Cynthia Frelund’s Numbers Aren’t Good For The Bucs
May 20th, 2024
Uh, oh.
NFL Network stats princess Cynthia Frelund has run the numbers. And her results won’t make Bucs fans smile.
Frelund is all about the numbers. She doesn’t factor in much strategy. It’s all about the numbers and sometimes matchups, too.
And the numbers spit out from her Excel spreadsheet predict doom for the Bucs this fall. How bad? Well, Frelund thinks the Bucs will have a losing season.
So what’s her — eeerrr — her software’s biggest problem with the Bucs? Frelund’s hard drive doesn’t believe the Bucs did enough to replace the guys Tampa Bay lost on defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wins: 7.8
Win Total: under 8.5 (-150)
Make Playoffs: +140
Win Division: +300
Win Conference: +3000
Win Super Bowl: +7000The four-game stretch that figures to have the most influence on the 2024 Buccaneers’ fate sits right in the middle of the season. From mid-October to mid-November, Tampa Bay will run this gauntlet: vs. Baltimore (MNF), vs. Atlanta, at Kansas City (MNF), vs. San Francisco. The three-time reigning NFC South champions lost some high-profile defenders this offseason (Devin White, Shaq Barrett, Carlton Davis), and former offensive coordinator Dave Canales is now the head man in Carolina, so it could take a few games for everyone to begin rowing in the same direction.
(Sssshhhh… someone tell these people that Devin White was no longer a starter and Bucs sacks king Shaq Barrett was a shell of his 2019 self.)
Joe could legitimately argue the Bucs defense is better off without White. And unless Shaq rises from the dead in Miami, the Bucs will have smartly moved on.
Cornerback is a fair issue for Frelund. Joe still isn’t fully sold that Zyon McCollum can be at least an above-average corner. Time will tell.
May 20th, 2024 at 7:03 am
Classic old phrase: garbage IN, garbage OUT
May 20th, 2024 at 7:19 am
Yawn
May 20th, 2024 at 7:31 am
Beej, you always bring such thoughtful insights, you should be making a living with the level of in depth analysis you provide on each topic.
May 20th, 2024 at 7:41 am
She looks hot!
Wonder what the numbers say about my chances?
Never mind Just kidding before I get blasted by the PC police.
Go Bucs!
May 20th, 2024 at 7:47 am
She has been consistently wrong on the Bucs each year, even WITH Tom Efn Brady as our QB. Bucs bias on display front and center. A classic case of letting the shiny new toys in the division (Cousins) blind you to what’s already there. The team that is the reigning division winner x 3.
Take the over.
May 20th, 2024 at 8:15 am
Everybody’s entitled to their opinion. Frelund has us with 8 wins. Last year we won 9 games. In 2022 we won 8 games. Hey, going strictly by past numbers she’s in the ballpark. Personally I think our Bucs have a very good chance to go 10-7 providing we can stay relatively healthy (we’ve got some key players like Mayfield, Evans, Wirfs, LVD, Vea who we simply can’t afford to lose for more than a game or 2).
May 20th, 2024 at 8:43 am
Really, like Joe said, White and Barrett were non- factors last two years. Davis played ok when he was healthy but he can’t catch and he’s rarely healthy. That corner from the Jets is pretty solid if unspectacular. Bryce Hall I think his name is. I think we are ok at CB. ILB is a tad shakey. OLB is probably a good bit better.
May 20th, 2024 at 8:50 am
Gosh. Why play the games when some spreadsheet geek says what all the outcomes will be?
May 20th, 2024 at 8:51 am
GIGO!
ir8oldman:
You reminded Joe that in the offseason of 2020, she claimed (her “numbers” said) the Bucs had the worst secondary in the NFL. Less than a year later, they all had rings.
May 20th, 2024 at 8:55 am
Bucs should be improved on both sides of the ball. They have taken two poor areas of the team and turned them into strengths (interior OL and Safety).
Those are not exciting positions to most, but Buc fans know those were two areas that held last year’s team back.
May 20th, 2024 at 9:02 am
I think our offense will improve enough to cover any defensive losses…..we’ve added strength to the interior oline……a WR3 & RB1B…….
