Jarring Pass Defense Numbers
July 22nd, 2024
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
Joe knew the Bucs’ pass defense was bad last year. This chart demonstrates it really struggled.
Below, from noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp, is a breakdown of various pass defense statistics. Ouch.
Joe doesn’t know how to pinpoint the issue but can only guess.
One is personnel. Ryan Neal was simply overwhelmed last year. Bowles eve changed up his defense to compensate for Neal, who is still looking for work with training camps opening this week.
So Jordan Whitehead at safety is a true upgrade for the Bucs.
It didn’t help that Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean were often hurt. Playing backups along with Neal on the field, one can envision why the secondary got lit up.
All the Bucs’ blitzing didn’t help the challenged Bucs seondary, of course, leaving defensive backs on islands. Imagine if the Bucs can ever find an elite pass rusher!
July 22nd, 2024 at 1:01 am
The dweebs will point to the mirage of points allowed, which is unsustainable with this kind of yards allowed. It’s physics. An unsteady state will find equilibrium.
But Todd knows and has solutions, starting with upgrades personnel.
#AsToddEvolves #UncondusedPlayers
July 22nd, 2024 at 2:44 am
If Baker could only have 2 yrs in the same system with ME and CG.
Been his downfall all along. No continuity.
I understand why we are popular to look down on.
Just a Bucs’ life.
July 22nd, 2024 at 2:46 am
If our O gets better it might help Diaby, Kancey and Braswell.
I don’t know
July 22nd, 2024 at 2:57 am
Gotta be tough against the run… 3rd and longs really help
July 22nd, 2024 at 5:27 am
Joe … ‘All the Bucs’ blitzing didn’t help the challenged Bucs secondary, of course, leaving defensive backs on islands. Imagine if the Bucs can ever find an elite pass rusher!’
Love it when you make statements like that Joe (apparently not having an ‘elite pass rusher’ is the root of all evil?). In Todd Bowles world however, blitzing and having an ‘elite pass rusher’ don’t appear to go hand-in-hand. Just look at the Bucs’ blitzing numbers starting in 2019 …
o 2019: 613 blitzes (16 games) … 38.3 blitz/game
o 2020: 542 blitzes (16 games) … 33.9 blitz/game
o 2021: 532 blitzes (17 games) … 31.3 blitz/game
o 2022: 250 blitzes (17 games) … 14.7 blitz/game
o 2023: 341 blitzes (17 games) … 20.1 blitz/game
Back in 2019 Shaq would’ve been considered an elite pass rusher with 19.5 sacks, and yet we blitzed the most (613 times) by far. Plus we had JPP with 8.5 sacks.
Still blitzed a ton (542 times) in 2020, but we still had THREE defenders with reasonably high sack numbers: JPP (9.5), White (9.0) and Shaq (8.0). Somewhat different in 2021 (our best year ever) when only Shaq had big numbers (10 sacks) yet we still blitzed 532 times.
Bowles has cut WAAAY BACK on blitzing these last 2 years (we blitzed more in 2019 than we did in 2022 & 2023 COMBINED). Yet no defender had more than 7.5 sacks in either 2022 or 2023. Apparently no relationship exists in Todd’s mind between having elite pass rushers and blitzing less. Quite the contrary.
Personally I think Bowles is searching for a ‘sweet spot’ compromise between blitzing & not-blitzing (coverage?). He may have found it in blitzing around 20 times per game last year, since our defense had its’ best Points Allowed performance (19.1 PPG) since 2008 under Monte. And when push-comes-to-shove, Points Allowed is the bottom line, not how many times you blitz or how many yards you surrender or how many elite pass rushers you have.
July 22nd, 2024 at 5:34 am
That was last year, time to turn the page. In a couple of days the 2024 Buc defense will take the field. There will be different players starting at many key positions. There will be new competition accross the board. Time to look forward, the past is just that, the past.
