The Most Accurate Mocker Predicts…
April 25th, 2024
Upon further inspection.
If this is correct, Joe can think of worse options.
Over the past five years, no NFL draft mocker has been more accurate than Brendan Donahue of Sharp Football Analysis. The website The Huddle Report tracks the accuracy of mockers — and yes, Joe values accuracy above all else when it comes to mocks. Otherwise, what’s the point?
Donahue tied with Eddie Brown of the San Diego Union-Tribune for the best score over the past five years.
Last year Donahue was eighth-most accurate, beaten in sixth-place by Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network. The rest of the dudes that beat Jeremiah and Donahue, Joe has never heard of them before.
For weeks in his past mocks, Donahue has had the Bucs selecting Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson. In his final mock, Donahue has held to his conviction. He’s sticking with Robinson to the Bucs.
Other players of note still on the board when the Bucs pick, per Donahue, are Illinois beastly tackle Johnny Newton and Washington quarterback Michael Penix.
Dang, Joe would have to think long and hard before passing on Penix. When is the next time the Bucs have a shot at a quarterback like that?
Joe is not a huge Robinson fan because of his lack of production. Maybe Joe has a mental block, but Joe cannot figure out how a guy who had just two sacks last season in college when not playing UMess will suddenly blow up and get five times as many sacks in a season playing in the NFL.
Now if you want to argue that overblown Penn State coach James Franklin and his staff weren’t using Robinson right, Joe is all ears. Robinson wouldn’t be the first such player Franklin screwed with.
(Joe got a Twitter last night from a Penn State fan telling Joe that Franklin couldn’t develop a roll of film from a disposable camera.)
Robinson seems to be for the pressures-are-more-important-than-sacks crowd. Joe doesn’t run with that crowd.
Personally, Joe would prefer a tackle who produced more sacks than Robinson, that would be Newton, and the Bucs would then have a ferocious, physical, punishing defensive line.
Just for s(p)its and giggles, prickly Pete Prisco of CBS also just published his final mock this morning. He too has the Bucs picking Robinson.
April 25th, 2024 at 1:06 pm
I’m with you Joe.
I’d take Newton over Chop in a heartbeat if we go D with our first pick.
I’d prefer we go OL though.
April 25th, 2024 at 1:11 pm
No Chop! Trade down.
After listening to the predraft Ira podcast – I still can’t believe Sean Sullivan thinks the Bucs are drafting Chop – WITH JPJ STILL ON THE BOARD!!!
I think I will lose it if that crap happens……
April 25th, 2024 at 1:15 pm
If it played out like that I would trade down so someone could take Penix and then draft C Powers-Johnson from Oregon. Get an extra 2nd or 3rd out of it.
Chop may end up awesome, I would just never take a flyer on someone in the first round. So far he is nothing but a combine warrior.
The other option would be trade up a few spots and get Verse
April 25th, 2024 at 1:17 pm
Ditto, Joe and doosh. I would take Newton over Chop too.
April 25th, 2024 at 1:18 pm
If Thomas is there you take him
April 25th, 2024 at 1:19 pm
Lmao Pickgrin….I hear ya!
April 25th, 2024 at 1:20 pm
David, in my opinion enough quarterbacks and tackles and receivers will go to leave the Bucs with a chance at Verse or Latu.
April 25th, 2024 at 1:23 pm
Newton. Kancey. Vita. Psh. Sign me up!!!
April 25th, 2024 at 1:23 pm
@ Dooosh
I agree with you.
The Bucs already have their 4-man OLB rotation set.
Our D-line rotation stinks – Hall, Gains and Gholston are all subpar and Greene should go back to the practice squad at best.
Besides IOL DT/DE is one of the Bucs greatest needs at the moment.
April 25th, 2024 at 1:28 pm
Chop is a bust. KISS
April 25th, 2024 at 1:29 pm
Eddie Brown mentioned in the article mock selected:
26. Tampa Bay (9-8) — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, Sr.
Here’s a curve ball. Current Bucs advisor and Super Bowl-winning coach Bruce Arians loves Penix’s deep-ball acumen and toughness. Top needs: Edge, IOL, CB
April 25th, 2024 at 1:36 pm
We have a lot of needs but drafting Penix would not make me mad.
April 25th, 2024 at 1:47 pm
Praying to God he is wrong.
April 25th, 2024 at 2:07 pm
Chop another Shaka Toney without gambling attachment. Speaking of Toney I think hes available. Pass on the Chop trade down.
April 25th, 2024 at 2:12 pm
Chop Robinson 6’2, 253 lbs, 40 @ 4.48
That’s a Von Miller clone. Von recorded double-digit sacks in college. Chop did nada.