We will see improvement from Mauch & Palmer.
I also think Coen is an upgrade….
May 20th, 2024 at 9:04 am
Her analysis is based on historical data only, so this is not a good indicator of future win percentage.
May 20th, 2024 at 9:06 am
Bryce Hall could be better than what anyone is thinking he is. It was just a few years ago people thought he was a great cb and earned a starting spot. Then the Jets drafted two more CBs who ended up being better.
May 20th, 2024 at 9:08 am
Exactly, Devin and Shaq are not on the Bucs this season and it’s good to be reminded of their past non-seasons too… Cynthia also stated barring injuries to her stats. Also, I am adding another caveat: The ref’s bad calls, especially with more rules starting. You cannot count on data. Agree with Tampabaybucfan, Coen is an upgrade. Not worried, the Bucs will do well.
May 20th, 2024 at 9:10 am
Fred McNeil … ‘OLB is probably a good bit better.’
Yea verily. Not all that concerned about our pass rush. Bucs will get at least 50 sacks once again (around 3 per game average), but I’m convinced that we’ll do quite a bit better on QB hits than we’ve done in these past 2 years (104 in 2022 but only 84 last season). Quite a ways down from the 116 we had in 2020 & 127 we had in 2021 when we had Vea, Suh & JPP. Gut feeling that Vea will have a better year, Kancey will come on strong, and our 2 youngsters (Diaby & Braswell) will both do quite well this year. Hunch is that Bowles will also be blitzing a lot more from the Secondary.
May 20th, 2024 at 9:21 am
Eight wins for the Bucs sounds about right to me.
However with a little luck and if the injury bug doesn’t bit them – the Bucs could win 10 games again this season.
Our O-line was the weakest link on this team and it was improved this off-season – Mauch won’t be a rookie, replacing Hainsey with Barton is a plus, Wirfs will be more settled at left tackle and Goedeke will be in his 2nd year at right tackle. LG is still a question mark but anyone will be better than Matt Feiler was…
May 20th, 2024 at 9:40 am
Probly 8, or 9 if they get lucky.
May 20th, 2024 at 9:53 am
So…because we lost Devin White, who was outplayed by his replacement last season, Shaq Barrett, who was outplayed by his replacement last season, and CD3, who was outplayed by his replacement last season…we will regress? Smells like BS around here.
May 20th, 2024 at 9:54 am
Her numbers.
Yeah, thats what Im interested in.
Im sure thats why they hired her, right?
May 20th, 2024 at 9:57 am
Yet another article about a bad projection for the Bucs. It won’t be the last. Let’s bring up every last one and all shake our heads EVERY TIME.
It is what it is and nobody in the building cares what Cynthia Frelund’s computer says. I honestly can’t believe she makes a living spitting out useless stats every year, based on OLD analytics.
Wow it is OFFICIALLY the SLOW SEASON!!!!!
May 20th, 2024 at 9:57 am
“Mike C Says:
May 20th, 2024 at 7:31 am
Beej, you always bring such thoughtful insights, you should be making a living with the level of in depth analysis you provide on each topic.”
WELL. Unlike MANY here, I believe in an economy of words
May 20th, 2024 at 10:00 am
Marine Buc, some very strong points.
I would add that Hainsey could move to LG and do better there.
May 20th, 2024 at 10:07 am
These media people are not paid to be right. In fact, regardless of their method, it’s pure guesswork.
Even we fans are guessing. A lot can hapoen to affect a season for the negative or positive.
Baker Mayfield, gifted with a quality offensive line, could have an elite year.
Or, one unlucky hit on him could take him out for the season.
Even if every player steps up, things can go wrong with injuries.
So predictions are pure luck.
May 20th, 2024 at 10:08 am
hey Garro, you should see her on NFL Network!! Especially Gamedays..wow
May 20th, 2024 at 10:09 am
I betcha Braswell, Smith and Whitehead get more sacks and QB hits/pressures in 2024 than Barrett, White and Davis in 2023
May 20th, 2024 at 10:22 am
Yeah LoL there are very good reasons for all three of those guys being goooone. It was obvious to EVERYONE. She obviously doesn’t (watch) pay close attention to the actual games and with what all goes on ‘behind the scenes’ in the locker room, etc. At least not with the BUCS. I suppose she just sets behind a screen only looking at numbers all day, & has no real context or vision to offer. Heck, you could train a monkey to do what she friggin’ does.
