Albert Breer Picks Bucs To Win NFC South
August 13th, 2024
One less receipt for Bucs GM Jason Licht.
So not all national media thinks the Bucs are destined to regress significantly this season because they weren’t very good last season and, you know, Baker Mayfield.
There are a few with sound logic out there, including Mike Florio, the curator and creator of ProFootballTalk.com.
Albert Breer, the top Sports Illustrated insider who talks to many NFL movers and shakers, is firmly picking the Bucs to win the NFC South. He made the claim on the latest MMQB NFL Podcast.
“I think more highly of Baker Mayfield than most people,” Breer said, adding that he’s very bullish on Tristan Wirfs and the Bucs’ development of offensive linemen.
Breer also has a strong level of confidence in a Todd Bowles defense. He said the Bucs are less reliant on old veterans than the Saints and the Tampa Bay roster holds up under scrutiny.
“There aren’t a ton of holes,” Breer said.
For those who care about the perception of the Bucs, Breer’s take could be significant. He’s a regular on many national shows and without question will be spreading the word as he’s asked to make his season picks to large audiences over the next few weeks.
Co-host Connor Orr, a known non-believer in Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager Jason Licht who picked the Bucs to win two games last year, prodded and poked Breer about his pick of the Bucs.
Orr wanted to know if Breer would bet his house on it. Breer didn’t waver.
“I don’t know how that’s a wild take,” Breer said.
Joe applauds Breer’s perspective. Thinking the Bucs will win their fourth consecutive division crown is a rational decision — versus expecting the Falcons defense to magically fix itself while injured and old Kirk Cousins turns the Atlanta passing game into the high-flying 2017 Bucs’ attack.
August 13th, 2024 at 3:29 pm
At +325, I threw a bunch on the Bucs to win the nfc south too. It’s worth the gamble imho.
August 13th, 2024 at 3:33 pm
Atlanta Falcons have holes on their defense and they know it. They will give up points. Bucs may give up yards but not points… I think their defensive backfield will be great this year and years to come.
August 13th, 2024 at 3:36 pm
Hell yeah, we’ll take the division for a 4th straight year. What’s really impressing me with the 2024 team is depth. And it seems like we’ve got it for most position groups. The only glaring hole at this point, as Joe is prone to point out (time and time again), is edge rusher.
August 13th, 2024 at 3:36 pm
Your options are …
1. Saints – 2nd oldest team in the NFL
2. Falcons – Losing HC, rookie OC/DCs, 35yo QB with an Achilles, suspect defense
3. Panthers – Rookie HC, 1 year as an OC, guiding the anemic Panthers offense
4. Bucs – 3x Defending NFC Champions with 10 Super Bowl winners
Tough call.
August 13th, 2024 at 3:50 pm
Falcons need an Edge Rusher badly. Reading up on the FalconsWire, they say they are targeting Reddick or Judon for a trade.
They are plugging holes with players that are unsigned right now. Looking forward to Buc’s offense facing their defense.
August 13th, 2024 at 3:53 pm
11-6 I predict and win the division by at least 2 games……122 L seats 19 and 20
August 13th, 2024 at 3:56 pm
See yall week 1 when we torch the Commando’s
August 13th, 2024 at 4:06 pm
Lots of optimism for a team that was punked by the saints with the playoffs on the line, barely beat the panthers the next week and split with the desmond rider lead falcons. I’m excited for the season, but every young guy has to improve from last year. Go bucs!
August 13th, 2024 at 4:08 pm
“There aren’t a ton of holes,” Breer said.
———-
I don’t know if I agree with that. At LB the depth chart is paper thin – and outside of David, every one else is very much a question. When you got 4 LBs, that’s a lot of defense to not really know how it will play out. Also corner is very risky where any injuries could alone sink the defense.
