Warren Sharp: Numbers Say Baker Mayfield Having A Career Year Was Fake News
March 12th, 2024
Can’t please all the people.
While most (not all) Bucs fans are celebrating their Pro Bowl MVP quarterback coming back for another two seasons, maybe three, one man has cold evidence that suggests there should be no celebrating.
Handicapper turned statgeek Warren Sharp is not trying to urinate on anyone’s parade. But he openly scoffs at anyone who suggests Mayfield had a career year with the Bucs and, armed with statistical evidence, argues Mayfield had a wildly overrated 2023.
While Sharp gave Mayfield props for ending the season on a hot streak that earned him tens of millions of dollars, Sharp is convinced Mayfield won with smoke and mirrors. He makes the case that it was Rachaad White turning into a elite receiver out of the backfield that propelled Mayfield to his new Bucs contract.
… when targeting RBs last year, Baker had insane numbers.
Out of 35 QBs, he ranked:
#2 in completion rate (87%) (career high)
#4 in EPA/att (+0.15)
#6 in YPA (6.8)
#10 in success rate (44%)When not targeting RBs, he ranked:
#17 in EPA/att
#21 in success rate
#22 in YPA
#30 in completion rate
Sharp goes on to point out, statistically, how Mayfield struggled more than most think and that Mayfield statistically had three better seasons in Cleveland than he had with the Bucs.
(Joe will counter that White’s effectiveness as a receiver fell off dramatically late in the season. Including the playoffs, he had only 119 receiving yards through his final five games.)
Throw in that the Bucs had too-close-for-comfort wins over Carolina and Atlanta and an overall weak schedule, Sharp is of the mind Mayfield is due to regress in 2024.
Now if you want to argue that the Bucs should still draft quarterback Michael Penix at No. 26 next month and have him sit in case Mayfield implodes, Joe’s OK with that. Joe isn’t sure what Sharp expected the Bucs to do, go sign Jacoby Brissett? Damaged goods Kirk Cousins?
Whine about the Bucs taking advantage of a soft schedule but they still (with Mayfield going crazy) stomped the Eagles and had the Lions on the ropes.
It’s not like Mayfield is the second coming of Mitch Trubisky.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:05 am
Had the lions on the ropes?
What game were you watching?
March 12th, 2024 at 7:06 am
I think Sharp is a bit misleading. The stats he puts out indicate to me that, as Joe has pointed out ad nauseum, White is an elite receiver out the back field. We get it. Factor in a new (yet again) offensive scheme for Baker to learn, new receivers, new linemen etc., I think he did really well, especially toward and the end of the year and he killed it in the playoffs. Bakers first year kind of mirrors Brady’s first year and slow start.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:16 am
It is what it is at this point he’s back. If you go back and watch some of his games in the first half he was terrible and then his numbers got inflated in the second half when they’re trying to come back he probably had four Clunkers and three or four really good games. I would say he’s an average NFL quarterback he won’t win the Super Bowl for you and probably won’t even get you there but it’s serviceable. Ultimately we have a s*** head coach who will do whatever he has to do to stay 500 just to hold on a little longer.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:24 am
You RUN to the podium if Penix is on the board, and I like Baker.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:27 am
Agree. People have on blinders but let’s hope for the best like I said before prove me wrong baker. Certainly not my choice but I will tolerate you until I replace you. Just thinking could have had Brissett( who outperformed baker in Cleveland or Minshew for the cheap. Would have been able to pick up Barkley or Henry and a pass rusher and a center lol. Still believe his numbers were padded by yak and most of it was 4th qtr
March 12th, 2024 at 7:30 am
That 26th pick better be for the C from Oregon.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:35 am
At Licht was smart enough to design Mayfields to give the Bucs an out after the first year if he falters.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:40 am
Whats needed is interior OL reinforcement.
It literally is as simple as that.
If Jason Licht can somehow manage to identify and acquire above average talent for just 2 spots between now and September (Center and LG) – this offense – with Baker throwing to Evans and Godwin and White will be among the league’s best.
We have a good QB and great “weapons” – but it all starts up front
Put a consistently solid OLine (that can open some running lanes) in front of Baker Mayfield and he’ll look every bit like a top 10 QB this year.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:52 am
Boss, do you have any idea how much better the world would be without you? Wish we could do a reverse it’s a wonderful life with you.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:52 am
Real Buc fans know we got finessed here. But the deal wont cripple us too bad when the train derails. In 2 years, our rebuild shouldnt take the better part of a decade. Im thinking 2-4 years before we can start being excited again. We’ve been strangely spoiled to start this decade off and better outlooks will be on the horizon around 2029-2030. Buckle up, Buc mates. This next 3 years will be rocky to say the least. Go Bucs!
March 12th, 2024 at 7:56 am
The Bucs are going to be the under dogs again.
Love it.
Upgrade the interior OL and RB positions. Also the Bucs can sign a vet edge rusher and draft another they are going to be a dangerous team.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:57 am
I think Warren Sharpe is pointing out the obvious. His stats simply confirm what a lot of us saw on with our own eyes. Mayfield is mediocre, but he had enough good moments to justify his new contract. If we can build a strong team around Mayfield, the Bucs will be a team that can contend for a playoff spot each year.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:57 am
Haters are going to hate. You can’t change a hater’s mind. Baker had a helluva year, as did the Bucs. Haters will find a way to diminish that, too. Many of the commentators have the same “hateful” disease, and they also ignore the stats when favorable to Baker and earn a living off of hating. Commentators that were never half the athlete that Baker is. Most haters and commentators let their jealousy get the best of their rationale. The Bucs are fortunate to get Baker back, and Baker is fortunate to be back with the Bucs. Be happy and get ready for an exciting season of NFL and Buc-mania!!! Don’t be such a bummer…
March 12th, 2024 at 8:00 am
Baker Mayfield is a one read quarterback, if Mike Evans isn’t open, he throws to the running back. Mayfield owes Mike Evans and Rachaad White half his paycheck
March 12th, 2024 at 8:00 am
I felt like when we were more aggressive (see Green Bay game) our offense was pretty good – just like our defense when we blitz and go man to man….
