Conor Orr: Bucs Will Win NFC South
August 28th, 2024
Four-peat.
This time last year, a guy who to the best of Joe’s knowledge hasn’t stepped foot in One Buc Palace for years (if ever) enraged the entire building by predicting the Tom Brady-less Bucs would win but two games in the regular season.
Some Bucs damn near hit the ceiling from that article. They took that prediction from long-time SI.com scribe Conor Orr as a personal affront.
Even after winning the NFC South for a third-straight year and pounding the Eagles in the playoffs and damn near beating the Lions on the road in the divisional round, the two-win prediction struck a nerve in Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht. So much so that Licht needled Orr about it when he crossed paths with Orr in February at the Indiana Convention Center in downtown Indianapolis at the combine.
Orr, seemingly, has come around and has picked the Bucs to win the NFC South again for a four-peat.
Perhaps Orr’s change of heart was from doing a regular podcast with his SI.com colleague Albert Breer, who recently picked the Bucs to win the division and said folks dismissing the team aren’t paying attention.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9–8
I had versions of this in my head where the Saints eked out a division championship and a version where the Atlanta Falcons simply walked away with it. But after going through all the schedules individually and building in for the fact that the Falcons have Raheem Morris readjusting to life as a head coach and Zac Robinson in his first year as a play-caller (same for new Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak), I walked away comfortable with picking the Buccaneers to win the NFC South. It’s not just because I’m afraid of their general manager either; I really like the back end of the Buccaneers’ schedule which, I think, will help them stockpile some critical wins.You’ll notice I have some big wins and also some head-scratching losses here. I like the Commanders in Week 1 because, if you’ll notice a theme, there isn’t really a playbook on them yet. Todd Bowles is good at making halftime adjustments, but what if the Buccaneers are simply not in a position to contain Washington’s new-look offense? That leads into a massive Week 2 victory over the Lions, which is tailor-made for someone like Baker Mayfield to rally the team into. The pattern goes on, with the Buccaneers losing in Week 3 to an inferior Broncos team before repeating their playoff victory over the Eagles the following week. It’s my way of getting at this idea that they can handle the toughest teams, while also wondering whether they’re consistent enough on a week-to-week basis to run away with the division.
Orr makes an excellent point about the back end of the schedule. The Bucs, after the bye, only play two decent teams.
Joe will got out on a limb and guess the road game in Los Angeles against the Chargers will be a tougher out than the road game in North Texas against the Cowboys.
Orr believes the Bucs will finish 9-8 again and host another playoff game on the wild card.
In Joe’s mind, that’s a fair prediction.
August 28th, 2024 at 10:40 am
Yeah, don’t think the Bucs are going to lose to Washington. He says we don’t have a playbook on their offense, but he is counting out our new offense which Washington doesn’t have a playbook on either. Kind of a stupid comment on Orr’s part, yet again.
August 28th, 2024 at 10:47 am
This guy has been notoriously wrong, don’t give much stock into people who have egg all over their face. Especially the Washington game.
August 28th, 2024 at 10:57 am
would have been nice to trade for some pass rush help. Also, i’m surprised we did’nt pick up anyone who was cut.
August 28th, 2024 at 11:01 am
Everyone has an opinion. They all are not right or wrong. That’s why the games are actually played. I prefer to let the team’s actual game results speak for them. New season, new start, currently the Bucs are in a 32 team tie with the best record in the NFL. Let the season begin.
August 28th, 2024 at 11:01 am
Yeah, I just don’t see them losing to the Commandos in Week 1 at home. And, conventional wisdom would give the Week 2 contest to the Lions playing at home. Overall the 9-8 prediction seems reasonable, although I would swap some of the Ws and Ls.
August 28th, 2024 at 11:08 am
Not sure I like getting a thumbs up to win the division from a guy who projected us to win only 2 games last year. Seems like a guy who has a tendency to be astonishingly wrong IMO. Would’ve felt a lot better if he’d predicted us to win 3 games this year.
Personally I’ll stick with 10-7 and a playoff slot.
August 28th, 2024 at 11:08 am
Orr has us losing to Bo Nix / Denver Broncos AT HOME in week 3 as well…
🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
August 28th, 2024 at 11:17 am
12-5!!!!!
The commanders will come out the second half of the game waving a white flag and asking for spiked Gatorade!
LFG!!!
August 28th, 2024 at 11:40 am
The Bucs will win more than 9 games, starting with Washington.
