Pass To Win, Stats Show
July 23rd, 2024
He can hang with NFC QBs.
Coaches determined to establish the run set their teams up to lose. The evidence is overwhelming, a spreadsheeter claims.
Arjun Menon, an analytics employee of the Jets, pulled out his spreadsheets and showed that in the playoffs since 2017, teams more adept at passing win at nearly an 80 percent clip.
For Joe, this may explain why so many national #NFLMedia are so down on the Bucs. They simply do not believe that Baker Mayfield can hang with the better quarterbacks in the league.
But name a star quarterback in the NFC? Jordan Love might be. Joe would like to see him repeat what he did in the last few weeks of the season and the playoffs.
Brock Purdy is good. Matt Stafford was good but Joe’s starting to think Stafford getting beaten to a pulp in Detroit all of those years is catching up with him physically. Dak Prescott? He puts up good numbers. Jared Goff? He’s not bad. But that’s about it.
So why can’t Mayfield hang with these guys in the NFC?
Mayfield went toe-to-toe with Goff in Detroit in the playoffs and Mayfield outdueled Love in Green Bay last December. Mayfield averaged 340-plus yards and 3 touchdowns in the playoffs last season.
Jalen Hurts? Meh. Kirk Cousins, really? Kyler Murray? He’s not the player he was in 2021.
Since 2017 in the playoffs, 86.9% of teams that have had the higher EPA/pass in the game ended up winning the game. In that same time frame, only 58.3% of teams that had the higher EPA/rush in a game ended up winning the game.
You pass to win, regardless of timing in the season
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) February 7, 2024
July 23rd, 2024 at 5:15 am
Baker is currently averaging 2.5TDs per game and 0.75INTs per game in the playoffs. If you cannot win with your QB throwing 2.5TDs per game (he has the highest TDs per playoff game in the league btw) then your QB is not the problem.
July 23rd, 2024 at 5:23 am
Arjun Menon … ‘You pass to win, regardless of timing in the season’.
Aw come on Joe, Menon just used a betting stat created in the 1970s to prove a point you’ve long held. Expected Points Added (EPA) isn’t just dependent on whether a play was a run or a pass. It factors in a multitude of other classifying meta data, such as field position, down & distance, who the QB was, was there play action, etc. Not to mention that almost all NFL teams are structured to favor the pass (as are the rules?). I would certainly hope that teams with the higher EPA/pass would have a higher win probability. If not, something’s bad wrong.
You do whatever it takes to win, regardless of whether it’s a pass or a run. Great teams have enough BALANCE in their offensive attack to keep their opponents guessing. Those who become one-dimensional are much easier to defend.
You mentioned the Packers game. The Bucs’ attack was considerably more BALANCED than the Packers’ attack that game (we rushed 27 times & passed 28 times to their 17 rushes & 39 passes). Neither team was especially good at rushing that day, and BOTH QBs were excellent on the day (Baker completed 78.6% of his passes while Love completed 74.4% of his). Both teams had 1 turnover & we lost the TOP Battle 31-29 minutes. Bucs won because of the Packers’ defense screwed up in the last 16 minutes (1 Packer DPI on a 3rd & 8 Incomplete pass ultimately led to a Bucs’ TD and they gave up another very long TD (52 yds) on a short pass). In those last 16 minutes, Bucs ran 16 times against 5 passes & 1 sack to close out the ballgame. EPA can’t account for the impact of ‘stuff’ like that on the victory or loss.
July 23rd, 2024 at 6:03 am
D F you never cease to amaze me
July 23rd, 2024 at 6:07 am
At the end of the day, seeing is believing, and I am believing what I’m seeing with mayfield at the helm of the ‘USS Bucanneer’.
July 23rd, 2024 at 6:10 am
Jordan Love may be a hold out in their training camps because he is trying to get more money. Baker didn’t go that route and will be even better this season, making a lot less money. Baker is underrated by the media, but not by players and coaches on the Bucs and other teams. They all respect and really admire him. He’s our guy!
July 23rd, 2024 at 7:17 am
But…but…but….54 QBR!
July 23rd, 2024 at 7:25 am
Baker was average in almost all 2023 passing stats and the reason he was even that high is because his 4th quarter passing stats against soft defenses brought his overall average up. This has been well documented.
July 23rd, 2024 at 8:10 am
My one big complaint with Baker last year was he held onto the ball to long at times. I knew about his low passes that get batted at the line ( Chris Sims 2.0) but didn’t know he didn’t know when the was dead and he needed to get out the pocket. It’s one if the big reasons we lost to Indy. I do respect that he is fearless ( or dumb) but you gotta have a eternal clock.
July 23rd, 2024 at 8:21 am
“So why can’t Mayfield hang with these guys in the NFC?”
Dak Prescott has led a top 3-5 scoring offense the last 3 years, is 31-14 over that span of time, has thrown 96 TDs plus 4 TDs on the ground.
