Touchdowns, Not Field Goals
June 23rd, 2024
More touchdowns, please.
At first these stats didn’t add up. But then Joe did more digging and may have found the culprit.
Handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp put out a Twitter documenting how many drives each team had last year that ended in either a turnover or a punt.
The Bucs were in the middle of the pack at No. 15. They had 101 drives that ended in either a turnover or a punt. Did that drag down the scoring? Perhaps.
Yet the Bucs ranked No. 20 in the NFL in scoring. So Joe isn’t sure one stat related to the other.
Then Joe decided to do a bit of research on field goals. Did the Bucs attempt too many field goals that would hold back the scoring? Perhaps. The Bucs were No. 8 in the league with made field goals (29).
Curiously, the Bucs were No. 20 in field goal attempts (31). So the Bucs were 20th in both points scored and field goal attempts. A connection? Doesn’t appear to be.
Joe isn’t sure any of these stats suggest any sort of outcome except field goals, maybe. The Bucs were No. 8 in field goals made yet were No. 20 in points scored. Those two stats may be connected.
Perhaps if the Bucs try harder for six points instead of three, they won’t be in the bottom half of the league in points scored?
# of drives ending in a punt or turnover
68 – DAL
69
70
71
72
73
74
75 – SF
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84 – BUF, GB
85
86 – PHI
87
88 – LAR
89
90 – SEA
91 – BAL
92 – MIA
93
94 – KC, DET
95
96
97
98 – ARI
99 – NO
100 – IND
101 – TB
102 – CHI
103 – MIN, CIN
104 – TEN
105 – JAX, HOU,…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 1, 2024
June 23rd, 2024 at 1:19 am
Indications point to Todd recognizing he needs to win games by scoring points, not just keeping the other team from scoring.
Start games by scoring a touchdown. Get in the red zone and score a few touchdowns. Run the ball effectively, not incessantly.
This is a welcomed development.
#AsToddEvolves
June 23rd, 2024 at 1:59 am
BUT… BUT… BUT BAKER HAS MOXIE!!!
So ridiculous how no one wants to criticize Baker’s actual “when the games mattered most” production, or more like lack thereof. He put up so many stinker first halves it’s not even funny.
Dude was bottom half of the league for QBR and other ratings.
Yet many Bucs fans think this guy is elite. LOLZ
June 23rd, 2024 at 2:20 am
Meanwhile, Trashk to the Stupid uses fantasy as the criterion to overrule the countless professionals who have all concurred that the college success has not, is not, and will not translate to the professional game.
The people paid to evaluate players and make decisions regarding depth chart, who are always a few steps from the pink slip, have seen and decided.
Poor pathetic fantasizers will always be able to have their point about not seeing what Trashk can do. Because the deciders have decided that you never will.
Because he sucks. Glennonesque.
June 23rd, 2024 at 3:39 am
What kind of mess is this article?
Only part that made any sense at all is the chart provided…. which shows that the Bucs were about 10 failed drives short of being a decent offense…..
Those extra 45 points or whatever would have meant at least 2 more wins most likely.
June 23rd, 2024 at 3:46 am
Umm yeah….
As the late great Bill Russell once said on the air.
“I think that the team who wins this game will be the team who scores the most points” He was joking…I think…
Go Bucs!
June 23rd, 2024 at 4:18 am
Dave Pear … ‘Start games by scoring a touchdown.’
You’re starting to scare me Dave; you have an uncanny grasp of the obvious. Kinda think that every NFL coach would love to start the game by scoring a TD on their 1st drive. How often did it happen last year? For the Bucs – 0 times. For our opponents – 3 times (they won 2 of those).
June 23rd, 2024 at 4:33 am
Joe I love it when you talk football because you get me curious. Looking at last season …
o The team that won the coin toss deferred EVERY SINGLE TIME. Bucs won 6 and deferred (we were 3W-3L); opponents won 11 and deferred (we were 6W-5L in those games). Kinda of a push there.
o On each team’s 1st drive: Bucs – 0 TDs, 6 FGs, 9 Punts, 1 Out-on-downs, 1 INT. Opponents – 3 TDs, 5 FGs, 5 Punts, 2 Out-on-downs, 1 INT, 1 Fumble. Kinda obvious what we need to work on.
o There were 6 games where NEITHER team scored on their 1st drive. The team who scored on their 1st drive won 7 games & lost 4 games. Better chance of winning if you score first?
o Bucs 1st drive of the game averaged 7.7 plays. Opponents 1st drive averaged 8.1 plays. Pretty much the same.
o In looking at the FIRST play of the game for the Bucs, we ran it 8 times and passed it 11 times. The run plays were interesting because 7 of those 8 rushes were between the Guards (only 1 was over tackle, and none were outside). We gained 28 total yards on those 8 runs (none were negative BTW).
