Weird Statistical Oddity
March 29th, 2024
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
Are the Bucs on the cusp of having another lockdown defense under Todd Bowles? Almost conflicting stats from last year point to the Bucs possibly having a strong defense this year.
First, the bad: The Bucs’ pass defense was awful last year. No edge rush (naturally, sigh), combined with cornerbacks getting hurt and virtually no safety play outside of All-Pro Antoine Winfield got the bad job done.
The Bucs gave up 248 yards a game through the air. That was fourth-worst in the NFL.
So here is the weird thing. Despite being a sieve with their pass defense, the Bucs were a top-10 defense in points allowed, eighth-best with 317 points allowed.
Maybe it is just Joe but it seems weird that a rotten pass defense would not lead to a lot of opponents points scored.
So given that the Bucs didn’t cough up too many points last season despite a terrible pass defense, if the Bucs tighten their belts in the secondary, could that turn the Bucs defense back into the 500-pound gorilla fans used to see under Bowles?
March 29th, 2024 at 4:17 am
Joe … ‘Weird that a rotten pass defense would not lead to a lot of opponents points scored’. Not at all Joe. Todd Bowles stays laser focused on what actually wins football games on the defensive side of things: Points Allowed.
TB’s defensive philosophy calls for stopping the run first & foremost (so did Mike Smith’s BTW, but I digress). He’s trained this defense to be very competent at stopping the run, but I’d contend that it’s come at the expensive of giving up passing yardage.
o 2019: Run defense: #1 … Passing defense: #30
o 2020: Run defense: #1 … Passing defense: #21
o 2021: Run defense: #3 … Passing defense: #21
o 2022: Run defense: #15 … Passing defense: #9
o 2023: Run defense: #5 … Passing defense: #29
Interestingly, 2022 is the anomaly in there. Passing defense improved dramatically, but our run defense fell off a cliff … and we ended up with a losing record. After losing Suh & JPP, looks like he modified his defensive philosophy somewhat in an attempt to compensate, and it bit him in the butt.
Also interesting, that 2022 defense, despite having the best-producing passing defense, generated the LOWEST number of takeaways (20) of any of those 5 years, and by a considerable amount. And oh ya, the LOWEST number of interceptions (10) of any of those 5 years. Weird huh. Maybe not. Got a hunch that TB knows what he’s doing, and knows his players better than any of us do. Just a hunch though.
March 29th, 2024 at 4:57 am
Agree with Defense Rules comment.
Bowles knows what he is doing. The players also respect him too. Win-Win.
March 29th, 2024 at 5:12 am
I don’t see how you replace two good linebackers and a starting corner with no new help up front. I know- some will say that all those players sucked and one was benched and one barely played. Now they will not contribute at all. Let’s hope they adapt
March 29th, 2024 at 5:15 am
What’s wierd is, no pod cast for nearly 3 weeks now… been tons to talk about too 🤔
March 29th, 2024 at 5:54 am
Despite some major team flaws (no running game, lack of a pass rush without blitzing) we were able to be successful record wise due to being –
#3 Opponent Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only)
#9 Turnover differential
GO Bucs!
March 29th, 2024 at 6:08 am
A pass rushing DE and LBer away from being a great defense!
March 29th, 2024 at 6:35 am
It’s simple. Bowles plays chess and he doesn’t care about passing yards given up until about the Bucs 35 yard line. That’s when his defenses begin to change and he starts to tighten down his coverages and blitzes to get a stop, sack or create a turnover.
Before the Bucs own 35 yard line his philosophy is stop the run and don’t give up the big play deep. That’s it.
March 29th, 2024 at 6:57 am
Alls I know is that if we could’ve got any kind of pressure without blitzing against Goff in that lions game, we would’ve made it to the championship game. There are certain Qb’s who do well against the blitz, and that’s Goff. Have to be able to get pressure with 4 from time to time.
March 29th, 2024 at 7:01 am
The website I looked at showed the Bucs were 5th in points allowed at 19.2 points per game average for 2023. Of their 19 games, they held their opponents under their scoring average in 13 games. Of the 6 games teams scored above their scoring average, only 1 team, the Texans, scored double digit points over their average (Bucs defense was terrible that game).
Did I think the defense looked good in 2023? No, for the most part. Was it as bad as some make it out to be? No, I think their hatred of Todd Bowles has skewed their thinking.
