“Rest Edge” Not Favoring Bucs
May 18th, 2024
Factoring in rest.
One reason Joe fully enjoys Warren Sharp’s work is Sharp’s patience to dig for minutia that actually turns out to have a big impact.
Most people figure out strength of schedule by just looking at teams’ win-loss records from the previous season. Sharp rails that this is faulty logic because with so much roster turnover, rarely are teams the same from year to year.
One major element in Sharp’s season-win calculations is what he calls “rest edge.” It’s the amount of days teams get to rest between games. For example, teams with more Monday night or Thursday night or Wednesday/Christmas games often have less “rest edge” they have. Per Sharp, if you have more rest entering a game than your opponent, you’ll have more success
Sharp spells out this theory right here.
He is a big believer that down the stretch of the season, the rest edge adds up on players’ bodies.
So Sharp has determined the Bucs have the eighth-worst “rest edge” for the 2024 season at -7.
So this is something to keep in mind if it appears the Bucs are gassed in December. Fortunately, the Bucs have a late bye, Week 11. That could help.
But “rest edge” is like any other data. It’s use is limited. Last year, the team with the worst “rest edge” was the 49ers at -20. They tied for the second-best record in the league. The Bucs were -2 last season and had a good year.
The Jets, Bears, Commandoes and Titans has the biggest rest edge last season and all struggled.
May 18th, 2024 at 8:14 am
Try to decipher that chart when you’ve had several single malts…..or for that matter when you are sober.
May 18th, 2024 at 8:15 am
All the data these “analyst” compile is just an excuse for the sh!t teams. Top tier teams find a way to win games. They don’t blame travel, time or weather for their failures. They don’t just try to “survive” they take what they want and win the damn game. It’s time for the Bucs to step up and beat quality teams in unfavorable situations, quit making excuses.
May 18th, 2024 at 8:59 am
lol bucsfan
May 18th, 2024 at 9:10 am
I agree with Sharp’s ‘rest edge’ factor, but it’s still just 1 factor, and that can be mitigated to a large degree IMO by having minimal injuries to key players as well as having excellent team DEPTH when injuries do occur. The 49ers did well in both aspects last year, and had an excellent 12-5 season despite having a -20 ‘rest edge’. The Bucs were probably around average in both aspects last season, and ended with a 9-8 record, despite having a -2 ‘rest edge’. No substitute for staying healthy & having great depth (our depth should be considerably better this season).
May 18th, 2024 at 9:15 am
TBBF … Sober or wasted, make little difference; that chart can’t be deciphered without a ‘Legend’ to lead you through it.
The REAL story of Sharp’s analysis should be what he wrote in explaining his analysis …
“It is particularly concerning because the NFL has been getting worse at trying to make the schedule fair and equitable over the last several years. This spills all the way to player safety, as the NFL continues to prioritize key matchups and big-time games for TV revenue over giving teams balance in the timing of their games while protecting player health.”
That’s quite a condemnation of NFL scheduling.
May 18th, 2024 at 10:13 am
Literally irrelevant.
May 18th, 2024 at 11:00 am
It’s all about ratings and money for the NFL. I’ve always disliked the Thursday games and even more so now. Still, I think Sharp cherry-picked his examples justifying why this is important and I’m not convinced how important it really is. There are just as many examples of this concept not working, just look at the Bucs after the bye last year.
May 18th, 2024 at 12:05 pm
No need to be a “believer” or “disbeliever”; it’s a testable hypothesis. If I can find the raw data and some time, it would be fun to check it out.
May 18th, 2024 at 12:12 pm
Good teams use everything as motivation… while poor teams use everything for excuses.
May 19th, 2024 at 8:19 am
@Jp09 and K2…exactly.
One day, I’m looking forward to as fan, to not care about the schedule, and statistics, how much rest between games, when the bye week is and where we have to travel to play this ball busting team, etc. etc. One day I’m going to like us playing the best football teams in the league, knowing this team will show up and give as good as it gets. Even with Brady, in that second season when we lost only 4-games coming off of a previous season with dominant playoff performances and then winning Super Bowl, AND with soft schedule in 2021 still managed to struggle against bad football teams. We lost 9-0 to the Saints at home, against a backup of QB, how the frack does that happen? Do you think the Chiefs care about their schedule? How about Baltimore? Or even the Bengals or Bills? These teams are built for any given Sunday, rarely do they show up to a solid matchup and not punch the other team in the mouth.
Bucs aren’t there yet, could be the systems we have installed, the coaching staff, perhaps we still don’t have that super star QB that can will us to victory in a close game. I hope one day we get there, but this team isn’t it. Should still be fun to watch though.
May 19th, 2024 at 12:01 pm
Once again we get screwed playing the niners. They will be coming off of there bye week once again and we are playing them of a short week playing Monday night. How does this keep happening