The 11 pass plays were even more interesting though because only 1 was incomplete. The 10 completed passes gained 92 yards (nice way to start the game).
June 23rd, 2024 at 4:41 am
Rats; make that passed it 9 times instead of 11 times. The 8 completed passes gained 92 yards; 4 of those totaled 70 yards (deep 18; short 24; deep 17; short 11).
June 23rd, 2024 at 6:11 am
Yikes on these stats and they are somewhat confusing looking at the chart. Houston’s baffles me too. We are number 20 on FG attempts. Watching the games, most of us get somewhat frustrated with the abundance of FG attempts vs TDs. Thank you DR for being curious and giving us a stat breakdown too. I learn so much here!
June 23rd, 2024 at 6:26 am
Great stuff DR! The hidden curse of a good kicker. Coaches who have a good kicker like Chase tend to get conservative in the red zone play calling and settle for the field goal. Canales lack of play calling experience showed up in his scripting of his first series and red zone play calling. I also wonder how good the Bucs offensive analysts are in scouting opponents?
June 23rd, 2024 at 7:33 am
I think time of possession is a better indicator for some of the issues last season. There was only one playoff team worse than the Bucs. Trying not to be obvious but the teams lack of sustaining drives as well as the defenses inability to get off the field led to the lack of scoring chances. We know the offense never scored on the first drive, but where did the defense rank on 3 & outs? Just out of curiosity.
June 23rd, 2024 at 7:46 am
Need more breakdown on field goals.
#20 on attempts,
But #8 on makes.
That looks like a lot of drives ending before midfield.
June 23rd, 2024 at 7:59 am
I immediately dismiss any stat showing the Cowboys in 1st for said category. Sorry. They suck, so clearly this statistic does not show causality.
June 23rd, 2024 at 10:26 am
When you pick a kicker in fantasy leagues, you always go for a decent kicker on a team with a middling to poor offense, as they settle for fg’s far more often
June 23rd, 2024 at 10:31 am
Would there be a more telling statistic if rather than #of drive ending in punt / turnover it was % of drives.
June 23rd, 2024 at 10:44 am
I agree with Just. % are the real stats.
June 23rd, 2024 at 11:47 am
DR, you also wow with your uncanny football savvy. Who knew the Bucs never scored a TD to open a game last year? Oh, yeah — that’s the point of the article and the comment. And they were among the worst at red zone TDs. Two big areas for improvement.
Todd was Mr. low risk to open games, and he needs to change.
You can keep being a Richard if you want.
#AsToddEvolves
June 23rd, 2024 at 2:45 pm
LOOK CLOSER …
Teams at the top, middle, and bottom of that chart all made the playoffs. The only thing this stat points out is it’s a meaningless stat.
June 23rd, 2024 at 3:16 pm
Get better and more consistent QB play, and you’ll score more points.
Of course betting on Baker to be consistent and improve on a career year is generally going to be a losing proposition.
June 23rd, 2024 at 3:24 pm
Dave Pear … ‘You can keep being a Richard if you want.’
Dave Pear … ‘Grab another sixes out of your pickup truck, make sure it’s not too warm, though. Warm Busch Light has been shown to reduce marginal intellect below the line of cognition.’
Dave Pear … ‘In a match of wits between you and an eggplant, the money is on the eggplant. Go back to your Barbie dolls.’
Dave Pear … ‘Does 99 fatty have a football point or just trying to be an Internet fat guy?’
Dave Pear … ‘Loudmouth internet fat girls with size fascinations usually crave a dining experience with the large knockwurst’.
Dave … You KNOW that comments like that are gonna get some not-so-positive responses I’m sure (and those were from just a handful from the last 48 hours).
Instead of #AsToddEvolves you might try ‘#AsDaveEvolves’. Oh and BTW, my real name is Richard, so I’ll take your advice and keep using it.
June 23rd, 2024 at 6:42 pm
Mr. Pontification trying the copy quote – paste gambit to somehow prove a point. LOL! Is that you giving an Internet “whooping?” Your definition of a “whooping” is interesting.
Impressive, almost as impressive as some of those 8,308 word war-and-peace diatribes that are excellent at curing insomnia.
Here’s hoping you win JBF’s cherished “Poster of the Year” award, since you have the stones to lecture the Joes and everyone else, due to your far superior football acumen.
The fact that you took the time to copy/paste slap is kind of hilarious. You might be better off just skipping by a post. Either way, it only encourages more pointed posting so thanks for the encouragement.
June 23rd, 2024 at 8:41 pm
Dave Pear – your usual negative posts have been better and more thoughtful as of late. Keep heading in the right direction.
DR is a legend around these parts and probably the best poster on here. Might want to slide out of a head-on collision there.
June 24th, 2024 at 10:26 am
The only clear thing those stats tell me is that if we were 8th in most field goals made, despite being 20th in field goal attempts, it means our kicker was very good when getting asked to do his job. I’m okay with that.