March 29th, 2024 at 7:39 am
Bowles got bailed out by Winfield time and time again. Probably saved his job
March 29th, 2024 at 7:50 am
its called bend but dont break defense
March 29th, 2024 at 8:28 am
I’m all for Bowles defense EXCEPT when the game is on the line…especially big game. He just gifts them 50 yards and squeezes his but cheeks and hopes the other team screws up.
Really, all the opposing team has to do is play catch and not screw up. That is frustrating and hoping to win.
March 29th, 2024 at 8:31 am
In 22, teams ran on us so well, they didn’t pass…..
Our defense was very strong in the red zone & got some takaways….that’s why the yardage was up and the scores down.
March 29th, 2024 at 8:59 am
It’s a lot easier to defend once they get down to the 10 yard line. 7 minute drive after 7 minute drive, only to give up chip shot FG. I wonder how many field goals we gave up last year?
March 29th, 2024 at 9:08 am
@Joe says: “So given that the Bucs didn’t cough up too many points last season despite a terrible pass defense, if the Bucs tighten their belts in the secondary with better pass defense, could that turn the Bucs defense back into the 500-pound gorilla we are used to under Bowles?”
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Stopping opponents from scoring points is the single most important objective of a defense and our red zone defense was very good last season which kept opposing teams from scoring many points.
The jury is still out on Bowles as a HC but at times he’s been great when running the defense. If his new OC is as good as advertised this can be a dangerous team and take another step forward.
If Licht nails the draft again in 2024 and 2025 and brings in the right depth pieces via free agency its realistic to believe we can and should go deep into the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a rematch with the Chiefs in another Super Bowl in the next several years.
March 29th, 2024 at 9:16 am
Run stopping looks good but that is due to being so easy for teams to PASS. As for points allowed, look at the lousy teams they faced. Will be interesting how they will do with a first place schedule this year.
March 29th, 2024 at 9:18 am
Joe … ‘Weird that a rotten pass defense would not lead to a lot of opponents points scored’.
I don’t find this to be too anomalous. The NFL is a solid bell curve when it comes to ppg. In 2023, 18 teams averaged between 19 – 23 ppg without much separation. The remaining 14 team were evenly split with 7 teams above 23.9 ppg and 7 teams below 19 ppg.
With that in mind and Todd’s philosophy to stay close and win it with a 50 yard fg, it dies not surprise me that yardage allowed does not directly correlate to ppg. One interesting note, the bucs lost to every team the playe who averaged above 23 ppg. This is the Todd effect, bend but don’t break, which works both ways and leads to home losses against sorry division rivals like yhe falcons
March 29th, 2024 at 9:21 am
Opponents kicked 29 field goals vs. the Bucs in 2023. 29 for 31, so most of them were probably from close range.
March 29th, 2024 at 9:25 am
ChiBuc: The Bucs beat 3 teams that averaged over 23 ppg, Philly (playoffs), Green Bay, and the Saints.
March 29th, 2024 at 9:41 am
BucFan,
We had a first place schedule this year. 3 time defending NFC South Champions. 2nd time Coach Bowles has won the South. Coach Arians won it hid last year.
Weve done ok with first place schedules.
March 29th, 2024 at 10:25 am
Upgrade at cb and get a pass rush should fix this. 🤞
March 29th, 2024 at 10:38 am
Shane,
The starters are Jameel Dean and Zyon McCoulloh. Zyon played more snaps last year than Davis or Dean. Christian Izen is our Slot CB.
Web signed two guys for depth, plus the rookies from last year.
Why do you want to draft a CB?
Id like to get a Cb to replace Dean, but far less of a critical item than Guard/DE/Center. They planned to replace Davis with Zyon. Thats why Davis was available to trade.
March 29th, 2024 at 11:07 am
Some talent improvement gets a lot of attention. Some does not and flies under the radar for out of town “experts”.
I agree with Joe that Winfield was like the Lone Ranger back at safety. Whitehead is a LOT more that just a simple fix for that problem. He can actually take it up a notch over most safeties in terms of hitting and playmaking. Is there a better pair of safeties in the league?
I’m big on the Whitehead signing!!! That’s an under the radar move for casual fans and out of towners that’s going to show up big.
A question for all. Is it a waste of time to say all observations and predictions are dependent on the LUCK of staying healthy? It’s obvious so perhaps it doesn’t need to be said. Injuries change EVERYTHING.