With that said, as much as I dislike ultra conservative and boring Todd Bowles as head coach, I have always liked him as a DC — and we’ll see what he does on defense in the regular season. I got a feeling we’re going to see a ton of soft zone and watching other teams with 12 and 14 play scoring drives, but I’ll be more than happy to be wrong. I expect big things from Kancey, and if he takes a leap this year, that alone could cover for issues at LB and even corner.
On offense it all comes down to Baker. Is he the QB he was in 2021 and 2022 when he was literally the worst QB in football over that span (yes, a worse QBR than Zack Wilson), or was he the middling starter we got last year in a career year (18th QBR, 20th in offensive scoring). He doesn’t need to be good, he just needs to not be a bad starter, if he can stay in that 18th range for QBR without too much of a fall off, then the offense should be just good enough to keep Bucs in games, assuming the defense comes through.
Also the running game should likely be improved, but I very much worry that comes only at the cost of offensive production as Todd will look to run out the clock every time he gets a 3-point lead in the 2nd quarter.
I’m not really sold on this team, but nowhere as down on them as last year at this time. Also, personally, I prefer to be surprised in a good way as opposed to surprised in a bad way. There’s no way any true lifelong Bucs fan can be any other way, in my opinion.
August 13th, 2024 at 4:13 pm
Maybe I’m drinking the Bucs Kool aid too much this season, but I’ve been very pleased with every move made in the office season, draft and free agency (Randy Gregory being the exception). I’m looking forward to a better season than last year. I will be genuinely surprised if the team takes a step backwards. I’m not usually upbeat about the team heading into the season with the exception of the Brady years and Sapp/Brooks years.
August 13th, 2024 at 4:14 pm
Can’t disagree much as I was at that miserable (but a W) game in Charlotte, I live in NC, but I think this team, providing staying healthy, can go as far as they want too, LETS GOOOOO BUCS
August 13th, 2024 at 4:38 pm
If the defense can keep offenses under 17.5 ppg and the offense improves to 24 points per game bucs repeat as champions and make a strong playoff run.
August 13th, 2024 at 4:46 pm
I see the FalCONS starting 0-3 and 1-4 after we kick their asses
August 13th, 2024 at 4:52 pm
Did anyone see Luke Haggard was the highest graded Buc from the weekend (94) ? Followed by Isaac, Jose Ramirez, Barton, and Klein (all 84+ grades)? Do these grades mean anything at all?
August 13th, 2024 at 5:01 pm
So glad to hear Albert Breer giving Bucs kudos! Good stuff.
August 13th, 2024 at 5:11 pm
Ultimately it does not matter, but the Bucs have significantly strengthened their two weakest positions from last year (Safety and Interior OL) and from the early look of it Jason Licht may have hit another home run draft.
Falcons should be much improved at the most important position in team sports, but the Bucs look like they should be a very good football team this year.
August 13th, 2024 at 5:14 pm
At least one of these dummies are paying attention. Dam. This is the best team in the south n honestly don’t even think it’s that close
August 13th, 2024 at 5:57 pm
Rod
Could you help us all and try to up your game. Your prejudices are so predictable they’re boring and beneath your fundamental intellect and knowledge of the game. EVERYTIME you struggle to find embarrassing stats or “facts” to demean Baker you EMBARRASSS YOURSELF! You posted
“Is he the QB he was in 2021 and 2022 when he was literally the worst QB in football over that span (yes, a worse QBR than Zack Wilson), or was he the middling starter we got last year in a career year (18th QBR, 20th in offensive scoring). He doesn’t need to be good, he just needs to not be a bad”
He was the freaking runner up in the NFL Rookie of the Year award to Saquon Barkely. Mayfield helped lead the Browns to finish the season at 7–8–1, their BEST RECORD SINCE 2007!!! He must have really SUCKED that year eh Rod?
