BSPN: NFC South Is The Land Of The Misfit Toys
November 14th, 2023
“Mediocre” may be good enough.
Joe was listening to Ira’s good friend Chris “Mad Dog” Russo on SiriusXM Radio yesterday and already he is groaning about the playoff field for the NFC.
Joe first heard Russo whine about this last week. Yesterday, he was more adamant.
Russo is already dreading the winner of the NFC South hosting a playoff game. And yes, that may be the Bucs.
That is pretty much what most outside the Tampa Bay area (and the greater New Orleans and Atlanta regions) are saying. They want NFL strongman Roger Goodell to make sure the NFC South winner plays at the worst possible time slot for the opening weekend of the playoffs so they can have a good excuse to miss the game.
Seth Walder of BSPN, a guy who never met a number he didn’t like, thinks the Bucs have a puncher’s chance of making the playoffs. Well, that’s what his numbers tell him to type. This guy Walder cannot think independently without spewing stats.
One thing virtually every stat geek hated to see before the seaosn was Baker Mayfield lining up behind center for the Bucs. They all thought it would be an unmitigated disaster.
So that’s why Walder said he is complimenting Mayfield when he refers to the Bucs’ offense as “mediocre.”
The Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers offense has been surprisingly mediocre — and I mean that as a compliment, because I certainly didn’t envision it entering the season. That could be enough to sneak into the playoffs past the other NFC South misfits, but the Buccaneers are going to need luck on their side.
So while Walder thinks the Bucs and the Dixie Chicks and the slimy Saints are all “misfits,” his statgeek software gives the Bucs a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 26 percent chance of winning the division.
Joe doesn’t think anyone believes the Bucs can travel out to California this weekend and beat the 49ers in their own crib. But man, if they could, that would be such a huge win.
November 14th, 2023 at 4:11 am
Can
November 14th, 2023 at 4:19 am
If they can get to Purdy the way they got to Levis we’ll have a chance.
November 14th, 2023 at 5:01 am
Unfortunately the way we run the ball, the 49ers are probably going to win soundly. I think Bucs got like 20-25% shot winning this game. Lynch seems to want vengeance whenever they play us.
November 14th, 2023 at 5:11 am
If our defensive team captains ball out, and our cornerbacks can hold them to just 2 scores only, which is asking a pile, and the football gawds are smiling on the buccaroos that day; which is asking an even bigger pile; then. anything. is. possible.
November 14th, 2023 at 5:16 am
Because the Bucs since their inception, since ole Leroy was drafted #1 way back when has always been about defense. ALWAYS defense first. Except for a blip, it’s been in the Bucs DNA. It’s time fellas! Time to show up!
November 14th, 2023 at 5:27 am
So you’re saying there’s a chance! Seriously, we have a 35% chance of making the playoffs in the worst conference in football… it’s a Bucs life again!
November 14th, 2023 at 5:30 am
You bet the Bucs have a chance. If they go into this with the attitude that it’s time to bleed, so let’s bleed! You bet they have a chance.
November 14th, 2023 at 6:10 am
Unfortunately, SF has a much better defense than the Bucs, so don’t get your hopes up. It will take a miracle for the Bucs to win this game.
November 14th, 2023 at 6:22 am
I don’t remember there being this much kvetching when the AFC South was the NFL’s punching bag.
November 14th, 2023 at 6:23 am
We are only 11 point underdogs for Sunday carnage.Maybe that will dispell some of the irrational optimism. 11 is a lot. Might be a good bet.
November 14th, 2023 at 6:27 am
“Misfit Toys”
Thanks Joe, now I got that stupid song in my head for the rest of the day.
November 14th, 2023 at 6:51 am
If the team plays like last week we can win. But it seems when the Bucs have a big win they get complacent. Play hard and fly back laughing and joking.
November 14th, 2023 at 6:54 am
First of all, who the hell cares what Russo thinks about the Bucs or the NFC South? He’s just another loud mouth from New York. Go to watch your Giants play. Russo and Stat Geek’s opinions don’t matter; only our does. If we think we can win, then we can. I just want us to play SF hard. If we do, we’ll be primed for the rest of the season. Go Bucs!
November 14th, 2023 at 7:11 am
Do we really want Bowels back next year?????????? Lets build for the long term. Get a new head coach & qb next draft.
