When Takeaways Evaporate
October 30th, 2023
Points > takeaways.
Long-time readers of JoeBucsFan.com know Joe winces and gets very frustrated upon hearing coaches place so much weight on takeaways.
For some defensive coaches, takeaways are the ultimate. Joe is of the mind playing sound, fundamental football and getting off the field on defense and scoring points on offense is the ultimate.
As Joe likes to say, punts are turnovers, too.
Takeaways are like roulette in Las Vegas. More often than not, good teams, specifically good quarterbacks, don’t turn the ball over. So if a team places so much emphasis on takeaways and they don’t come, what are you left with?
Ladies and gentlemen, Joe presents to you the 2023 Bucs.
Jenna Laine of ESPN notes that when the Bucs were 3-1, they racked up the wins in large part because of takeaways. But in the last three games, all losses, the Bucs have four takeaways and three were against the Dixie Chicks.
Again, Joe will point out the Bucs lost that game, despite the Bucs forcing three red zone turnovers!
Takeaways can mask subpar play or a subpar team. Sooner or later, when you face a good team, those takeaways are much harder to come by.
And what have the Bucs done against good teams? Well, they got slapped around by Philadelphia, lost a close game to Detroit and then lost to Buffalo on a razor-thin Hail Mary fail.
The Bucs are 0-3 against teams with winning records. But hey, they lead the league in takeaway margin (+8)! Too bad you can’t win titles using that as a benchmark.
Joe always remembered how former Bucs commander Greg Schiano preached takeaways and in 2013 the Bucs were really good at it with 31 takeaways, third in the NFL.
The Bucs that season finished 4-12 and Schiano was canned.
Lovie Smith, all that guy ever did was drill into people’s heads the importance of takeaways. He was arguably the worst coach the Bucs have ever had.
Play good football! Score points! Block and tackle! The takeaways may or may not come but the wins will.
Why is it that it seems defensive guys think takeaways are more important than points?
The Bucs are tied (with the Dixie Chicks and Desmond Ridder!) for fifth-worst in points per game at 17.3. Only the Steelers (who are now on a 55-game streak of not breaking 400 yards offense in a game), the Raiders, the Belicheats and the Giants are worse.
October 30th, 2023 at 1:47 pm
Lovie was bad – but he wasn’t Leeman Bennett bad…..
The 1986 Buccaneers defense was probably the worst defense that has ever stepped on an NFL field. And despite having Steve Young at QB and James Wilder at RB – the offense sucked out loud too….
October 30th, 2023 at 1:51 pm
Joe would argue Lovie was worse. The NFL Network documentary of Steve Young was pretty eye-opening how little to no coaching Young had with the Bucs.
The Tennessee-Ready game may have been one of the worst coaching disasters Joe has ever witnessed. Only one worse may have been Leftwich’s stunt in Pittsburgh last year. It’s a toss-up. But Leftwich was only the offensive coordinator.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:02 pm
I’ll take a defense that is good at 3 and outs . Pretty sure the team that leads in that category are a winning team. 3rd down wins on a defense should be priority number 1. Our D is great in the red zone why can’t we play that way when our D takes the field. What happened to defending every blade of grass. Not every blade of grass from the red zone.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:06 pm
So Joe, would that make you a Lovie hater?
October 30th, 2023 at 2:08 pm
It’s Monday. They’ve had a few extra days rest. They have a chance to beat Houston and be right in the mix.
Or sink further. If Mayfield wants a contract, he better start faster and finish better. If Canales playcalling sucks, audible. He also needs to stop being buddy buddy with these loser OL and call them out privately and tell them like it is.
They lose this week, it’s over. They win this week? Who knows.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:09 pm
Probably. Gee, imagine that, hating incompetence and losing.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:11 pm
This, and worrying about time of possession. Seems like Todd values TOP and takeaways over scoring points.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:16 pm
Joe looked it up. Surprisingly, some really bad teams have very good third down defenses.
