Antoine Winfield: “A Lot Has Changed” With Eagles Since Week 3
January 11th, 2024
Better off catching than running.
Back in the third game of the season, the Bucs were undefeated (2-0). That didn’t last long as the defending NFC champion Eagles put a hurting on them at The Licht House.
Nothing worked for the Bucs on offense that night. Baker Mayfield only threw for 146 yards, his longest being a 13-yard pass.
The run game, the Bucs’ bread and butter (well, they act like it is), did nothing that night. Rachaad White had just 38 yards rushing as the Bucs totaled 41. It was brutal.
Yeah, hard to beat a team that way.
Never mind that game now, Bucs stud safety Antoine Winfield said yesterday.
“I feel like a lot has changed,” Winfield said.
He isn’t wrong.
The Bucs were just learning offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ offense, who was learning on the fly himself a a first-time playcaller.
Since, the Bucs have put together a really nice passing game when the team decides to use it. Unfortunately, the Bucs want to flaunt their weak link in the offense — a between-the-tackles, ground-and-pound attack.
That would be nice if the Bucs were built for that. But the Bucs are built to pass. But yeah, let’s run it anyway, just because. Who needs points to start a game, for example?
Since that Week 3 loss, Philadelphia has collapsed, specifically the last six games. The Eagles have lost five of those six. A big reason is the Eagles cannot stop any passing attack, not even the sorry Giants.
Shoot, Giants’ No. 3? quarterback Tyrod Taylor — Tyrod Taylor! — (Remember him? Mike Smith’s buddy) roasted the Eagles for nearly 300 yards to finish the season on Sunday.
Yikes!
Currently, the Eagles are 31st in the league defending the pass, 252 yards a game. Against the run, the Eagles are still pretty good. They are 10th in the NFL allowing 103 yards a game.
So with the Eagles struggling terribly against the pass, and the Bucs having three of the best weapons in the passing game, one would think the Bucs certainly will try to slice and dice the Eagles through the air Monday night, right?
Only those who haven’t watched the Bucs much this season would come to that conclusion.
The latest on Baker and the @Buccaneers today. What this offense needs to do against the Eagles Monday. #gobucs #eagles #nfln #nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/3R06RRgEnd
— Sara Walsh (@Sara_Walsh) January 11, 2024
January 11th, 2024 at 12:08 am
So our mad genius HC will be thinking….”hahaha Thats what they will be thinking we will do…so we will run the ball …”
Go Bucs!
January 11th, 2024 at 12:42 am
Fire Todd so someone who isn’t stubbornly blind can at least give us a hopeful chance to compete.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:03 am
Keep dumping off to White underneath and force them to try stopping it, then that opens everything else up a little more.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:17 am
1st down – Rachaad White dive right for one yard.
2nd down – Rachaad White stands still in the pistol for the handoff and is buried by an unchecked a-gap blitz. 3 yard loss.
3rd down – Mayfield sacked for a 6 yard loss.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:39 am
Supposedly the Eagles give up easy 5 and 8 yard outs to WRs without really contesting it – that’s what Eagles fans complain about anyways. If true, then great, since Baker can’t throw for more than 10 yards with any accuracy anyways.
I don’t care how the Bucs get it done, just take what the Eagles give them and don’t be dumb and have a dumb plan — and make adjustments.
In any case, if good Baker shows up, the Bucs have a chance, a good chance. If bad Baker shows up, who has went out there and fallen on his face the last two weeks with the playoffs on the line, the Bucs will lose by 30.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:40 am
Wow Negative Nancy.
I actually think the Bucs will run the ball well, but not until the second half.
We need to get passes to R White, Godwin and Evans on the first drive.
Doesn’t have to be down the field passing either.
Canales should call a RB screen on the first play and let them over pursue.
Get the ball out quickly to start and run Off Schedule.
Please stop the DT jet sweep. It doesn’t work.
Try handing off to Cade Otton like in the pre season.
If Canales is ready and the Bucs actually execute, I think they can win this game.
LFG Bucs. It’s playoff time baby.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:43 am
For what it’s worth, I don’t have the general sense of doom I generally have before the Bucs go out and get destroyed. Maybe I have been doing the #TeamPositive gimmick long enough that I’ve become a true believer. Not sure, but I wouldn’t say I’m confident, but I don’t feel like the outcome of this game is already predetermined.
So Baker Bois, you should be happy about that.
#TEAMPOSITIVE!
January 11th, 2024 at 1:45 am
the game plans from Bowles and Canales the past 2 weeks makes me want to bash my head in.
If Todd Bowles primary objective on offense is to not turn the ball over,versus uh, scoring points- we will get destroyed.
January 11th, 2024 at 2:07 am
What this offense needs to do against the Eagles Monday is not waste first and second down running between the tackles
January 11th, 2024 at 2:57 am
I’m not exactly sure what to expect on Monday nite.
Does Tampa Bucs show up with their full ensemble of Tampa 2 lawnchair zero coverage defense, like they did against the cowboys last year in round one of the playoffs; where the game was over after quarter 1? 25-0?
