Bucs Already Getting Overlooked For 2024
February 4th, 2024
No respect.
The Bucs advanced to the NFC division round and though losing to Detroit, the Bucs had the Lions on the ropes. It was a close game throughout.
In no way did the Bucs embarrass themselves or have some wild-arsed comeback in which Detroit played Santa Claus like five or six times.
The Bucs were only one of eight teams still alive. That’s the top 25 percent of the league.
This apparently would be news to Gilberto Manzano of SI.com. He looked at the top-10 teams that didn’t play in a conference championship game last week and how he would rank them on their chances to win the Super Bowl for next season.
You guessed it. Despite the Bucs advancing to the divisional round, Manzano doesn’t believe the Bucs are among the top 14 teams for 2024 (Manzano did not include teams in the AFC and NFC Championship games).
Let’s think about this for a second. It appears the Bucs ought to be getting back their quarterback. The Bucs got solid if not strong play from rookies and as we all know, quality rookies improve in their second season.
And, a lot of the dead money on the salary cap gets cleared out for next year. So the Bucs should be able to keep a bunch of their talent or buy others to fill holes.
But no, they are not among Manzano’s top-14 teams in the NFL for 2024, despite getting to the NFL’s elite eight.
The Bucs really are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL.
#Sad
February 4th, 2024 at 12:04 am
The Bucs and Baker thrive when they are counted out.
February 4th, 2024 at 12:10 am
I feel sorry for short people, you know. When it rains, they’re the last to know.
February 4th, 2024 at 12:19 am
Bowles team crumble against winning teams…
Defense often looking outdated…
Canales seems to have been the winning factor and now he is gone…
It’s not hard to see where skeptics are coming from…
February 4th, 2024 at 12:42 am
Count the Bucs out every day all day. Bucs have no chance when they are expected to win. Bucs play gawdawful ball when they are supposed to be the better team. Bucs need to focus on getting the O-line built back up and focus on a pass rush. The Bucs ranking will improve if we get wins. Why don’t you get Sean Sullivan to give you some info on who Bucs can pick up in the draft. We need a center–ask Sean then write about that and stop worrying over our lack of respect in early February. lol! anything for a story meanwhile FA is around the corner. Now that would be interesting to read about.
February 4th, 2024 at 12:43 am
The better teams in the league have a distinctive identity so I’m hoping Coach Bowles & Coen recognize the Bucs are in need of a pose their will type of adjustment! POINT BLANK the Bucs lack physicality on both sides of the ball! Every team that beat the Bucs this past season controlled time of possession through out the whole game and Mr. Coen that has to stop!!
February 4th, 2024 at 1:14 am
Until they have Mayfield and Evans locked up they will not get any love. Right now they all count Evans out of Tampa. If it wasn’t for Evans the Detroit game wouldn’t of even been close.
February 4th, 2024 at 1:28 am
I wouldn’t want it any other way. The team responded well with massive doubters…they can do it again.
February 4th, 2024 at 2:31 am
We beat exactly two teams with a winning record.. Bowles is still our HC. Our best weapon is not a lock to return (Mike Evans), and Mayfield might be out. QB again. Oh, and our schedule will consist of division winners who might be healthy when we play them. The turnover in our coaches is probably a good thing, but you can’t be certain. I’m confident that Licht will draft well, but what are the odds that we have rookies actually contributing two consecutive seasons? The cap situation is what it is, so unlikely that an impactful free agent signs on. The rest of our division should be improved, since it’s hard to imagine they could be any worse. More questions than answers at this point, and perfectly logical that anyone lacking a team bias would not rank us very high right now. It’s all speculation, and Tom Brady has a new career. Get over it. Tampa is still missing from the World Map of Gummy Drop, and you don’t see me whining about that…..very often.
February 4th, 2024 at 2:46 am
Joe. This writer is a dick. I think his rwal name is Jack Clark.
February 4th, 2024 at 3:02 am
JBF … ‘The Bucs really are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL. #Sad’.
Got a hunch that if you took a poll of JBFers today, most would probably rank the Bucs mid-to-lower third of NFL teams for 2024. And in early Feb, it really wouldn’t matter one lick. The Bucs thrive on being overlooked.
Like 1sparkybuc says: ‘More questions than answers at this point … it’s all speculation’.
February 4th, 2024 at 3:26 am
I mean… no offense Joe, but I’ve been telling y’all this for over a decade.
The Bucs have always been disrespected, even when we had a generational defense in the late 90s / early 00s. Even our 1st Super Bowl win was disrespected. And in some ways, you could say the same about the 2nd one (we “bought” Brady, it was the Covid season, etc.)
