Statheads Suggest Bucs Tried To Fit Square Peg Into Round Hole Last Season
August 16th, 2024
Statheads talk Bucs offense.
Very, very interesting analysis of the Bucs by a pair of hardcore stat guys who apparently realize the game of football is not played in a vacuum or on a PC.
Tej Seth, a self-proclaimed football data scientist who has in his Twitter bio “Games are played on the field, not on spreadsheets,” and Shawn Syed, who works for former Dixie Chicks general manager Thomas Dimitroff’s stats outfit Sumer Sports, launched a podcast recently where they take a statistical look at the game without using stupid GD grades.
In their NFC South preview, they stopped just short of calling out former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales for devising a bad running attack.
Seth, not trying to dwell too much on negativity, thought the Bucs had a poor “blocking scheme.” Syed was more direct.
“I don’t think their offensive line was totally meshed [with a downhill run flair] for that specific style,” Syed said. “I think [Liam] Coen will move to a more outside-zone approach.”
Seth also added that a power game running up the middle was not what last year’s offensive line was physically capable of succeeding with at a high rate. That backs up what Todd Bowles told Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht last year — (as Licht detailed on the “Ira Kaufman Podcast“) — that the Bucs had to beef up the interior of the front line.
Now here is something to add credibility to Seth and Syed. This particular episode of their podcast, “Stats and Scheme,” was published last week, Aug. 8. On Monday, Aug. 12, Bucs center Robert Hainsey clearly noted he thought the offense Coen is installing fits the skillsets of the offensive line better than last year’s offense under Canales.
So these two statheads recognized the very problems Bowles and Hainsey tangled with last season.
Rachaad White is not blameless in the run game stinking, Seth came right out and added. He rattled off all kinds of stats that showed the run game stunk and repeated what Joe has mentioned previously, that White’s advanced rushing stats are downright turrible.
Seth also added the Bucs’ passing game is underrated. So if they continue to struggle running the ball, the Bucs should just spread ’em out and win games through the air.
Added Syed, “Baker had a lot of success when they spread it out.”
Defensively, Seth believes the Bucs interior defense will be so good teams simply won’t run on the Bucs. Instead, Seth predicted Bucs opponents will take advantage of a weak edge rush and unproven corners outside of Jamel Dean.
August 16th, 2024 at 9:13 am
Joe … ‘Defensively, Seth believes the Bucs interior defense will be so good, that teams simply won’t run on the Bucs. Instead, Seth predicted Bucs opponents will take advantage of a weak edge rush and unproven corners outside of Jamel Dean.’
Not sure I agree with Seth’s analysis; in fact, he may have it backwards. Our interior DLine is exceptionally strong against the run when Vea is in there. When he’s not (which is close to 40-50% of the time), we’re ‘light’ and the big boy running teams can push us around. As far as a ‘weak edge rush’ goes, I don’t see that at all. Diaby, Braswell, Nelson & JTS are all quite good at playing the run IMO, but they’re still unproven in terms of pass rush. They MAY very well surprise everyone. And our depth at corner is about as good as I’ve seen since the days of Monte Kiffin.
August 16th, 2024 at 9:16 am
Judon to Falcons, wonder why Licht passed on that one? It seems this team can do some damage this year but not having proven Edge Rushers can be its undoing. I guess we will see.
August 16th, 2024 at 9:23 am
Yes, believe it is well documented that Canalas has room to grow as an OC, much less a head coach. I believe as many Coen will be a grat addition for the offense, which is showing in camp and preseason. Hopefully so, as I agree it appears to many from the Bengals game and the practice with the Jags, that the edge rush and corner play will be the team’s weakness and will be exploited y good passing teams. Coach Bowles and the GM staff appear to belive they have a edge sound rush, which thus far has not been seen against the Bengals or Jags. The secondary while addressed in the off season still appears to struggle with the deep ball, see the Bengals game, Jags practice. If so , yes the offense better score a lot of points, to stay in the game.
It appears the HC Bolwes and GM may be a little overconfident in their edge rush personnel, which may be costly.
If the defense gives up a lot of passes to the Jags Sat. What is now only speculation may show it’s head as real. We will see shortly
August 16th, 2024 at 9:33 am
Never saw Joe’s play by play but I read the breakdown from Jags beat reporters. Bucs got torched by the long ball a few times, now that is no pad-no hitting so it is not easy just to say the defense backfield is bad.
August 16th, 2024 at 9:47 am
Until the pass defense improves this team is going no where
August 16th, 2024 at 10:19 am
I agree our OL was outmatched in the middle. We have two great bookend tackles but did not enough brute strength in the middle to stop the opposing DTs.
I don’t care how pitiful our center and guards were last year, Rachaad White should not be running on 1st or 2nd downs. He is awful at reading blocks. I just don’t think he has the instincts to be the primary runner. Reserve him for the pass catching back and the kick returner.
August 16th, 2024 at 10:25 am
And with the first pick of the 2025 draft, the Carolina Panthers select….
