Maybe Trey Palmer Should Be Used Differently
March 19th, 2024
Use his wheels.
A very, very interesting stat about Bucs receiver Trey Palmer was unearthed by the good people of the NFL-owned stats outfit NextGen Stats.
All NextGen Stats data come via sensors embedded in players’ and game equipment. So the numbers don’t lie. They’re raw data.
It seems no receiver in the NFL was faster starting his routes than Palmer. Think about that for a moment. No one was faster at the beginning of his route. Not even Cheetah Hill.
Now Joe knows Palmer was drafted largely to take the top off the defense. But armed with this NextGen Stats nugget, Joe is thinking something different.
If Palmer is this quick beginning his routes, in theory, he should be open at the start of these routes more often than not, no? If that adds up, Joe hopes new Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen begins targeting Palmer at the beginning of his routes. You know, quick, short passes.
Jerry Rice used to be lethal when Joe Montana/Steve Young would hit Rice on a slant pass right away and Rice would then turn on the jets and roast defenses.
With Palmer’s wheels, how about instead of having him take the top off the defense and stretching the defense, why not get Palmer the ball right away and let him use his greatest asset — his legs — to take over?
If a guy is that quick getting off the snap, use that as a weapon?
March 19th, 2024 at 9:02 am
Yep !
same with DT
March 19th, 2024 at 9:06 am
That would be good in a 3 receiver set, along with White coming out of the backfield. That would definitely give defenses headaches.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:08 am
Sounds reasonable to me…….get the ball to him more and sooner. Taking the top off requires and accurate downfield pass and more difficult catch. Perhaps some WR screens.
I also don’t think Deven Thompkins is used properly……he catches the ball when targeted…..but is used with the end around play so often defenses are ready for it.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:09 am
I like it.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:10 am
Add in a WR screen pump fake and it even gets better. To my knowledge we didn’t see a single pump fake all year. Makes me wonder if Bakers hands are too small for it. Also sometimes lag and then go works better. Maybe he needs to slow down and not run straight to zne coverage so fast. It’s not always that easy just by looking at data.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:11 am
TBBF, agreed. The end around needs to be employed as a decoy more often than not now.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:13 am
This only works for a few plays until the defense adapts and starts playing bump-and-run on the little guy.
Bump-and-run never worked on Jerry Rice.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:13 am
Offense play calling will be different simply because Canales = no experience, Cohen = plenty of experience.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:14 am
Canales didn’t design plays to take advantage of Palmer’s speed. Palmer will always be WR3 behind Mike and Chris. Even Thompkins would be good in the quick slants where his elusiveness can be used. I guess there are two camps, feed the ball to your WR1, or spread the ball around against weak spots, I’m in the ‘spread the ball’ camp.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:17 am
Maybe they figured those are harder catches for a rook. Baker throws bullets on those routes sometimes. Safeties like to tee up on skinny guys. Hopefully he can handle mixing it up more this year and the new OC is on board!
March 19th, 2024 at 9:19 am
If we could get our run game going, that would open a lot of options for our passing offense. Imagine how good the Bucs would be with a dominate line and another RB to complement White.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:22 am
He needs to catch the ball. He and Baker never got on the same page last season and he turned the ball over.
He’s got potential but needs lots of polishing. Hopefully he’s a hard worker and figures it out learning behind ME and CG.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:27 am
Not bad for a late-round rook.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:30 am
The thing about those little short routes is that if you bobble the ball, it almost always gets intercepted
March 19th, 2024 at 9:31 am
The guy made some pretty big plays between the red zone and his long TD vs the Eagles, and showed an ability to make contested catches and high point the ball on top of his speed. He did well to adjust to the ball.
I am fine with adding a WR late in the draft but it just seems like mismanaged resources if we prioritize a #3 when this guy showed a lot of potential and wasn’t really being used as well as he could have in terms of short passes / quick screens / etc. And we already have a super highly paid WR room where those guys should be getting 8-10 targets each weekly.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:36 am
When are you going to give us some intel on our new slot corner?…or did I miss it?
