mid. His ANY/A and TD/INT ratios were straight up awful in 2007, the first time they won the Superbowl. He literally led the league in INTs at 20.
Also, Sly’s numbers aren’t accurate, He actually left out Joe Flacco, another mid QB who won the Superbowl. Russel Wilson also got left off. He at least WAS great with the Seahawks, thought less so with the Broncos.
Overall 4/20 of the past 20 SBs have been won by QBs I would say are decent, rather than great. And even Peyton’s 2nd Superbowl was more to the defense than him. Manning was pretty terrible as a QB that last season with Denver. That would get us to 5/20. 25% chance isn’t nothing.
August 14th, 2024 at 4:03 pm
SlyPirate. I agree with your last 2 points but your 1st statement is proved wrong in your own assessment. With the exception of Foles, those are all likely hall of famers. Stafford and Eli may not be 1st ballot, but I bet you they get in. I get the money piece too (although Mahomes won last year right, with huge contract, without a #1 receiver and ok ground game). The trend still seems to show that you need an exceptional QB regardless of pay. That being said, it still doesnât mean you canât win a SB with a lower level QB. Rules have changed, but Brad Johnson, Joe Flacco and Trent Dilfer come to mind. I think itâs just easier to win it all when you have a QB that can make up for other, within team weaknesses.
August 14th, 2024 at 4:19 pm
Defense Rules Says:
August 14th, 2024 at 3:04 pm
Dude ⌠âWe did get beat handily by the Saints in week 17 turning the ball over 4 times.â
Bucs lost that 2nd meeting 23-13 because WE turned the ball over FOUR times, while Saints turned it over ZERO times (in reality, we shouldâve lost by more than that considering our TO Differential was MINUS 4).
We beat the Saints in the 1st meeting last year 26-9 because THEY turned the ball over THREE times to our ONE (our PLUS 2 TO Differential was much more better).
————
The Bucs lost the home game to the Saints because Mayfield had, perhaps, his worst game of the season, and was completely terrible.
As for the first game, keep in mind that’s the game where Baker mostly played well but also threw the INT at the goalline which kept the game much closer than it should have been. But Carr in that game literally couldn’t throw the ball more than about 7 yards down the field. That’s the game where Kamara had 13 catches for 33 yards. That’s a classic game where the Saints paid Carr so much money they couldn’t afford to bench him, because if Winston comes in and plays well – now they got a QB controversy.
Regardless, I would not anticipate another situation where the opposing QB can’t get the ball more than 5 yard down the field. I don’t have the Saints sweeping the Bucs, but I think they’ll likely split. Of course, as we all know by now, the Bucs two SB years have come when they got swept by the Saints in the regular season, so even if the Bucs did lose to the Saints a couple of times, it doesn’t have to be a bad thing.
Just as an aside, that 2nd Saints game is why QBR is the vastly superior way to look at a QB’s performance. Despite being terrible, Baker’s Passer Rating for the game was 91.6 – meanwhile his QBR was 19.8 rating. The QBR matched what you saw on the field, not the ridiculous passer rating that rewarded the late garbage time stats when the game was already over.
August 14th, 2024 at 5:17 pm
>>>Just as an aside, that 2nd Saints game is why QBR is the vastly superior way to look at a QBâs performance. Despite being terrible, Bakerâs Passer Rating for the game was 91.6 â meanwhile his QBR was 19.8 rating. The QBR matched what you saw on the field, not the ridiculous passer rating that rewarded the late garbage time stats when the game was already over.
QBR claims Baker played better in the playoff game against the Lions, where he threw 3 TDs, two picks–including, as you love to remind people, the one that ended the game–than he did in the playoff game against the Eagles, where he threw 3TDs, no picks, had two additional touchdowns dropped by his receivers, and the Bucs won by 20+ points.
QBR is garbage. Passer rating at least has a formula, and if there were mitigating factors in the game, like lots of yards during garbage time, it’s easy enough to adjust for that when determining if the QB had a good game. QBR is a black box whose formula has never been released, and whose results are often contrary to what plainly happened if you watch the game. But sure, take Danny Dimes over Tom Brady in 2022, and see how far you get.
August 14th, 2024 at 6:13 pm
You have to look at all the data to get a good âfeelâ of how a QB is performing, but at the end of the day football is football. 4 of 8 drives ending in a turnover and 2 more ending in punts canât be saved by pointing at QBR or Passer rating.
People will argue, there were only 10 INTs thrown grand scheme of things thatâs not bad, but if youâre a team that also struggled scoring points early and 7 of those 10 picks were in the 1st half, guess what? Itâs probably part of the problem as to why you arenât scoring more and even when youâre not turning the ball over, youâre punting?
Whether or not this team can consistently string together scoring drives is going to decided how far we go, because at the very least our defense needs to be as good this season as they were last season. Our offense on the other hand needs to be ALOT more consistent than it was last year. There no one offensive stat/metric that proves that wrong. Blaming Dave Canales for stuff he wasnât responsible for, like running the actual plays we all react to isnât going to ease minds ether.
August 14th, 2024 at 6:40 pm
As u talk bout money baker is 1 of the lower paid QB’s now as o I think he was thinking about this team instead of hitting free agency I know 3 teams that wud have bid for him including ATL they didn’t sign cousin until baker signed with BUCS so I think the BUCS r in a good spot this league is paying backup qb 10’s of millions a year with no expectations we got a bargain in this environment
August 14th, 2024 at 7:17 pm
CallTheSaltTruck – The QBR was correct about the Eagles vs Lions games. Baker was not that good in the Eagles game as people remember because of the final score. He kept missing guys and not getting points for the entire middle section of the game. Also QBR doesn’t reward the same as passer rating when you throw a 5 yard pass to Palmer who takes it 50 yards on his own. He played well in both games, but was a bit better in the Detroit game – before of course choking when it mattered.
August 15th, 2024 at 1:06 am
>>>The QBR was correct about the Eagles vs Lions games. Baker was not that good in the Eagles game as people remember because of the final score. He kept missing guys and not getting points for the entire middle section of the game. Also QBR doesnât reward the same as passer rating when you throw a 5 yard pass to Palmer who takes it 50 yards on his own. He played well in both games, but was a bit better in the Detroit game â before of course choking when it mattered.
QBR has him graded exactly the same for the 2nd Panther’s game–where he was playing visibly hurt, could barely throw the ball, and got 137 yards total on 4.3 yards per YPC–as he did during the playoffs Eagles game, where again, 3 TDs, 337 yards. Yes the Eagles had trouble tackling, but Baker was money and only missed 5 TDs because of drops by the WRs. Meanwhile, Passer rating passes the eye test, rating the Panthers game at 72, and the Eagles game at 119.
Again see Brady vs Dimes 2022, or Minshew vs Stroud 2023. I know which QB I’m taking in those competitions, and it isn’t the one that QBR likes.