Or do they take this week seriously and actually study eagles film and study tendencies?
Personally I’m not that concerned with this offense, it is what it is.
Tampas defense is what gets us going. Big fat double V getting all tee up and firing away up the middle. Do they man up, or do they simply take the day off like they did last year in the playoffs against those cowboys…
To D or not to D; that is the question.
January 11th, 2024 at 5:03 am
Sirianni was the Philly fans’ hero last year. He was an officious coach who thought he was the star of the show.
Now they hate him. He has lost the team.
The way the Bucs win is to be aggressive on Defense and crowd the WRs. None of this cushion crap. Force Hurts to move and he will fail. He’s not well.
On Offense, drop the cute plays. The key sweeps, WR screens etc. Throw the ball downfield.
Get the lead. Score a TD on first drive to rattle them.
January 11th, 2024 at 5:36 am
The thing about the WR screens is the plays should go to Godwin. No. 83 hasn’t
done anything to earn any touches on offense in both the pass game and WR
screens. The other rookie that Canales has a little too much faith in is Palmer.
He only has a 57% completion rate. We need a veteran presence for this all important game.
January 11th, 2024 at 6:07 am
15 targets a piece for Evans, Godwin and White. I think that production alone = victory
January 11th, 2024 at 6:24 am
@Modhair
That’s a decent start of a plan. I agree. I would throw in to mix it up well. The Ultimate game plan. The question is can Canales come up with the right mix and will Todd Bowles Stay Out of it? Seems everytime he removes his philosophy of offense, good things happen. Last and final question even with the best of plans is whether or not the qb can execute his part of it. Being hubbled that is.
But a tight plan. Should work, Would work if if …
It’s down to the qb. Everybody else is as ready as their going to be.
January 11th, 2024 at 6:34 am
Bob in valrico,
I agree, Canales has too much faith in a timid, scared,Trey “Bobble n Fumble the Ball” Palmer. They are blown away by his speed. Let’s be honest, Palmer has speed, but that’s about it. He’s afraid of contact n admitted it during a interview. When he’s running on a pass play, he doesn’t use his natural speed, he’ tends to tip toe, look for out of bounds, n is reluctant to put the jets on due to fear of contact. It’s playoff time so put Dave Moore in, he has several years of playoff experience. Don’t understand reason Canales lured him from Seattle then put him behind a struggling rookie in Palmer.
January 11th, 2024 at 6:40 am
This game will be won or lost by the Bucs offensive line. IF they can slow the eagles pass rush and have moderate success running the ball the Bucs will win. If the offensive line gets dominated and Mayfield is under constant pressure to relase the ball early, the Eagles will win. I really beleive the Bucs have the talent at the skill positions to match anyone in the league but the game is played in the trenches. Hoping for a Bucs victory.
January 11th, 2024 at 6:43 am
Rod … ‘Maybe I have been doing the #TeamPositive gimmick long enough that I’ve become a true believer.’
Wait a minute Rod. Are you now telling me that #TeamPositive wasn’t real? That you were just pretending to be positive? And here I thought you’d been converted.
January 11th, 2024 at 6:59 am
I get running the ball during the season (actually I don’t get it, but what evs) to try and establish your style of offense. It’s now the playoffs, you attack your opponents weakness until they can stop it. If we lose by trying to run the ball, while having no success in doing it, Bowles should be shown the door.
January 11th, 2024 at 7:04 am
How to keep it close….run run run
January 11th, 2024 at 7:43 am
I don’t expect to win this game. The offense has completely disappeared since the 4 game win streak ended. I would hope they compete and show some enthusiasm and energy for a change. They look like the walking dead most of the time.
January 11th, 2024 at 7:56 am
Evans and Godwin need to speak up as team leaders to Bowles and let them know that the path to touchdowns is through them. Tompkins shouldn’t touch the ball. He is a lightweight. His speed hasn’t helped him get open. Palmer should get one deep shot a game. Use target Evans on the sidelines, the Bucs need to use their biggest target instead of throwing the ball to the small guys.
Evans and Godwin do need to have input into the game plan as the early downs have been unproductive. 17 games and it is what it is, a slow developing running game that gives the ball to a hesitant back who doesn’t have the footwork to make the first move to avoid the loss. White is an A grade receiver and a D grade RB.
January 11th, 2024 at 8:24 am
use the pass the setup the running lanes hopefully… definitely concerned how it seems everyone is saying we will win. our chances ride with baker’s status
January 11th, 2024 at 9:08 am
Joe … ‘Since, the Bucs have put together a really nice passing game when the team decides to use it. Unfortunately, the Bucs want to flaunt their weak link in the offense — a between-the-tackles, ground-and-pound attack.’
Bucs ran on 439 of their 1047 plays this season … 41.9%. Not excessively high at all IMO (probably close to the NFL average this season).
Bucs ran 286 times out of 586 plays in our 9 wins this season … on 48.8% of the plays. They gained 942 rushing in those 9 games … 104.7 yards/game for a 3.3 YPC average.
Bucs ran only 153 times out of 567 plays in our 8 losses this season … on only 33.2% of the plays. They gained 567 rushing in those 8 games … 70.9 yards/game for a 3.7 YPC average.