I don’t think we broke the bank with Baker so I’m fine with the signing. But there may come a time where we need to rip the Band-Aid off and rebuild this thing… 8 -9 won’t win our division forever.
Go Bucs!
March 12th, 2024 at 8:04 am
Doosh La Rue
Exactly.
The Center from Oregon. Or a trade down and get him a few picks later.
Hainsey was a RT from Notre Dame. He has no hamstrings or quads.
Look at this legs. He’s so weak bro.
I’m happy to have Hainsey as a backup with experience.
But he’s not a starting center in the NFL by any means!
1st round: Center
2nd round: Left guard
Wirfs is going to be expensive.
We need 2 rookies on rookie contracts to match with Wirfs.
Wirfs will be the highest paid LT in the NFL.
So we can’t afford a free agent guard or center.
But we can afford two early round draft picks to play alongside Wirfs and Mauvh and Goedeke for the next 4 years!
And sign Derrick Henry.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:10 am
Stop with Derrick Henry.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:13 am
He had Rachaad White open a lot, gotta take advantage.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:14 am
Sharp is anything but. And not exactly unbiased when it comes to Baker.
PLEASE! For all the Haters out there, who are greatly outnumbered according to a recent Joe Poll, name one QB who doesn’t need talent around him to win? Even the best QB in the league (Mahomes) had 6 losses last year and easily could of had 8! Plus he didn’t wake up in the Super Bowl until the he 4th quarter. He must really suck, lol.
Improve the O-Line and we’ll contend.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:15 am
So we have a new Captain Checkdown. 5 or 6 wins against a tough schedule.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:19 am
Comments. 1. Every QB everywhere relies on an RB to dump off too. 2. The fact he had two good playoff games without using Whyte much means he learned to diversify. 3. The fact that he had 3 better seasons in Cleveland is good news. He has the ability to get better and has proven it. His revert To the mean as many people say is actually higher than this season. 4 mr. Not so sharp is not factoring in a new team, new division, new play caller and new HC. That is why he finished strong He got used to everything. 2024 most things dont change for him. The new OC is a guy he already worked for who has way more experience than Canales did this time last year. 5. Bakman is the opposite of Jackson, DAk, Hurts and Cousins. He is better in the playoffs than regular season. The weak division works in his favor. Just make the plaYoffs and he plays elite. Jackson is elite then regresses to below average in playoffs.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:29 am
Rover telling Bucs fans to buckle up cuz we’re in for a rough ride after just playing in the divisional round of the playoffs lol …so you started being a Bucs fan in 2020 huh? Cuz let alone winning a playoff game but making playoffs is special for every team especially this one that’s seen hard times (13 years no playoffs) you should touch grass and lighten up a bit friend baker is the least of our problems
March 12th, 2024 at 8:30 am
I also recall watching Brady dump off to running backs all the time because it is often the smart decision to take what the defense gives you no shame in that
March 12th, 2024 at 8:33 am
Ko Kiefer Says:
March 12th, 2024 at 7:24 am
You RUN to the podium if Penix is on the board, and I like Baker.
I agree, in fact hire a track star to run to the podium.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:38 am
So Mayfield can be better than last year? That’s another way to look at it.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:39 am
I agree with Warren Sharp and Pickgrin.
Baker Mayfield is our starter for the next three years, I hope.
Not looking for us to draft a quarterback.
We seem to have a start of a good offensive line with Wirfs, Mauch, and Goedeke (except for him in that Detroit game). There very well may be better than average interior offensive lineman for us available when we pick in both the 1st and 2nd round. Let’s get either Barton or Powers-Johnson in the 1st.
I prefer Barton. I love the size of Powers-Johnson, but I worry he could end up on the same career path as the oversized Mekhi Becton from the 2020 draft who I liked better than the more technical Tristen Wirfs.
This time around, I will favor the more technical Graham Barton.
But whatever the Bucs do in the draft, I will support. They have certainly been above average lately.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:39 am
Three better statistical years in Cleveland? But all this time Rodney Munch said he had a career year here. I’m confused.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:49 am
Pa Bucs fans,
I have footballs with signatures from Cato June, Ike Hilliard and Derrick Brooks. Hear me when I say, Id hardly be excited about barely pinching Detroit in a divisional round after beating a wailing Eagles team. Didnt Heneike and the commanders almost beat Brady and our super bowl winning Bucs on wild card weekend in 2020? Heard anything from them since? The mediocrity we accept here is a part of the culture that allows Baker to be viewed as a franchise QB here. Please Buckle up, friend. If you’ve been around as long as I have, you know whats to come. Go Bucs!
March 12th, 2024 at 8:50 am
What game were you watching? It was tied in the fourth quarter.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:02 am
Seems like an unfair stat. I bet a lot of QBs look worse when not targeting talented, high-volume players on their offense.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:10 am
Add back all the dropped (that should not have been dropped) passes and rework the numbers. Baker earned his keep. Sharp can kiss my Trask!
March 12th, 2024 at 9:11 am
Plant HS could have beaten the Fleagles in the playoffs.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:15 am
K2 Says:
March 12th, 2024 at 7:35 am
Warren makes sense. in 2023 Baker was:
15th in yards per attempt
14th in yards per completion
19th in completion percentage
Ho-hum.