2 years later…In the Wild Card Round against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mayfield went 21 of 34 for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns during the 48–37 win, leading the Browns to their first playoff victory since the 1994 season, the year before Mayfield was born. It was also the Browns’ first playoff road victory in 51 years, way back in 1969. In the Divisional Round of the playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs, Mayfield threw for 204 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception during the 22–17 loss. He was ranked 71st among NFL players as selected by the PLAYERS! Oh the horrors what a crappy QB.
So here’s an honest question Rod. I’m not even trying to insult you because I can easily give you props for your effort to stay very informed, and either you read a LOT of Bucs history or perhaps YOU need to lighten up on the OLD MAN jokes. Bottom line I respect your knowledge and passion.
This is why I am literally CONFOUNDED that you ALWAYS ignore FACTS when it comes to Baker. Why the prejudice?
And it IS prejudice not fact Rod. I’m just curious what would motivate anybody to dig so deep into stats as to pull up QBR ratings from his two worst years?
Seriously?
As for his weaknesses, I see them as well just not with the jaundiced eye of Traskers and others here. I think Baker plays sometimes with too much swagger and abandon and it leads to injuries. And that is his weakness as well. He’s such a competitor he won’t take a seat when he should…a LARGE reason for his 2-3 years of suckitude.
This has also led to posts bemoaning how badly the Bucs looked against Carolina. I do not disagree, but it’s not Baker’s talent or game that cost the Bucs, they played him HURT!!! I blame that on Baker, Bowles, Canales anybody who believed he should start. They could have very easily tried Trask and if he didn’t cut it bring Baker in the 2nd half. There a gift for you to take yet ANOTHER shot at Bowles as well.
August 13th, 2024 at 6:02 pm
The only hole the Bucs have now is on the Edge. Trade for Reddick and the Bucs will be complete. Simple really. lol.
August 13th, 2024 at 6:19 pm
Lots of great comments, and I’m seeing a much more optimistic JBF crowd than I did last year at this time. That’s encouraging.
I tend to agree with Breer that ‘There aren’t a ton of holes’. Oh we are slim in a couple of position groups (ILB & TE especially IMO), but we’re not bankrupt either. It is concerning however if either LVD or Otton go down for any length of time.
That said, our depth seems to have improved across the board (with those 2 exceptions). The Bucs have been relying heavily on our starters to give us high availability for several years now (starting in 2020 IMO), especially on offense. But with more experienced ‘depth’ comes a lot more flexibility.
For example, the Bucs had 6 guys on offense get over 95% snaps, but only 1 guy on defense (Winfield). We had 9 guys on offense get over 75% snaps, but only 3 guys on defense. Tells me that DC Bowles has now created a defense that’s not just young, but quite ‘seasoned’. And in a long season, that’ll pay huge dividends IMO (and especially in the playoffs).
August 13th, 2024 at 6:32 pm
@stpetebucfan
Thanks for comment!
August 13th, 2024 at 6:39 pm
The Bucs have more holes than most NFC contenders like the Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers, etc.
But the Bucs also have a lot of young talent and depth that could progress and really shore up the Bucs overall roster strength.
By the end of the 2024 season the Bucs roster may be considered in the top five in the NFC if player like Kancey make huge strides.
August 13th, 2024 at 6:51 pm
Rod … Now you’ve done it; you’ve triggered StPete. Baker IS the leader of this offense & you need to broaden your horizons a little bit & cut him some slack. For instance, in Baker’s best year, 2020 (when WE won the Super Bowl), he led the Browns to an 11-5 record & a playoff victory, eventually losing to the SB runner-up Chiefs 22-17. We should be asking the question ‘How’d he do it?’ not bemoaning the fact that he did. What did it take for him to be that successful?
For starters, Baker only threw at a 62.8% completion rate that year and for barely over 3500 passing yards. But he DID throw for 27 TDs against only 8 INTs (significant). Very importantly though, he was supported by a VERY strong running game … Browns ran on over 48% of their offensive plays, for 2374 rushing yards & 21 TDs (at an average of 4.8 YPC). Their offense ranked #14 that year, scoring 408 points … 25.5 PPG average (about 5 PPG BETTER than we did last season). Why? I’d say it’s because of their better running game, but I guess that’s a dirty thought in JBF World.