Best barometer for good teams is touchdowns scored (imagine?). Only three of the top-10 teams in touchdowns scored have losing records.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:16 pm
To me the defense is not a worry. We should’ve won the Buffalo and Atlanta games and possibly that Lion’s game if only we had just a little more offense. Something is wrong, it’s taking our offense too long to mess. We got to star looking at the HC and position coaches
October 30th, 2023 at 2:18 pm
NFL teams winning the turnover battle are something like 80% winners. Limiting turnovers and forcing turnovers is a winning strategy because it often leads to the “more points” Joe seeks. Agree thought opposing turnovers can masks poor play
October 30th, 2023 at 2:21 pm
The defense has created take aways in every game but the pathetic offense with Baker still losing games. You can create all take overs you want and they still lose. Bench the garbage Baker and fire the toilet Bowl. Every 2021 -2023 draft picks somehow played against Trask. This Bucs organization stinks badly in drafting and developing qb’s.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:23 pm
Not with the Bucs! 🙂 The Bucs lead the NFL in turnovers difference yet are fifth-worst in scoring.
(Yes, Joe knows that you used the word “often.”)
It’s just interesting that the three guys the Bucs have had for head coaches since 2012, all three defensive guys, who preached takeaways (and got them) all had losing records.
It’s all about offense and it’s all about the quarterback.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:27 pm
Joe,
Question but I think you already answered Todd B. wouldn’t bench Baker without losing his job. I ask again to confirm;
What the F* is the upside of continuing to play Baker when you ranked third in NFC South the toilet bowl of NFL divisions with seven games in the season ?
October 30th, 2023 at 2:30 pm
Joe says;
It’s all about offense and it’s all about the quarterback”.
Great take Joe. Agreed.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:31 pm
Jimmy J – the defense is good in the red zone because it’s a smaller field so there are less blades of grass to defend.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:35 pm
Todd Bowles won’t get fired before the end of the season short of committing a felony. But Bowles benching a healthy Mayfield is basically him waving the white flag and resigning with the post-date of January 8, 2024. Bowles brought in Mayfield for a reason. He started him for a reason. If Bowles gives up on Mayfield, that’s Bowles’ writing his own termination letter.
It would be no less a death sentence than Dirk Koetter benching Jameis for Ryan Fitzpatrick, a purely desperate stunt.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:38 pm
will be glad whe bowls face evaporates from this site next year.
he’s the picture of losing
October 30th, 2023 at 2:39 pm
This coming from a guy who’s team’s leading intercepter, Dee Delaney sits on the bench, smh! Instead he keeps playing Neal, who keeps F-ing up, getting burnt. Zyon was also getting close in the take away department, but we paid big money to hands of stone Dean, and Davis. So if you want take aways coach, how about playing guys who might get a couple?
October 30th, 2023 at 2:39 pm
You have to look at it from Todd Bowles’ point of view. He doesn’t believe there is any upside to benching Mayfield.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:41 pm
DMW
October 30th, 2023 at 2:50 pm
Joe says;
“Todd Bowles won’t get fired before the end of the season short of committing a felony. But Bowles benching a healthy Mayfield is basically him waving the white flag and resigning with the post-date of January 8, 2024. Bowles brought in Mayfield for a reason. He started him for a reason. If Bowles gives up on Mayfield, that’s Bowles’ writing his own termination letter”.
Right on Joe, thanks for the clarification.
October 30th, 2023 at 2:55 pm
Bowles has a bizarre obsession with clock management, takeaways allow us to control the clock more but in no way has it equated to wins against contenders. Bowles entire focus is on his defense’s ranking. He knows even if he gets canned his safety net is going back to being a DC. His philosophy on game management from a defensive perspective simply doesn’t mesh with today’s game that favors offenses. We had these same conversations last year about having Brady go more uptempo because the offense was so stagnant. Bowles doesn’t like it because his defense gets exposed late in games and teams march down the field without any resistance.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:00 pm
Joe then Bowles has a low opinion of Trask, really low, because this isn’t working presently. I’ve made my opinion clear that I disagree with that assessment.
If Baker gets hurt and Bowles is forced to bring Trask in and Trask excels what will that say?
This was a cap reset year which should have been a rebuild. Bucs already had sold season tix on a two year bundle and they were playing with house money.
