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Can The Bucs Maintain Dominance In The Turnover Battle?

June 12th, 2024

Fundamentals > takeaways.

Last year, the Bucs validated every lousy Lovie Smith wannabe out there.

You remember Lovie, the Bucs head coach/defensive coordinator who obsessed about turnovers so much he didn’t give a damn how his defense played so long as they got turnovers.

Godawful tackling, guys playing out of position, dudes not covering receivers. Lovie overlooked all of it so long as the almighty turnover was obtained.

Joe wishes the theory that takeaways = wins was absolute. It is not. For example, the Chiefs last year were -11 in takeaways margin and won the Super Bowl.

The Bucs — if you believe #NFLMedia — shocked the football world advancing to the divisional round. They did so, the Lovie wannabes will say, because they were +8 in turnover margin.

For Joe, turnovers are way too random to go overboard about. Defensive coaches often say “Turnovers come in bunches.” That right there is an admission that there is no true rhyme or reason why or when turnovers happen, no matter how much a coach may stress them.

Yeah, it was great the Bucs had an excellent turnover margin. But it’s not life or death.

Recently on his podcast “GM Shuffle,” Michael Lombardi, the former NFL coffee fetcher for Bill Walsh, Al Davis and Bill Belicheat, offered what Walsh used to say about NFL games. If players just play the right way and do what they are supposed to do, the score will take care of itself.

Good ol’ fashioned football fundamentals are much more important to Joe than accidents, which turnovers often are. Block and tackle and play solid fundamental football and like Walsh said and you’ll be in good shape at the end of a game.

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10 Responses to “Can The Bucs Maintain Dominance In The Turnover Battle?”

  1. Brian in St Pete Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 12:08 am

    The Giants led the league and they were…..subpar.

  2. Dude Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 12:43 am

    Takeaways = extra opportunities for your offense, but if the offense ain’t humming they can’t bank on takeaways. Pretty clear across any sport where postion of a ball needs to be maintained.

    Points off turnovers aren’t an easy stat to just look up and have available, to me I think that can sully the QB driven narrative the NFL has going on.

    KC was minus 11, but their defense was Top 5 in points allowed, yards allowed, 1st downs allowed which helps pick up the slack in the turnover differential. Again, being able to see how well an offense does after their defense forces a turnover can truly illustrate how turnovers are just half the battle, you need an offense that can turn them into 6 more often than not.

  3. Dave Pear Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 1:00 am

    The forced fumbles are generally great defensive plays and can be coached up.

    If the DBs didn’t have doorknobs for hands, the Bucs would have had a lot better than +8 and might have been in the NFC Championship.

    If Twon can get Dean over to the jugs machine, maybe there’s a chance for improvement. Bowels should demand that.

    But he won’t.

  4. Pickgrin Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 2:56 am

    So Winfield Jr winning 2 games all by himself was accidental? Hardly…..

    Here’s an interesting turnover ‘stat’ for you….

    “Looking at a 5 year window from 2009>2013 – teams that finished in the top ten in turnover differential finished 521-278-1. That’s a winning percentage of 65.2 percent and equates to about 10.4 wins per season. On the other end of the spectrum, the teams that finished in the bottom ten in turnover differential finished 287-512-1. That’s a winning percentage of about 35.9 percent and equates to about 5.7 wins per season.”

  5. Jack Burton Mercer Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 5:19 am

    Says the guy who is obsessed with sacks. Anyways, turnovers, at least the prevention of them, is fundamental football. The creation of turnovers by the defense is often luck. I’m guessing that turnover stats should really be analyzed separately, not as a net number, to get a truer picture of their importance.

  6. bob in valrico Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 6:24 am

    Not knocking sacks but if the goal is just to put a QB on the ground he still lives to make another play. Now a sack fumble that creates a turnover for the defense
    is fundamental football in my book.

  7. JimBobBuc Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 6:25 am

    Great points about Win winning some games for us with his attention to forced fumbles. I think our young DL and OLB guys need to be reminded about strip sack fumble creation, they need to be attacking the ball from the QB. I hope that Tykee and Braswell can continue the turnover production they had in college.

  8. RBUC Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 7:07 am

    Look it’s simple and will continue to be a problem until the Bucs change their philosophy on personnel. You ready Joe THE BUCS ARE UNDERSIZED AT EVERY POSITION EXCEPT VITA & DEAN( Big V barely plays 50% of the snaps & Dean is a china doll with bad instincts & stone for hands) When I watch the week 17 game against the Saints I see one team pushing the other ALL OVER THE FIELD! People comment on this site how the Saints are in the Bucs rear view mirror and are no threat are fooling themselves! Joe describes the Lions playoff game as one the Bucs could have easily won but I don’t think the Lions ever felt threatened the whole game and from a physicality standpoint the Bucs still have a ways to improve EVER compete with the Niners( if we are being honest with ourselves)!
    Teams that are small and quick struggle to tackle teams that are big and physical PERIOD!!! Hope the Bucs can improve in this area this season 🚩☠️🏈

  9. Scotty Mack Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 8:43 am

    I’m more concerned with offensive turnovers.

  10. Dude Says:
    June 12th, 2024 at 9:48 am

    @Scotty Mack

    I feel your pain, we went 3-9 in the games our offense turned the ball over at least once in 12 games. No bueno