But beyond that, the Browns were rather unspectacular. Their defense ranked #21 that year, giving up 419 points (26.2 PPG average). Their kicking game was adequate at best (79% FGs Made).
This year’s Bucs’ team SHOULD overall be better than that Browns 2020 team. Our defense SHOULD be better. Our kicking game SHOULD be better. And our offense SHOULD be significantly better than what we fielded last year. IF Baker & the offense can just get us 3-5 more PPG than what we had last year (20.5 PPG average) it SHOULD rank in the Top-10. And IF our defense stays in the Top-10, we SHOULD be able to win the NFC South & be in a position to do some damage in the playoffs. And yes, Baker can lead us there. Come on brother, keep the faith. What happened to TEAM POSITIVE?
August 13th, 2024 at 7:01 pm
Rod picked the Bucs to be 5-12 last year. Is that enough information?
August 13th, 2024 at 7:03 pm
What’s your prediction for this year, Rod?
August 13th, 2024 at 7:07 pm
At this point in the season, if your a Buc fan, you have to be feeling good. The offensive line is looking good, even the depth there. This was the primary reason for the predictable hoffense the past two seasons. That looks to be vastly improved. The running game too ,as a by product. This team will put up enough points for Ws and be able to extend drives as well as run out the clock. What a difference this will be. Seeing iis believing! Stay tuned! 😎
August 13th, 2024 at 7:14 pm
And this is why this site is hands down the best! Excellent writing and excellent comments from the legends here. Nice works bros!
August 13th, 2024 at 7:23 pm
Good stuff, Defense rules. There is no real reason to doubt our Bucs. “On. Paper” we are looking good!
August 13th, 2024 at 7:37 pm
Everyone wants answers Rod. They want the truth!
August 13th, 2024 at 7:52 pm
Bucs had 2 HUGE holes last year—safety and center, (less so at Edge) both have been fixed
August 13th, 2024 at 7:56 pm
The Big Penix looked pretty good the other night! Might end up turning into a great pick & the Cousins signing being nothing but a desperate mess of a move. Baker HAS TO be much more accurate. Period. Especially, on these deep balls… Sounds like he’s still missing them all, miserably. He MUST stay within himself, make good decisions, & protect the dang ball, if we’re going to be any kind of a threat at all, this season.
August 13th, 2024 at 8:05 pm
“on these deep balls… Sounds like he’s still missing them all, miserably.”
@Booger…. You’re basing this on?
August 13th, 2024 at 8:08 pm
These post sites r for short to the point facts these R ,NOT biblical nonsense keep short & sweet I started to fall asleep with these mini books on this site l
August 13th, 2024 at 8:49 pm
Bakersbucs … I have a solution to your dilemma …
DON’T READ THEM. Unless you need help falling asleep of course.
August 13th, 2024 at 8:49 pm
Defer – I chortled at your post. Truly and sincerely, you made me laugh with the “triggered song” reference.
It’s all coming together.
August 13th, 2024 at 8:50 pm
DefR. Not defer – autocorrect really sucks
August 13th, 2024 at 8:52 pm
@ Booger….. on what are you basing your assumption that Baker can’t throw an accurate ball? He threw the long ball very well last year he didn’t even play against the Bengals in the preseason game and not going to play in the next 2 preseason games. So what fo you base your criticism on huh?
August 13th, 2024 at 8:58 pm
Do not fo
August 13th, 2024 at 9:02 pm
@ Booger….. on what are you basing your assumption that Baker can’t throw an accurate ball? He threw the long ball very well last year he didn’t even play against the Bengals in the preseason game and not going to play in the next 2 preseason games. So what are you basing your criticism on? Fiction or fact huh huh?