——————-
So cute how these stats somehow prove that Baker sucks but Brady finished dead last in yards per attempt and yards per completion in 2022 and he WASN’ T the reason we sucked worse on offense and most of y’all wanted him back. Brady was DREADFUL in yards per attempt and completion throwing to almost the exact same receivers.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:19 am
The argument that “he won’t win a super bowl for you” narrow the field of elite quarterbacks considerably; Maholmes, Stafford, Wilson, Flacco, Rodgers. That is it among active QBs. Not the guy in Baltimore who continues to disappoint in the playoffs; same in Buffalo; same in Philly; guy in Cincy is injury prone; lots of hype about others, but hell the guy in San Diego hasn’t even made the playoffs Baker is a second tier QB like all the rest. Stafford is at a dangerous age; Rodgers has had umpteen chances; Flacco is a nobody wanted; Wilson is trouble in the clubhouse. So let’s not get carried away with elite. Sure lots of guys have better numbers but the games are played with 22 guys on the field.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:20 am
Warren Sapp is a crude dude. Wouldn’t want my kids around a guy who has an ample 4 letter word vocabulary. Don’t care what he thinks or says. Jason Licht and the Glazer Family are writing the checks and they are the only ones that matter.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:23 am
Checking down to the RB to avoid a sack or interception. Sounds pretty reasonable to me. Throw in the fact that Canales couldn’t get Godwin involved like he’s been in the past and those are the stats you’d expect to see. Buc’s as an organization stresses not turning the ball over to the point of being conservative. This is more about team philosophy than what the QB can and can’t do.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:25 am
Take a look at Maholmes numbers last year. Quite average. Not much better than bakers. There is a famous book titled how to lie with statistics. If stats were all that important wagering on NFL football would be simple. But 97% of players are losers.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:28 am
If Warren Sharp was so smart he would be winning handicapping NFL football games. He is not. Also trust me drafting a quarter bank in the first round is a crap shoot. The odds are greatly waited against you.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:34 am
Some of you must have been hit in the head with batted down Baker passes. He is an average NFL QB.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:37 am
Why does everyone have to be a hater? Mayfield had one of his best years if not his best year in the NFL. He has OC and HC after OC and HC after OC and HC. Let’s build on last year and see where it goes. As far as taking away the RBs out of the backfield, did Warren remove all the RB catches from all the QBs last year to rate Mayfield; I’m thinking not because it wouldn’t fit his narrative. I’m happy for Baker and wishing the Bucs every success next year. Go Bucs!
March 12th, 2024 at 9:39 am
Yes Baker was up/down last year but he did that with the worst run offense in the league and two unknowns on the right side.
A year of experience for the young offensive players and adding more interior beef means that this offense is going to improve.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:39 am
Also, we have a great defense and a very good offense; let’s get a running game and win the big games where it isn’t on the QB shoulders to make every play. Go Bucs!
March 12th, 2024 at 9:55 am
The baker hate is nasty. I’ve never seen so much hate for a qb that was top 10-15 stat wise and took this team the playoffs and won a game. I don’t care if he checked down to a RB I’d rather him do that then throw an INT or fumble the ball. How many 1st downs did he make with his legs? Was that included in the stats? Strengthen the o line and get Graham Barton and either Cooper Beebee or Sedwick Van Pran.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:01 am
Warren Sharp will do and say anything with his numbers to support his pre season bull spit. Can never admit when he was wrong.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:12 am
Maybefield is just average at best and teams shouldn’t rely heavily on him to win games. They should use the 1st pick to give him as much help as possible, unless the team is prepared to move up in the draft to get the QB they want. Maybefield’s led teams will require all the help they can get.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:13 am
You don’t get to tell QBs to protect the ball and take the safe play and live for another down and be smart… and then when they do it, and succeed with it, claim it’s a detriment.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:26 am
I agree with the above comments – Bucs need to fix the O-line if they want Baker Mayfield to improve – especially with his deep throws accuracy.
The Bucs allowed way too much pressure from up the middle due to our rookie RG and weak center and LG.
I hope they pick up a solid free agent guard and draft a new center. Hainsey should be a back-up not a starter.
Much needs to put on about 20 lbs of muscle and stay as athletic as he was last season.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:27 am
If baker has a similar season to last year if not better season, will all the haters on here shut the **** up and just support the team and the qb. If Tampa really wants to win, you don’t draft an injury prone qb in the draft, you build up that offensive line some more and draft some defensive back help and some edge rushers, maybe a line backer. But I think it would be fair for the baker haters to be quiet if baker has a similar year or a better year, there’s not gonna be a fall, he’s never had bad season with him being 100% healthy, so why would he regress next year when he’s basically going to have the same team
March 12th, 2024 at 10:27 am
* Mauch not Much…lol
March 12th, 2024 at 10:32 am
So, Troy Aikman was garbage because he had talent around him, including Emmitt? Who is the QB supposed to throw to?
The real barometer whether Baker was successful is whether the team imploded with him. Nope. Didn’t happen. Mike Evans lobbying for Baker and not Trask is as far you need to go digging.
With a horrible OL for at least half a season, where was Baker going to throw the ball? He had career numbers at the end of the season. How it happened, doesn’t matter when you were 1 game away from the NFC Championship. Oh, and we had a rookie OC. How about he shoulder some of the responsibility, even though Canales did well also.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:48 am
LOL – you can take any QB stat and spin it so they look like crap against the other top 25 QBs in the league. How many teams had the 32nd best running game in the league? Which teams had the most 3rd and 7+. How many QBs struggle in the basic offense statistically and turn it on in the 4 minute drill?