March 19th, 2024 at 9:38 am
Real question is getting Godwin involved. How bout use the pass game to open up the run?
March 19th, 2024 at 9:44 am
I’m sure you’ve hit on something to build into Palmer’s game, but hopefully it’s just another tool in the toolkit. Agree with Cobraboy that a nice late-round pick, but like several others have said, he needs a lot of polishing.
Trey was used a LOT last year (718 offensive snaps … 65%) in his 17 games. Yet he was only targeted 68 times, probably because his catch percentage (57.4% based on 39 catches) wasn’t all that sterling. And yet, he only got tagged with dropping 4 balls. Still, his productivity was quite good: 3 TDs & 17 1st downs (20 in 39 catches is quite good IMO).
Problem was … he fumbled 3 times on the season. It’s nice to have 4.33 speed, but it’s worthless if you can’t hang onto the ball. Got a hunch however that 2024 will be a breakout year for Palmer.
March 19th, 2024 at 9:45 am
Yep. Give a guy this small and nimble the ball quick while Strong Safeties and Linebackers are screaming downhill eyes wide open. Ya’ll will be calling for his head when he’s on the IR like Russell Gage. Cool concept, but the kids body wont hold up til the bye week. USE GODWIN AND YOUR TIGHT ENDS! Go Bucs!
March 19th, 2024 at 9:48 am
That’s one heck of a group of receivers to be lumped in with … a 4th Round Pick? Wow!
March 19th, 2024 at 9:54 am
Don’t need to change, he needs to up his game. Doesn’t matter how fast he gets off is he doesn’t know where he’s going
Godwin is the one who needs to be used differently and go back to slot which is why he got that fat contract
March 19th, 2024 at 10:06 am
Hmmm utilizing a players strengths to maximize their effectiveness…something the last OC failed to do consistently.
March 19th, 2024 at 10:16 am
“Trey was used a LOT last year (718 offensive snaps … 65%) in his 17 games. Yet he was only targeted 68 times, probably because his catch percentage (57.4% based on 39 catches) wasn’t all that sterling.”
No stats to back this up, but I believe that the up the middle pressure felt by Baker didn’t allow Palmer’s routes to develop. Hard to target the deep man who might be third or fourth in the progression when under pressure.
March 19th, 2024 at 10:27 am
I been screaming we need more slants for years…not just to him…CG too!
March 19th, 2024 at 10:36 am
I agree with the spread the ball around camp. That goes AGAINST constantly calling Palmer the 3rd or 4th progression. Canales always said ME 1st, Godwin 2nd etc. etc. Teams know this. He telecasted it. Called plays to other guys involving more than just end arounds is what Im talking about. You do it UNTIL they quit doubling your premier guys or they lose. ME wanted Baker back because in Canales system he force fed him. He will get his yards regardless, but other players need to become true weapons. Also the practice until you are better philosophy was crap. Yes, in most professions that is necessary, but round peg square hole was mentioned a LOT. You have to have the horses. Do what your guys are GOOD at, don’t force your way. I believe Coen understands this basic principle and Palmer should benefit from it.
March 19th, 2024 at 10:47 am
Maybe go back and look at how Andy Reid used Hill in KC. They always made several attempts to get him the ball and just let him outrun everyone on the field, end arounds, quick slants, wide out screens and yes the deep ball.
I don’t know much about Coen but I hope he sees the players attributes and plays to their strengths.
March 19th, 2024 at 10:51 am
Palmer isnt a guy you want taking hits from Lbers or Dline men.
Mayfield was top 5 in accuracy on throws over 20 yards.
He also has the longest throw in the Air in NFL history
Mayfield has a cannon for an arm. And hes accurate.
What we need , to make those two a lethal combination, is time.
Our line gave Mayfield 2.3 seconds to throw in the pocket. Thats bottom 4 in te NFL.
You arent throwing the ball down field with that little time.
Fix the O line.
Fix the O line will fix the downfield passing game, the running game.
Ok, it wont fix our lousy TE production. We need another te, and for Otton and Payne to improve.