May 20th, 2024 at 10:23 am
The Bucs could win 2 more Super Bowls and they are still going to be disrespected. Fans could care less what these people say, talk is cheap lets see it on the field. Garbage TV
May 20th, 2024 at 10:25 am
Can you believe people actually get paid for this and no ramifications when they are wrong.
May 20th, 2024 at 10:32 am
Joe has to be fair to Frelund here. Folks getting on her for “old” analytics? You mean there are “new” analytics? We already have documentation of the Bucs record for 2024???
Please let Joe know this. He’s going to Vegas in July. Would love to know how many wins the Bucs already produced for 2024. Could make a killing.
May 20th, 2024 at 10:38 am
Butter face!
May 20th, 2024 at 10:44 am
What if she is correct?
May 20th, 2024 at 11:15 am
Well I see some cliches being bandied about so I add a couple more.
Learn from past mistakes. That’s it. The turnover in the NFL is not insignificant as well as the annual, some guys try to come back from injury but doesn’t make it,see Shaq. Other guys come back and actually overperform, see JPP.
There’s significant turnover and many surprises along the way. Trying to forecast the future in the NFL based on last year is a fool’s errand.
I finish with my favorite cliche…”The future is NOW!” I’d link one of Joe’s favorite bands here, but links disrupt the censor too much. I listen to Van Halen’s “Right Now” 2 or 3 mornings a week while swimming. Awesome song with an awesome message.
“, hey
It’s your tomorrow
(Right now),
C’mon, it’s everything
(Right now),
Catch a magic moment, do it
Right here and now
It means everything”
May 20th, 2024 at 11:41 am
The Bucs defense will continue to suck for two reasons.
Todd and Bowels.
May 20th, 2024 at 11:48 am
@ Bonzai
“Hainsey could move to LG and do better there.”
Maybe – but I highly doubt it.
6’4″ – 305 lbs with the legs of a chicken… He will get pushed around like a little girl at LG.
However – I am sure the Bucs will take a look and allow him to compete with Bredson, Opeta and Klein for the starting spot.
At least there will be some legit competition at LG and a few solid depth pieces as well at both C and OG positions unlike last season when they just gifted the starting spot to the under-performing Feiler…
May 20th, 2024 at 11:54 am
Dave Pear: You’d think that the Bucs gave up 35 to 40 points a game last year the way to talk about Todd Bowles, instead of the 19.1 PPG that they actually gave up.
May 20th, 2024 at 11:55 am
When her spreadsheet asks for the head coach entry and she types in Todd’s name, the computer cackles and displays the word “Loser” in 27 different languages.
May 20th, 2024 at 12:41 pm
They weren’t good the year we won it all. Just saying!!!
May 20th, 2024 at 12:55 pm
Dave lol that’s not nice!
May 20th, 2024 at 12:58 pm
Who gives a spit what she says? Seriously.
May 20th, 2024 at 1:06 pm
They will win around 8. Y’all were so impressed with last years 9 you supported bringing back the C QB Baker Mayfield. Mediocrity here we come again. We can dooo eeeet. Maybe we’ll overachieve and get 9 again. Better hope the division still sucks as bad as it did last year.
May 20th, 2024 at 1:11 pm
Joe – it would make for a really interesting article if you simply told us if she is any good at this. What did she predict for the NFC south last year?
May 20th, 2024 at 3:07 pm
I believe we gonna be the surprise team again. Some have us competing for the division but I think this team if everything clicks and we stay healthy can win 12/13 game’s. People will expect us to be decent but we gonna be great!!!
May 20th, 2024 at 5:05 pm
If she’s so smart, why isn’t she rich?
May 21st, 2024 at 7:31 am
My sister who knows absolutely nothing about football or any other sport and picks winners on her work football pool from team colors and how sexy they look in those pants also chose 8 wins…. wow sign her up BSPN!
Go Bucs!