The only reason they didn’t run a young QB out there was because they didn’t fire Bowles and Bowles wants Baker. This is all on Bowles. While they most definitely do not fire HCs during the season, I don’t see them bringing Bowles back in 2024. They need a splash move to sell season tix with the bundle ending and it’s going to come in a coaching change – I’m thinking Jim Harbaugh.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:00 pm
You win games by scoring more points than the other team. Maybe, Todd should put more emphasis on scoring points, getting off the field on 3rd down and field position.
October 30th, 2023 at 3:02 pm
Bowles formula for winning is similar to Lovie Smith in that it’s completely outdated. His defense is just better.
The Bucs need a new coaching staff.
October 30th, 2023 at 5:47 pm
“Lovie Smith…was arguably the worst coach the Bucs have ever had.” Richard Willimson and Ray Perkins may take issue with that claim…
October 30th, 2023 at 6:00 pm
Bad strategy to rely on turnovers – especially when you run zone coverages 70% of the time
You are counting on a bad throws and lucky bounces rather than your athlete beating theirs
Todd is scared to play aggressively on both sides of the ball it is becoming very apparent. His conservative approach just doesn’t work consistently enough against talented teams. We couldn’t even beat Desmond Ridder who was horrible before us and got benched yesterday!!!!!’
The blitzkrieg reputation of his D is a thing of years gone by – his blitz scheme is pedestrian and minimally effective and the amount of off/zone coverage has reached historic highs for him
Todd is a scared, pensive, and error filled headcoach and we unfortunately are becoming his exact image as a team
October 30th, 2023 at 7:48 pm
This is a great article. Nice job, Joe. Turnovers are like icing on top of the cake.
October 31st, 2023 at 3:03 am
Turnovers are gonna happen. Its football. Fumbles are more about dumb luck than skill. INTs are something that we have at times been very good at in years past. In our first Super Bowl season it seemed like we could dial one up at critical times in games. We had the defensive HOFers to do it. We do not have that level of talent on this defense.
Sometimes I wish the “Peanut Punch” had never happened! I have seen our DBs and a particular LB standing around waiting for an opportunity to “punch” the ball rather than trying to tackle the player! Pathetic really.
All this to say I totally agree with you Joe! Lets force some punts! I have been on this one for weeks now. Get the defense off the field and give our offense the ball. As good as a turnover!
Go Bucs!
October 31st, 2023 at 7:38 pm
As for takeaways, forcing a 3 & out is literally a takeaway , it’s a turnover on Downs giving the ball back to our offense. And plenty of “takeaways” are simply unforced errors, blunders by the other team. The defenses that actually Force takeaways are usually the result of being really disruptive, and whether we rush 3 or 4 lineman, or send even 2 more blitzers we rarely get home, tip the pass, or affect the play at all. Plus we don’t maintain the edge on either side which has created long runs by running backs RBs and QBs. Bad coaching! you’re talking about takeaways!? Takeaways!? We have two dawgs on D – Antoine winfield, and Mr Buc Levante David who is ballin out and leading by example! Devin White went from disruptive to disappeared . As far as the offense, Canalis play calling is truly offensive! Plain vanilla no imagination or creativity, no adjustments either in game or at halftime. Our o-line is Swiss cheese, there’s a free runner in our backfield on almost every down. Plus the pre-snap penalties, and the holding calls are drivekillers. Just inexperience and bad coaching or lack of coaching. Plus the play calling is insulting! I agree with Mod hair Ken, if I were Baker I would audible out of almost every play Canales sends in, and draw some plays up in the dirt with input from Godwin and Evans, might have a chance. I haven’t seen the “Zone blocking” or any wise use of our talent at skill positions by our OC yet this entire year. Last year I thought Brady should have Audible out of almost every play left which sent in. what is there left to lose. On first down running off left or right guard against really Stout defenses is just pissing a down away. If that’s what bowls means by clock management then he’s part of the problem. I don’t believe there’s any QB in history that could succeed behind our online and play calling. We have a lot of talent & speed at the skill positions, just not using it effectively, and that’s 100%, the fault of the OC! And finally, Bakers Mobility and clutch throws while running for his life, coupled with some great Red Zone D are the only reasons we even have 3 wins. That’s not sustainable.