July 22nd, 2024 at 6:00 am
Agreed Hodad; I think we’ll see some major changes in this year’s defense. Good chance we’ll have 5 new starters by mid-season at the latest: S (Whitehead), CB (McCollum), Nickel (Tykee Smith), MLB (Britt) & DE/OLB (Braswell). And Todd Bowles (aka, the Mad Scientist?) will continually tweak this defense to take advantage of the strengths that they each show.
July 22nd, 2024 at 7:19 am
You wanna know why our passing yardage is always as bloated as it is?
Because our defense has a reputation for playing the run so well, teams would rather pass the ball around the field all day instead of slamming their heads into that wall. If our run defense remains stout, the majority of the ground that’s gained on us will be through the air.
Skewed stat, because teams have to pass on us because they’re damn sure not running the ball down our throats week in and week out.
July 22nd, 2024 at 7:20 am
Yes. Get that defense to give up even fewer points a game and make up for the lack luster offense that put up 20.4 points a game.
Five teams scored more points and did not make the playoffs with 3 teams being from the NFC and one of those from Bucs Division. Only one team scored fewer and made the Playoffs and that was Pittsburgh.
Without a true running threat Bucs will continue to struggle in the Red Zone and will only have one path to the Playoff as 8-9 or 9-8 will not get a Wild card spot in 2024.
July 22nd, 2024 at 7:46 am
DR blowing Joe up with the facts!
Ouchie.
😀
July 22nd, 2024 at 7:52 am
The D tends to have a few games a year where they get roasted or play horrible compared to most their games. We also tended to give up too many big broken coverage plays that lead to a bad yardage ranking. In the red zone we couldn’t be exposed in the same way -hence the much better points ranking.
Last year I’d say these games were the most unacceptable:
CJ Stroud – 470 passing yards
Desmond Ridder both games – 347 passing yards and then 250. That guy only threw 250+ 5 times last year and we were 2 of those 5 games.
If we just played those 3 games to the NFL averages those QB’s were hitting (like even 270 yards to Stroud and maybe ~200 to Ridder each game), then our pass D rank is like 19 vs 29.
July 22nd, 2024 at 8:26 am
Dude … ‘Skewed stat, because teams have to pass on us because they’re damn sure not running the ball down our throats week in and week out.’
Ding Ding Ding; thanks Dude, good to see that someone sees what Todd Bowles is trying to achieve here. If folks looked at our defensive performance since 2019 when Todd arrived, they’d see his priorities clear as a bell …
o 2019: Total yards Allowed: 344 YPG (#29) – Pass Yards Allowed: 270 YPG (#30) – Rush Yards Allowed: 74 YPG (#1)
o 2020: Total yards Allowed: 327 YPG (#6) – Pass Yards Allowed: 247 YPG (#21) – Rush Yards Allowed: 80 YPG (#1)
o 2021: Total yards Allowed: 331 YPG (#13) – Pass Yards Allowed: 239 YPG (#21) – Rush Yards Allowed: 92 YPG (#3)
o 2022: Total yards Allowed: 324 YPG (#9) – Pass Yards Allowed: 204 YPG (#9) – Rush Yards Allowed: 121 YPG (#15)
o 2023: Total yards Allowed: 344 YPG (#23) – Pass Yards Allowed: 249 YPG (#29) – Rush Yards Allowed: 95 YPG (#5)
The performance of Todd’s defense has been amazingly consistent (Total Yards Allowed all in the 324-344 YPG range), even though our records over those years have varied considerably (13-4 all the way to 7-9), as have his tactics AND
the talent of the players in his defense. IMO he doesn’t get nearly enough respect for the awesome job that he’s done with this defense.