August 13th, 2024 at 9:05 pm
@ Booger….. on what are you basing your assumption that Baker can’t throw an accurate ball? He threw the long ball very well last year he didn’t even play against the Bengals in the preseason game and not going to play in the next 2 preseason games. So what are you basing your criticism on? Fact or Fiction huh? I’d say you’re dreaming up fiction.
August 13th, 2024 at 9:14 pm
Oh hey, it’s people using QBR, the black box stat which claims that Gardner Minshew was better than CJ Stroud in 2023, and that Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brissett were superior QBs to Tom Brady in 2022. In other words, an utterly useless and broken stat that is worse than nothing, because at least with nothing, you can just trust your own eyeballs.
Baker’s a top 10 QB when he gets a fair shake, our defense has been top 10 in scoring three of the last four seasons. Our O-line and D-line look to have improved, as has our secondary. The same people who doubted us last year will be wrong again this year.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are losing people off their already incredibly depleted defensive line, and have entirely new schemes on offense and defense. Their QB is old and coming off a pretty severe injury to his plant leg.
The Saints are a rolling tire fire that at some point will need to be put out of its misery.
And the Panthers are still at LEAST a year away from being even decent, never mind actually good, and that assumes Bryce Young actually improves.
Bucs take the division, and it’s not really a hard choice.
August 13th, 2024 at 10:18 pm
Just wait and read TheSaltTruck.
Shizzit is biblical.
Thank you.
August 14th, 2024 at 1:16 am
stpetebucfan – It’s pretty simple, I don’t think Baker is a very good quarterback. He’s not very accurate downfield, and he loves to dump the ball off instead of trying to pick up yards. He wasn’t bad last year by any means, and he played the best football of his career (he did – being good as a rookie doesn’t mean much since you’re only compared to other rookies), and even though he played his best ball, he still wasn’t anything special.
The same people who complain constantly about not having an elite C, an elite guard, an elite TE, that want to cut JTS for being a middling LB, those same people think it’s perfectly acceptable to have a middling QB.
I’m not one of those people. Football is entertainment, and Baker is not entertaining – or very good. Again, he had by his standards a very good year last year, which ended with him having an epic collapse in the playoffs with the game on the line.
But I hope he does well, because it means the Bucs will do well, and he might even start to win over his critics like me. I’d love to see it happen.
August 14th, 2024 at 2:16 am
>>>But I hope he does well, because it means the Bucs will do well, and he might even start to win over his critics like me. I’d love to see it happen.
Nah, it’s funnier to watch you be wrong. Keep sipping the haterade, it’s gotten you this far. I’ll keep taking being right to the bank.
August 14th, 2024 at 8:36 am
Have Coen call a few QB rollouts with BM and the first string offense. We’ll see how good they are (scary). I’ve been following this team for a looong time, and I’m excited about this season.
August 14th, 2024 at 10:51 am
Hahah. I knew that would be a trigger… Like taking candy from a little baby LoL. He’s not accurate. Has to be much better if this team has plans on going anywhere, this season.
August 14th, 2024 at 12:56 pm
I’m all in on Merle’s grandson. . .
August 14th, 2024 at 2:53 pm
Having a better offensive coordinator should help Baker. Having a better offensive line should equate to more time of possession. I don’t think the Bucs offense has anywhere to go but up. The addition of more solid young players mixed in with the experience and leadership from Evans, Godwin and Mayfield does give the Bucs an edge in terms of the team sticking together through the ups and downs.
On the defensive side you have to see improvement first because you have to rely on Diaby, Kancey and Braswell to rush the passer and generate pressure. I’m convinced those 3 have to carry the pass rush. The rest of the d-line is meh.
Vea hasn’t been able to be on the field enough to consider him a key to the defense. If he could play entire games and not get tired he’d be a game changer but since the Super Bowl he has been good but not a dominant force to completely disrupt opposing offenses. He is a good solid player but not the player he could have been had he been in better shape his career.