Joe’s earlier article says, a Center is practically no risk. The Bucs need a Center. Why risk it?
April 25th, 2024 at 2:31 pm
I do not think Micah Parsons topped 10 sacks in a season at Penn State. Carl Nassib had about 15 there his senior year. Just bring him back.
April 25th, 2024 at 2:49 pm
JTS is also a phenomenal athlete…..
Anyhow, we have to replace Hall and JTS. The order doesn’t really matter to me, taking Newton at 26 fixes Hall
April 25th, 2024 at 2:50 pm
Ugh. Big mistake if they do. Just what the Bucs need, another JTS. Look like Tarzan, play like Jane.
April 25th, 2024 at 3:11 pm
Chop is not the same player as JTS. JTS is 6’5”, chop is 6’3”. JTS ran a 4.78, chop runs a 4.48. JTS is damn near 270, chop is 255. JTS had 8.5 sacks in his last year of college production, Chop had 4, but chop had 2 FF compared to JTS’ 0. Chop can supposedly stop the run and set the edge, JTS has needed time to get better at this aspect. I wouldn’t hate the pick of chop but I’d rather see us get stronger in the OL or depth at the DL because Logan Hall is a bust. I watch film and see him flailing around like a child and can’t understand why we picked him. I like Newton but I don’t mind chop and I don’t think he is a JTS clone. We need depth up front so let’s get it done already.
April 25th, 2024 at 3:18 pm
Larrd Says:
April 25th, 2024 at 2:31 pm
I do not think Micah Parsons topped 10 sacks in a season at Penn State. Carl Nassib had about 15 there his senior year. Just bring him back.
_________
I think Nassib was able to channel his inner-Sandusky a little more.
Butt
I digress…….
April 25th, 2024 at 3:22 pm
How about the other Robinson? Dude could play immediately because of his size and versatility. Trade back and get the true NFL body of Darius Robinson and replace Hall and add an edge versatile player who is proven in the SEC.
April 25th, 2024 at 3:26 pm
Chop wouldnt be my favorite but I wouldn’t totally hate it either if it was the pick.
April 25th, 2024 at 3:27 pm
I think Nassib was able to channel his inner-Sandusky a little more.
Butt
I digress…….
———–
I didn’t want to laugh at this but “Resistance was futile”
April 25th, 2024 at 4:02 pm
Trenches trenches trenches….. this is how you draft to build up a perennial contender. Focus on DL (including edge/OLB) and OL as the priority.
April 25th, 2024 at 4:11 pm
Joe I don’t think a coach can take the dog out of a player…if even ur un-coached or not schemed right…at some point natural instincts should kick in against inferior opponents and get more than 2! Just saying
April 25th, 2024 at 4:12 pm
In a 3/4 defense, how many Dts are there?
One.
2 De, Dt, 4 lbers, 2 safeties, 2 Cbers.
Usually we play 3 lbers and 3 cbs.
We havea DT named Vita Vea.
We have a DT named Calijah Kancey
They split the snaps 50% 50% last year.
We havea great backup named Greg Gaines.
We does another DT play? You want to talk Coach Boweles in to switching to a 4/3? Yeah, good luck.
A bnew Dt woyuldnyt have any playing time. Hed be sitting on the bench, watching us continue to struggle running the ball.
Because we *&$(&$ wasted a pick on a DT.
And draft a QB? To do what? We signed Mayfield for 4 years. We already wasted a Second round pick on Trask .
Now we waste a first round pick on a crippled rookie, he doesnt have the head to play in the NFL??
Yeah, I dont think so
April 25th, 2024 at 4:13 pm
Perennial contenders have franchise QBs. I’m not saying Penix is one but we weren’t calling Mahomes a great pick either.
April 25th, 2024 at 4:14 pm
If you look at the scores, and understand probability, their individual pick for a given team is more likely to be wrong than right (expected value).
Jose, I’m with you this time regarding productivity. That was Rich McKay and Dungy’s philosophy for the draft. They were less concerned with measurables and combine scores than with what they did under fire. It is pretty rare where a guy who did not produce in college suddenly becomes a star in the NFL. So I will too pass on Robinson.
April 25th, 2024 at 4:18 pm
Newton has short arms and small hands.
April 25th, 2024 at 6:15 pm
Come’n Joe. You know you don’t run.
April 25th, 2024 at 6:25 pm
Fix the O-line! If not, and if you’re still a Baker-Hater, pick a QB in every round. Maybe you’ll get lucky.
April 25th, 2024 at 6:58 pm
Michael Penix? I saw him described somewhere else as Jameis Winston without the special needs.