This is nothing new.
February 4th, 2024 at 3:35 am
I have to say, it’s a fair assessment.
We had a very hard time beating winning teams.
We lost our OC.
We lost a bunch of coaches, really.
The defense was horrible in our last game.
Our QB was up and down all year.
All are facts…doesn’t mean we can’t win the SB, but it certainly is enough to convince others we cannot.
Too early anyway. We still need to re-sign players, see how the team handles free agency, and then the draft. Lots of time.
February 4th, 2024 at 3:37 am
unbelievable, we need two more rings in the next decade to put that the rest and become a dynasty.
February 4th, 2024 at 3:40 am
@Bonzai – I’m all for it… LFG!!!
But on the subject of disrespect, it felt like the league hated us for trading to acquire Gruden, and they’re been taking it out on us ever since.
February 4th, 2024 at 3:44 am
I still don’t believe in Bowles, but at least next season I’m open to the possibility of him having success. I’m hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Maybe the guy really can build something. If he falls flat It would not shock me.
February 4th, 2024 at 4:26 am
It does suck sometimes they are the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL.
But it does help with winning some money with the odds makers.
February 4th, 2024 at 5:45 am
They counted us out this season too. It’s a shame they don’t give us credit for coming back after Brady. However, on the other hand, we may lose Baker, Evans, and others. Hope not! Everything is unknown and shaky with coaching too. And isn’t SI shaky too? They did just lay off most of their publishing staff. Go Bucs!
February 4th, 2024 at 6:11 am
“a lot of the dead money on the salary cap gets cleared up for next year. So the Bucs should be able to keep a bunch of their talent or buy some others to fill holes.”
Um – well – thats just not true…..
2024 Dead $:
Evans – $12.2M
LD54 – $2.7M
Mayfield – $2.3M
Greg Gaines – $1.9M
Winfield Jr – $1.6M
Feiler – $1.03M
Ryan Jensen – $5.97M
Russell Gage – $2.16M (if cut)
2023 rollover (incentives mainly) – $3.75M
There’s $33.5M off the salary cap right there for 8 players who are not under contract and/or won’t be with the team in 2024. And there’s plenty more pushed forward coming due in 2025 as well….
The Bucs have an estimated $35.57M in cap space available and only 34 players (+ 12 Practice squad players) under contract.
Estimated contracts for FA players the Bucs intend to try and resign:
Mayfield – $27.1M per spotrac
Evans – $23.8M per spotrac
Winfield Jr – $18.5M per spotrac
LD54 – $6M
McLaughlin – $4M
That adds up to a hair under $80M needed to sign just those 5 “must sign” Bucs free agents.
Do the math – $35M available – with $80M needed to resign our “must resign” players….
Can it be done? (just resigning those 5 players?) – Maybe.
But the Bucs will have to push about $50M down the road in the form of signing bonuses and backloaded contracts in order to pull it off (more ‘can kicking’).
Point is – $ is still VERY tight this year and the Bucs will have to push a bunch more salary cap $s into the future to be competitive in 2024.
February 4th, 2024 at 6:22 am
Whatever. Top 14 is better then where we projected last year. To early to say. The draft, and free A hasn’t even begun yet.
February 4th, 2024 at 6:24 am
Buccaneer Bonzai Says:
February 4th, 2024 at 3:35 am
I have to say, it’s a fair assessment.
——
Any assessment of what teams will be at the end of September made in Early Feb before the draft and free agency is a dumb assessment and a worthless read.
February 4th, 2024 at 6:30 am
I think it depends on the key players we need to sign. Without Evans and Baker, I don’t think we win our division.
February 4th, 2024 at 6:32 am
Unless the Falcons get an elite QB then none of these teams are going to be drastically different next year. Amazes me how some people are paid to analyze football.
February 4th, 2024 at 6:37 am
Did they not factor in Bucs have one of the softest strength of schedule again in 2024?
If Bucs do falter some things will get explain away.” But But he had x Offensive Coordinators in y amount of years”.
February 4th, 2024 at 7:33 am
unbelievable Says:
February 4th, 2024 at 3:40 am
@Bonzai – I’m all for it… LFG!!!
But on the subject of disrespect, it felt like the league hated us for trading to acquire Gruden, and they’re been taking it out on us ever since.
*********************************************************
Actually, IMO, it goes all the way back to the inception of the franchise.
And, to be honest, we did nothing in the first two seasons to earn it. We did earn it in the third season, but got slapped in the face with a now, institutionalized disrespect.
