Baker Mayfield Was Explosive
May 28th, 2024
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield
How can you tell a good offense? It has explosive plays.
Basically, explosive plays are big-chunk plays, and they are defined in various ways. Former Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter (2016-2018) used to call pass plays of 16-or more yards “explosive.” The 33rd Team considers pass plays of 15 yards as explosive. The PFF tribe calls 20-yard pass plays explosive.
Since the data in this here post is pulled from the PFF tribe, then 20 yards (or more) it is today.
Judah Fortgang, a spreadsheeter, has data that shows despite what some believe Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is — dink-and-dunk — that is very inaccurate.
Last season, Mayfield was a very explosive quarterback.
Granted, some of these plays wer because Mike Evans got a lot of YAC on passes, as did Trey Palmer at times. But generally, per Fortgang, Mayfield produced quite a bit of his explosive plays through the air.
Mayfield was right there with Jordan Love, Matt Stafford, Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud.
So yeah, the narrative that Mayfield can’t throw deep is, well, unsubstantiated.
A look at 2023 QB deep accuracy + the percentage of their passing yards that came via explosive plays pic.twitter.com/Ol76RQODCz
— Jrfortgang (@throwthedamball) May 24, 2024
Judah Fortgang
May 28th, 2024 at 9:09 am
Yes lets only look at the stats and ignore what our eyes seen in the games during the season. When you have Evans to throw to, the stats are going to look good. Evans career has proven that. How many times did Baker over throw a wide open Evans? Lets ignore all that because “the stats”. Man the Cult of Baker is pathetic. LMAO
May 28th, 2024 at 9:17 am
Couch Fan: Let me get this straight: If Baker hits his very talented receivers, he is a bad QB? Baker is not a top 5 QB (at this time), but he is in the top 50% and we are lucky to have him vs. the other options. Looking forward to seeing what he can do with his new OC. I like Brad Johnson, but Baker is a better QB and we won a SB with Johnson.
May 28th, 2024 at 9:20 am
Actually, the stats pretty much back up Mayfield’s issues with accuracy. He’s down pretty low as far as accuracy goes. But then if you look at this graphic and didn’t know any better, you would think that Justin Fields is a premier quarterback in the league. It’s an interesting graphic but you can’t take it too much to heart. Just tells you a piece of the puzzle. I mean, how much of Baker’s deep ball inaccuracy is due to a collapsing pocket that couldn’t be sustained… especially right in front of him? If we have better pass protection this year and Baker has issues with the long ball being accurate, then I can’t really defend him.
May 28th, 2024 at 9:27 am
James Willie, bro we won that Super Bowl with Johnson because we had the #1 defense in the NFL!!
Intercepted Gannon like 5 times in the game and took either 2 or 3 back for Tuddies on those pics…..
That’s why we won.
Johnson nothing more than a game manager…
May 28th, 2024 at 9:29 am
Yeah, I agree James….
Bakers a better QB than Johnson was……
However our defense is nowhere to close to the talent we had that year…..
May 28th, 2024 at 9:40 am
Bakers earnings per year is somewhere around 20th for starting QBs in the NFL. Baker ranks around 11-15 in most statistical categories. The Bucs have good value in Mayfield and his team likes him. Second year with his team, we should see some improvement even with a new OC. Maybe he breaks the top 10 this year, tough schedule so time will tell.
May 28th, 2024 at 9:46 am
Couch Fan Says:
Most good teams have talented receivers, you guys are a damn wrong broken record. Evans is good, but that guy dropped a lot of passes that hit him right in the hands…. He probably went up and made a few great catches also. It is FOOTBALL and rest assure almost every team has great receivers.
May 28th, 2024 at 10:09 am
I recall Evans dropping quite a few bombs. Drops aren’t taken into account here.
May 28th, 2024 at 10:56 am
Evans turned Baker into a 1st round pick and had Jameis throwing for 5k yards.
May 28th, 2024 at 10:59 am
Baker was able to step in after Brady and win the support of his team. Replacing the Goat were big cleats to fill and Baker did very well. Look at the Patriots after Brady left them. Not pretty at all. Baker only had one season with us. Wait until this season, it’s going to get even better.
Yes, there were some malfunctions with play calling too. These are all things to work out. When Evans makes a catch and touchdown, it is always magical watching him. He is the guy that scopes out the red zone crowd beforehand to make sure he has chosen specific fans to hand his football over to when he has a touchdown. That is the kind of guy he is on and off the field. So glad we have him.
May 28th, 2024 at 11:26 am
KA is 100%, up the middle pressure is the #1 thing to disrupt a passer and flush him. A lot of good comments here. Year 2 should be better, OL gets better just because a year smarter with young guys learning, Baker too, so I look forward to a more in sync offense. Also Baker was a magician getting out of potential sacks and making something happen when he had no right to, that’s on Baker and he deserves credit for that. Yeah Mike had some drops that were unexplainable but it happens, his record stands on it’s own. Manzel is still paying Evans for getting drafted so high.
May 28th, 2024 at 11:30 am
Tards gonna tard.
