After 10,000 Simulations, Bucs Finish Third In NFC South
August 30th, 2024
Todd Bowles
So the New York Times data gremlins logged overnight hours for TheAthletic.com and ran 10,000 simulations of the 2024 NFL schedule.
The consensus left the Bucs as winners of 7.5 games and finishing third in the NFC South behind the Falcons (9.4 wins) and the slimy Saints (8.2).
On a broader scale, the software ranked the Bucs as the 10th-worst team in the NFL.
On a fun note, the Bucs’ opening-day opponent, the Washington Commandoes, was pegged as the worst team in the league (5.9 wins).
Longtime NFL writer Dan Pompei, now of TheAthletic.com, acknowledges the Bucs data clashes with local perceptions, but he didn’t claim it was offbase, as his colleagues did with other teams.
“Internal expectations and fan expectations are much greater than this. … The Bucs won nine last year, and the general perception is they improved in the offseason with the additions of Jordan Whitehead, Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan. Whether they improve or slide might depend largely on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had a breakout year in 2023 and is adjusting to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has replaced Dave Canales.”
Joe wonders how these computers assess the value of the head coach. It sure seems like Todd Bowles isn’t willing the algorithm wars.
There’s no way the Bucs should be considered a seven-win team.
August 30th, 2024 at 12:32 pm
Last year they had us finishing dead last with either the number 1 pick or at least a top 5.
August 30th, 2024 at 12:36 pm
I did my game by game W/L and got all the way up to 8-9, but finishing the season strong.
But 7.5 wins sounds about right for this team. Again, this team was 4-7 last year before getting just about the luckiest streak of opponents ever – each team they beat down the stretch was in the middle of a losing streak, and the only two teams that weren’t were the Saints and Lions, and both won.
Of course if Baker can be more consistent they can likely find another win and get to 9-8, which would likely get them back into the playoffs – and if they finish the season strong, who knows.
August 30th, 2024 at 12:37 pm
Wow! That is great new!
With this thing called an internet search, I discovered that their prediction last year was for Tampa to win 6.4 games and place fourth in the NFC South.
Moving on up!!!
August 30th, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Ugh so sick of hearing about Atlanta!!! Career loser HC n an old QB coming off a major injury.
August 30th, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Let Atlanta be the front-runner and take the expectations. I just don’t see Kirk Cousins as quite the savior he’s expected to be. Derek Carr hasn’t been able to get it done either. The division is certainly up for grabs. Good health will be a key determining factor.
August 30th, 2024 at 12:41 pm
Well that’s great we don’t even need to pay the season. Spoiler alert. Go BUCS!
August 30th, 2024 at 12:50 pm
It is because Bake sux. He is awful. He stinks. Nobody can win anything with Baker. Pfffft. OK, now go get em Bake!!! 😀
August 30th, 2024 at 12:52 pm
lol. The NY Times is total trash. Why that lying organization is still in business is beyond me. Looking forward for the Bucs to prove them wrong again this year just like last year.
August 30th, 2024 at 12:54 pm
Bucs have a new OC so 7.5 wins
Falcons have a new OC, head coach, AND a QB coming off an injury so 9.4 wins
Do these people ever apply a tiny bit of logic?!
August 30th, 2024 at 12:58 pm
AMI_Chris Says:
Derek Carr hasn’t been able to get it done either.
———
The Saints had the same record as the Bucs last year, and destroyed the Bucs late in the season. The Bucs could have wrapped up a playoff spot that game and instead Baker was terrible and had his worst game of the season.
No idea why people are writing off the Saints. They’re going to be a tough matchup, as always.
August 30th, 2024 at 12:59 pm
Good grief.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:01 pm
toopanca Says:
With this thing called an internet search, I discovered that their prediction last year was for Tampa to win 6.4 games and place fourth in the NFC South.
