Rachaad White’s Sad Rushing Success
June 10th, 2024
Ugly stat.
If stat guys can see this and Joe can, then why couldn’t the Bucs?
Or maybe they did (after the season)?
In January, typing a preview of the playoffs, Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis dug up a truly ugly stat of Bucs running back Rachaad White. Basically, feeding White the ball on the ground was a lost cause if the Bucs wanted him to move the chains.
As a runner, White had a 26.1% success rate, last among 23 running backs with 200 or more rushes on the season. That rate ranked 47th out of 49 backs with 100 or more runs.
What is success rate? A successful play is defined as:
* A play gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down.
* A play gains at least 70% of yards to gain on second down.
* A play that gains 100% of the necessary yards needed to move the chains on third or fourth down.
Look, White is one of the best pass-catchers out of the backfield in the league. That’s where and when he should get the ball. Often. As a running back, just no.
For the Bucs to constantly feed White between the tackles with such lousy results despite having two stud players like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin not only was shameful but a waste of precious talent as well as Team Glazer loot.
You think Team Glazer enjoys shelling out millions to someone who doesn’t get the rock enough?
June 10th, 2024 at 9:12 am
If you want so desparately to poke holes in White’s game you’re going need stats that isolate the RB. This isn’t it.
June 10th, 2024 at 9:12 am
I really believe that Sean Tucker gets it figured out this year. He has talent and at 210 pounds runs a 4.3 second 40. I see him as an RB 2 and kick off returner this year. You saw it here first folks.
June 10th, 2024 at 9:12 am
No Ryan Jensen 2022 & 2023
Equals a offensive line with weak spots
Offensive line is the only part of football that needs to work as a unit in unison
Every Buc RB has had trouble getting past the offensive line and often met by the defense in its own backfield.
So .. to Rashaad …. while he is not my ideal running back, lacks cutting ability, it’s really not possible to judge his performance due to the crappy offensive line.
The offensive line WILL be better this year barring injuries so we should see a improvement in the running game.
June 10th, 2024 at 9:23 am
Marpet’s premature retirement & Jensens injury combined with a bad run scheme equaled a terrible run game the past two years for the Bucs. I fully expect improvement from 32nd to at least 20th with the new coaching staff and players on the oline.
June 10th, 2024 at 9:31 am
Canales’s run game was completely unimageable – up the middle was his play of the day consistently.
Happy to see him gone.
June 10th, 2024 at 9:42 am
“Marpet’s premature retirement & Jensens injury combined with a bad run scheme equaled a terrible run game the past two years for the Bucs.”
Run game has been terrible since Dirk Koetter, the only reason fans are trying to make it seem it just started 2 years ago is because we’ve been struggling to score in that same timeframe. The first 3 yrs in BAs offense it didn’t matter because were top 5 in scoring(yes even in 2019) & putting points up was more likely than not, but so was turning the ball over.
White did well enough in 2023 to get Mayfield paid and I’m looking forward to Coen bringing out some of that inside/outside zone w/duo elements wrapped into it. Lots of motion, Godwin and Evans blocking prowess will be exploited and we’re going to help the IOL getting two hats on a body in the trenches. There’s alot of good info and film cutups of Coens time in the collegiate ranks and pretty much all of it translates to pro talent in the pro game.
June 10th, 2024 at 10:05 am
I agree with @realistic-optimistic. This stat is owned by the OL, RB, and play caller. To look at White’s game, you have to look at YAC and missed tackles.
June 10th, 2024 at 10:09 am
NFL passing success rate 2023:
A play is a success if the offense gets the following fraction of yards towards the next first down:
50% on 1st down
70% on 2nd down
100% on 3rd, 4th down
The top team in the NFL last season passing was
San Francisco at a 50.6% rate when they passed the ball.
Tampa Bay was 16th best team at a 43.1% rate.
The top 9 teams in passing all made the playoffs.
It is easier to make the playoffs as a good passing team than a good running team. Many ways to win in the NFL but let’s not over sell the run portion.
June 10th, 2024 at 10:12 am
From 1997 through 2017, only 57.5% of playoff teams (145 of 252) had a positive team rush efficiency.
Compare that with a period from 1998 through 2017, only 39 of 252 playoff teams allowed more yards per pass attempt than they gained. This implies that 84.5% of playoff teams had a positive pass efficiency.
If you do it all great. But this clearly shows if you are to be good at just some things, it is better to be good at passing and good at stopping the pass.