August 28th, 2024 at 11:48 am
10-7 but i hope for more wins. We need a game changer a edge.
August 28th, 2024 at 11:49 am
If Todd manages to let a rookie QB wipe around his defense, it’s because he’s playing his infamous soft zone bust defense and telegraphing his blitzes. Which Todd is prone to do.
But – Todd is 2-0 in Buccaneer openers as HC, and when last seen as a HC, Dan Quinn was getting sodomized by Tom Brady in the SB comeback, then humiliated thereafter.
If the Bucs lose this opener against WFT, at home, with this personnel…..all bets are off.
August 28th, 2024 at 11:52 am
With no significant injuries, if the Bucs turn in another 9-8 season and lose to a handful of rookie QBs then Bowles is gone. There’s way too much talent on that roster not to win 11 games this year.
August 28th, 2024 at 12:00 pm
He has 3 teams with winning records in NFC North and 2 of them with 12 wins. Lol. No way that happens. As if their only loses will come against division opponents. Strange.
August 28th, 2024 at 12:03 pm
It is wild to me that early on, he has us losing to Washington and Denver, but winning against the Lions and Eagles. Like… I feel like he picked the one way this definitely WON’T go, lol. He also has us beating the Ravens and losing to the Giants. Did he have some kind of upset quota?
I feel 9-8 isn’t the worst prediction overall, though I personally have us at 11 wins, and feel like we could definitely go higher.
August 28th, 2024 at 12:11 pm
I don’t know that we agree on the specific wins & losses, but 9-8 is my exact forecast for this season. If we can win the ones we’re supposed to and steal a possession or two for at least one against one of the playoff teams we face from last season…could be 10-7. A 4th straight 1st place schedule is what this team is built to perform to – but it’s still going to require consistency, which is our next step in our development.
Orr has been wrong, but that likey due to not paying much attention to the NFC South. I think that may have changed with his interaction with Licht, and partnering with Brett – maybe caused him to focus more on this.
Nice article.
August 28th, 2024 at 12:12 pm
When the first Putt is way short usually the next goes screaming off the green.
Losses to WAS and DEN but wins against DET, PHI, and BAL?
4 Putt.
August 28th, 2024 at 12:32 pm
It would be really fun to see Licht just whup Connor Orr’s azz.
August 28th, 2024 at 12:41 pm
I see zero reason to think we’d win less than 10
August 28th, 2024 at 12:51 pm
I don’t see Bucs losing to Commanders in Wk1. And losing back to back road games to ATL and NO in Wks 5 & 6 would be a surprise… Bucs likely go 1-1 in those two games. I think his 9-8 record prediction is low, as It assumes the Bucs have made no improvement in the talent and strength of team from last year. I think the Bucs are improved, and I think Coen will prove to be a much more capable OC than Canales. Bucs still have a few ?s and weaknesses, but fewer than last year. I think 10-7 record is the lower end of prediction, a 12-5 finish would not shock me. I don’t think Bucs will do better than 12 wins. ATL will have to improve by a lot to take Div title from Bucs, they were 2 games behind Bucs last year. NO didn’t make significant improvements, imo, and although they’ll lurk around, they’ll likely finish 9-8 like last year.
August 28th, 2024 at 12:53 pm
When you prove yourself an idiot by making idiotic predictions, you do not redeem yourself by making more idiotic predictions. Sorry but are these “analysts” & “journalists” just simply playing roulette with their thoughts and ideas? You have to have a record of being correct every once in a while. At least Peter King was that blind squirrel sometimes.
August 28th, 2024 at 1:01 pm
The main point I took from this is that I 100% agree we will win the division at 9-8. Some of his predictions remind me when using the philosophy of doing a NCAA College basketball bracket. You know there will be upsets but just guessing when and where? Losing to Redskins and Giants, while BEATING the Ravens, Lions and Eagles? We will be 9-8 but the Chargers, Cowboys, Raiders and Broncos can go either way also depending on some factors. Are we overlooking a road game against the Chargers before the Cowboys for example? One thing is certain and is gonna be fun, hosting another playoff game. I think it will be against the Packers.
August 28th, 2024 at 1:05 pm
10-11 Wins and the NFCS Title.
They won’t lose to WAS. Detroit will be a battle.
August 28th, 2024 at 1:07 pm
Another rollercoaster season is certainly possible and really most likely. Considering the resume of the HC and QB plus the questions at pass rush, corner, run game and offensive cohesion there could be growing pains.