Those who cling to the idea that ‘we thrive on that’ need to take a look at our all time winning percentage. Not to mention the ‘losing mentality’ that has plagued us throughout most of our franchise. Brooks, Sapp, and Lynch (per stories I’ve heard here) got together and decided to change that culture within the team and got a Super Bowl out of it. After they were gone, however, we slid right back into the losing mentality until Brady showed up.
Even when we were winning, we got no respect.
Until we build a dynasty, that’s just the way it will be.
February 4th, 2024 at 7:36 am
Well a ” watching paint dry post” whatever.
Maybe write this in when camp starts in July
February 4th, 2024 at 7:56 am
Tye stated:
Bowles team crumble against winning teams…
Defense often looking outdated…
Canales seems to have been the winning factor and now he is gone…
It’s not hard to see where skeptics are coming from…
I agree although time will tell, I think Bowles will get exposed this year.
February 4th, 2024 at 8:11 am
I’m with CleanHouse.
Not a Bowles fan…. but am open to his success.
Hard to justify some of his personnel moves and clock management.
He’s .500 as the Bucs head coach.
Mediocrity sucks.
February 4th, 2024 at 8:29 am
They always have been overlooked except for the brief Brady years.
February 4th, 2024 at 9:05 am
Good, we got them right where we want them. Bring Chip Baker back.
February 4th, 2024 at 9:07 am
As for being 500 the NFL is set up for parity or parody if you will. What was the chiefs regular season record?
February 4th, 2024 at 9:12 am
PICKGRIN! That wins post of the day!
You need to put that up every day until the guys who are scream “sign everybody” to ridiculous contracts understand that its impossible without mortgaging the future.
February 4th, 2024 at 9:17 am
I agree with the original post except for one thing. As others have mentioned the Bucs (most teams IMO) fare better when disrespected. So my only change is from #sad to #glad.
Again achieving the unexpected is far more satisfying than simply living up to expectations.
I was truly entertained by the Bucs last year.
Bottom line for me is I agree with the guys like D.R. and exactly what Tony Marks posted.
“Any assessment of what teams will be at the end of September made in Early Feb before the draft and free agency is a dumb assessment and a worthless read.”
February 4th, 2024 at 9:18 am
The Bucs have the 8th most cap space this off-season. The least amount of dead cap as of Jan. They have contracts to restructure, and games to be played with numbers. The Bucs are going to get contracts done with our top players. They are going to draft well, this draft lines up really well for the positions we need to fill most except for edge rusher (unless Licht finds another Yaya).
February 4th, 2024 at 9:22 am
As for expectations of 2024, do not overlook the facts:
– we still have a career loser as a HC
– we haven’t had success vs. winning teams
– we will play a difficult schedule
– the entire NFC South will be better
– cap problems still remain
– Mayfield’s career has been inconsistent
– there’s a good chance Evans is gone
This is not a good football team – it just won a playoff game when the opponent laid down and lost the next.
Dream all you want but rarely do dreams become reality.
February 4th, 2024 at 9:27 am
Many feel the only reason they got that far is because the division was bad and the Eagles collapsed. Although the team was better than expected, the experts argue that they never saw a strong convincing win against a quality opponent that wasn’t on a slide. The team also did lose 6 of 7 in the middle of the season. And that week 17 loss against the Saints also left a bad taste in people’s mouths.
It’s also becoming evident that the team will have to make a major decision on a few of the free agents. Signing Mayfield, Evans, and Winfield, and having enough room to sign any improvements, without mortgaging the future again, is going to be very very very difficult.
February 4th, 2024 at 9:37 am
Manzano, just like Peter King and the other national media types, don’t know what they’re talking about. King and the other national guys, graded out as an F in predicting the Bucs record for this past year, so why should we value what they think?
A lot will happen between now and the start of the season. I don’t envy Licht’s job of managing our cap. I’d love to bring everyone back and even bring in a good FA center, but I have a harsh cap space reality to face.
Let’s look at predictions for next year after FA and see where we stand. I’d love for Joe to poll our LOCAL media insiders, who know the Bucs, and get an opinion poll for next season – after the FA dust settles.
February 4th, 2024 at 9:56 am
Bucs were a MUCH better team at the end of the season than at the beginning, the 2 Detroit games showed that. Can’t get around no pass rush and poor O line play tho
February 4th, 2024 at 10:32 am
This team seems to play better as underdogs! When they get too much good press is when they play bad! I’ll take it and hope every team that plays the Bucs takes that week off! Sign BM6, ME13, AW31, CM4, LD54 and draft well like last season. All will be fine!!