But our offense is just one thing from being lethal.
Linemen who can block.
March 19th, 2024 at 10:59 am
Capt.Tim Says:
March 19th, 2024 at 10:51 am
Our line gave Mayfield 2.3 seconds to throw in the pocket. Thats bottom 4 in te NFL…..
…….
You take this stat along being dead last in run offense, dang Baker Mayfield did a hell of a job. The idiots who don’t take this into account know nothing about football.
Mayfield will be deadly if given the time plus being able to play action with a run offense that a defense has to honor.
Nice stat to point out, thank Capt.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:03 am
Kiper has us taking Xavier Worthy out of Texas in order to “ take the top off the defense”. Guess he hasn’t been paying attention. Not to say we couldn’t use more of that, but rather why would that be our first pick with bigger needs elsewhere.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:10 am
OR Buc Says:
March 19th, 2024 at 11:03 am
Kiper has us taking Xavier Worthy out of Texas in….
………
I can’t stand Texas but I can tell you that Worthy is really good.
Bucs have too many needs to get another WR.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:10 am
OR Buc Says:
March 19th, 2024 at 11:03 am
Kiper has us taking Xavier Worthy out of Texas in….
………
I can’t stand Texas but I can tell you that Worthy is really good.
Bucs have too many needs to get another WR.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:12 am
Capt.Tim Says:
Mayfield was top 5 in accuracy on throws over 20 yards.
———————————————————————
Completely wrong. Mayfield’s “accuracy” on long throws was terrible in 2023.
“Despite historically having a quality deep ball, Mayfield struggled with connecting with his receivers 20+ yards deep. He was just 22 of 74 (29.7%) for 744 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions on deep passes.”
March 19th, 2024 at 11:27 am
Coen uses 11 personal about 90% of the time. That’s three receiver sets. Canales used 11 personal less then 30% of the time. Canales was big on 12 personal, two tight ends. Coen’s offense will be more like the Rams, and less like the Seahawks. That’s a good thing. It probably means we’re set at TE for the draft, but will need to take at least one receiver, and probably pretty high. My guess is the Bucs go IOL first pick, and receiver in the 2nd round. I know everyone is hell bent on edge rusher, but the value isn’t there. Chop Robinson had 6 sacks in 3 years at Penn St. Might as well just draft JTS all over again. That’s what kind of edge rushers you’ll find at #26.
March 19th, 2024 at 11:40 am
Palmer has not shown anymore than his draft position
March 19th, 2024 at 11:54 am
Sounds great, as long as we run up the middle on 1st and 2nd down for a total of 2.3 yards……… setting up that sweet 3rd and 8 that we seem to covet so much.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:27 pm
Pickgrin.
I didnt say what his perentage was. I said he was in top 5 in NFL in completions over 20 yards.
Thanks, now I have to spend my free time trying to see where I read that stat! Lol.
But Ill find it.
March 19th, 2024 at 12:52 pm
@Joe.
Did you really say Rice was roasting defenses with his speed? Dude ran a 4.6 on a good day.
March 19th, 2024 at 1:00 pm
There’s not much disputing what you said….
Capt.Tim Says:
“Mayfield was top 5 in accuracy on throws over 20 yards”
“Accuracy” on a long pass = # of times a QB threw a catchable ball to a receiver 20 or more yards down filed – vs the # of times he tried and didn’t throw a catchable ball.
The ratio of how many times that was successfully done vs the # of attempts that were not successful creates a “percentage” on those types of throws.
A good “accuracy” rate on long throws would be something approaching 50%. Or at least higher than 40%…
An “accuracy” rate below 30% for even long throws is quite poor.
You are the one who made a specific claim about Mayfield that was not true so all I did was give you stats that prove it wasn’t true….
March 19th, 2024 at 1:02 pm
I wonder if he can play DE
March 19th, 2024 at 1:20 pm
BigBoiBuc:
Go watch some of Jerry Rice’s highlights catching slant passes and watch him run through and past defenders.
Always remember and never forget football ain’t track.