You can parse al the numbers you want. The ones that matter to me are
1. Division titles
2. Playoff victories
3. Overall Passer (QB) Ratings – not the stupid ESPN version
If Baker and the Bucs achieved all of the above because of great defense, stellar run game, a can’t fail offensive play caller like Shenahan, then okay we can discount the QB’s contribution. I think all of the above the results for all three of above were because of Baker Mayfield. We don’t win the division title, win a playoff game or have a Top 15 in QB Rating under center with any of the other options available at the beginning of the 2023 preseason. We don’t have any of those options available to us better than Baker at the beginning of the 2024 season outside of miraculously drafting the next Lamar Jackson at #26.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:57 am
Baker should have gone to the Vikings for $70M guaranteed and $110M Total over 4 years. The Viking fans would have cheered his toughness and playoff success over the 1/6th of a Billion Dollars they spent on Cousins for very little post season results.
Then we could have moved on from a playoff winning QB to play Fields, Trask or a new QB to learn this very complex offense.
$33M per year with incentives to $38M per year for 3 years is not a Career Year contract. Daniel Jone’s contract, Kyler Murray’s contract and Justin Herbert’s contracts were Career Year contracts. Got to agree, Baker fleeced himself again to give the team a nice hometown discount because he cares about winning and team building. After Daniel Jones is cut, this will be the 17th highest QB annual average contract. Baker trying to use the Tom Brady playbook of building a championship TEAM is not appreciated by a small chunk of the media and fan base. Hope he can use that to put more chips on his shoulder.
Quite resilient considering he could have taken a bigger contract and use contract value to prove the doubters wrong rather than playoff success.
March 12th, 2024 at 10:59 am
K2 Says:
March 12th, 2024 at 9:03 am
“Bucs fans are celebrating their Pro Bowl MVP”
You call preseason games “meaningless” and then “celebrate” a flag football game? LMAO
That is correct. When I was reading about Minshews signing at least that writer didn’t try to make him sound like it was something earth shattering.
Quote was “Minshew made his 1st Pro Bowl in 2024 as an Alternate”
Had the true Pro Bowl QB’s played Mayfield’s MVP that weekend would have meant he was ‘Making Vacation Plan’s.
March 12th, 2024 at 11:00 am
I do not agree with him picking out that stats that support his claim.
If using stats to judge a QB, the average of all stats combined is the best indicator of his ability.
Last year, his average put him at the 16th best QB. Low and behold…his contract puts him at the 16th QB in terms of salary.
March 12th, 2024 at 11:16 am
Baker did a very difficult thing coming here. The experts from the fake news and the local trolls here in the snake pit treated him like trash from day one and never let up focusing on his every mistake and backhanding and belittling his every success. Never the less Baker came in here as a total stranger and facing endless hometown doubts and suspicion he took a frazzled mentally anguished team hungover from their moment of glory but talent depleted by the loss of so many superstars and facing CAP purgatory and he proceeded to relight the Bucs Fire with notable success followed by more success ,followed by a div championship . Just like the way he re kindled the Moribund Cleveland Browns and just like the thur night he bailed into LA on two days notice to reignite the talent depleted Ram second stringers to a come from behind victory over Derek Carrs Raiders..That id what Baker does and will continue to do.
Try to deny it all you want haters but like the song says ” he got the action. He got the motion. Oh yeah the boy can play. Dedication, the devotion turning all the night time into the day”.
Bucs will be fine with Baker for many years to come. Baker and the Bucs are going to upset the NFL apple cart this year .
March 12th, 2024 at 11:20 am
Buccaneer Bonzai Says:
“I do not agree with him picking out that stats that support his claim.
If using stats to judge a QB, the average of all stats combined is the best indicator of his ability.
Last year, his average put him at the 16th best QB. Low and behold…his contract puts him at the 16th QB in terms of salary.”
Being an NFL QB is one of the hardest jobs and they get paid like it. These armchair NFL experts have one of the lamest jobs. Making points for clickbait and finding confirmation bias data. They are right and wrong as most of us on forecasting team and player success. These same people were probably touting Sam Darnold as a can’t miss most upside lowest ceiling QB in the 2018 draft. Or Lamar Jackson as a project QB. I guess it is fun to tell them they are wrong after the season. Someone should make a living keeping receipts on all these pontificators who never wore a jockstrap.
March 12th, 2024 at 11:25 am
I agree with Sharp 100%. That’s what intelligent fans have been posting since last season. It’s only the hysterical Baker love interests that are blind to reality.
March 12th, 2024 at 11:27 am
Baker took an 0-16 browns team, and 2-30 (or so) overall the previous two years, an absolute sewage waste of a franchise for over a decade and ended a more than decade long playoff drought. Were the browns, panthers, or LA good teams when he got there? Hell no, LA was okay at best.
He had numerous different head coaches and offensive coordinators in Cleveland and then also from switching teams (typically not very helpful but OH NO THE COMPLETION %). The likes of which include the illustrious Hue Jackson (0-16 season under his belt)Mr. HOF Kevin Stefanski, and Peaked-in-college Matt Rhule.
Also, this guy really just used qb wins 😂 he’s aware theres 52 other players on the team during those wins and losses, correct?
Is he also not aware of the qb market? Clearly just utterly oblivious in so many facets
March 12th, 2024 at 11:29 am
Agree, agree, agree, stats say it all!!
March 12th, 2024 at 11:31 am
Furthermore, his contact is very reasonable for the current market. And wow, shocker…….winning 5 of your last 6 and winning a playoff game gets you re-signed!! Who woulda thunk that? What a clown-written article from Warren Not So Sharp
March 12th, 2024 at 11:34 am
Mayfield targets a good receiving RB, and it’s bad news? Stats don’t lie, but you can get carried away by them. His teammates love him and have his back, his coaches love him and wanted him back. His GM wanted him back. That’s all I need to know as a Bucs fan.
March 12th, 2024 at 11:35 am
Actually it’s needlessly cherry picking. Run Dak’s numbers while subtracting Cee Dee Lambs receptions. Ditto Mahomes with Kelce. Let’s see what we come up with.