———-
And the year before that the prediction sites had the Bucs as the odds on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:10 pm
I just don’t get why people need positive affirmation from national media about how many games the Bucs will win. Who cares, it’s settled on the field – and it’s a lot more fun to be the underdog. Nothing beats when a ‘good’ team is supposed to manhandle the Bucs and lose – then you listen to the sports talk of the other city a they cry and whine and demand all the coaches are fired and players are cut and it’s literally week 3 of the season. I love that stuff.
I’m not at all down on this team this year, I think 8 wins would be good for this team, and it means all they need to do is find a win somewhere and they’re in the playoffs. That’s a scrappy, fun team to watch.
What isn’t fun is thinking this is a 12-win team and then watching to slash your wrists when they’re 2-4 to start the season.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:13 pm
Last year’s team against this year’s schedule, I could believe 8-9 or 9-8.
Isn’t this year’s team better at least on offense; at least on the OL; at least in the run game; and, wow, look at WR? And, TE looks to be pretty solid.
QB should have a good year with a better OL, a better run game, and new outstanding possession-plus receiver to go with the speedster at WR3.
A better run game means more time off the clock and and less time for the defense to be scored against. And the strengths of this defense looks to be the safeties and the run defense. Teams should have to throw the ball against this defense, and those safeties will be looking to do three things: prevent big plays, prevent quick scoring drives and take the ball away. Of course, I would like to see a truly terrifying edge rusher. But, at least there is a platoon of guys who can hit it full blast and them come to the sideline to catch their breath.
Surely, with these differences, this team should be good for at least a couple of more wins.
For example, why think that this team will lose against Detroit this year? Philadelphia? It’s not like this team has never beaten Kansas City or the Cowboys. And, San Fran is overdue for an upset. This team should win some of those games against tough teams that are being conceded so many of these predictions.
Staying reasonably healthy, 11-6 should be the floor with 13-4 not unreasonable.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:15 pm
Garbage in garbage out. Anything modelling human behaviour won’t be accurate, impossible to model/predict. This is the why there’s odds.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:18 pm
Nutty. Compare depth charts and it is obvious that the Bucs are the superior team on paper. Anyone favoring other coaches in the South to Bowles is pretty crazy, too. They have to play on the field though, so we’ll see.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:20 pm
Rod Munch is correct.
Fans didn’t know that Marpet would retire or that Jensen’s career would end so abruptly. Sometimes, bad things happen; sometime good things happen. I am enjoy competitive games and competitive teams. This team should compete in every game.
But, I also believe that this team is being underrated. And, I think that this team has a very good chance to exceed expectations; again.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:25 pm
It is bothering me about the Panties. They are rated so low. They SMOKED the Bills in the preseason and were strong against us last year even without having a money-grubbing disloyal poaching HC as they do now. As I predicted, they just captured yet another player of ours. I believe that makes 4. I hope their low ratings don’t do what they did for us last season.
August 30th, 2024 at 1:26 pm
Boge beat me to it
GIGO
There’s a reason that the game has to be played to determine the outcome
August 30th, 2024 at 1:27 pm
We will run the ball more all stats will be down but we should win 10 games this year
August 30th, 2024 at 1:27 pm
Always a game or two that we were supposed to win, and one or two that should have lost and won. always the same overreaction to both. either they are the worst and we need to replace everybody, or we are gonna win the super bowl! Just relax and let it play out…
August 30th, 2024 at 1:35 pm
Jersey Buc- Raheem is not a loser
August 30th, 2024 at 1:55 pm
@Cleanhouse,
Raheem’s career record says otherwise…
August 30th, 2024 at 1:57 pm
It’s a 3 team race for the South, the team that stays the healthiest and their coaching does the best job will win the division.
If the Bucs run game and pass defense doesn’t improve from 2023 YES, they will be a 6 or 7 win team and finish in 3rd.
August 30th, 2024 at 2:06 pm
WHAT’S TRULY HILARIOUS …
Imagine if the Dallas Cowboys won their division for the third time, had the longest playoff streak in the NFC, and were one score away from the NFC Championship. Then, the Cowboys resigned all their stars and beefed up their entire team in the offseason. The Cowboys would be THE TEAM TO BEAT.
Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE would be predicting the Super Bowl for the Cowboys.