August 16th, 2024 at 10:36 am
I like this team. Even with all that ATL did, I’d still take Baker over Cousins, Yaya over Judon, AWJ over Simmons, and Evans over London. ATL is simply an overpaid, watered down version of the Bucs. Bucs are a top 4 team in the NFC.
August 16th, 2024 at 10:38 am
First Name Greatest … ‘Until the pass defense improves this team is going no where’.
Last year’s pass defense ranked #29 in Passing Yardage Allowed yet Bucs finished ranked #7 overall in Points Allowed. Our sacks were still up at 47 last year, but our ‘pressures’ were waaaay down at 136. We’ve added Whitehead, Braswell, McCollum & Britt to the starting lineup (replacing Neal, Shaq, Davis & White) PLUS several other very promising rookies & FAs.
Gut feel is that we’ll still rank in the Top-10 in Points Allowed, and probably still generate around 50 sacks, BUT … we’ll most likely do better in terms of ‘pressures’ & takeaways. We’ve got a fairly opportunistic defense, and TB will have pressure aggressively coming from all over on most every play, not just from our front guys.
August 16th, 2024 at 10:39 am
I am not really expecting much defensively against Jacksonville this weekend. They won’t put anyone critical out on the field. Maybe next week against the Fish. This week watch the running game do well again and lotsa number lookups in the second half. Last weekend I was constantly looking up numbers. Come September I’ll probably be looking up starter’s numbers because I’ll have forgotten their names. LOL.
August 16th, 2024 at 10:45 am
Slypirate:
Yes! We will raise more banners this year 🏴☠️🏴☠️🏴☠️
August 16th, 2024 at 10:48 am
AlabamaBucsFan … ‘Reserve him (Rachaad) for the pass catching back and the kick returner.’
Didn’t know that Rachaad returned kicks. Personally don’t think it’s a good idea to pigeon-hole any RB to just 1 or even 2 roles (kinda tells the defense what to expect?). White is obviously exceptionally good at receiving, and he’s decent at blocking. I think that much of his problem last season focused on (1) our OLine run-blocking; and (2) how he was used (play-calling). Clean those 2 things up & he’ll be up in the 4.0 – 4.2 YPC range IMO. I also like the 2-back sets, especially when both backs have complementary strengths.
August 16th, 2024 at 10:54 am
They’ve given him a spin in practice. The way he weaves through traffic in the pass game he’d likely be a decent return guy.
Generally, teams don’t like using a starting running back as a return man. Too much risk.
August 16th, 2024 at 10:55 am
There were articles on JBF last spring that said that Canales was going to run an outside zone run scheme (Sean Sullivan for one). It was suggested that he worked for an OC that worked for McVay so it would happen. However, it was also apparent that the same Seattle OC had started to draft power OL types in the draft.
Not watching Seattle much, I was not sure.
But this makes more sense than ever. Never felt that Canales was trying to run outside zone schemes and our power dives on 3rd and short and 4th and short were just horrible.
BTW why do all sorts of fans act like they have any idea how good Judon will be this season. Or if the Bucs actually inquired about Judon. Maybe they did but felt that his asking price for a contract was too high.
August 16th, 2024 at 11:01 am
I agree with DR.
Lots of fans want to take shots at the Bucs pass defense but the biggest defensive indicator is points allowed.
August 16th, 2024 at 11:03 am
Can-do Canales was/is a bit of a con-man. Don’t believe me…read his self authored book about how he became known as El Hornāy for his wild and crazy ways. Signing a 6 year deal as head coach of an NFL team might be his biggest heist yet. Mayfield made El Hornāy a pile of money. So many storylines in the NFC South this season and beyond. Raheem & The Falcons, Sewer City Saints ( where Rattler could start sooner than later ) and facing Canales 2x a season before he’s canned ( ales).
August 16th, 2024 at 11:05 am
Canalwater got promoted!!!
ROTFLMAO
Thank you David Tepper. Your insanity is only eclipsed by your incompetence.
Come on Liam Coen, we are ready. Spread and thread!
The Bucs can be an offensive powerhouse, like the BA days. Until Todd figures out how to teach his DBs to know their zone assignments, Bucs are going to have to score a lot of points.
August 16th, 2024 at 11:06 am
I guess I’m not welcomed here anymore, but let’s try this again. We cannot judge our team right now off of the offseason and a preseason game in which our starters did not play. I’m not of the mindset that you need one singular person to be your sack leader. If the team ends the season leading the NFL in sacks and not one player had 10, would you care? All I care about is my team having the W at the end of the game no matter how we got there.
August 16th, 2024 at 11:24 am
Coen is bringing some new life to the Bucs. Already like what we are seeing. He has emotion. Didn’t see that with Canales. Shocked when the Falcons took Judon. But we were surprised with Cousins and Penix too. I just hope that the Panthers don’t make some type of deal for Haason Reddick. It would be great if we could get him.
August 16th, 2024 at 11:34 am
Harold Goodwin convinced Canales that running the same play up the middle with White was a good idea – less chance of losses and White could just stick his head down and try to run like Larry Czonka. White really doesn’t have the vision, and the TE blocking wasn’t great, for wide runs or pitches.