And BTW, Todd appears to have changed tactics considerably in 2022 (pass defense #9 but rush defense #15) … and ended up with a losing season. He apparently went back to ‘his old ways’ in 2023 (pass defense #30 but run defense #5), very similar to what we posted in 2019 when he took over (and guys were just learning his system?). Defense had some huge ‘challenges’ last year (several rookies, Ryan Neal, Devin White, injuries, etc) but Todd’s defense only allowed 325 points for a #7 ranking despite all that. And yet so many whine about giving up too many passing yards (249 YPG in 2023 BTW was the same as we allowed in 2020, our Super Bowl year).
July 22nd, 2024 at 9:37 am
“If folks looked at our defensive performance since 2019 when Todd arrived, they’d see his priorities clear as a bell …”
-Discourage the run game.
-Keep the passing game in front of the defense
-Apply(or at least attempt) to apply copious amounts of pressure from any/everywhere
-Bait opposing QBs in to making mistakes
-Get the offense back onto the field a-sap
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:11 am
Dude … Nailed it. Now if Coen can get this offense back into the Top-10 (like we were with Brady in 2020 & 2021) this team would be really dangerous in the playoffs. Here’s hoping (sorry for using the bad word Joe).
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:18 am
It looks like we’re in agreement. Adding something else, @Dude rightly says “-Keep the passing game in front of the defense” and that’s why Bowles played his Charmin-soft zone in the middle of the field (combined with protecting Neal).
Playing soft in the middle of the field, Bowles’ needs to look himself in the face when he talks about the offense not giving his defense time to rest – his soft pass defense gave up too many first downs and possession time in the middle of the field.
This year, with Whitehead back, will Bowles play the CB’s closer to the WRs? We lost 5 INT’s with CD3, D-White, and Shaq leaving, can Whitehead make up that? (4 picks last year). Can Dean and Zyon make ONE pick this year?
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:21 am
Todd’s new priorities are
– Score more points especially early
– Allow fewer points than you score
#AsToddEvolves11-6NoConfusedPlayers
July 22nd, 2024 at 10:47 am
“This year, with Whitehead back, will Bowles play the CB’s closer to the WRs?”
Our cover principles are the most complex part of the defense to be 100% honest and probably why Bowles talks up communication so much from the LBs back to the secondary. Given a particular concept, we’ve got coverages that’ll look like zone to the naked eye in real time, but it’s really a bracket concept where 2 defenders trade off on a target through the receivers route progression.
Idk why fans have this bizarre obsession with press man as if its’ a cureall, but if you’re alright with actually leaving your guys on an island or running the risk of WRs running by them with passes sailing over your CBs head then that’s what press-man opens you up to.
Could be in the minority, but I like bend but dont break defense, I dont care about that 37 yards pass that got you to our 39 yard line if it doesn’t = points at the end of the drive.
July 22nd, 2024 at 11:06 am
Dude … I appreciate the bend don’t break defense too, as long as it results in fewer Points Allowed. We’d all love to believe that we have All-Pros at every position, but that’s not the case. OCs are masters at finding the weak links and ‘culling the herd’ (ask Ryan Neal?).
Todd seems to be especially adept at getting the best 11 guys on the field and getting them to play together within his system. Just like in any defense though, the longer guys play together, the better they get at communicating & anticipating how other guys will react in various situations.
July 22nd, 2024 at 11:14 am
“Just like in any defense though, the longer guys play together, the better they get at communicating & anticipating how other guys will react in various situations”
Agreed, I’d also add that going into year 6 in the same system, we’ve got guys in the locker room that are so familiar with the scheme they can serve as extensions of the staff when the guys are out in the grass and getting eachother on their marks.
You could almost say we’ve got a pipeline going on the defensive side of the ball. At least I think we do and w/o it you don’t get Chris Izien as a UDFA starting in your season opener and being in position to make some pretty big plays in his first NFL regular season game.
July 22nd, 2024 at 1:34 pm
Dude has it right. Bend don’t break becomes bend over if you stay at that well for too long.
July 22nd, 2024 at 3:57 pm
I know we gave up a ton of yards, but usually, we didn’t do too bad in scoring defense. Replacing Neal and White should help at least a little.