March 29th, 2024 at 11:08 am
If our pass rush put faster pressure on opposing quarterbacks every aspect of our defense would have been better. We need more consistent pressure, bottom line we don’t let the quarterback get set and make his reads we will have a top 5 defense. It’s that simple, it’s just not simple to accomplish.
March 29th, 2024 at 11:22 am
I mean this has sort of been the whole mentality as far back as Monte’s unit. go heavy run defense to hopefully get a 3rd and long, dont give up a homerun and you take a chance trying to get a turnover. the team doesnt care if we give 90 yards a drive as long as that drive ends without giving points. our third and long defense was pitiful last year, but by design. they arent trying to stop, they are trying to take away. you whiff, they get a first and you set it up again figuring eventually you are going to hit on a coverage the qb misread.
March 29th, 2024 at 1:42 pm
The Bucs played a ton of bad zone defense, in particular early in the year, where they let teams move the ball at will – BUT it would tighten up in the redzone.
Later in the year, when Bowles was on the hot seat and people were ready to run him and his boi Baker out of town, he finally switched things up and started playing more man to man and bringing pressure occasionally with some of his alleged ‘exotic’ blitzes, and the defense actually started to get opposing teams off the field every once in a while. Also, no, when you play a 5-2-4, rushing 5 is not a ‘blitz’ – so no, the Bucs were not one of the leading ‘blitz’ teams in the NFL last year, despite the fake news saying they are.
Anywho, considering Bowles dumped two of his starters that were bad in zone, that tells you everything – we’re going to see a lot more zone next year! YAY! Can’t wait for all those 14 and 16 play drives on defense where they play 10 yards off the LOS and give up 5 yards on every play and can’t get anyone off the field! Gonna be great.
I seriously hope I’m wrong. There’s nothing wrong with zone, the 2002 Bucs playing THE best defense of all time and they played zone. But go watch the ALL22 , when Bowles run zone, it is so sloppy and loose and passive, it’s really frustrating to watch.
March 29th, 2024 at 2:20 pm
Defense rules: ever thought about putting out your own website on the Bucs?You are always super insightful and I appreciate your takes.
March 29th, 2024 at 3:00 pm
Playing good zone in the secondary requires communication, recognition, quick feet and trust and it was hard not to scream at the tube last year,{ I have a 4 broken remote record in 1 game}. Whitehead will certainly help with that and the run game.
Teams that are stopped in the run usually will tend to pass and with those attempts the chances for a pick go up, easy math. It’s a balance and lets not forget the pass rush has to get home in critical situations or have knocked the QB around, that will move him off his mark and int. chance goes up. The biggest thing that bothered me last year was having a team backed up only for them to get out and then, if not move down the field then back us up. Lots of solid comments on here guys.
March 29th, 2024 at 4:07 pm
Two word answer. Todd Bowels.
One word answer.
No.
He’s too much of a genius to change. Any coach who has players cut out for press-man coverage who forces them into Cover 3 with multiple options and variants, and a Diva LB who didn’t know any of his assignments aside from blitzing, has already shown his hand. It’s all about his genius scheme, not about scheming to the players’ strengths.
March 29th, 2024 at 4:26 pm
@Joe in Michigan Says:
March 29th, 2024 at 9:25 am
ChiBuc: The Bucs beat 3 teams that averaged over 23 ppg, Philly (playoffs), Green Bay, and the Saints
You are right, wrong, and somewhere between. I apologize that I did not explicitly state that I was staying in the belk curve range eluded to in my post of 19 – 23.9 ppg. By not beating any team >23 ppg, I meant 24 ppg or greater. As such, the win against the Saints (23.6 ppg) meets the criteria outlined. Also, I am referencing seasonal stats (17 game regular season) which do no include playoff games, so that weird blowout of Philly in the playoffs was not under consideration, but the regular season loss to Philly (25.5 ppg) is. Regarding GB, you’re just wrong. GB averaged 22.5 ppg. But thanks for participating
March 29th, 2024 at 5:18 pm
The website I looked at had Green Bay at 23.8 ppg, I looked elsewhere and it shows 22.5, so you are correct on that one.
March 29th, 2024 at 5:24 pm
It’s funny, everyone uses the playoff games to say Bowles is under .500. Whatever fits your narrative.