Chris Godwin And His Statistical Dip
July 22nd, 2024
Trend or outlier?
Very interesting data mined on Chris Godwin and his 2023 season.
Just looking at the numbers the gang at Sharp Football Analysis dug up on 28-year-old Godwin, the Pro Bowl No. 2 Bucs receiver, it makes Joe wonder if Father Time is catching up.
Think about it: Seldom will you find a wide receiver who is 30 and still dominant. Yeah, Mike Evans is, and that’s why he’s going to Canton. Davante Adams is still very good, 103 catches and 1,144 yards last year.
OK, Joe will give you Cheetah Hill. Keenan Allen rebounded very well last season, as did DeAndre Hopkins but he’s past his prime. Stefon Diggs is on the decline. Cooper Kupp hasn’t been the same since he blew out his knee in 2022.
Last year, Godwin’s numbers dipped, as documented by Sharp Football Analysis.
Godwin had a career-high 23.6% of the team targets, but his 4.9 receptions and 60.2 yards per game were his fewest in each department since 2018.
His two receiving touchdowns were his fewest in a season since his rookie year in 2017. Godwin moved back outside in the offense last season, playing 65.9% of his snaps lined up out wide after rates of 36.8%, 36.8%, and 33.5% the previous three seasons.
That’s not a good combination: the most targets of your career, but career-low numbers in several categories.
Was it because Godwin was uncomfortable playing more outside than at slot? When the Bucs moved Godwin back to slot from the outside for the Packers game in December at Green Bay, Godwin totally blew up. Though he didn’t catch a touchdown pass, Godwin easily had his best game of the season. He looked like the old Godwin on that chilly, rainy, gray day.
If Godwin struggles slightly again in what’s now his contract year, the timing would sure be some savvy forecast work by Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht.
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:20 am
As anyone who was watching could see when Godwin was put back in the slot the whole offense started humming and Coen knows this and he is keeping Godwin in the slot. It was canalwater’s rookie mistake
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:24 am
Dont tell Mariah
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:25 am
It seemed like Godwin had a lot of targets on out routes, without much separation, as an outside receiver. Follow the Green Bay game plan, move Godwin to the slot and target him early. In the red zone, throw quick slants low to him like Brady did.
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:32 am
Right on, Proud.
Plus he was still recovering from injury, mentally if not physically.
Baker, Liam, the Gizzard and Godwin need to look at the tape from 2020 and 2021 to see what proper use of Godwin looks like.
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:42 am
He was also Brady’s favorite target. The dynamic with Baker is completely different
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:49 am
Eh, to be fair to Godwin, I think the completion rate to all our receivers was pretty low last year.
If it wasn’t for R White and Cade Otton, Mayfields completion percentage last year would have been abysmal.
July 22nd, 2024 at 11:23 am
“If it wasn’t for R White and Cade Otton, Mayfields completion percentage last year would have been abysmal.”
This is a fact.
Baker had 2 games where his completion pct was 48% in weeks 12 & 13 with both games being against division rivals.
We still managed to win those games, not saying he’s gotta be Rogers or Brady efficient, but gahlee you can’t be that bad and expecting win
July 22nd, 2024 at 11:31 am
To kind of expand on what unbelievable said, I don’t think Canales was nearly as good at designing and calling plays as he was made out to be. Opposing defenses were always sitting on our plays like they had a bug on Canales’ headset. Yeah, he’s a great QB coach. That’s why Carolina wanted him. Play architect? Not so much.
July 22nd, 2024 at 11:32 am
Another problem was Canalwater letting everyone know he was running up the gut no matter what, so you had defenders pushed up. Maybe not 8 in the box but certainly taking away the intermediate routes Chris thrives on. That and Three Matodors screaming “Ole’ Brandon” and not being able to stop the middle push, contributed to the poor results.
July 22nd, 2024 at 12:15 pm
5 players I’m least concerned about them performing …
1. Wirfs
2. Evans
3. AWJ
4. Godwin
5. LVD
July 22nd, 2024 at 12:19 pm
Godwin will bounce back….good chance another team will outbid us for his clutch catches. I think Licht would be wise to let him go if the rookie shows ability. Godwins style of play makes him super vulnerable to missing games. The wear and tear will continue to show up as he ages and in today’s cap management, tough to pay two WRs +$20 million per year.
July 22nd, 2024 at 12:32 pm
Let the games begin.
July 22nd, 2024 at 1:20 pm
Tampa threw the ball considerably less in 2023 than in previous years. Just compare Brady annual attempted passes to Mayfield attempted. Clearly, Canales’ desire to promote a running game that left a lot of 3rd and 8, limited the number of passes per game. Have a feeling we will see more play action on 1st and 2nd down this year. Baker attempts will be up 20% because Coen won’t be so fixated on running on early downs. In the modern NFL have to be able to run the game after your team is up 14 points. That is when running game really matters to take time of clock and keep the other team off the field. Hope this is Coen’s 2024 approach.
July 22nd, 2024 at 2:00 pm
In 2023 Mayfield had the 9th best passer grade when throwing in under 2.5 Seconds. When throwing after 2.5 seconds he fell way down the Chart.
In a season where it was basically do or die for him I can see why he would be more than happy to follow Canale’s objective to get rid of the ball fast.
Godwin’s production suffered because he was primarily running shorter routes and more than 1/3 of his yards were after the catch.
We’ll see soon enough if Coen adopts Canales proven method of getting success out of his QB or gamble and have him holding the ball longer for deeper throws that could end up in disaster.
July 22nd, 2024 at 2:30 pm
Godwin does tend to take a beating. The guy is an excellent blocker too. I wonder if JMaco or Palmer can block as well as he does.
July 22nd, 2024 at 3:56 pm
Never forget, Godwin got to a pro bowl with a QB who threw 30 INTs in 16 games. Not to be confused with a Jameis Winston appreciation comment, but playing making > play calling when we’re talking about a dip/spike in production.