Starting Fast Isn’t A Cliché
July 8th, 2024
Key stat.
Too many times from 2009-2015, in the early years of The Lost Decade, Joe and most other Bucs fans heard a lot about “starting fast.”
Problem was, the Bucs rarely did. And this was likely reflected in their often brutal win-loss record.
And of course, Joe has made a big deal of how the Bucs didn’t score a touchdown on their opening drive last year, which is outrageous. Still, the Bucs damn near made it to the NFC title game. Impressive for being impotent early in games.
Noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp pointed out Sunday that 64 percent of the games over the past 10 seasons were won by teams that scored first. That also includes field goals.
So while hearing about fast starts got real old and maybe some are tired of Joe pointing out how the Bucs never scored a touchdown on their opening drives, it’s important as hell.
Teams that score first have a major edge.
Take care of this, Liam Coen.
teams win 64% of games they score first
…AND lose 36% when allowing opponent to score first over the last 10 yrs
# of games a team scored first last 2 yrs:
23 – BAL, PHI
22 – CLE, SF, DET
21 – DAL
20 – LAC
19 – KC, JAX, LV
18 – CHI, CIN, MIA
17 – BUF, TB, PIT, TEN, DEN
16 -…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) July 7, 2024
July 8th, 2024 at 1:42 am
Same thing with first blow in a fight. Advantage.
July 8th, 2024 at 2:56 am
Todd knows that scoring early and more often is the key to success. Having pass defenders who knew their assignments would be a bonus.
July 8th, 2024 at 4:21 am
Wow Joe, haven’t seen the phrase ‘The Lost Decade’ in awhile (hard to forget Raheem, Schiano, Lovie & Dirk though, and having only 2 winning years in that whole decade). Tough times.
One of the best indicators of a good season IMO is Points Differential. Teams that score more points than they allow on the season generally (but not always) have a winning season. Came across an interesting chart that analyzed NFL teams over the 10-year 2012-2021 period using that criteria.
No surprise that the Patriots were head-and-shoulders over everyone else in that period in terms of Points Differential (Scored – Allowed) with a +1428. Seahawks were 2nd with a +940, the Chiefs were 3rd with +769, the Ravens were 4th with +681 and the Saints were 5th with +605. What did they all have in common in that 10-year period? Coaching staff stability (Belicheck, Carroll, Reid, Harbaugh & Payton) as well as some pretty good QBs over most of that period (Brady, Wilson, Mahomes, Jackson & Brees).
Also no surprise though that the Bucs were in the negative at #21 on the list with a -140 Points Differential. But actually what brought us way up on the list was getting Bruce Arians (we were +304 points for his 2019-2021 stint here). So if looking at our ‘Lost Decade’ of 2009-2018, we were actually -784 Points Differential which would’ve put us in 29th place on the list. The Browns were at -844, the Jets at -1053, and the Jaguars at -1117 Points Differential. Kinda sad but not unexpected huh.
July 8th, 2024 at 6:20 am
With you on this one Joe! Is Todd paying attention? Coen?
Yes we have been slow sarting for awhile now. But last year it was like we didn’t want to score early!
Go Bucs!
July 8th, 2024 at 6:31 am
MOMENTUM IS SO IMPORTANT DURING A FOOTBALL GAME..TO SCORE 1ST ( ON OFFENSE, DEFENSE OR SPECIAL TEAMS, GIVES THAT TEAM THE ADDED ADRENALINE THEY NEED TO “KEEP THE PETAL TO THE METAL & TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS..
July 8th, 2024 at 8:24 am
With those Odds it’s a wonder teams defer when they win the coin toss. By doing so it pretty much cuts their chance of winning in half.
57% of the teams don’t make the Playoffs so it’s probably more of a case where there are more bad teams than good and that’s how it shakes out.
Brady made a career out of scoring on the last drive.
July 8th, 2024 at 8:41 am
Funny thing is, the two teams at the top of this list with the most wins play Marty Ball with ridiculously athletic QBs and both just doubled down on that philosophy. Ravens went and signed Derrick Henry and the Eagles added Saquon Barkely to their RB room, something really demoralizing about being able to run the ball down an opponents throat at-will and playing good D on the other side of it.
It’s still a proven formula to win football games, just all teams aren’t built to succeed at it. Steelers to a degree play the same style.
July 8th, 2024 at 8:59 am
Teams love to defer #1 because the chance of driving 80 yards for the Score is low and #2 is part of the field position game. An early 3 & out and you have the ball immediately around the 50-yard line. Odds are way higher scoring from midfield. Although the Bucs struggled to get that early stop on downs
July 8th, 2024 at 9:48 am
@Bucnjim
#3 Getting the ball first in the 2nd half is probably just as, if not more important than receiving the ball first at the beginning of the game. Puts your offense in position given the teams performance to seal the victory or mount a comeback dependent on how well your team played in the first half. That’s usually always a good position to be in the last half of the game.
July 8th, 2024 at 11:44 am
I sure hope it doesn’t take long to adjust to the new offensive scheme because our 1st 10 games are brutal and we must come out of them 5-5 to have a realistic chance of finishing at least 10-7.
July 8th, 2024 at 2:55 pm
Bucnjim Says:
July 8th, 2024 at 8:59 am
Teams love to defer #1 because the chance of driving 80 yards for the Score is low and #2 is part of the field position game. An early 3 & out and you have the ball immediately around the 50-yard line. Odds are way higher scoring from midfield. Although the Bucs struggled to get that early stop on downs
Also it usually works out that times the deferring gets a possession at the end of the half, a possession to start the 3rd QTR and possibly a 14 point run. Can get a so so team back in the game or can bury a Bad team, and begin burning the clock the final 25 minutes or so.