March 19th, 2024 at 1:50 pm
That’s info to be used!
March 19th, 2024 at 1:53 pm
He was a late round pick that found a way to contribute. He likely spent last season finding his footing. Last season, I wondered if Baker had an issue seeing over the middle and throwing to that middle right side of the field. I still think we need interior line help, and that it will improve the pass and run game. The only way we pick up a WR with our first pick in the draft is if we traded back. Need lots of help in the trenches.
March 19th, 2024 at 2:00 pm
Coen is creative with using pre-snap movement from multiple formations on WR screens…If you want a good peek into how Palmer will be used…Go watch some 2021 UK Football highlights & focus on Wan’Dale Robinson’s usage. (UK #1)
Screens, end-arounds & taking the top off out of bunched sets using play action were Coen staples.
Liam 100% likes SPEEDY WR’s for that slot role…So, do not expect to see Godwin working there very often.
March 19th, 2024 at 3:16 pm
He’ll be a star once we stop throwing to the tall guy so much.
March 19th, 2024 at 3:16 pm
Palmer could develop into a good #3, and eventually possibly a #2. He seems to have some skills other than pure speed. Hands seem pretty reliable. I can’t evaluate his route running, but we’ve got a new WR coach who might be the right guy to develop him.
March 19th, 2024 at 3:40 pm
Are you asking for the Benn’d around?
March 19th, 2024 at 3:40 pm
Gotta find a way to use that to our advantage
March 19th, 2024 at 4:12 pm
If Baker was more accurate, Palmer would have had a really nice rookie year, he was open all the time and Baker over and over and over again missed him.
March 19th, 2024 at 4:21 pm
Great insights, Joe.
You need to write your top 20 insights and ideas for offense and defense and present it to Todd Bowles and Liam Cohen. They could at least try them out during training camp and some of them may really help the team.
March 19th, 2024 at 5:15 pm
Pickgrin,
Again, you are not responding to what I posted. I said he was in top 5 in NFL in pass completion.
You are posting that 50% is a good percentage. Based on what?
A GOOD PERCENTAGE, would be if your completion rate placed you in the top 5 of QBs, with over 100 attempts of 20+ last year.
If 30 qbs completed under 10% of their 20+ yard attempts, then 15% would be outstanding. Busy day today, I will find the source of the stat I read yesterday, and will post it
March 19th, 2024 at 5:18 pm
Palmer was disappointing up until the Philly game…..
But expect some growing pains for a 6th round rookie. Next year we’ll found out if hes the real deal.
Speed can be overrated in the NFL so I wouldnt harpe on that too much. Look at John Ross
March 19th, 2024 at 5:24 pm
Btw it seems the Bucs got excellent value for Mike Evans at 52 million for 2 years if Jerry Jeudy who hasnt done a single thing in the league is getting 58 from the Browns….
The Browns are truly a terribly run organization
March 19th, 2024 at 5:42 pm
WOW faster than Hill??? Great nugget Joe!!!!!!
March 19th, 2024 at 7:51 pm
Tbbucs3 – A 6th round pick can’t be a disappointment, if they even make the team, that is considered a win.
As for Palmer, his stat line would have been dramatically improved had Baker actually hit him on the numerous occasions he got behind the defense – and Baker was just wildly inaccurate.
But, what Joe said is also true, if he’s that fast off the line, just run some short slants and in’s where Baker’s accuracy isn’t an issue, and maybe he can break a few of them. However, they should continue to run the deep routes and take shots and hope Baker, with more reps with Palmer, can finally start to hit those passes.
March 19th, 2024 at 8:20 pm
Baker did hit a wide open Palmer plently of times, then Palmer proceeded to fumble the ball…guess thats Bakers fault though for not running down the field after making the pass to cradle Palmer to make sure he he doesnt fumble #BlameMayfield
March 19th, 2024 at 8:26 pm
Because he doesn’t have great hands especially inside. He needs to learn how to catch and keep the ball!
March 19th, 2024 at 10:49 pm
Capt.Tim Says:
Pickgrin,
Again, you are not responding to what I posted. I said he was in top 5 in NFL in pass completion.
