Trade Back!
April 21st, 2024
Strategy.
We’re almost there (Joe lets out a very loud, audible sigh). It is draft week! Joe can see the light at the end of the tunnel. In just four more days, no more mocks!
(Joe used to pine for the start of the draft because, well, Joe enjoyed the draft so much. Now, Joe pines for the start of the draft to save the Western world from endless, mindless mocks.)
So when it comes to mocks, lest we forget, follicly-challenged Billy Barnwell of BSPN does one as well. This time, however, Joe happens to agree with Billy.
You see, Billy believes the Bucs would be better off trading back with the Lions, because, well, the Bucs need players. And Billy’s suggestion will appease the Robert Hainsey-is-Lucifer crowd as Billy said this extra pick would allow the Bucs to draft a center.
Lions get: 1-26, 3-92
Buccaneers get: 1-29, 3-73The Bucs have several needs that might just as easily be addressed early on Day 2, most notably along the interior of their offensive line. And one team that is probably not looking that way is the Lions, who have holes at edge rusher and cornerback and already have one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Moving down three spots would allow Tampa Bay to add another pick in the top 75, which is usually a reliable window for adding help at center and inside linebacker. The Lions would get back No. 92, which they sent to the Bucs earlier this offseason in the Carlton Davis deal.
But here is the problem: Is there a decent edge rusher later in the first round? Or a defensive tackle? Insider linebacker, there likely will be someone there.
With that extra pick in the third round, there are several ways Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht could go. Left guard, inside linebacker, corner, receiver, running back.
April 21st, 2024 at 8:15 am
That’s stupid. I’d rather just have a 4th free and clear. The flipping thirds is dumb. And there isn’t enough value on the gained spots in rd 3. Passssss. Demand additional pick value or move on.
April 21st, 2024 at 8:35 am
We should have kept that pick when we traded Davis……
I don’t like this proposed deal…..would rather drop out of round 1 for an extra 3rd, So we would have 2 2nd round picks and 3 3rds.
C/G, C, TE, RB, WR
April 21st, 2024 at 8:47 am
We are so close now. One position we really need is RB. I know many of us don’t think drafting a RB in rd 1 is a good idea. I just wonder when the run on RBs will start, and if the Bucs are in love with any of them. Will we miss getting one of the good ones? I am not saying draft a RB in round one. However, it is the one position where the Bucs may have the pick of the litter. In my opinion, we really need to nail that pick. Just a thought.
April 21st, 2024 at 8:50 am
lol… Joes if you really want to torture yourself with mock drafts go to YouTube
It more addictive and short lived high than meth
To make things worse many if not most have Chop Robinson as the pick.
Of course they all base their picks off of other mock drafts
Gahhhhhhhhh….
April 21st, 2024 at 8:50 am
* NOT a good idea…. lol sorry
April 21st, 2024 at 8:50 am
Well, no good edge either way, and Bucs aren’t gonna spend a 1 on a center
April 21st, 2024 at 8:54 am
No extra 3 rounder, just a higher pick in the 3rd…not sure if that would make sense! I guess it would depend on if a player they like slides down to 26.
Not totally against it!
April 21st, 2024 at 8:55 am
“ and Bucs aren’t gonna spend a 1 on a center”
Go watch the last game the Bucs played in the 2023 season against the Lions
April 21st, 2024 at 9:01 am
Jason needs to kill it this year. Don’t want to see some surprise pick that ends up busting again.
April 21st, 2024 at 9:07 am
Tampabaybucfan Says:
We should have kept that pick when we traded Davis……
I don’t like this proposed deal…..would rather drop out of round 1 for an extra 3rd, So we would have 2 2nd round picks and 3 3rds.
—————————————————————————
^^^^^Unless someone slides down to #26 that JL loves I bet he would jump on this deal! It would be great having 5 picks in rounds 2 & 3.
April 21st, 2024 at 9:10 am
Mock drafts with trades are like watching a kid play with army men.
April 21st, 2024 at 9:13 am
Don’t disagree with the sentiment SB~LV, just don’t think they’ll do it
April 21st, 2024 at 9:24 am
I like the idea of trading down to get an extra third round pick If one of the premiere players doesn’t slide to 26.
Not sure I’d go with this particular deal but I look around and see if I could do better.
It’s a week draft for Edge so taking a chance on Kamara with a late 3rd pick or 4th round pick is a good risk or just take another DT and move Kancey to Edge. Drafting a center or guard will be available in the 3rd. Need ILB, another CB, and a WR with the other 3 picks
April 21st, 2024 at 9:28 am
I am ok with this deal. To me we could be in a possible dead spot in both our 26th pick and our two late 3rd round picks.