February 4th, 2024 at 10:47 am
February 4th, 2024 at 10:47 am
I’m growing a little weary of this meme…
“we haven’t had success vs. winning teams”
DUH that is the method MOST teams in ALL sports employ. Win the games you’re supposed to and survive the ones your not. Are the Bucs the only team that lost to winning teams this year?
So the Bucs go into historic Lambeau Field and Baker sets a QB record as the Bucs seal club the Pack in their own hallowed crib!!! Were the Pack bad? Losers? What does that then make the Cowboys who lost at home in the playoffs to the same team the Bucs crushed.
Baker Mayfield led a dramatic comeback against one of the real up and coming teams and QB’s in the league at Houston. Yep the D CHOKED…other wish to add Bowles choked…whatever…Mayfield had the team in position for a win over a very talented young up and coming team.
AGAIN…Zen saying…you see where you place your attention. If you wish to focus on the flaws of ANY team you can find them. All teams have flaws.
February 4th, 2024 at 11:46 am
Defense ran a strange scheme. Looked like linemen one gapping and reliance on the LB’s to cover any open gaps. Good in theory tough in real life. The players are pros let ’em play!
February 4th, 2024 at 12:08 pm
FortMyersDave Says:
February 4th, 2024 at 2:46 am
Joe. This writer is a dick. I think his rwal name is Jack Clark.
^^^
😂😂😂
February 4th, 2024 at 12:22 pm
Tye is completely wrong.
February 4th, 2024 at 12:37 pm
unbelievable Says:
“But on the subject of disrespect, it felt like the league hated us for trading to acquire Gruden, and they’re been taking it out on us ever since.”
I think there has always been disrespect…but honestly, it was earned in the early years. We were owned by a bigot and had plenty of losing seasons.
But…on the topic of Gruden…I don’t think he was really liked much around the league because of his attitude, even back then. So when they showed video of Tony Dungy packing his things into his SUV at night in the rain, it really turned them against us.
Tony is a forgiving sort, but the media had a field day with that. And Gruden was as two-faced as they come with the players.
February 4th, 2024 at 12:39 pm
Shane Callahan Says
“Tye is completely wrong.”
Not really.
The Bucs beat what? 2 winning teams counting the playoffs?
Still, those two games were fantastic to watch!
February 4th, 2024 at 12:58 pm
Awwwwww he huurt so many feelings with that story, and of course the fanbois came out because they are offended by it because it was casually slanted at their teen idol. Who cares what the clown says? Unless we have a Reid/Mahomies duo the Bucs will always be disrespected. Heck even the greatest of the greatest was disrespected in 2020 and 2021 for league MVP because he played for the Bucs. We have Blowles/probably Baker +fanbois, no way even psychics pick Bucs to do much!
February 4th, 2024 at 1:38 pm
The Bucs did make it to the second round of the playoffs but their wins wasn’t against the very good teams. They lost to Lions, didn’t get embarrassed and played pretty good. They beat a horrible Eagles team. Watching that game the Eagles didn’t even show up. Barely beat the Panthers. Got blown out at home by division rival. The looked really bad. Jags were on a tail spin. The Packer game was probably the best they looked all year. And then barely beat a horrible Falcon team and the Panthers. I know Joe said if you think Bowles got a C+ or lower grade you don’t know what you’re talking about and just hating on Bowles. They lost 6 of 7 last year and their wins weren’t very impressive except for a couple. Comparing 2024 opponents against 2023 opponents it sure does look like the Bucs are going to have a very rough schedule against a lot of good teams. A lot of the Bucs money will be used in house so getting better by free agents is going to be very rough. Need a great draft and big growth from the young players to make it back to the playoffs.
February 4th, 2024 at 1:44 pm
Bucs probably have the most offseason question marks.
Free Agency could leave them as the worst team or top 5.
We’ll see.
February 4th, 2024 at 1:57 pm
A stooge named Gilberto probably thinks the NFL is a soccer league. I’m not a Bowles fan but results force me to consider that maybe he is improving after all. Canales was obviously good enough that he is now a head coach, so maybe Mr. Kentucky will be good as well.
February 4th, 2024 at 2:17 pm
Pickgrin Says:
“There’s $33.5M off the salary cap right there for 8 players who are not under contract and/or won’t be with the team in 2024. And there’s plenty more pushed forward coming due in 2025 as well….
The Bucs have an estimated $35.57M in cap space available and only 34 players (+ 12 Practice squad players) under contract.”
Thanks for your post. I was also thinking about posting a very similar comment with line item cost. And I totally agree with the math you have conveyed. I appreciate post that put out the facts. Just a couple of points.