We’ll see next weekend.
August 28th, 2024 at 1:10 pm
Losses to the Commanders, Broncos and Giants is a bold take. If that happens, I bet we don’t make the playoffs.
August 28th, 2024 at 1:12 pm
Nope dont buy his prediction.
August 28th, 2024 at 1:23 pm
In what way does Washington’s offense scare the Bucs? I don’t care how many starts in college Daniels has, he’s still fairly raw, their RBs are underwhelming, they kinda have no TE, their line is atrocious, & they just traded their second best receiver.
August 28th, 2024 at 1:35 pm
Anyone one see the uniform Washington wore last weekend? Wearing that in Tampa is sure to cook somebody’s goose…..literally
August 28th, 2024 at 1:43 pm
Tom Brady won it with a losing record so it ain’t that big a deal. I certainly don’t need another NFC South Champs t-shirt as my season souvenir.
August 28th, 2024 at 2:02 pm
As soon as I saw he has us losing to the Commanders week 1 I stopped reading.
August 28th, 2024 at 2:02 pm
As soon as I saw that he had us losing to the Commanders week one I stopped reading
August 28th, 2024 at 2:44 pm
With our new found running game and a great defense I am predicting an undefeated season. Move over Miami!
August 28th, 2024 at 3:02 pm
I think 9-8 is probably the “reasonable GUESS”. I’m the optimist and believe the Bucs and get to double digits like D.R. predicted. In fact I’m not going to be shocked if the Bucs explode and win 11-12…not expecting it but not excluding it as a possibility.
August 28th, 2024 at 3:07 pm
Here’s my updated game by game predictions with current Vegas odds… I have no idea how this ends up but I feel more positive about the team now than I have all offseason… lets see…
W – Week 1: vs. Washington Commanders – Bucs -3.5, O/U 41.5
L – Week 2: at Detroit Lions – Bucs +5.5, O/U 49
W – Week 3: vs. Denver Broncos – Bucs -3.5, O/U 42.5
L – Week 4: vs. Philadelphia Eagles – Bucs +3, O/U 47
L – Week 5: at Atlanta Falcons – Bucs +3, O/U 44.5
L – Week 6: at New Orleans Saints – Bucs +1.5, O/U 42
L – Week 7: vs. Baltimore Ravens – Bucs +4, O/U 44.5
W – Week 8: vs. Atlanta Falcons – Bucs -1, O/U 42.5
L – Week 9: at Kansas City Chiefs – Bucs +7.5, O/U 45.5
L – Week 10: vs. San Francisco 49ers – Bucs +7, O/U 46.5
W – Week 11: at New York Giants – Bucs -1, O/U 44
L – Week 12: at Carolina Panthers – Bucs -1.5, O/U 43
W – Week 13: vs. Las Vegas Raiders – Bucs -3, O/U 44
W – Week 14: at Los Angeles Chargers – Bucs +3, O/U 42.5
L – Week 15: at Dallas Cowboys – Bucs +5.5, O/U 46.5
W – Week 16: vs. Carolina Panthers – Bucs -5.5, O/U 42.5
W – Week 17: vs. New Orleans Saints – Bucs -2.5, O/U 43
Well, I got the Bucs up to 8-9 this time around, and if they go 5-2 down the stretch, that would be good. Amazingly enough, Vegas also has them 8-9 – only games we differ on is I think the Bucs will split with Carolina (Vegas has the Bucs sweeping them), and I think the Bucs will beat the Chargers out west, like they seemingly, randomly do from time to time, despite their overall awful record out west.
If they can get one of those early W’s, in the week 4-7 range where I have them going winless, that could get them a playoff spot if this plays out as I expect.
Regardless, 8-9 is as high as I’ve been on them all offseason.
August 28th, 2024 at 3:17 pm
Joe should do an open thread like gameday but for preseason win loss predictions. I think the Bucs will be a better team, but still 8-9. Improved team with a tougher schedule. I think 2025 could be very interesting though.
August 28th, 2024 at 4:05 pm
I’ve been busy and not able to join in on all this Bucs Fans hand wringing. It doesn’t matter who is on the schedule. All that matters is how good can our team get. I think we may (probably not) lose a few games early. All of our leaders (and we’ve got a bunch of them) feel like we can beat anyone we line up against. That’s a powerful ingredient. This 8 or 9 win crap is just that. We’d have to have devastating injuries. I don’t see that. Rod sees a midseason swoon again. Why? Remember how we finished last year? I do. Our team isn’t one bit intimidated by any team in this league. Within 8 weeks we’ll be the talk of the league. Just watch and learn.