For instance, the 26th pick may actually be a 2nd round value. I don’t have a problem with trading into the 2nd round but yet, there is also value to staying in the 1st round and having that 5th year option.
Also, having the 73rd pick might be the difference between having a skilled WR or Running Back or just choosing a left-over guys at those positions.
April 21st, 2024 at 9:29 am
Here’s my problem with this scenario. Barnwell says, “the Lions, who have holes at edge rusher and cornerback…” Seems like those are two holes we also need to plug. If the Lions think they can move up just 3 spots to get a decent player that fits a need, why wouldn’t we stay pat and grab that same player? We can grab a center in Round 2.
April 21st, 2024 at 9:36 am
Barnwell’s proposed trade back does NOT get the Bucs an “extra” pick.
Just swapping positions.
Lions pick 3 slots higher in the 1st – then the Bucs would pick 17 spots higher in the 3rd.
Big wow…. NOT
Bucs would be getting the better end of that deal according to the value chart but it would only make sense in a specific situation….
As in – Verse, Latu, JPJ and Barton are all off the board – as are CB Wiggins and LSU WR Thomas (who I consider our 2 best ‘contingency’ options at 26 if either is on the board and the big 4 are gone).
Perhaps then it makes sense to trade back 3 spots and and maybe grab C Frazier with pick #29….
But I saw a draft mock just yesterday that had the Lions taking Frazier at 29 – so if Detroit is targeting a Center with a high pick as well – then it makes no sense whatsoever and hurts the Bucs by letting them jump us in the 1st rd to take one of the guys we have targeted…..
April 21st, 2024 at 9:37 am
I would rather trade out of the 1st round and receive an extra 3rd round pick over just trading back two spots for a 3rd round swap…
D. Robinson with pick #33-#36 or so would be the way to go.
April 21st, 2024 at 9:38 am
My philosophy is that the mock draft talent rankings are not much more than guidelines. If you draft a position of need and that player was “ranked “ much lower or not typically taken at that spot but that player turns into a long term starter it’s all water under the transom . The Bucs absolutely have to address IOL where and when does not matter to me as long as they draft a long term starter.
We also have NEED at WR especially a explosive player, we have had excellent pass catchers for years.
April 21st, 2024 at 9:42 am
Tampabaybucfan, 100% agree on getting the 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, but I would target a little different. C/G, LB, C/G, Edge, T’Vondre Sweat (who, thank God for the DWI, should be available late in the 3rd).
April 21st, 2024 at 9:46 am
Billy, Don’t Be a Hero…Don’t Be a Fool With The Draft!
April 21st, 2024 at 9:51 am
Pick,
I’m with you until you got to Wiggins. I don’t think there is any way Bowles is ok with drafting a 6′ 2″ 170 pound corner that doesn’t tackle. Wiggins might be good in other schemes but our corners have to tackle. That’s where Zion has improved the most.
There is a real possibility that an edge drops to us and all 3 top centers are off the board before we pick. Miami and Dallas lost their centers. Pittsburgh needs a center and so does Green Bay. Buffalo needs a center as well but have more pressing need at WR.
April 21st, 2024 at 10:18 am
Would love the opportunity to trade all the way out of this 1st round all together.
April 21st, 2024 at 10:19 am
Toad..” Drafting a center or guard will be available in the 3rd.”
This sentiment is popular on this site and I think it is total BS. All of us want a premium center- why, we have a center already? Because we are not satisfied with what we have. You aren’t going to get one in the third round. Anyone picked in the third round is 50-50 to stick. We need as sure a thing as we can get. Unfortunately, that involves a first round pick.
April 21st, 2024 at 10:24 am
SOLD. I would do it, but only if both Barton and JPJ are long gone… And, if I cannot get a 2025 #1 (preferably from NE/Raiders/Broncos).
April 21st, 2024 at 10:26 am
I don’t know about any trades, we’ll see what happens…Who do I think the Bucs will take in the 1st Round? Ladd McConkey.
April 21st, 2024 at 10:27 am
I might request that an extra 2025 6th to be thrown in as well, just for good measure.
April 21st, 2024 at 10:33 am
WhatTheBuc –
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder I guess.
Wiggins is listed at 173 in some draft profiles and 185 in others. Not sure which was his official weight at the combine but he can obviously add 10-15 lbs no problem if needed.
Either way – Wiggins is a hell of an athlete and is 6’2″. Ran a scorching 4.28 40 at the combine so the kid can fly….
In 2 years starting at Clemson, Wiggins had 58 tackles (48 solo) – 17 passes defended – 1 sack – 2 forced fumbles – and 3 Ints with 1 returned for a TD.
He is either the 2nd or 3rd best CB in this draft depending on who is evaluating is a solid defender in various forms of coverage and most mocks have him being selected somewhere in the top 20. Better than Kool Aid for sure IMO.
