Points Are Crucial For A Todd Bowles’ Defense (More Than You May Think)
June 11th, 2024
Look at the scoreboard.
Yeah, points are important, the most important element in football. Score more thanyour opponent and you win. Case closed.
Throw all kinds of made-up stats you want at Joe. Only one matters and none are more important:
Scoreboard. Points. Period.
That’s why the following stat shocked Joe.
Per handicapper turned statistician Warren Sharp, no team in the NFL last year gave up fewer losses after having a lead in games than the Bucs. Simply put, if the Bucs got a lead on you, they didn’t lose much. The Bucs coughed up a lead just twice all year. That was the best in the NFL last season, tied with the Cowboys, Steelers and Jets.
The two Super Bowl teams, thought to have special defenses, gave up more leads than the Bucs.
Think about this: The Bucs last year had a terribly inconsistent pass rush and, aside from safety Antoine Winfield, the Bucs’ pass defense was largely trash (fourth-worst). Joe figures that will improve.
So if the Bucs can somehow get into the top-10 in scoring (up from No. 20 in 2023) and find an improved pass defense, this team could do damage.
losses after holding a lead at any point in the game:
10 – ARI
9
8 – MIN
7 -ATL, GB, TEN, LAC, CAR
6 – CHI, IND, SEA
5 – LAR, WAS, NE, CIN
4 – BUF, DEN, LV, PHI
3 – KC, NO, CLE, BAL, SF, JAX, HOU, NYG, DET, MIA
2 – PIT, DAL, TB, NYJ— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 17, 2024
June 11th, 2024 at 4:02 am
LOL
Thanks for the Laugh Joe!
You too Stat Boy!
Go Bucs!
June 11th, 2024 at 6:17 am
chase mclaughlin……..last year…….season for the ages!
June 11th, 2024 at 6:31 am
I fixed it for you Joe..
This team “will” do some damage 😉
June 11th, 2024 at 6:32 am
It’s hard to believe Carolina even lead in 7 games.
Problem with the Bucs is they hardly scored a TD in the 1st quarter and when they did, it usually meant a win.
If we start fast, we will win 12 games.
June 11th, 2024 at 7:30 am
Good article and agree with BillyBucco. We need to score earlier TDs and keep going strong throughout. Living on the edge with field goals may not be enough this season.
June 11th, 2024 at 7:56 am
“the Bucs’ pass defense was largely trash (fourth-worst)”
When you’re 5th best out of 32 teams limiting point production who really gives a rip about teams having to pass the ball for 45-48 minutes of the game because they tried running and that didn’t work.
Solve this, our defense ranked 5th in opponent ppg, that’s playoff run worthy.
What isn’t going to get us far, is averaging 21.2 ppg on the other side of the ball.
Pretty simple to figure it out, score more TDs than FGs in 2024.
June 11th, 2024 at 8:35 am
The Bucs only led 36% of the time last year. Hard to give up the lead when you barely ever had it to begin with. I’m confident our D did get better though!
June 11th, 2024 at 8:40 am
Dude, I agree with you on the ppg given up. The only problem is that sustained drives are taking away at least one possession sometimes two per game from the offense. I believe this contributes to the lack of our scoring.
June 11th, 2024 at 8:41 am
Unlocking a consistent effective run game is the key to the offense taking a next step.
Last year:
White 15+ carries (11 games) = 24.8 ppg (would rank 8th in NFL)
White under 15 carries (6 games) = 12.5 ppg (would be last in NFL)
Lot easier to score in the red zone when running the ball is a viable option. Much easier to sustain drives and keep the defense fresh. Much easier to be less predictable.
Of the top 10 scoring offenses, 8 had over 2000 rushing yards. The other 2 were at 1742 & 1920. Bucs were at 1509.
June 11th, 2024 at 8:42 am
Adam from NY makes a great point. McLauglin is a secret weapon and Camarda is just as good punting.
I do not know what the new rules will do to the Bucs ST play but they begin the season with two exceptional kickers!
June 11th, 2024 at 8:55 am
“The only problem is that sustained drives are taking away at least one possession sometimes two per game from the offense”
So do turnovers, and that’s how our season ended with the defense going back on the field after getting reductive play from the offense. We were also +8 in the turnover differential and still finished 18th in scoring with extra opportunities throughout the season. My logic is, if we can maintain a top 10 standing on defense in ppg, just getting our offense up to 13th-11th in scoring could get us more wins.