The first day of Jags practices, I watched the Bucs defense. Trevor completed about 3-4 long balls (Winfield was in) – close to 100%, and in red zone 7 on 7 he threw about 7 TD’s on about 10 reps, targeting Zyon on about 3-4 TD’s. The good news was that Braswell got two sacks, probably against the Jags’ #1’s.
The second day I watched the Bucs offense. Baker started slow, throwing a couple very high throws on 10yd passes. The receivers didn’t help much, Palmer had one or two drops. Tucker had a goal line pass go through his hands to the defender that was intercepted for a 100yd pick six. Kam Johnson flashed on a couple catches – very quick. Miller was excellent, making a couple tough catches.
Kickoff returns by Palmer, Bucky, Tucker, and Kam Johnson. Tucker had one very good return. Kick coverage was good. Saw two punts by Camarda, both were crushed with perfect spirals. McLaughlin was 5/6 , 5 perfect kicks with one bad miss.
August 16th, 2024 at 11:49 am
I think that is nice except if the head coach and center both knew it, why not do something then. Kinda like the clock in Detroit, and how many people can call time out?
August 16th, 2024 at 11:56 am
The insistence on running is on Bowles, it was that way with Leftwich and then Canales. Bowles is fascinated with clock management to the point he ignores the obvious ineffectiveness on the field. Maybe this yr is different but Bowles defenses have routinely folded, usually late in the 3rd quarter. The defense is gassed due to the persistent blitzing. He’s never going to air it out, especially with mayfield at QB. Bowles took the ball out of the GOATs hand out of fear of a turnover. He’s honestly not wired to be a HC in the modern era.
August 16th, 2024 at 12:24 pm
I hear you Bobby M. I’ve been taking the Hopium, thinking Todd has evolved.
Defensively, after watching Burrow dissect Todd like a frog, and then reading how Lawrence carved a ham with the starters, I’m resigning to the fact that Todd will allow more passing yards than all but a handful of teams again. Eventually the points will follow, you just can’t keep putting your defenses’s back to the wall and expecting them to pull the miracle. The good QBs and even some of the not so good QBs already have the blueprint to ring up the points on Todd’s pillow soft zones.
It’s up to the offense to score early and often for the Bucs to repeat as division champs.
#25ppg.10-7?
August 16th, 2024 at 12:26 pm
A lot of fans except munch said as much during the season with Dave and his running plays. Even in the stands fans were yelling it as we watched it live in person.
August 16th, 2024 at 12:57 pm
Todd should just sign an agreement with all Bucs opponents, that they just start their drives on the Bucs 30 every series.
That way the defense won’t be nearly as gassed from playing ball control defense.
August 16th, 2024 at 1:21 pm
Exactly. Sticking with the run is one thing but when the interior of the O-Line can’t run block and you consistently ignore running behind Wirfs… Good riddance Canales
August 16th, 2024 at 1:42 pm
If not for Canales, we might not have Barton and Hainsey would still be Bucs favorite center.
August 16th, 2024 at 1:59 pm
Run Defense will be better with addition of Whitehead – opponents will pass vs Bucs and Bowles will feature blitzing schemes with his young draft picks
– going to be fun to watch
August 16th, 2024 at 2:24 pm
Yep, any gamblers out there, watch those early season rushing lines close. Great opportunities are usually out there. Vegas seems to consistently undervalue the Bucs run D early in the season. Will probably undervalue the Bucs run game early this season as well.
August 16th, 2024 at 3:19 pm
What remarkable analysis – that’s why he gets paid the big money.
Let’s see, you have a team and line literally built to pass the ball, that won a Super Bowl passing the ball – and then you have Todd Bowles who thinks it’s 1970 and you win by running up the middle. Only genius level analysis could figure out the mismatch there.
August 16th, 2024 at 4:50 pm
People are piling on Bowles with their critiquing or criticizing as the case may be. I wonder if he is aware of how many fans see him. Probably not.
Go Bucs!
August 16th, 2024 at 6:27 pm
Canales sucked and drove me nuts last year with wasting our receiving core including the TEs and White who can catch the ball. Sure OLine had some weaknesses, but Canales never compensated by opening up the passing game. Ungodly CG14 pretty much was wasted as was a few others. I’m glad Canales is gone.
August 16th, 2024 at 7:47 pm
Question – if Carolina is 1-11, does Tepper pull out the axe on self help boy?
August 16th, 2024 at 10:46 pm
Imagine if JTS was an actual football player.
August 17th, 2024 at 4:00 am
dave canales wasn’t that good…gave good pressers tho, and was fit as a fiddle…and got the gig off that…
he’s in too deep in carolina…
he’s gonna sink like the titanic over there with his little makeshift qb
August 17th, 2024 at 4:00 am
cantalones post game pressers should be a good watch all season long this year
August 17th, 2024 at 5:16 am
LOL
After the fact analysis is almost always spot on. The stat geeks can now rejoice and go to Vegas and win millions without worry.
Wow!
Go Bucs!
August 17th, 2024 at 7:09 am
You win Super Bowls with people that have personalities but sometimes people love control. 💯👍💯