Late-Afternoon Home Games Are Best For Bucs Receivers
November 30th, 2023
Helped or hurt by the sun?
Fascinating data from the NFL that provides insight into the Bucs’ passing game on several levels.
Yeah, finding this fascinating means Joe has no life. No denial there. Guilty as charged. Joe’s a football nerd, through and through.
Part of what catches Joe’s eye in the following is that the NFL actually recognizes drop stats. To date, drops are not an official NFL stat.
So drops stats are wildly subjective. One guy’s concept of a drop is another guy’s idea of an uncatchable ball. Go ahead and pick three or four sites that compile drops. You’ll likely see three different results.
Well, apparently the gerbils in the NFL’s statgeek office are tracking what they deem as drops. And they have determined which teams drop/catch the most passes depending on kickoff time.
The Bucs on Sunday host the Stinking Panthers at 4 p.m. And per the NFL, based on data tracked since the beginning of the 2016 season, the Bucs have dropped the fewer catchable balls at 4 p.m. kickoffs.
Joe thinks this is relevant because the Bucs’ two best receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, have been together since the 2017 season; Evans was drafted in 2014.
You can see the chart below.
Joe was intrigued to learn some teams struggle catching passes under the lights. Some at 1 p.m. kickoffs.
With the Bucs dropping fewer passes in 4 p.m. games, that start time often is both daytime and nighttime if you think about it. In the second half of the season, 4 p.m. games are under the lights in the fourth quarter. Late in the season the entire second half is played under the lights.
Also, the chart shows the Bucs’ drop rate for 1 p.m. starts and night games is almost identical. And when Tom Brady first came here in 2020, the Bucs played a bunch of night games.
Please note that these stats are only for home games. The data does not include drop rates for road games. So this info on the Bucs is only for games played at The Licht House.
November 30th, 2023 at 10:41 am
Hmmmmmm…
November 30th, 2023 at 10:52 am
Just curious, how many Mayfield TD passes were dropped so far this year? My total is five. Two of which were right in the receiver’s hands, two were “should have been caught,” and one was it would have been a “good catch.” If four of those passes were caught, Mayfield would be in the Top 2 or 3 among NFL QBs. Just sayin…. RESIGN BAKER
November 30th, 2023 at 10:58 am
WJ
I admire your passion. I respect your stats. I largely agree but as far as resigning Baker I think it depends on the money. In a QB driven league some team may have a boatload of cap space and overpay for him.
While I believe Baker was the correct call I’m not a Trask hater. I think both of these guys can play in the league for the right coach and system.
November 30th, 2023 at 11:00 am
Baker is a backup. He will never lead this team to a superbowl. Trade ME, DW, JTS, Hall & start a rebuilding process.
November 30th, 2023 at 11:05 am
WyomingJoe Says:
November 30th, 2023 at 10:52 am
Just curious, how many Mayfield TD passes were dropped so far this year? My total is five. Two of which were right in the receiver’s hands, two were “should have been caught,” and one was it would have been a “good catch.” If four of those passes were caught, Mayfield would be in the Top 2 or 3 among NFL QBs. Just sayin…. RESIGN BAKER
^^^^
How many interceptions did Baker Mayfield throw that were dropped? My total is five. Two of which were right in the defenders hands, two were “should have been intercepted” and one was it would have been a “good interception”. If four of those passes were intercepted, Mayfield would be in the bottom 2 or 3 among NFL QBs. Just sayin…. BAKER MAYFIELD IS AVERAGE AT BEST
November 30th, 2023 at 11:06 am
😂
November 30th, 2023 at 11:20 am
Just hoping we keep the Lights in at the a Licht house and not return to the den of depression this weekend
November 30th, 2023 at 11:44 am
Please, cut the bull crap. Let’s discuss Sundays attendance instead. Also I’d want A.C. Nielson to be sure to let the Glasers know what the game’s viewer turns out to be
November 30th, 2023 at 11:50 am
@Jack Clark, hilarious, man. Cheers
November 30th, 2023 at 11:53 am
If no gloves, hands are less sweaty in 4pm games
November 30th, 2023 at 11:55 am
Touche`
I actually like Baker. I really do. I DO NOT like the belittling of the other qb’s on the team. Desperately judging one freaking throw that should have been caught and calling it proof that Trask can’t possibly is pitifully desperate. And Trask IS Very accurate INCLUDING deep shots. Trask can tread that needle as well… Under fire is the only question for him…
But then again, “If Only” Baker could hit them long I’d say sign him up on a Long contract…..
But he just can’t do it even on an average. He’s Not bad at all. He’s just hasn’t been great with CRITICAL deep shots. Plus he gets stirred a little too easily and when he gets nervous, it’s getting close to interception city. He’s been there before but he’s kept it under decent control this season. Now if we get him some glasses and some platform cleats…..
November 30th, 2023 at 11:56 am
WyomingJoe Says:
November 30th, 2023 at 10:52 am
Just curious, how many Mayfield TD passes were dropped so far this year?
——–
How many INT’s have been dropped this year? By my count, it’s 59.
November 30th, 2023 at 11:58 am
They need to now take into account which direction the stadiums are facing, and the angle of the sun on the field, and they might be on to something.
That will be the great thing about our AI future, you’ll literally just be able to tell it to do all of that for you, and then run the numbers to see if there is a trend or not, and 5 seconds later you got the answer that would have taken some nerd a week to do.
November 30th, 2023 at 1:04 pm
Baker will be lucky to get signed by XFL let alone by Bucs. He is trash and has turned Bucs into a trash. He has had 5 turnovers just in the past two games with 7 near picks. Bucs will resign him whenever he resigned the toilet bowl.
November 30th, 2023 at 1:06 pm
Bucs have same record as Panthers since by week. That tells you how sorry Toilet Bowl with Baker are.
November 30th, 2023 at 2:43 pm
I’m not the greatest at punctuation but RESIGN BAKER probably is the right call. Just keep on yelling it and maybe he will.
What are the odds that Tampa will Re-sign Baker?
November 30th, 2023 at 4:13 pm
Meh, more junk data.
Bucs have also played WAY more early games vs late over these years too
November 30th, 2023 at 5:28 pm
JACK CLARK: Have you watched many footballs games this year? There are ALWAYS passes that mighta/shoulda/coulda been intercepted. So, since you weren’t protesting what I said about Mayfield’s dropped TDs, you must agree with me. Thanks Jack.
November 30th, 2023 at 5:30 pm
RE-SIGN BAKER. Thanks Dwayne…