Tampa 7 wins and 3rd place in the NFCS.
Wow!
August 30th, 2024 at 2:08 pm
Well honestly it is entirely possible in this division but Bucs fans will tell you highly unlikely. Baker got paid so he better at the very least be what he was last year. I have no worries about the rest of the team
August 30th, 2024 at 2:14 pm
Sly, the cowboys are going to win the SB every year!
August 30th, 2024 at 2:16 pm
I wanna name of an accountability website so that we can see how stupid all of these predictions are. This isn’t magnetic football or a Madden video game. Humans play humans. Humans game plan against other humans. Weather, injuries, etc. all come into play.
Will the team be better than last year? I believe so. Now just get me to Sunday.
August 30th, 2024 at 2:21 pm
Bucs are currently tied for first place and the top seed in the NFC.
August 30th, 2024 at 2:42 pm
My algorithm says their study contained extreme bias against an ex NY team HC. Therefore adjusting this flawed study resutled in an accuracy of 8.7 % , with a reasonable amount of error = to +/- 78%
August 30th, 2024 at 2:44 pm
I think the truth is somewhere between this simulation and the Biucs fans expectations about this team.
I dont believe that we are as bad as many in the national media think we are but i also dont believe that we are as good as many of our fans think we are.
We have a new Offense, the Defense has many unknowns (pass rush and outside CBs). I dont understand the high optimism that we are a 12 win team for example. Maybe we will be maybe not we will see on the field.
Go Bucs
August 30th, 2024 at 2:56 pm
Software can only execute calculations based on criteria human programmers give it, so in this exercise, we’re actually looking at the opinions of clueless humans all over again.
August 30th, 2024 at 3:00 pm
we’ll be saying, “they are, who we thought they were” at the end of the season lol
GO BUCS!!!!
August 30th, 2024 at 3:08 pm
we only lost 4 games by about 10 points. the rest were possession or less. if baker doesn’t regress and our run game and faster start is indeed there…….there is no way I see us less than 10-12 wins. maybe im crazy…but I just feel the more than decent Ws coming.
August 30th, 2024 at 3:53 pm
I’m a bit happier flying under the radar. I predict the NFC Championship game will be Tampa Bay vs. Detroit! The same game I predicted last year. It didn’t happen but close!
August 30th, 2024 at 4:02 pm
I’m a Buc fan, so I hate the Falcons.
I get some of the hype, though. There run game was pretty damn good last year, and the QB situation for them should be better if Cousin stays upright . I believe Judon & Simmons will make the D better.
I think Rah was used as a patsy’s here, at way too young. I think he’ll be much improved this time around.
We’ve still got substantial wholes. Especially on D
My guess is we split with them. We always do.
August 30th, 2024 at 4:03 pm
“Adjusting”? These analysts don’t have their finger on the pulse. Obviously there was an adjustment period, but it’s already happened, and it didn’t take long. I can see issues with ATL possibly adjusting, or still adjusting.
August 30th, 2024 at 4:04 pm
The only way to draw that conclusion is either the assumptions they are putting into the data are wrong (garbage in-garbage out) or the deep analytics think the Bucs were extremely lucky last year. This year’s team is clearly improved especially at positions of weakness last year. It should be objectively a better team.
August 30th, 2024 at 4:41 pm
garbage in, garbage out
data used for the simulation is obviously limited
as the cliche goes, “that’s why they play the games”
Bucs finished strong last year — hopefully we’ll have some momentum to start the season
August 30th, 2024 at 5:29 pm
Every one of them centers around their distrust of Baker. He’s gonna need another good year to shake that stuff off. (Won’t shake ROD, of course…)
August 30th, 2024 at 5:46 pm
All I can say is I hope Joe was wrong when he suggested Baker Mayfield might regress.
To me, he wasn’t a solid quarterback last year. There were too many ups and downs.
But…he seemed to progress in the 4th quarter of the season…and by doing so, he earned the contract he got.
However, I’m under zero delusions this year. Everything hinges on Baker progressing instead of regressing. The way he goes, the Bucs go.