April 21st, 2024 at 11:04 am
No way I see Ladd going to the Bucs in the first. Give me Troy Franklin over him
April 21st, 2024 at 11:26 am
I know the draft chart says the Bucs got more, but I don’t like this trade. We pick later in the 1st rd and have to still reach while not getting an extra pick.
If you are trading back, move back to the 2nd rd and get an extra pick or swap multiple picks (Bucs late 3rd and 4th for the other team’s early 3rd and 4th) like JL did in 2022 with Jax. My preference if the Bucs trade back with Wash
Bucs get #36, #78, #100 (5 x day 2 picks), #152
Wash gets #26, #93, #125
April 21st, 2024 at 11:33 am
Timing is everything. Whether to trade down or not depends on how the draft evolves, who’s still available & who’s willing to trade with you (still takes 2 to tango). This is one of those ‘crisis management’ decisions that you can’t pull the trigger on until the opportunity (and considerations) are smack dab in front of you. Even then, some you win & some you lose.
April 21st, 2024 at 11:43 am
Mock drafts with trades are like watching a kid play with army men.
ROTFLMAO! Joe is stealing that! 🙂
April 21st, 2024 at 11:47 am
What a god awful song that was. IYKYK
April 21st, 2024 at 11:49 am
Yeah thats a no for me…take our guy if he’s there…
April 21st, 2024 at 11:58 am
It will be harder to get a plug and play center if we trade down
April 21st, 2024 at 11:58 am
Yea DR – #26 in the 1st round is a tough spot.
Most teams only have 20 or so players graded as 1st round talents on their Big Board each year. So too often, a team picking at #26 is looking at mostly high 2nd round grades for players at the top of their board by the time the clock for pick #26 finally starts ticking.
That late of a 1st rd pick is almost impossible to ‘plan’ for because the variables for the who and when of the first 25 picks range in the hundreds realistically and the thousands statistically.
So the decision of what to do at #26 will by necessity have to be made on the fly.
We could trade up if Verse or Latu makes it to #20.
We could trade down if the 5-7 players Licht has targeted as good value for #26 are off the board and an acceptable trade can be consummated quickly.
Or we could just stand pat – let the draft come to us and pick the highest rated player on our board at a position of need or relative need at #26 which is usually what winds up happening in a case like this.
April 21st, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Move back three spots in 1 to move up 19 spaces in the 3rd?
What a stupid trade.
April 21st, 2024 at 12:14 pm
I endorse drafting the best IOL available at #26.
I am not anti-Hainsey, and have never read anyone wanting to run him out f town. He is serviceable in a pinch at multiple positions.
But the Bucs got slammed between the guards in ’23, and if that is not seriously upgraded, all the fancy-pants in the draft won’t improve the O in ’24.
I would not be disappointed if both 1 and 2 were IOL’s. Or 1 & a 3.
Lines win games. Fancy-pants sell tickets and get casuals to sport wood.
April 21st, 2024 at 12:16 pm
“Lions pick 3 slots higher in the 1st – then the Bucs would pick 17 spots higher in the 3rd”
There’s a LOT of guys that JL likely wants who would be in that range–his best picks always seem to be in this range. He isn’t gonna draft Powers, but the center from GA or WV might be in this range
April 21st, 2024 at 12:20 pm
26th pick is about the sweet spot for trading up or trading down imo. Especially if all the edge rushers are gone, right Joe.
We’ll see. Go Bucs!!!
April 21st, 2024 at 12:31 pm
Kalind- It could make a ton of sense. The highest guy on their draft board could still be there 3 picks later. It depends on who’s on the board. You have to assume their top guys are gone at that point or they would do the trade.
What could they get with an extra 3rd round pick? See below. This draft is thick with talent in the 2&3 rounds. All drafts are different. Some are top-heavy. This one is rich on day two. I even like day 3 at WR and RBS.
The Bucs have drafted five players in the third round who went on to garner Pro Bowl honors. In addition to Barber and Lynch, both Gramatica (1999) and CB Donnie Abraham (1996) made it in 2000. WR Chris Godwin (2017) was named to the all-star team in 2019.
April 21st, 2024 at 12:46 pm
Cobraboy. You are not moving up 19 spots in the 3rd. You are getting another 3rd round pick. Now you have 3 sweet 3rd rounders. And 5 picks in the top 100. All that for moving back 3 spots. And probably getting the same player. They only do these types of trades unless they are pretty sure its not going to hurt their first choice. A couple of years back Jason did this and said he had 3 players ranked the pretty even so they moved back 4 spots because the teams needs in-between lead him to believe all 3 wouldn’t be gone. I’m going by memory and can’t recall the player or year but its a common trade-back scenario.