November 14th, 2023 at 7:28 am
Hope they dont host the powerhouse Vikings! They cant beat a winning team, LOL
November 14th, 2023 at 7:37 am
The 9rs are solid. With a much better QB. We only play well against bad teams. This looks like a solid beating to me. I hope we get lucky though.
November 14th, 2023 at 7:47 am
I am what most commenters on here would call, just a dumb girl, but in my opinion, all the men on here who are constantly whining about Baker Mayfield, obviously know nothing about football. The Bucs got problems, he ain’t one of them. Any person begging for a new QB in the next draft, does not want to win football games. Rookie quarterbacks were never meant to play right away. They are meant to sit ont the bench and learn. So how would drafting a qb for next year help anything. We need a secondary, a few more offensive lineman, and a running game. Fix those issues, and Baker will get the job done. He wasn’t the only person to walk on at 2 colleges and win the starting job for nothing. His play is as good as any in the NFL. The main problem is every time a qb wins a game, analysts make him the greatest QB to ever play. News flash, every team, and every QB in the league are little more than mediocre. Think about great teams over the years, nothing in the NFL requested to those teams right now. Basket is doing a great job and had kept us in nearly every game, Grow up little boys, be honest, and understand that if he had a team built to his strengths which Cleveland did not do, he and the Bucs will win.
November 14th, 2023 at 7:47 am
A study of baseball pitchers after undergoing UCL repair (Tommy John surgery) showed that their fastball velocity was reduced from 91.3 to 90.6 mph on average. Purdy has good touch and makes good decisions, but you can tell that he really can’t drive the ball into tight windows. A “genius ” like Bowles should find some way to take advantage of this. We will need at least 3 picks to beat the 49rs.
November 14th, 2023 at 8:13 am
That’s what I like about these kinds of games. Everyone expects a beatdown, so if it happens, no big deal. It’s when you lose the games you’re expected to win that true pain sets in.
November 14th, 2023 at 8:59 am
Andy Reid had an OK but not great starting QB when he drafted Mahommes. What an idiot…
November 14th, 2023 at 9:03 am
Becky, you’re not the only girl on here, and you certainly aren’t dumb. This blog has a ton of whiners and not-fans. It and clicks attract the $$ads$$. Bucs better be ready for the refs. 49ers are NFL darlings.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:05 am
BTW, I was calling Reid and “idiot” sarcastically. Not you, Becky.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:40 am
Honestly, the 49ers might have the most complete team in the NFL. I thought it might be Phili, but SF looks more solid. Purdy had a string of subpar games which made me hopeful, but he seemingly turned it around on Sunday.
And Becky, you present a solid argument. I think Mayfield is an average NFL starter. He can produce in Tampa Bay as the Buc O Line is much better than last season (much better at pass protection, run blocking is still uneven) and he has an excellent WR1 and WR2. He’s producing as the surrounding cast is decent. I see him as a quality journeyman, which means if Licht sees a diamond in the rough at QB on Day 2 or 3, he should roll the dice.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:44 am
There was. We didn’t feel it as bad because either the Bucs were fully in draft mode or they were making a Super Bowl run. 🙂
November 14th, 2023 at 9:46 am
If a team is drafting a quarterback in the first round, they don’t care about “next year” they are caring about the next 10-15 years.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:52 pm
They should change the rules a team that wins the division with a losing record has to forfeit their playoff berth to another wild card pick. If there is not another team with a better record they they keep the playoff spot. If there is another team with a better record then the division winner gets an extra 2nd round pick. I can’t see a team with a losing record being rewarded with a playoff spot. Then the embarrassment of getting stomped in the first round.
November 14th, 2023 at 1:17 pm
How does this stupid math work? “his statgeek software gives the Bucs a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 26 percent chance of winning the division.”
The only team making the playoffs from our division will be the division winner, so how can the chance of making the playoffs be better or even different than winning the division?
November 14th, 2023 at 4:07 pm
Becky Says:
November 14th, 2023 at 7:47 am
I am what most commenters on here would call, just a dumb girl, but in my opinion,
__-
ladies are welcome here. We need their infusion of logic, less emotion and more testosterone to compensate for the pony tail bobbing screams and stamping feet of The Kyle cult as they cry
“play my guy we loves him. He will love us back if we console him after his four sacks per game”.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:27 pm
So Joe I read that and still don’t have a clue what your point was.
Stat geeks are important for… the gamblers, Goodell, Germany ?
Geez!
Go Bucs!