Big play production.

Joe likes stats because stats are information. And more information is good.

But stats can be utterly ridiculous, too. White noise. Baseball has been hijacked and overrun by the nerds with their weirdo advanced stats that mean, for the consumer, not a damn thing. If you have to watch a game with a damn glossary in your lap, that’s not entertainment, that’s algebra class!

For the most part, football stats have been lassoed. Advanced stats have been welcome and dragged the game out of its medieval ways. At least for enlightened coaches. The analytics crowd has helped pave the way. That’s a good thing.

Another good thing is, unlike baseball, the football stats crowd hasn’t had a hostile takeover and ruined the game as they have other sports (don’t get Joe started on exit velocity or spin ratio).

Back to football: Two words, if used in relation to stats, make Joe’s mind immediately click out of a website to another page. They are “expected” or “adjusted.” That’s playing numerical hopscotch. If one has to doctor numbers, then you’re playing with numbers to reach a conclusion you’ve already come to, Joe believes.

Fantasy types love the term “EPA.” The acronym begins with “expected.” Nah, that’s magic eight-ball stuff. But if one is to believe in EPA, then you must also be confident Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans are a damn lethal duo (see below).

And, Evans was dangerous with Tom Brady throwing to him.

So what is there to make of “EPA” in this case for regular football fans? Evans has serious big play capability and skills and it’s just a matter of time before he burns a defense.

Most completed Air EPA in a season by a passer/receiver since 2020

(23) Mayfield/Evans: 100.4
(23) Purdy/Aiyuk: 96.1
(20) Allen/Diggs: 85.7
(21) Cousins/Jefferson: 82.4
(20) Wilson/Metcalf: 82.1
(21) Brady/Evans: 82.0
(22) Brady/Evans: 79.6
(20) Brady/Evans: 79.3 pic.twitter.com/ci0RiC6uNT

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 16, 2024