March 12th, 2024 at 11:49 am
He’s here now, and, for better or worse, I’ll continue to root for him and the team, but he was middle of the pack in a down year for QB’s. A whole lot of meh last season. As I’ve mentioned many times before, the adjusted QBR shows what it shows: 9 games below average, 4 games around average, and 4 games above average. Two of his games were elite and 5 were awful (b30 or below). He is what he is. It’s too bad a number of fans have an overinflated view of his abilities.
March 12th, 2024 at 12:01 pm
And, all of THIS was with Mike Evans. Not very surprising at all, since all of us witnessed it. We never would’ve needed all of those miraculous 4th Quarter comebacks, etc. (which I give him credit for), IF not for Baker stinking it up SO BAD during the FIRST ‘3-Quarters’ of the game… Seriously (especially during that 1-6 stretch), every time you looked up midway through the 3rd, it was always something like 7-6, 10-7, 10-3, or some CRAP like that, with Baker under 100-yards, & struggling real hardddd just to move the ball at ALL, much less pick up a 1st down. No reason to go into it all tho, since EVERYONE saw it. With that said, I’m good with the contract (since we got Mike back), & it’s EXACTLY what I wanted and called for… A 3yr/$100M with $50M guaranteed that is really just 2-years, with a 3rd year option, that we can move on from if need be & then extend again in a short amount of time (to manipulate the cap some more), if he tears it up!!!!
March 12th, 2024 at 12:09 pm
It appears the initial irrational exuberance is beginning to fade in light of the harsh reality of the facts of our personnel and financial situations, let’s add to that what we are facing on this years schedule ; within the NFC -South , the Atlanta Falcons are loaded and now have Kirk Cousins to run their offense and have been named by many sportswriters as being the favored team to win the South, New Orleans has a team that was coming together at the end of last season and is becoming a threat also , the Carolina Panthers were the worst team in the NFL last year but have been working hard to lay the infrastructure to improve, they already have a high degree of institutional information concerning Mayfield’s strengths and weaknesses having played for Carolina for half a season before being fired and released and now have Dave Canales , the former OC for Tampa , who is intimately aware of all of the Tampa’s offense good and bad. When You add to the improved competition we face in the NFC-South , the teams We must face , the NFC-East , Dallas, Philadelphia, Washington and the Giants, the AFC-West, Super Bowl Champion Kansas City , Denver, Raiders and Chargers , along with games against Super Bowl participant San Francisco , Detroit , and Baltimore, the warning words spoken by General Custer’s scouts to him before he went into the valley of the Little Big Horn, “ General, there are more Indians there than You have bullets”.
March 12th, 2024 at 12:32 pm
Joe … ‘Sharp is of the mind Mayfield is due to regress in 2024.’
I had no real problem with Sharp’s OPINION … until THAT. If anything, we should expect him to IMPROVE in 2024: (1) he’s now developed a 1-year familiarity with all the coaches & players; (2) we’ve brought in an OC who’s shown that he can get the best out of Baker; (3) by every indication Bucs’ OLine & RB stable should improve this year; (4) Baker’s new contract gives him lots of incentives to do well in 2024 (and thus guarantee that he can remain our starting QB & collect on the remainder of the contract).
Mayfield is IMO a middle-tier QB, but that’s fine. That’s exactly what he’s being paid as AND that’s also what Todd Bowles is looking for in his QB. We’re surrounding Baker with a solid TEAM on both offense & defense (and kicking too). He doesn’t need to play Superman … just DO HIS JOB. If he doesn’t, he probably won’t see the 3rd year of this contract, and maybe not even the 2nd year. But as said in the beginning, I fully expect him to IMPROVE this year, not regress.
March 12th, 2024 at 12:45 pm
I was at that carolina game. Not enough people point out how insanely windy it was. I think all points were scored in the same end zone. it was insanely windy and that stadium had the field-level wind blowing the opposite direction of the wind outside, it was curling under off of the scoreboard.
March 12th, 2024 at 1:05 pm
It is what I maintained all along. Baker Mayfield is an average middle tier NFL QB. Nothing more, nothing less. He seems like he has matured and grown up and seems like an adequate leader….but the stats don’t lie.
The Bucs have won the division the last 3 years…however the last 2 years, the division has been possibly the weakest in NFL…Going 9-8 under Baker is very average.
I didn’t want to pay him north of 30M, as I think you paying too much for average. There is one common word throughout “average”.
I think the question with Baker is “Can we win another Super Bowl, with him as our starting QB?” My answer to the question is…. No I don’t think we can.
I was wanting Licht to look into Justin Fields, as I think the untapped potential is enormous and his ceiling is incredibly high…If it was going to take a 2nd rd pick, I would have gone down that path. Do year 4 and 5 of Fields rookie contract…if it doesn’t work out you draft a QB in 2026
March 12th, 2024 at 2:02 pm
W/E. Better playoff record than Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr. Baker is good enough to hit a Bowl with ME and CG catching those passes. I heard all the Matt Stafford hate, not good enough for a championship…until he was. IMO Baker is up there with Burrow and Herbert. Stafford and Mahomes are a notch higher. Hurts is decent but a one year wonder, Goff is decent but panics under pressure, Cousins is decent but melts down in primetime. Russ is cooked. Carr is good enough to lose a playoff game. Tua is a system QB. CJ Stroud is the real deal. Josh Allen is Tebow with a stronger arm. Bottom line, Baker has his faults but surrounded with talent he can be your SB QB
March 12th, 2024 at 2:39 pm
K2 you got to be a white man because only they are the only people that says that about black quarterbacks and never say it about white quarterbacks .
March 12th, 2024 at 2:39 pm
“Intelligent fans”
That’s a good one!
Baker had a career year Bc it was a statistical best for him in many categories. Are we going to take away from Baker because he has Mike, Chris and Rachaad?