Bucs passed it 282 times in our 9 wins (31.3 passes/game) & completed 186 of those (66.0%) for 2161 passing yards … 240.1 yards/game.
Bucs passed it 285 times in our 8 losses (35.6 passes/game) & completed 178 of those (62.5%) for 1883 passing yards … 235.4 yards/game.
Just looking at runs & passes, it appears that Bucs had a more ‘balanced attack’ in our 9 wins (48.8% run-pass) than we did in our 8 losses (33.2% run-pass). And yet, we ran for a higher per carry average in our losses (3.7 YPC) than we did in our wins (3.3 YPC). But we stuck with the run in the wins & that possibly opened up some better passing opportunities (Baker passed for 66.0% completions in wins but only 62.5% in our losses). Or maybe he’s an up-and-down (aka inconsistent) QB … like most others.
Actually there are a LOT of other factors at play in any seasonal analysis. For instance, in our 9 wins the Bucs averaged 65.1 plays per game & 31:40 TOP. In our 8 losses the Bucs averaged only 57.6 plays/game & 28:20 TOP. BIG DIFFERENCE.
In our 9 wins the Bucs ran on 31.8 plays/game for 104.7 YPG average. In our 8 losses the Bucs ran on only 19.1 plays/game for 70.9 YPG average. BIG DIFFERENCE.
And oh ya, Bucs led at the half in 8 of our 9 wins (and were tied at the half in the other win). But Bucs were losing at the half in 6 of our 8 losses (winning 17-10 in one loss and tied at the half in our other loss). BIG DIFFERENCE.
Our slow starts made for some very close games in our wins, but REALLY hurt us in our losses. Lots of reasons for that IMO, and it’s not as simple as just saying that we needed to pass more (could probably go for ‘We needed to pass better so we could start faster’ though).
January 11th, 2024 at 9:28 am
Thanks, DR. I just want my Bucs to bring their A+ game MN. Dropping Canales on his head beforehand isn’t a bad idea, either. Hey Joe, how about updating that AWJ pic? It’s old and icky. He’s better looking than that on a bad day. Go Bucs!
January 11th, 2024 at 9:34 am
Defense Rules… thanks for the informative stats.
I think many of us still have PTSD from BL running it up the gut last year – may flavor our view this year.
Some say, Baker often misses wide open receivers, while throwing less sucessful targets. I’d like to see stats along those lines. Is it myth or true?… and what percentage compared to other QBs.
January 11th, 2024 at 9:40 am
Short easy completions to White, CG, and Otton, then throw deep and let the run (outside the tackles) work itself in!
January 11th, 2024 at 9:41 am
Eagles 31st at defending the pass
Bucs 31st at rushing yards per game
Bowles, “Our ability to run the ball is one of the top 3 keys to this game.”
WTF?!!!
January 11th, 2024 at 10:26 am
BucaneroJim … ‘Some say, Baker often misses wide open receivers, while throwing less sucessful targets. I’d like to see stats along those lines. Is it myth or true?’
I suspect that NEXGEN stats could provide that answer. Even still, it’d be very situational I would think. For instance, White caught 91.4% of the balls thrown to him this year, but his Average Depth of Target (ADOT) was MINUS 0.5 yards. Gut feeling is that there weren’t too many defenders around him at that point on the field.
Contrast that with Chris Godwin who caught 63.8% of the balls thrown to him (a full 10% less than last year BTW). His ADOT? 9.0 yards beyond the LOS. Probably more defenders around him at that point on the field.
January 11th, 2024 at 10:55 am
One would think that would be the game plan. So if we start trying to run it up the gut with no positive results, who do we scream at besides the TV! This is one and done. The Eagles know that we are one dementional. They will try off the bat to double team Mike. Then they will cut off all crossing routes to prevent Godwin from getting open. They need to really mix in some Raachard and Cade and maybe surprise some people with a sprinkle of some Payne Durham. Devin Thompkins is an afterthought. Trey Palmer still needs another year to learn how to separate from NFL defensive backs and the concentration of holding on to the football. So much talent not being trusted. God only knows what will show up Monday night. If we stink up RayJay one more time heads need to roll. NFC South champions or not.
January 11th, 2024 at 1:11 pm
DefenseRules – nice stats and analysis. The one stat you are missing, which would be really informative, is how many of those runs were on 1st/2nd down in the wins vs the losses? I’d bet a MUCH higher percentage of 1st/2nd down runs in the losses. So we may have relatively balanced numbers overall, the % of runs on 1st down especially is somewhere near the league high.
Which is part of why our 3rd down stats were so impressive. During most of the season, we were much higher converting 3rd downs than most of the NFL. But that’s misleading, because we had WAY more 3rd down opportunities. Good teams don’t do third down… they get the 1st down on either 1st or 2nd… rarely needing 3rd down.
That’s all playcalling.
January 11th, 2024 at 2:26 pm
Antoine, we love you. Please go tell your head coach that getting an early lead will help your defense. Tell him to attack rather than “hope to keep it close.” Thank you.