Bucs Running The Ball On Third Downs
June 1st, 2024
Average moving the chains.
When the Bucs keep it on the ground on third downs, it’s just about a flip of the coin if they succeed or fail to move the chains.
That’s what last year’s stats say. And this did not include quarterback sneaks or handoffs to wide receivers in motion. This only applies to the Bucs handing the ball off to a running back on third downs.
Noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp did some digging, and the Bucs are firmly stuck in the middle when it comes to converting a third down into a first down by keeping the ball on the ground.
The Bucs last season converted 48 percent of their conversation attempts running the ball on third downs, tied with the Steelers.
Among, the Bucs were pretty much in the middle, ranked No. 14.
So when the Bucs needed to move the chains on the ground, they didn’t suck. They weren’t good either. Just meh.
3rd down conversion % on RB runs
77% – KC
76%
75%
74%
73%
72%
71%
70%
69%
68%
67% – BUF
66% – BAL
65%
64%
63% – DAL
62% – GB
61%
60%
59%
58% – SEA
57% – TEN
56% – MIA
55% – NO
54%
53% – SF
52% – LAR, ARI
51%
50% – CAR
49%
48% – PIT, TB
47% – DET, IND, CHI
46%
45% – LV
44% – WAS,…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 24, 2024
June 1st, 2024 at 11:04 am
FINALLY! A running stat we aren’t at the bottom of
June 1st, 2024 at 11:08 am
“They were just meh.”
A very fair and objective take. I agree. However I’m not of a mind that the team can go very far into the playoffs with a “meh” running game.
Hopefully and really revamped OL over the past two seasons, and a new OC who might actually scheme some plays that help the running game, including not being so incredibly predictable, will convert “meh” into “good” and maybe even “very good”. If the run game goes from “meh” to “very good” the Bucs will win a lot of games including in the post season.
June 1st, 2024 at 11:56 am
Holy smoke, check out that stat for KC!
June 1st, 2024 at 12:08 pm
Hopefully with a good center they can get back to doing QB sneaks on very short yardage 3rd down. Was surprised last season when they didn’t do that.
June 1st, 2024 at 12:13 pm
The Chiefs are insane
June 1st, 2024 at 12:54 pm
All 5 of those teams at the top have a mobile qb who is a threat to run it on 3rd down as well.
June 1st, 2024 at 1:29 pm
Bowels seems to be very clear about not wanting Baker to run the ball… EVER. No matter the circumstance. Maybe, that changes just a tad now with Barton, on ‘sneaks’ and such, depending on the circumstance(s), opponent, game importance, time of the season, or playoffs!? I was just thinking this morning that our running back room could be pretty solid, if Chase Edmonds can finally get thru a season at full health, & Sean Tucker makes his ‘second year’ jump… Could be some decent depth there, & versatility. Bucky should be (hungry) a nice addition & White should be chomping at the bit and much improved. Teams are definitely going to have to account for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, JMac, & Palmer. THROW to set up the RUN, versus vice versa. Get out to a fast start & get Bake ‘Bakin’ then POUND ‘EM with a quick hittin’ run game. Our Backs should be good outta the backfield catching and running, too!!!! The roster is set. All we need is ‘health’ again like last season, & Cohen cookin’ just calling good plays with good tempo and pace… Just like the “Old Ball Coach.” Havin’ Fun Callin’ Plays!!!!
June 1st, 2024 at 1:39 pm
Assuming improved o-line play, as quickly as Irving goes from 0 to 60 it wouldn’t surprise me to see him emerge as a surprisingly effective 3rd down back.
Yes, he’s small but that makes him harder to see behind the line and the guy can cut and change direction on a dime. He also fits thru smaller holes…..
June 1st, 2024 at 1:50 pm
The biggest problem is how many 3rd and 1s were not converted.
June 1st, 2024 at 2:17 pm
Stats don’t say the third down yardage. Third and 1 alot different than third and 4. Doesn’t say how many defenders in the box either. White seemed to run like a power back, stick his head down and lean way forward and fall for two yards and the first. If there was a hole his lean was so extreme he would fall forward and limit his gain. Bucky seems to have better vision and better contact balance. I hope both are productive and the Bucs can at least be average in overall running.
June 1st, 2024 at 2:56 pm
I think Bucky is going to be quite the surprise. Quick burst, shifty, YAC, can hit small holes and explode, good vision, great hands. Can he pass protect? We shall see. You wanna see the field – better keep Baker clean.
June 1st, 2024 at 3:52 pm
I think they need a two headed coin man. Bucky pass protect?? Well it depends how big the defender is, we might have to treat him like our quarterback, please don’t let him get killed.
Let’s Go Bucs!!!! Rich E. said Superbowl ceiling!!
June 1st, 2024 at 4:16 pm
You have a team that was literally built to throw the ball, lead the NFL in passing and yards and points — and this moron Bowles says, screw that, I want to run up the middle on every play because his middle school coach told him you win by running the ball.
Anywho, last year, I really didn’t have a huge issue with the play calling considering the limited talent at QB.
But this year, with another year of Bowles tearing the offense down and making it more of a run first simpleton scheme, I expect disaster.
But the good thing is, if your expectations are low, it’s easy to exceed them! So Bowles gets the ‘low-bar’ treatment from me. Hopefully he exceeds my expectations.
To be clear, I’m talking about offense. While I’m not high on this team, I feel better about it than last year at this time.
June 1st, 2024 at 4:22 pm
Another one of Warren Sharp stats that really does not appear to match up with NFL stats.
I would ask someone where Warren gets his stuff from. I am pretty sure that he is individually not looking at all these plays. Does he hire a staff like Pro Football Focus to feed him.
Is there a reason we should rely on him more or less than PFF or PFR or Nextgen?
June 1st, 2024 at 5:08 pm
I’m old school. I want the team to have a run game, that is, a more balanced attack. Then we won’t be as predictable. Do you suppose Todd (BOWLES) merely wants that too?
June 1st, 2024 at 6:19 pm
Rod Munch: For how many times you’ve called Mayfield “middling” it seems like you’d be in agreement with Bowles about running the ball more, and more effectively.
Being able to run effectively will help the entire Bucs team, offense (play action will work even better, being able to get an tough yard in the ground game) and defense (longer Bucs drives and being on the field less).
June 1st, 2024 at 11:58 pm
I think unless you factor in the distance to gain, these are flawed stats. If you also factor in end of game drives to merely run the clock for teams in the lead, these are flawed stats. It’s similar to QBs getting interception stats when receivers don’t make and easy catch or tip the ball up in the air. Or what about when defenders drop easy passes that should be intercepted? The Bucs are famous for this lol. For many stats to truly have meaning, they should be dissected with everything brought into account. Very few things in this full color world are simply black and white. Its great to write about when there is no football, but in reality its skewed and therefore ultimately incorrect.
June 2nd, 2024 at 12:29 am
And doesn’t play calling count for something? Because Canales was horrible at least 60% of the time. And those idiots made him a head coach. Losing Canales was the best offseason move for the Bucs and they had nothing to do with it. Bill Belichick or Dave Canales? Hmmmm, that’s a tough decision. Let’s hire Canales. He hit the Peter Principle with his last job.
June 4th, 2024 at 7:32 am
Are we alowed to do the tush push?
Go Bucs!