Mayfield has only scored 55 pass TDs the last 3 years and ran for 3 score in the same amount of time. Which QB would you take if you absolutely needed a scoring drive?
Jared Goff had a stretch last season where he threw 383 passes w/o throwing an INT which is 3rd best in NFL history behind Tom Brady(399) & record holder Aaron Rodgers(402).
Baker had 2 different 4-game stretched where he threw at least 1 INT last season. Which QB would you take to protect the ball and provide your offense the opportunity to produce on pretty much any rep?
Jordan Love started his first full season and did something Mayfield has yet to do in his career, and that’s pass for >29 TDs and Mayfield has played way more football then that kid. Who has the higher ceiling?
July 23rd, 2024 at 8:50 am
4 teams passed upwards of 63% in 2023 for a combined record of 27-41 in 2023
Bucs passed 59% to Chiefs 60%. One more pass per game would have had Bucs in the Super Bowl? Doubt it.
Throw 10 more times a game and even with Mayfield’s best INT % that’s 3 more interceptions per year at least. Just 1 Pick turned out to be the difference in the Divisional Round. A few more games won by two scores instead of one but lose a close one because of a turnover and miss the Playoff altogether.
Go ahead and push for more passing but I’ll stick with a balanced attack.
Greatest Show on Turf and McVeys First Suoer Bowl both ended in losses to a team that Played Solid Defense and a Balanced Offense that limited mistakes.
Elway had a cannon and a career Passer Rating of 78%. Broncos beat the Packers in the Super Bowl. Elway was 12-22 for 123 yards and 1 INT. Terrell Davis Rushed 30 times for 157 yards and 3 TD’s.
Be careful what you wish for.
July 23rd, 2024 at 9:15 am
You play to your strengths. So far, Todd has not done that on offense. When the Bucs decided to pass, they were strong. The crockery about Mayfield padding his stats in the 4th quarter because the Bucs were behind is so much BS. Maybe in Eagles 1, Lions 1. Two games aren’t going to pad anyone’s stats.
Believe that and you should purchase some land I own at the bottom of the Hillsborough River.
July 23rd, 2024 at 11:53 am
Say what you will about the defense but it should be better this year with the new additions. Todd Bowles is too intelligent to not have learned from past mistakes in game management. Canales, though he offered great potential was very green. Coen’s experience and creativity should benefit the offense as a whole and Baker specifically. An excellent receiving corps with an offense featuring more 3 wide sets and more motion is bound to help. Once Baker gets into a passing rhythm with the receivers and has Otton and White as both fail-safes and primaries if needed this offense should do well. The overall addition of youth and speed is a positive. If Bucky can average 4 or better yards per carry the there is no reason for the Bucs not to have a top 10 or 12 offense. That all sounds great, right ? It is a very bland and generic analysis but is (I believe) accurate. It certainly would get thrown back in my face with some choice words by the editor of a national media site for not being creative or sensational.
So, in an effort to be sensational, if Todd Bowles and Liam Coen can pull it off, we are Super Bowl Bound. GO BUCS !
July 23rd, 2024 at 3:03 pm
@Dude
The answer to your questions regarding Baker vs other NFC QBs (Dak, Goff, Love) is Baker without hesitation for me.
The other guys you mention all had one thing in common = organizational support and stability that greatly enhanced their development. Last year was Bakers floor, we haven’t seen his ceiling yet but we’re going to get glimpses this year if Coen takes the shackles off!
I DO understand the doubters but I’m not one of them. ✌🏼
July 23rd, 2024 at 3:19 pm
Don’t tell Todd Blows you need to pass to win, he still thinks football is played like in the 1980’s
July 23rd, 2024 at 8:47 pm
I’ve been saying it for four years now… The year they won the Super Bowl with Tom Brady was because they passed first, that set up the run game, and then that set up the play action.
Then they went away from it for the last few years.
It is a passing league. You need to set up your run with the pass. All the rules are designed for you to do that.
July 23rd, 2024 at 9:41 pm
Baker is best when he is being baker and running for his life.I think the real test is if baker can perform in the pocket with time vs scrambling. He is a maverick not an iceman. If they play him cool and collect I think his numbers are going to decrease
July 24th, 2024 at 7:59 am
Passing is fun, sells tickets, and attracts tv viewers. The NFL realized this when the AFL rose fast by Throwing the ball. Since then every rule change is designed too encourage passing. The game is rigged. You have to pass and win. Yes, Baker is inconsistent in the regular season. But he is consistently good in the playoffs. In a weak division just qualify and Baker will carry the team.
July 24th, 2024 at 8:05 am
Good stat Farmer. Either the Refs or the Defense robbed Baker in all his playoff game losses.
July 24th, 2024 at 9:06 am
Defense rules we won the green bay game cause Baker had a perfect passer rating that day period I have never seen a loss for any team when qb has a perfect passer rating