No, I will not. Dude showed toughness, loyalty and grit. Dude showed how he can win and also how he can lose. I’m rooting for the man because I’m a diehard Bucs fan who knows we have the best QB we can find right now. Draft a QB? Sure but I’d rather us draft a power center, a killer edge rusher and an even better cornerback than CDIII. The eternal freak out from the commenters is getting old.
March 12th, 2024 at 2:39 pm
Thank you Warren for proven what I’ve been saying the whole time we love you sap p
March 12th, 2024 at 2:46 pm
BOTTOM LINE: HATERS YOU LOST
Meh not even going to enter the fray. Its now all irrelevant. HIs contract will be signed shorty and he’s here either for two years minimum or one at 50 million one year
Baker and Baker bois won. Those still screeching are as pathetic as the people still geting fire in their eyes over a refs call in a game ten years ago. The win column ain’t going to change saps.
I will say this though Sharp IS RIGHT in one important area . Baker having a career year this year was some smoke and mirrors. His best year in totality was 2020 especially when you take into account the 16 vs 17 game seasons and his playoffs that year
So what Sharp’s data really shows is that Baker ‘s year last year is not only attainable again and not a af fluke but he can and likely will play better once again having played a whole season with the same team.
March 12th, 2024 at 3:05 pm
PoundTheRock Says:
I was wanting Licht to look into Justin Fields, as I think the untapped potential is enormous and his ceiling is incredibly high
—
Unrelated to Baker but in general I am so sick and tired of this utterly dumb sports meme.
What objective ruler measures a “ceiling”?
Okay then what is actual numbe of measurment for any player you apply rhis to?
and how if we can measure “ceilings” doesn’t eveyone do so in the draft and therefore all draft picks in the top of the draft excell? Answer – because its just a guess masquerading as a data based fact .
Thank God we don’t have this meme in academics in professions that matter or Einstein would have had a “ceiling” when he starte taklking late as an infant
March 12th, 2024 at 5:41 pm
You will see Baker put up numbers this year better than last. He has been through some very hard times and it had to mess with him mentally. His confidence is coming back and he is comfortable with TB and will show the extent of his talent this year. It is going to be fun to watch. I can’t wait!!!
March 12th, 2024 at 6:26 pm
Bakefield is a dink and dunk expert…he can also handoff up the gut number 1.
March 12th, 2024 at 6:51 pm
Hey Tony Marks
A meme lmao, what are you talking about. You need to lay off the mind altering meds.
It is called talent. The player with more physical talent is the player with a higher ceiling. Pretty Simple! Not very hard to understand. Dim people like you may never grasp the concept.
Obviously you like mid tier, average QB play with virtually no chance to win a SB. If you are limited with Baker’s talent, why wouldn’t you take a chance on QB (Fields) that would cost the organization substantially less $$….if it doesn’t work, you draft another QB in 2026.
March 12th, 2024 at 6:58 pm
It’s not like everyone didn’t know he was a check down QB.
Bucs offensive formula worked out well last season. Clear out routes and dump offs. Another poster already said it – one read and check down.
White was a superb pass catcher so it worked – plus lots of 4 quarter spread and dump against prevent and Mayfield was reasonably slippery avoiding the rush.
The NFL adjusts however and Baker doesn’t have the frame to keep playing hero ball. Baker has to continue to improve if he wants to stick. One read dump off scramble might work for a season, but there’s tape now. Coen is Baker’s guy and he’ll design a playbook just like Canales did – same stuff no big mystery.
I think it’s funny all this kumbaya ended up with Baker playing hardball. I wonder if that soured the Glazers any. He got the big $$ he wanted now he has to live up to it.
There won’t be any patience if he’s 4-7 like when he was at 4-6 mil per.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:38 pm
“Sharp is of the mind Mayfield is due to regress in 2024.”
——–
If you’re not a Baker Boi, you should expect this to be the case. Doesn’t mean it’s going to be a huge fall off, but you should expect him to drop a few points in QBR. The problem with that, is if he does regress at all, he’s well into the 20s in QBR – and that’s when you’re looking for a new QB. But, if he can at least maintain what he did last year, he’ll make it to year 2 of his deal.
In any case I think the Bucs deal with Baker was fair – and if he stinks next season the Bucs will eat the $20m cap hit and cut him since they’ll be blowing up the team and hiring a new coach anyways who will want his own new QB in any case.
The one glimmer of hope would be if Baker can get a lot more accurate on his downfield throws. He left a ton of points on the board and yards on the field with his inaccurate deep passes – if he can clean that up, that is one place he could take a noticeable step forward.
So while I hope every Baker Boi will drunk drive into a bridge embankment, I hope Baker himself actually does well, since that means the Bucs should be winning.
March 12th, 2024 at 7:47 pm
Bucsmarley – Still believe his numbers were padded by YAC and most of it was 4th qtr.
——–
His numbers were mostly padded by White catches passes and getting yards on them – which is why White lead the league vs expected yards after reception. All those dump-offs inflated his completion percentage, which inflated his stats.
Except for one stat, QBR, which takes into account QBs like Derek Carr who just dump off the ball on 3rd and long to help his passer rating. Mayfield did that as well, although not in the same league as Carr, to be sure.
But QBR had Baker at 18th, which is right about what the other stats show.
I wouldn’t say Baker really padded his stats in the 4th quarter of most games, but there is one standout example where he did, and it shows how broken the old passer rating is. That would be the 2nd Saints game, where Baker was absolutely terrible, and got a bunch of yards late. He had like a 92 passer rating or something stupid, but his QBR I think was 18.
As for YAC, Baker did get some big runs by WRs – certainly compared to previous years for the Bucs, but I’m not sure it was out of the ordinary, so it would be hard to ding him for that. But if someone has numbers, I’d be happy to see them.