————————————————————————
I responded to exactly what you posted and quoted it twice. Will do so again…
“Mayfield was top 5 in accuracy on throws over 20 yards”.
This is simply not true. It is exactly the opposite of true. Meaning that statement is FALSE. You used the word “accuracy” – so I gave you the stats that prove just how inaccurate Mayfield was on long passes. 29.7% is TERRIBLE in fact.
Your brain is mixing up “accuracy” with total # of completed long passes and/or total # of yards gained off of 20+ yard passes.
Mayfield was indeed “top 5” in # of yards gained on long passes – mainly for 2 reasons. 1. His receivers made huge plays when Baker did manage to get them the ball with throws in the air of 20 or more yards. – and 2. (which is the exact same reason that Baker had other stats that fell into the top 10 categories in 2023 – namely total yards (#9) and total TD passes (#7) ) – a # of good QBs got hurt last year and thus Baker moved up the charts on those categories (and the one you were apparently trying to refer to) by default.
Burrow, Rodgers, Cousins and Watson specifically would have all had better stats in those categories than Baker did if they had played full seasons – so Baker would not have been top 10 in any categories if those 4 QBs had played 17 games.
Additionally – Stafford and Stroud each missed 2 games and would have beaten Mayfield in those TD and Yards categories. (Stroud did actually get more yards than Baker with just 15 games). Herbert missed 4 games and would have beaten out Mayfield statistically as well.
So lets stop pretending like Baker Mayfield was anywhere near being a “top 10 QB” last year. He would have been #14 in TDs and #15 in total yards if not for all the injuries to better QBs last year
So lets circle back to the ‘accuracy’ claim again…..
Baker Mayfield was #19 in the NFL in completion % at 64.3% for all passes thrown. This particular stat is the best indicator of overall “accuracy” and is not biased by injuries to better QBs.
Bottom line – Baker’s “career year” puts him almost exactly in the middle of the pack compared to other NFL QBs.
Mayfield is not really top 10 in any category that matters – much less top 5….
March 19th, 2024 at 11:57 pm
Tbbucs3 Says:
March 19th, 2024 at 8:20 pm
Baker did hit a wide open Palmer plently of times
——–
Define plenty.
Also if he did hit him ‘plenty’ of times, it means he missed him (many x plenty).
March 20th, 2024 at 4:45 am
he’s out there smiling and talking way too much…perfect for mic’d up type of crap…but if he wants to level up, he seems to need to get more hyper focused and serious…
chris and mike don’t act like it’s a party – they’re f’in serious…
but i notice this with a lot of rookies…they come in so dam thrilled to be in the league…they’re all smily, giddy and gung ho…
sometimes players lose that in year 2 or 3 and buckle down and focus on balling out…it’s certainly been happening for rb1 and zyon…they are smiling less and producing more…
i’ve seen sideline clips of palmer and he is talking so much yang to evans or godwin on the sidelines sometimes – yet they stay completely focused and hold their frame…they don’t dumb down to that rookie mentality…
sorry to see or assess it this way, but it’s what i see from watching closely from afar…
with that said, palmer has mad talent…maybe he blossoms this year and becomes that dangerous number 3 that is more like a number 2…
with all that said, this isn’t a knock on palmer…he just acts young, because he is…or maybe i’m just getting old…lol…or maybe it’s a combo of the 2
March 20th, 2024 at 5:06 am
also i forgot he was a 6th round pick…
he looks to be a steal in the 6th…
and if i recall he made some spectacular grabs last year…i think more maybe in preseason tho…
and he and baker def missed on a few biggies…
that being said, he has a super high ceiling for a 6th rounder…
it’ll be interesting to see how quickly in the draft we go receiver – it will show how much confidence they have in palmer moving forward, and if they’re looking to part ways with chris down the road…
so it we go receiver fairly early, brass is a little iffy on the #2 & #3 receiver spots…
#TheNotForLongLeague
March 20th, 2024 at 11:50 am
Oh please, no! LOL 🙂