June 10th, 2024 at 10:27 am
Lastly Pro Football Reference does a similar stat but not 100 percent the same.
They have a success rate stat. Theirs is defined:
A successful rush is defined as getting at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards on 3rd or 4th down.
So, while Rachaad White is still low on their list, here is how he compares to other Buccaneers last year.
Rachaad White 40.8
Chase Edmonds 46.9
Sean Tucker 26.7
Ke’Shawn Vaughn 20.8
Atlanta Running backs:
Bijan Robinson 43.5
Tyler Allgeier 48.4
Carolina Running Backs:
Chuba Hubbard 47.5
Miles Sanders 40.3
New Orleans Running Backs:
Alvin Kamara 48.3
Jamal Williams 39.6
Kendre Miller 39.0
June 10th, 2024 at 10:45 am
First and foremost nothing has hurt the bucs offense more these past 2 seasons than the entire middle of our offensive line, guards and center. Running anything between the tackles was wasted effort. Adding Barton to the center position and having Wirfs and Goedecke at the tackles will surely have a positive effect.
That said it wouldn’t surprise me if the bucs play an offence more closely resembling the Brady years. We have the best wr room in the entire NFL in my opinion and drafting Bucky Irving gives us two rbs that can run route trees. The bucs opened up the offense in the playoffs and I think they all realized Baker can do this.
Go bucs!!!!
June 10th, 2024 at 11:20 am
Joe I will give you $50 if you can make it to training camp without yet another article pointing to how bad Rachaad White is. Of course there are 100 different stats that point to the same thing.
I think it’s time for some polls.
UDFA to make the team.
What record
Yards for Evans. TDs for Evans
What rookie will produce the most
How many sacks for Kancey/Diaby
How many yards/TDs for Baker
What media personality are you keeping receipts for
Where does this roster rank on paper All Time
June 10th, 2024 at 11:23 am
@Dude Going from the last third in the league to dead last two years in a row is a terrible regression no matter how you slice it. Marpets and Jensens absence hamstrung the offense the past two years.
June 10th, 2024 at 11:32 am
Consistently running the same plays from the same sets, week in and week out, made our offense very predictable.
So much so that any success rate was based entirely on the athleticism of our players.
With better game planning, I expect much better results.
June 10th, 2024 at 11:35 am
@A Bucs Fan
trying to pretend like it just started the last 2 years when we’re going on a decade of being ranked in the bottom third in the league is the point. No gaping difference between being the 23rd ranked rushing team or the 32nd, what remains true is most of the rest of the league runs the ball better than you which has been the case since 2016 even with Marpet & Jensen we were still bottom of the barrell in terms of rushing production. That’s my point.
June 10th, 2024 at 12:49 pm
I love football because it is the ultimate team sport
June 10th, 2024 at 1:27 pm
Man stats are fun lol.
In games in which White had 15 or more carries, we were 9-2.
In games in which White had less than 15 carries we were 0-6.
That kind of wrecks the whole “we should have passed more” argument… Give me the W:L correlated stats over this random “success” metric. Winning = the ultimate success metric.
June 10th, 2024 at 1:41 pm
9-2 when White got 15+ carries last year.
0-6 when he had less than 15 carries.
Stats baby
June 10th, 2024 at 2:33 pm
Joe ignoring Hainsey getting bullied weekly shows his low football IQ
RB’s can’t do much behind an interior line that gets pushed around consistently
June 10th, 2024 at 3:25 pm
@Dude – I don’t disagree with your point but you’re the one who pretending. I didn’t say they had a good run game before. I said that Marpets retirement Jensens injury and the scheme equalled a terrible run game. Is 32nd the past two years not terrible or worst in the league? Were they not ranked higher and had more yards per game in the years prior? Where in my statement did I say the run game was great/good before? All I said is that Marpet and Jensens departure with their current scheme made it worse. You’re arguing a claim that I never stated.
June 10th, 2024 at 7:09 pm
Look at his eyes, there’s no fire, no “dawg” in him. When you hear him speak there’s no umph in his voice. He runs directly into tackles and goes down with arm tackles. He’s a sprinter playing running back. That’s why he excels in the passing game because he doesn’t like getting hit in the trenches because he lacks short space vision that’s why he excels in space
June 10th, 2024 at 7:12 pm
Oh yeah it doesn’t help that Blowles and Cornales lacked the vision to change up their gameplan to match the opponent on a quarter by quarter basis let alone per game basis
June 10th, 2024 at 8:11 pm
Well, it’s almost 8 PM here in Valrico and Joe has now gotten 23 of us to bite yet again on his never-ending diatribe against Rachaad White. A couple days ago I thought it was sad; today it’s just pitiful. Very focused chumming, but apparently it does get bites.