Overall, I’m ambivalent about Baker. Personally I’d have also signed a much cheaper option since I don’t think there is going to be a big fall off in play between Baker and say Gardner Minshew, and that extra money would buy a lot of stuff. But Baker is back, so I hope he does well.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:32 pm
PoundTheRock Says:
March 12th, 2024 at 6:51 pm
Hey Tony Marks
A meme lmao, what are you talking about. You need to lay off the mind altering meds.
–
Said the totally duped by by social media kid. Go ahead tell me the number and the measurement tool that you dictate ceiling”. In your whole silly answer you couldn’t come up with one.
talent level is determined at the draft and the first few years o f playing college . IF what a player does with that could be quantified and known THEN you would have a measureable ceiling. I’d tell you Santa clause and crystal balls don’t exist but your parents might get mad at me.
March 12th, 2024 at 8:45 pm
Rod Now Irrelevant Says:
March 12th, 2024 at 7:47 pm
His numbers were mostly padded by White catches passes and getting yards on them.
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The class comedians writes that A qb pads his stats when players catch the ball and run with it. 🙂 Anyone have the time to tutor Rod in remedial Football 101.
LOl. thankfully i need say nothing more to the long chapters you are writing to try and save face for the facts. Baker the guy you didn’t want is QB1 for the foreseable future capping of a year long string of you being wrong about everything.
Its not Purdy . We have found Mr. Rod M. Irrelevant.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:15 pm
i saw al year burning forst and seconds with runs for no gain only to jave mayfield pick up first downs on third and sustain drives all while protrcting the ball. Get the man a rin game next year and see what that looks like
March 12th, 2024 at 9:31 pm
“PoundTheRock” – Thank-God then, that you are NOT our GM. A ‘2nd Round’ PICK… WHAT!? I knew he wouldn’t bring it… They’ll be REAL LUCKY if they can get a 4th now, at this point. As a BACK-UP. No one wanted him and now there’s not a spot for him. Just take a look at HIS ‘W/L’ Record. He’s a more athletic Zach Wilson… EXTREMELY Inaccurate. He should’ve been a Running Back. And, they (DaBears) ‘tried’ getting pieces around him too (they weren’t completely inept like Carolina and NE), & he completely blew-it. You just bought-in to all the ESPN hype, I guess… Cause, he was AWFUL. He was given every opportunity. He Can’t Play. And, there’s a good chance that he’ll be outta the League entirely, in just a few years. He’d be VERY smart to land in Philly, Baltimore, or KC as a backup.
March 12th, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Lmao.
Mayfield threw a qreat deal to our backs.
Because we had the WORST PRODUCING TE ROOM IN THE NFL.
If you add The Stats for passes to TEs and RBs, it turns out that Mayfield targeted WRs more than 80% of the NFL QBs.
Mayfield threw to RBs frequently,BECAUSE OUR TEs SUCK.
Hopefully, we can get more production from our TEs this year, and will depend less on our backs.
Not that I really give a F who he throws to.
I care about Wins. Division championships, playoff wins, and SuperBowl victories.
I dont give a damn if he uses smkoke, mirrors, ramen noodles and bourbon to complete passes to the waterbowl- if he means winning!
So “Warren Sharpe” can stick his slanted stats up his caboose.
And who the F is Warren Sharpe?
March 12th, 2024 at 9:49 pm
Capt.Tim Says:
March 12th, 2024 at 9:38 pm
Mayfield threw to RBs frequently,BECAUSE OUR TEs SUCK.
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Its actually even more eentertianing than that Cap . They leave out somethng very funny to leave out. Baker threw to ourR Bs because for most of the season they couldn’t run a lick but could catch.
So it s not just the TE. They are tryingto blame Baker for not having a run game
March 12th, 2024 at 10:35 pm
Ahhh the beautiful sight of the whining fanbois posts crying about all the Baker hate 😭
Smoke and mirrors is exactly what I said before. He’s bound for his every other year regression which is his m.o. He struggled too much against good teams and was too non existent in the 1st half of too many games for me to drink y’alls Baker juice you fanbois are drunk on. You act like he’s the 2nd coming off Fran Tarketon. He better pick up the pace in the 1st half and he better be great in TC and PS because he’ll be crucified all year and fanbois will be consoling each other
March 12th, 2024 at 11:45 pm
Tony marks Says:
His numbers were mostly padded by White catches passes and getting yards on them.
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The class comedians writes that A qb pads his stats when players catch the ball and run with it.
——————–
Did you read the article, because it says the same thing.
Throwing 1 yard passes on 3rd and 12, and having the RB get 6 yards is padding your stats. It’s what Carr does, it’s why dummies like you quote meaningless numbers like completion percentage like it’s a big deal in 2024.
Anyways, I was responding to someone saying that he was padding his stats in garbage time and YAC, and I was actually defending your boi a bit – not that you’re smart enough to actually understand what any of these phrases or numbers actually mean.
March 12th, 2024 at 11:46 pm
Capt.Tim – you tell em Tim, it’s NOT BAKERS FAULT!!! ITS NEVER HIS FAULT!!! LEAVE HIM ALONE!!!
March 13th, 2024 at 1:24 am
Sharp sounds like a blithering idiot on this one. A back receiving isn’t new and no QB has any kind of year without people catching the ball. What a waste of opinion time for Sharp to even hand out that dribble. The wins, title, and playoff games tell how well Baker and the BUCS played and I watched the film breakdown of his games. Sharp needs a new line of work. The breakdown of the “drop-off” in #s when throwing to receivers is reflective of the 38 perfectly catchable ball receivers dropped this year.(also available on film) Either Sharp just wanted to craft this opinion from the beginning or he’s too dumb to watch film of games. Baker played great and football people darn well know it. The BUCS know it too, that’s why they paid him BEFORE free agency. Have another go at an opinion piece Sharp or, better yet, DON’T! Either way, if you’re going to quote stats, don’t contort them to manufacture some arbitrary point, watch the games and learn what they’re telling you. Stat geeks who can’t watch game film are just idiots of another kind. People that know how to watch film and say this stuff are just low.