May 28th, 2024 at 11:33 am
Couch fan is entitled to his or her opinion. I am very thankful that mine is completely opposite and includes me in the realm of those based in reality. Also, if we want to throw stuff out there about Baker being inaccurate then it would be interesting to see if you bashed Brady also because his last season he played awful.
May 28th, 2024 at 11:52 am
Third worst in the league with deep accuracy rate, and top ten in % of explosive passing yards. The deep ball was a staple of the Bucs passing offense last year. There’s a lot of room to grow if Baker can improve his upon deep ball accuracy.
May 28th, 2024 at 11:54 am
Drops factored into the deep accuracy equation. As did a matador O-Line.
May 28th, 2024 at 11:59 am
Baker is a good quarterback certainly not one of the elite’s but we all just watched him make things happen on the field and his teammates clearly love the guy. If the young guys get better on defense and if the o line is a little bit better we’re going back to the playoffs and winning more than once.
May 28th, 2024 at 12:03 pm
If I’m reading this graph right I don’t think this really bodes well for Baker. Sure he was 6th in % of yards being explosive plays but he did it at the 3rd worst accuracy rate. That screams inefficient play which the tape confirmed for around half the games last year. And look at Justin Fields on this graph. 2nd in both accuracy rate and % of yards being explosive plays, and he just got ran out of town for practically nothing in return
May 28th, 2024 at 12:06 pm
Yeah, I always thought it was 20yds.
May 28th, 2024 at 12:21 pm
I love Evans but he also probably dropped like 200+ yards and 2-3 more TD’s worth of production
May 28th, 2024 at 12:32 pm
Did the Joe’s read this chart right? This is a lousy, lousy stat for Mayfield. It’s saying they had a lot of attempts and were among the worst in execution for explosive plays.
Those of you whining about drops hurting Baker’s standing here don’t seem to think that other teams have drops as well.
This chart is validation of the eye test when watching Baker throw downfield. He has a lot of improvement to make. And he won’t always have Mike Evans around to save him.
May 28th, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Last year at this time we had a QB competition. I was pulling for Trask, QB of the future? Baker didn’t let that happen. He’s won me over, and I hope Trask shines this preseason. Baker is entering his prime as an athlete. He’s in his prime as a QB also. I’m expecting big things from Mayfield this season. A top ten QB very attainable.
May 28th, 2024 at 1:10 pm
Not sure why this chart is offered as some type of positive regarding Baker’s “explosiveness”…
The chart says Baker Mayfield was the 3rd WORST in the NFL last year with long ball accuracy.
But 6th best regarding % of his overall passing yards that came from ‘explosive’ plays.
What that actually means is that Baker had a very hard time hitting his targets 20+ yards down the field – but that when there WAS a connection – the receivers averaged a bunch of YAC and made big plays out of those opportunities.
This chart says we have explosive WRs – not that we have an explosive QB…..
May 28th, 2024 at 1:34 pm
I believe there’s a stat out there that shows Baker to Evans had more deep TD passes (20+ air yards) than Tua to Cheetah. I’m too lazy to look it up but it’s out there.
May 28th, 2024 at 1:56 pm
Pickgrin … ‘This chart says we have explosive WRs – not that we have an explosive QB’.
BINGO! Folks can use various stats to prove just about any point, IF they’re selective in the use of those stats (cherry-picking?), or IF they don’t analyze them properly (big-picture context?).
I can’t believe however Joe that you’re still trying to ‘make the case’ for Baker Mayfield. That ship sailed; he’s our designated starter. Could he have a great 2024? You betcha. Could he get benched after a handful of games? You betcha there too. The most likely outcome? He stays our starting QB for 2024 and beyond.
It’s actually more about the TEAM that surrounds Baker than it is about Baker himself IMOn and we’ve made some significant upgrades there. He’s had reasonably good years when surrounded by a decent offense. For instance, Cleveland went 11-5 in 2020 (scoring 405 points – 25.3 PPG) then ultimately got beat by the Chiefs 22-17 in the Division Championship game.
Of note, Browns had an excellent running game that year (#3 ranking in yardage with 2374 yards rushing scoring 21 TDs on the ground). Baker threw for 3563 yards that year (27 TDs) with a 62.8% completion rate against only a 1.6% INT rate (8 INTs). So having a strong running game (Browns ran on over 48% of their plays that year) seemed to help Baker’s passing game considerably. Hmmm, whodathunkit?
May 28th, 2024 at 2:15 pm
Todd isn’t gonna bench Baker for Trashk. That ship has sailed too. Would have happened for game 17 last season. It didn’t. A one legged half armed Baker gave the Bucs a better chance to win than Mike Glennon’s tarded cousin.
Now if you want to question the quality of the head coach who made that decision, you may be onto something
May 28th, 2024 at 2:37 pm
Well as that chart shows, the problem was his accuracy…
If that gets a little better, the offense easily averages another 3 -4 points per game.
Improve the run game, and then should also be good for another 3 – 4 points per game.
May 28th, 2024 at 2:46 pm
Huh?
Looking at that chart, I see a guy who is very inaccurate but benefited from a big YAC year from Evans to be a bit above normal in terms of ‘explosive’ plays.