The entire article bemoans Rachaad as an exceptionally poor RB, but not a single mention of …
o Bucs’ OLine being terrible at run-blocking.
o Bucs OC being terrible at run play-calling.
o Bucs’ front office stocking the RB room with players who were obviously worse than Rachaad at running the ball (let me see, oh ya, no worthwhile competition).
o And oh ya, no mention that our primary RB who “had a 26.1% success rate, last among 23 running backs with 200 or more rushes on the season” just happened to gain 990 yards rushing on the season.
The young man took an absolute beating on the season … 861 offensive snaps worth (78%) … but played in all 17 games. That BTW Joe was the MOST snaps of any RB in the NFL (ahead of #2 Etienne (856), #3 Pollard (836), #4 McCaffrey (812) & #5 Robinson (771). With an improved OLine & improved play-calling, I fully expect Rachaad to get his 1000 yards rushing this season, but to do it in a lot fewer touches. My gut tells me that he’ll improve to better than 4.0 YPC this year. Of course, then you’ll pee & moan that he didn’t average 4.5 YPC. Poor kid can’t win on this site,
June 10th, 2024 at 8:21 pm
DavidBigBucsFan99 … ‘He runs directly into tackles and goes down with arm tackles.’
And yet Rachaad led the league in YAC per reception by a considerable margin last year. Tells me that if you give him a little space to operate, he’s pretty danged good at making people miss & piling up the yards.
Problem is that our OLine didn’t git ‘er done in creating that space last year. Neither did our OC when it came to play design & play calling. Now that we’ve replaced the OC, the Running Game Coordinator & the OLine Coach it’ll be interesting to see if our running game improves this season. My money’s on that it will.
June 11th, 2024 at 12:07 am
Joe only mentions Hainsey when it is used as a scapegoat narrative. Horrible LG and rookie RG with ZERO push. Joe thinks if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it must be a penguin.
June 11th, 2024 at 12:55 am
The runs up the middle were predictable it was a running joke between my son and i on what the next play would be
June 11th, 2024 at 1:27 am
Everyone should read Lord Cornelius’ takes. Data. Simple win-based correlations. Facts.
That is it.
June 11th, 2024 at 2:15 am
realistic-optimistic … ‘If you want so desperately to poke holes in White’s game you’re going need stats that isolate the RB. This isn’t it.’
The first comment on this thread nailed it.
Dave Pear … ‘Simple win-based correlations. Facts. That is it.’
The last comment on this thread nailed it also.
June 11th, 2024 at 3:05 am
Joe,
I once had a dog that just could not stop chasing cars. No matter what we did he chased cars. Stubborn beyond compare. He would get thumped on a regular basis and still he chased cars. At some point I just resigned myself that this dog is never gonna get it and I might as well get the body bag ready. That dog was indeed his own worst enemy.
At some point your refusal to see facts about this just make you look very stubborn and well…sad.
Go Bucs!
June 11th, 2024 at 6:54 am
“Sweaty Cajónes” run game was completely unimageable – up the middle was his play of the day consistently.
Happy to see him gone.
There, fixed it for you.
June 11th, 2024 at 8:10 am
I had posted earlier on this thread and yet my comments weren’t getting published(?)
By now, it would appear everything I wanted to say has been said by EVERYONE commenting on this article. Well said gentlemen. You literally covered every reason why not only White and the rest of the RB room struggled to run the ball, but also WHY we went through our slump mid-season. It’s all connected.
I think we can all agree that “perhaps” White might not be a special talent, but he’s a damn good player and a starting caliber RB. If Barton can show up early at Center and if Coen’s scheme clicks early, I think we’re in for a big year on the ground for all our backs, which is going to make everything else on this offense hum right along. I’m excited where the team is heading.
June 11th, 2024 at 11:57 am
In a 3 receiver set, having White out on routes is a winning formula. He catches better than most receivers and is exceptional at making the first guy miss.
If the coordinator is smarter than the last guy he will mix up the running downs between all the backs but continue to target White on all downs he is in there.
He was getting too many carries last season and not justifying them based on his below mediocre YPR.