March 13th, 2024 at 1:28 am
To the same types on this page, I’ll point out that YAC arent “padding a QBs numbers” they’re on every QBs stats. Learn something about football then go try to read stats.
March 13th, 2024 at 3:13 am
The way the contract IS structured there is still enough money left to properly take care of the players currently working on their contracts and continue building a great team. JUST LIKE BAKER SAID HE WOULD AGREE TO. So not only do we have a very solid QB he is a man of his word and took less money to keep good players and draft the players needed to win a superbowl. What a team guy. You can’t make this stuff up in 2024. Let’s go Baker, you da man brother!!!
March 13th, 2024 at 3:21 am
Everybody remember ol’ big buc99 called it, Baker WILL regress. Oh how you WILL eat those words next year and from then on. Haunting it will be🥴
March 13th, 2024 at 3:37 am
Onei has to be a liberal bringing race into sports, pitiful. Can’t even have an opinion without “being” racist. What a joke
March 13th, 2024 at 5:24 am
Rod Munch Says:
March 12th, 2024 at 11:45 pm
not that you’re smart enough
🙂 Your Lack of smartness has deen demsntated and proven MANY times Mr. Irrelevant
Your bothched predictions , your claims of RBs not being needed in the league , wanting Jameis back (LOL) and your evaluation of 28 TDs being less than 15 TDs because of 2 running TDs. ( maths class neeeded) are all things of legend testifying to a low IQ
You want to latch on to one article ane daydream its the definitive word then be my guest. Every timr you want th GM or coach to do something they do mostl the oposite. So who cares?
March 13th, 2024 at 7:15 am
People must really hats Bakes when they characterize lazt years super bowl runner ups and an 11 win team as being super bad.
March 13th, 2024 at 11:30 am
Yes Jack Clark you are so smart saying Baker is a “one read qb”. He is so dumb he went out to one of the most complex offenses, Rams, and in 48 hours was running that offense and winning. Can you name another qb that did that? It was so impressive Mcvay laughed in disbelief that Baker did that. Yeah Baker is an idiot!!! I think you should look in the mirror and see what an idiot really looks like.
March 13th, 2024 at 11:49 am
According to the NFL QB Index Mayfield is ranked #9 in the league. What’s up with all the negative vibes on here about Mayfield? I don’t get it? How good of a QB do you people THINK you deserve? Isn’t #9 good enough to take Tampa Bay to a superbowl? #9???
March 13th, 2024 at 2:32 pm
Blinders on? So am I stupid didn’t we have a winning season better than last year with brady how’s bout baker accomplishments perfect passer rating in GB only 1 to do that at the best possible time he did that crazy good stuff many times this past season he won several games with putting his frame on the line when running for his life. then puts t.lawrence in his place after the ppr in GB then makes min e meat out of eagles & played elite in Detroit don’t say it wasn’t elite o ce u r in better points than u r season average then gets rewarded in the pro bowl mvp & pesser comp winner things r looking good for the Bucs
March 13th, 2024 at 3:15 pm
Gene Says:
“Sharp sounds like a blithering idiot on this one. A back receiving isn’t new and no QB has any kind of year without people catching the ball. What a waste of opinion time for Sharp to even hand out that dribble. The wins, title, and playoff games tell how well Baker and the BUCS played and I watched the film breakdown of his games. Sharp needs a new line of work. ”
Bingo Gene. Couldn’t have typed it better myself.
The internet gives these armchair prognosticators access to all that data to not make insightful points but they’d rather use it for confirmation bias. Because their desired narratives are better for triggering the crowd and getting attention (clicks). At least do better home work and use the brain a little more Mr. not so Sharp. I am sure you are just as happy regardless of the takes on your punditry because all press is good press.
The Team did Baker a solid by letting him on the team and prove himself after being cast away by 3 teams – not like the Team really had a choice with Trask as projected starter and Bowles projected to be fired.
Baker did the The Team a solid by agreeing to a $4M deal which is half of what Sam Darnold just signed for in Minnesota and close to what good gawd Jameis Winston just signed with incentives to be the Browns’ happy backup. Baker didn’t really have a choice, no other team had the weapons and lack of QB options to set him up.
They both did each other good with this team friendly, $50M guaranteed life changing deal. Most agree this was good for both Baker and the Team. So why are these pundits nitpicking on the fringe? Internet Clicks and Views. Like second string RBs trying to make a splash on the special teams. Waste of time – kickoffs and pundits.
March 13th, 2024 at 3:45 pm
What it is. Name me one white quarterback that’s been said he’s not smart enough regardless how bad of a quarterback he is??
March 13th, 2024 at 4:39 pm
Hey What it is you might want to have your eyes checked and look at that pic up top again and get you a new cup of Bakerboi juice because your every other year good qb is #6 but like you said I’m sure there’s a #9 out there who will win us a Super Bowl before Bakerboi
March 16th, 2024 at 1:06 pm
If Jason adds Reddick and a running game, and a few other significant pieces to this roster. And the new OC is a good play caller and Baker stays healthy all season. The Bucs will be legitimate Super Bowl contenders this coming season. It’s still feels bizarre to seriously consider that too. I thought after Brady retired
the team would go into rebuilding mode. Instead Jason Licht, Greenberg, Spytek, the entire front office and the coaching staff reloaded this team. And they did it with many of us fans and national media telling them they could not do it. Hats off them and it’s there time to bask in the sunlight.