Regardless, barring injury, he will be the starting QB for the entire year, even if he stinks it up. Bowles will not bench him.
August 30th, 2024 at 5:49 pm
the narrative is that the nfc south sucks but it wouldnt surprise me if bucs finished third because the top 3 teams are really good.
August 30th, 2024 at 5:51 pm
Don’t blame the poor model; it’s doing its best! Football must be a an incredibly hard sport to simulate accurately: so many distinct positions, tons of critical play-calling, injuries playing such a large role, low number of scoring events per game, turnovers having such an impact, etc., etc.
August 30th, 2024 at 6:20 pm
This is stupid.
When was the last time the worst team in the league had 6 wins???
August 30th, 2024 at 6:20 pm
@rodmunch
We turned the ball over 4x that day against New Orleans. We were not prepared that’s for sure. White, Godwin, and Palmer all fumbled that day
August 30th, 2024 at 6:24 pm
Correction, just white and Palmer fumbled. Bake had 2 picks. Godwin was our one bright spot of the day.
August 30th, 2024 at 6:33 pm
Junk
August 30th, 2024 at 7:00 pm
Gigo, garbage in garbage out is a basic idea of IT experts. If the input is flawed you will get the same results no matter how many times you run the program.
Of course we fans are “biased”. However, we are closely watching our teams each year.
August 30th, 2024 at 7:10 pm
Rod fails to mention baker got hurt during that saints game. Played very conservative against the panthers the following week while on the mend. Then had a great game against the eagles. I believe baker had a perfect qbr against packers, only guy to do that on the road last year. Get ready to hear contract extension for baker a year early … he’s not going into next year 20 million less than Lawrence…..
August 30th, 2024 at 8:03 pm
Ron Munch you need you own sports page. You takes are spot on. P.S. I love Baker
August 30th, 2024 at 8:07 pm
The Bucs will win 9 or 10 this year again if everyone stays healthy that’s the simulation I run in my head over and over. Take it to the bank but remember if everyone stay healthy.
August 30th, 2024 at 11:19 pm
I wish I would have caught this article earlier. I could have made it easy for all to understand why such crappy and frankly unlikely positive predictions.
It’s all about the past with all computers to predict the future. And that includes the human brain.
It’s simple really and Joe’s been right all along when he said it would take at least
a couple of great or better than average years for drum roll please…… BAKER MAYFIELDS RECORD to improve so that the computer models can improve. It’s ALL about the QB and the computers have been programmed to assess accordingly. Actually it’s fair.
We’re tied to Bakers record are stuck with it. It REALLY IS all about Bakers performances for the next couple of years. It must seem humans have gone in (it seems) and told the computers to ignore Bakers accomplishments. OR DID THEY? I guess he didn’t exactly “light it up” on any consistent bases last year so……. His great games barely keep the team as a whole from absolutely tanking the algorithm…
Plus add in that guy whom I’ve THANKFULLY already forgotten his name who ABSOLUTELY DECIMATED our averages in the secondary single handedly.
Between the 2 incredibly bad years Baker had before he got in with us and barf bag in the secondary….. well is anybody surprised about the computer models????
DON’T BE….. And THAT’S WHY we actuality play the games… Each and every year the averages mean ditilly to some team out there that just didn’t make sense. Kinda hard for the average human to guess. You HAVE TO know what’s coming to make accurate predictions… Anybody watching us says we’ll win it. The rest aren’t watching us at all and have no clue what’s coming.
August 30th, 2024 at 11:27 pm
Actually it looks like reading on through that some have a clue as to why. Best to see it as a blessing that the rest of the league don’t see us coming.
Have faith, faithful. Soon enough your love will be rewarded
August 31st, 2024 at 12:56 am
Garbage in Garbage out! Good thing my PC doesn’t play football!
I have been trying to teach it to catch passes but it keeps dropping the dang ball. Gonna put it on the practice squad though.
Go Bucs!
August 31st, 2024 at 1:00 pm
The computer can’t measure MOXIE lol