To me that’s going to take vast improvement in both sides of the ball on 3rd down. Stay tight on D in the redzone, but he offense has to be better generating TDs in the redzone. Complimentary ball is paramount
June 11th, 2024 at 9:55 am
We definitely need faster starts on offense. There’s a couple problems though. I don’t think our HC wants that. And, I don’t think our QB is capable of that.
These are the reasons national media doesn’t prop up the Bucs.
Licht has been masterful with his drafting the last two years, and he’s done a good job retaining players on friendly contracts.
Despite all the fluff pieces from Joe this offseason, I’m pretty sure Licht see’s Mayfield and Bowls and stopgaps while he fixes the cap. That’s how Baker’s contract reads.
June 11th, 2024 at 10:04 am
If Coen is going to produce a more urgent offense, the lowest-hanging fruit is the running game. Nowhere to go but up.
I don’t think we’ll ever squeeze more production out of Baker than what we witnessed last season. But the OL improvements are encouraging. If we can even get to 20th in rushing, with a completely rebuilt OL full of young maulers, we can score more points.
June 11th, 2024 at 10:14 am
You have to be in the lead to lose the lead.
June 11th, 2024 at 10:29 am
You have to have leads first to give them up. With our slow starts, we often didn’t lead games until near the end. This is a one dimensional stat that does not have much meaning. There are versions of this that type of statistic that are better and maybe I’ll look them up someday. But you are right, the team that scores the most points in the game is the one that is supposed to win.
June 11th, 2024 at 10:36 am
“the Bucs’ pass defense was largely trash (fourth-worst)”
So you are talking about points being all important (truth) – but then attribute the yards per game stat to our secondary instead of the obviously more important points per game given up – which was very good in 2023….
If the Bucs offense is “top-10 in scoring” – this team will be hard to beat.
With our current defense – 25+ ppg = 12+ wins
June 11th, 2024 at 10:42 am
realistic-optimistic Says:
“I don’t think we’ll ever squeeze more production out of Baker than what we witnessed last season”
“If we can even get to 20th in rushing, with a completely rebuilt OL full of young maulers, we can score more points.”
That sounds like a major contradiction. Better Oline and better running game = better (more productive) Baker…. Duh
June 11th, 2024 at 11:00 am
@pickgrin, where’s the contradiction? He had a better running game in 2020 and he basically put up the same stats as last year. I think that’s pretty close to peak performance for him.
June 11th, 2024 at 11:03 am
If he turns out to be Brees, I’ll eat crow. But what he did last season (arguably his best) was not Brees. Not even close. Brees put up legendary seasons for completion percentage. Multiple 5K seasons. He routinely jumped out to big leads on opponents. He was like a surgeon. Mayfield has a very long, very steep mountain to climb if he’s ever to be a QB on that level.
June 11th, 2024 at 11:07 am
The 9th through 11th highest scoring teams last year were the Saints (#9-23.6 ppg), Browns (#10-23.3 ppg) and Colts (#11-also 23.3 ppg). The Aint’s with Derrick Carr? and the Browns and Colts had backups playing QB.
Yes, the Bucs should be able to do a LOT better. Oline is better. Better OC (I believe) and hopefully he gets our run game going (literally it can’t be worse being the Bucs were #32)
June 11th, 2024 at 12:22 pm
That Texans loss still stings.
June 11th, 2024 at 12:32 pm
That is a VERY huge eyebrow raising stat. I’m not going to anoint Bowles the next Belichek but it’s his most impressive HC work to date. Great Job But lets see if there is variance and it comes down to earth this year.
June 11th, 2024 at 3:39 pm
Simply put, Bowels’ defense in 2023 gave up more passing yards than all but two teams. The fact they didn’t give up more points is an anomaly. There is historically a very close correlation between yards given up and points given up.
Todd is living on borrowed time with that bend bend and bend some more defense. So, yeah, Bucs better be scoring 30ppg to keep the defensive masturmind from becoming an insurance executive in 2025.
June 11th, 2024 at 3:50 pm
@DavidPear
Since 2019 we’ve been in a top 10 defense in terms points allowed 3 of 5 seasons with 2019 & 2021 being the exceptions. Running/passing up and down the field w/o scoring as an offense is fruitless production. Bending & not breaking is the anomaly you’re refrencing and we hang our hats on that because it’s better than being streaky or outright bad.
June 12th, 2024 at 12:26 am
Time to fetch some data.