What am I missing here?
I do know watching the games, Baker was wildly inaccurate on pretty much anything that was more than 10-15 yards downfield. Had he been more accurate, and actually hit Palmer on a few of the plays when he was running wide open, he’d be up there with Brock, instead of down on the bottom of the accuracy chart with Zack Wilson.
May 28th, 2024 at 2:50 pm
Dudes! It’s hard to complete your passes when you have pressure straight up the middle before you have a chance to make a read, and it also doesn’t help when your receivers drop passes. It also doesn’t help when you only get to pass when it’s 3rd and long because of your playcaller. Just wait!!!!!
May 28th, 2024 at 3:11 pm
Apparently, statistics are only useful to “cult members”……
Wow. COUCH FAN, didn’t think there could be a bigger 🤡 in these threads than The Throbbing Rod Muncher, but here we are
May 28th, 2024 at 6:11 pm
As a Baker fan I am realistic enough to realize that he is not elite. I do have the expectation that he can lead our team to championships, nevertheless. As noted Brad Johnson certainly was not elite either. Todd Bwles would not be considered an elite head coach but he has won me over also. I think our franchise is in good hands on all levels.
Go Bucs!!!
May 28th, 2024 at 8:19 pm
You can easily tell the casual soccer fans who don’t know football. Baker would’ve easily hit Godwin on those same routes if he’d ran them.
May 28th, 2024 at 8:44 pm
It was.also unsubstantiated in Cleveland. In 2020 bakes was considered top five in long ball accuracy. In the Bills game if Godwin had just turned one second earlier the Bucs would have had a walk off TD.
May 28th, 2024 at 11:16 pm
The point I believe is that all you folks that have been accusing Baker of being inaccurate are being proved wrong and will be proved wrong even more this coming season. In a couple of months you’ll be feeling it boys.Baker was right there with who?!?! 🤔 Explosive 😂
May 29th, 2024 at 5:22 am
Baker suffered early with deep ball accuracy because he was, for the 4th time in his career, playing with a completely new recieving corp. This might come as a shock to many people but throwing to someone who runs a 4.3 40 requires a completely different throw distance than throwing to someone who runs a 4.5 40. It’s why it’s so important to get as much time with your starters as possible so you can get a good feel for where they will be on the field when you throw.
As the season progressed Baker, as expected, became more accurate with his deep ball, also his first 3 years in the league he was top 10 in deep ball accuracy so anyone who believes the narrative that he doesn’t throw a good deep ball are probably the same people who believe he has a weak arm.
May 29th, 2024 at 10:02 am
Very interesting Farmer, 4.3/4.5. Makes sense
May 29th, 2024 at 10:22 am
Whatever Bakers stats say, they say. There is a whole lot more to football than a players stats. The point with Baker is he took a team that was supposed to win 4 games after Bradys departure to the edge of going to and winning the superbowl. Tampa lost by one score to the Lions, they could have just as easily won that game. The next 2 games were won and lost by a grand total of 7 points. Anybody that can’t see the possibilities there is either an idiot or just a Baker hater. Baker will win a team a superbowl. It’s just a question of who and when.
May 29th, 2024 at 10:42 am
I like Mayfield, a lot, but the icing on the cake is how he lives in the heads of all the haters.
May 29th, 2024 at 12:46 pm
Pro-tip, Baker will have a better year this go around. He was never the most athletic guy out there, never will be. His strength is his smarts. He’s at the experience level where you just don’t fool that guy disguising coverages. That’s how guys like Brady and Peyton play into the weak arm years. But, Baker is in the sweet spot where the arm is still lively and the brain won’t be fooled. The Super Bowl window is open
May 30th, 2024 at 12:54 am
So Couch fan basically said: ” Our QB is only as good as the wide outs catching the ball” Thanks genius, now you understand what five year olds do! “LMAO” Now if you just strain a little more, you might realize that that means the wide outs only can catch what the QB dishes out….yep, Mayfield was pretty extraordinary last season like the man said. Next time, instead of scoffing first, you might try try to at least understand what the words mean. ( It’ll help you sound less stupid sweetie)
May 30th, 2024 at 3:35 am
The chart says that Baker is 6th in yards generated by explosive plays of 20 yards or greater. In other words, the 6th most explosive qb in the league. The accuracy part doesn’t take into affect dropped balls. The point of the graph is he IS the 6th most explosive qb of the deep ball. Which is exactly opposite of what the haters have been saying. Mmm
May 30th, 2024 at 3:48 am
Patrick Mahomes deep ball catchable rate is 1.8% better than Baker. So I would say Baker is in pretty darn good company again.
May 30th, 2024 at 3:52 am
Josh Allen and Baker are tied on deep ball catchable rate. Again in darn good company.
May 30th, 2024 at 9:09 am
@couch fan,
If you were harassed up the middle as many times Baker was your accuracy ,like your opinion would suffer.
Give the guy a chance to settle in behind a solid line that gives him time and then make a call.
May 30th, 2024 at 11:01 am
A ton of couch coaches on here that never understood or played the game. The negativity is asinine. Go Bucs