1. This is the norm in the league. If you did a similar analysis of the majority of teams in the league, they have the same math issues of 2024 Free Agents, Dead Cap and Cap Space. A third or more of the teams actually start off in the negative. Tampa’s positive $33M-$37 cap space puts us between 10th-17th depending on who’s expert math and assumptions you use. I agree, the mortgage always looks bad if you are utterly opposed to debt. But rarely does anyone own their home. It’s all debt with hope of value increase.
2. The value increase here is the salary cap. For 2023 it was $225M. It is project to be 2024 for $243M. About an 8% increase every year. This is only a gross estimate but that’s $283M by 2026. If you lock your QB, only pay your HOF near retirement wide-out for 2 more years, and lock your all pro Safety for 5 more years… There is plenty of room in the cap especially as you let go of some higher cap hit players and draft well. The 2024 and 2025 draft could bring the Winfields and Davids of tomorrow on rookie contracts for 3-4 more years. We may already have the future Godwin or Evans on our team or in the next couple of drafts. This is part of the reason many of the experts aren’t shy about Baker making anywhere between $30-$40M annual for the next 3 years. And they keep saying the Bucs are in a good place Cap wise. While many of us look at the mortage payments and the principal and groan.
It took me a few years (because I hate debt, zero credit card balance every month) to realize what the GMs were doing. It’s like any other business. You don’t make money without risk and some borrowing into the future. If you lose hope and always think you have to file chapter 7 bankruptcy rather than manipulating the financial instruments available to you, you are defeating yourself to what the market allows you to do. That does not mean throw money away on bad investments. I’m just saying don’t be shy about best practice debt. Alexander Hamilton and every one in investment banking understands the value in debt.
February 4th, 2024 at 3:35 pm
Well this was a team that played a cupcake schedule in the easiest division in football, and despite that was 4-7. They did recover, but still needed their defense to bail them out in the last game of the year vs, by far, the worst team in football to make the playoffs. Then in the playoffs they faced a team having a historic collapse.
With that said, the Bucs had a chance to get to the NFC Championship game, they gave their QB the ball with 2 minutes left, they had a chance, only to see the QB collapse under pressure.
You got a 20th ranked offense, but a 7th ranked defense.
The question is, where or how do you improve — and if you can improve does it offset what is going to be a pretty difficult schedule.
The Bucs have to bring back Winfield and Evans — and I’m OK with Baker coming back as well, although I’d still look to upgrade via trade. You have to see if David wants to come back, and replacing White will not be easy.
But the Bucs should be improved in the middle of the offensive interior line with a stronger and improved Cody, plus whoever Licht drafts at G/C, which I’m sure will happen. Also the Bucs can improve at #3 WR and another S. So there are places the Bucs can improve via the draft or cheap to mid-tier FAs.
February 4th, 2024 at 4:01 pm
I don’t think a good chunk of people will respect Mayfield until he has success consistently for 2-3 seasons. I think this is driving this thinking and I’m pretty sure we’re going to see a lot of disrespect the Bucs and their chances next year because of this in large part.
February 4th, 2024 at 4:38 pm
Seriously, who cares what “they” think?
February 4th, 2024 at 6:41 pm
The good news for the Bucs is their division will continue to be exceptionally weak with the Saints standing pat with their coaching staff and Carolina and ATL making horrendous hires. 9-8 wins the division next year again why not the Bucs again?
February 4th, 2024 at 7:04 pm
Anyone making predictions before Free agency and the draft, is an idiot.
How could you possiby make an assessment?
February 4th, 2024 at 7:47 pm
lfg
February 4th, 2024 at 10:44 pm
GhostofBrady Says:
“Alexander Hamilton and every one in investment banking understands the value in debt.”
Sure until the bottom falls out, everything is great. But when you’ve got $35 TRILLION in debt racked up – its time to start building bunkers…..
February 4th, 2024 at 11:21 pm
Pickgrin Says:
“Sure until the bottom falls out, everything is great. But when you’ve got $35 TRILLION in debt racked up – its time to start building bunkers…..”
Tru dat man. But I ain’t gonna blame the $35 Trillion debt we passing on to our great-great grandkids on investment bankers and the job creators in this country. They probably on the hook for $2-3 Trillion of that in corporate wealth fare and bail outs. Not to sound politically but most of that debt is on the industrial military complex, G.I. joe globalist nation builders and the national pension program – which we all don’t want to default on until it’s our great-great grandkids’ turn to cash on it.
February 5th, 2024 at 7:13 am
Quick reminder that SI is going out of business….