August 28th, 2024 at 4:13 pm
@Kenton Smith
Welcome to #teampositive! Rod is OK if you are on #teamnegative.
I tend to agree with you.
August 28th, 2024 at 5:19 pm
Don’t Fear The Schedule, Embrace It. Explode Into Each Game. Never Let Up, and Have Fun Doing It
August 28th, 2024 at 6:41 pm
Steelers and Browns over Chargers and Jets? Herbert and Rodgers are too good.
Bears over Cowboys? Not likely – Eberflus is still there
August 28th, 2024 at 7:30 pm
I ain’t predicting a certain number. I can see wiggle room for a 10 win season or even better should all go well.
Go Bucs!!!
August 28th, 2024 at 7:44 pm
For those who have a pathetic win loss record for the Bucs at 8~9 for the season….
YOU HAVEN’T BEEN PAYING ATTENTION! A worse win loss with improvements across the board in some Large ways? That is some lousy predicting and your credibility just went out the window. But that’s alright. You’ll get in line like the rest of the lazy predictors and attempt to claim umbrage but most of us know who you are and I see no need to let you slide come time. You must Really like eating crow!
August 28th, 2024 at 8:50 pm
As FANatic I would expect nothing less than seventeen wins. Y’all know, a hardcore fan.
Go Bucs!
August 28th, 2024 at 9:15 pm
I’ll be disappointed in anything less that 11 wins.
On any given Sunday we should be able to beat anybody in the league….if everybody just does their job.
Detroit will tell us a lot but I don’t really expect us to be firing on all cylinders offensively that soon.
Hopefully playing our best ball as the playoffs start rolling.
August 29th, 2024 at 12:13 am
Last year’s team with this year’s schedule, I would say 9-8 was reasonable.
But, if this team stays reasonably healthy? This team looks to be a good bit better than last year’s team.
The offense is better. The OL is surely better. RB sure looks better. WR looks better which is sort of scary. TE even looks a bit better. QB is the same. The OC is new, and the preseason tells you not much, but I like him so far.
The kicker and punter are the same. Special teams coverage skills looks to be better, and the new kickoff rules may be a help for the coverage teams. Return game, who knows?
Defense? A bit better? S is surely better. NB is better. Shipping out Davis is a negative for CB, but it still looks like there is a lot of talent at the position. ILB and OLB are maybe a wash or a bit better?
Overall, surely this is a better team this year. 9-8 should be the floor. 11-6 would be okay for this team with this schedule, but 13-4 should be doable.
August 29th, 2024 at 3:55 am
Rod Munch: I hope you’re 4 games off again, last year you said 5-12, Bucs were 9-8.
August 29th, 2024 at 10:10 am
Joe in Michigan
Thanks for keeping score!
August 29th, 2024 at 7:58 pm
Joe in Michigan Says:
August 29th, 2024 at 3:55 am
Rod Munch: I hope you’re 4 games off again, last year you said 5-12, Bucs were 9-8.
——-
I hope so. I also hope it’s not 4 games off in the wrong direction.
But I was right when the team was 4-7 last year, and the previous year I was 1 win off, and before that I went 8 years getting the record dead-on.
Still, 8-9 is not bad at all – and if I miss by a game and they’re 9-8, that likely gets them in the playoffs. My prediction wasn’t a downer at all, unless you people are insane and just assume you’re getting double digit wins. Again, would love to see it happen, but realistically, with a much improved NFC South, that is incredibly unlikely.
August 29th, 2024 at 8:15 pm
Another 9-8 season is not good enough even if we do win the division no excuses. At least get 10 wins and get to the NFC Championship even if we lose it’s progress from last year.
August 29th, 2024 at 11:28 pm
Oneilbuc Says:
August 29th, 2024 at 8:15 pm
Another 9-8 season is not good enough even if we do win the division no excuses. At least get 10 wins and get to the NFC Championship even if we lose it’s progress from last year.
————
This is a team that was 4-7 last year before getting a historic streak of good luck where they faced, week after week, teams on losing streaks. The only team that wasn’t on a losing streak that they faced was the Saints – who destroyed the Bucs in that second game (and of course Detroit, who also won).
The idea that you’re demanding double digit wins as if it’s expected is truly delusional thinking. I’d love to see it happen – but that’s way different than expecting it.