April 21st, 2024 at 12:47 pm
That’s a stupid trade back, no way I’m giving up any pick to any team period. Either we pick up an extra pick or we stay and take BPA.
April 21st, 2024 at 1:09 pm
Its lovely, trade down to 29, then trade down to KC’s 32….Im all about it….Powers will still be there and then we can get Frazier too.
April 21st, 2024 at 1:10 pm
You’re not giving up a pick. You are swapping 1st round picks. They are giving up a pick. A 3rd round pick.
List of what the Bucs have done historically with 3rd round picks.
Barber
Lynch
Godwin
D. Abraham
Gramatica
Lots of good solid starters
I’m sure there are some misses too.
April 21st, 2024 at 1:18 pm
Hypothetical, trading back 2 times….we get two more 3rds (thats 4) plus we’re still at 57 and may be near the top of the 2nd or bottom of the 1st for Powers.
Powers or Barton
Bullard or Frazier
Estime and Kamara AND Trotter jr
Then if hes still there, DT/NT Sweat (have to trade into the top of the 4th or bottom 3rd)
yeah, that would be sweet
April 21st, 2024 at 1:24 pm
With that extra 3rd round pick they could get LVD’s eventual replacement in Lb like Kentucky ILB Trevin Wallace. That would free up the other two 3rd round picks for positions like LG, RB, CB or TE. The Bucs have tons of wholes to fill trading back makes a lot of sense.
April 21st, 2024 at 1:24 pm
Powers AND Frazier….lol its just wrong….we got Baker for 3 years, lets do it now 🙂
April 21st, 2024 at 1:27 pm
Spicy boiled crawfish.
April 21st, 2024 at 1:30 pm
I need a job working for you Jason and the Glazers….i know how
April 21st, 2024 at 1:45 pm
@Stanglassman: Bucs also give up a third.
April 21st, 2024 at 1:57 pm
Bucs are taking JPJ or Barton at 26-if neither is there -they may trade back, but Cooper Dejean would be so crazy good at 26 due to his incredible versatility, Plays Safety, Corner and extremely good return man. These rule changes are going to necessitate having a good returner.
April 21st, 2024 at 4:14 pm
What’s the point of waiting until the third to find a replacement for Hainsey? Hainsey IS what you get in the third. No point.
If they don’t use a first or a 2nd on an interior OL, they likely aren’t fixing it. The guys that would be upgrades will be gone.
I’d rather an OL than an edge rusher who can’t finish (Chop). We already have one of those in JTS and I wouldn’t be excited about a matching set.
April 21st, 2024 at 4:29 pm
Cobraboy. You are correct, my bad. It would be a 4th round pick straight up.
According to the draft chart the Buc’s pick @ 26 is worth 700 and the Lions 29 is worth 640. 700-640=60 points. 60 points is worth a mid 4th round pick straight up. Moving up 16 spots in the 3rd from 92 to 73 is still good value. The Bucs were plus 20 on the Jimmy Johnson ‘24 trade value chart. Equal to the first pick in the 6th.
April 21st, 2024 at 4:35 pm
Cobraboy. Aren’t you my Toe-mo kicker friend in Costa Rica? I could be remembering wrong its been awhile.
April 21st, 2024 at 6:19 pm
@Stanglassman: The DR, not CR. And we intend to move to Citrus/Marion County when our new house here sells.
April 21st, 2024 at 6:43 pm
I’m sorry, but moving down 3 spots in the first round and the only thing you’re getting out of it is a swap of third rounders, you’re not adding bodies.
That would be a bad trade.
If they did that Plus got a fourth rounder, then it’s worth it.
April 21st, 2024 at 10:31 pm
I’m pumped for the next Ira Kaufman podcast with Draft guru Sean Sullivan. I hope that each of the Joes plus Ira will identify who their pick would be alongside each of Sean’s picks.
April 21st, 2024 at 10:34 pm
Joes in the podcast with Sean Sullivan before mock drafting, I would like to hear (in order) what each of you (plus Ira and Sean) think are the Bucs biggest needs
April 22nd, 2024 at 4:25 am
I don’t like the idea of making a pretty good Detroit team better by letting them pick ahead of us. They very likely will be in our path if we progress in the playoffs.
April 22nd, 2024 at 8:16 am
How the draft will go …
1. The Bucs will try and move up for Verse.
If they can’t …
2. They’ll stick for DeJean or a top WR (yes, WR)
If neither is available …
3. They’ll try and trade down for an IOL.
I won’t be surprised if they trade out of the 1st all together.
April 22nd, 2024 at 8:32 am
there would need to be another pick from the lions for me to want to pull that
April 22nd, 2024 at 11:51 am
trade up for latu or verse
April 22nd, 2024 at 11:52 am
trade up for latu or verse.