Relying Too Much On Turnovers
October 9th, 2023
Through yesterday’s NFL games, the Bucs rank second in the league in takeaways per game at 2 1/2. Only Buffalo is better.
Head coach Todd Bowles admitted recently that turnovers are very much out of a team’s control. They can practice, practice, practice forcing takeaways but that may not mean a darn thing.
“I’ve had years when we’ve worked on [forcing turnovers] and we didn’t get any,” Bowles told the Buccaneers Radio Network.
Trying to punch balls out has been an emphasis throughout 2023, says Bowles and many Bucs defensive players.
Antoine Winfield doing just that at the Saints’ 5 yard line last week was a perfect example of success, Bowles said. But Joe will note it was a bit of a one-play wonder after the Saints handed the ball off to a rarely-used fullback.
The Bucs forced only 20 turnovers last season after posting 29 in 2021. The team goal was to hit 30 last season and that’s the goal again for 2023.
Tampa Bay has 10 forced turnovers this season with 13 games remaining and that pace is probably unsustainable. Dallas led the NFL last season with 33.
The legendary 2002 Bucs team had 38 forced turnovers during that regular season; this year’s Bucs are on pace for 42 turnovers.
As Joe has written for years, forcing turnovers cannot be part of a winning strategy no matter how much coaches scream for them. Consistent play from all phases of the team is far more important.
The Bucs have eight forced turnovers in their three wins. They’ll no doubt have to win games this season without forcing any.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:36 pm
Better to have too many takeaways than too many giveaways. We have been there before with our human ATM machine.
Anything to get Baker started a little faster would be a help. The Lions aren’t going to wait around while the Bucs get going.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:40 pm
A strong pass rush will force interceptions……..and…..hands up…tipping passes helps also.
You can go for the ball instead of the tackle, but that can be costly.
My money is on Kancey & Ya Ya…..forcing some fumbles.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:49 pm
We need a better, more consistent pass rush from the front 4-5, so we don’t have to blitz. Strip sacks will come from a better pass rush, as will QB hurries and errant throws creating interceptions.
October 9th, 2023 at 1:58 pm
You don’t “force” turnovers-you take advantage of opportunities to get them and you take measures to prevent them- both strategies can be coached up.
There’s no disputing statistical evidence that turnover differential is a significant factor in wins and losses.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:04 pm
Looking forward to seeing Callijah healthy and what havoc he will wreak on the rather immobile Goff.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:12 pm
Take-a-ways usually help with field position. But, I’m just as happy with a 3 and out by our defense. Time of possession is a huge part of a winning strategy.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:14 pm
Imo, oustide of playing free within the defensive system thats in place, creating TO’s is a state of mind. Coaching technique on how to create turnovers that’s great, but there’s a specific mentality that most folks live by. They believe, without a shadow of a doubt, they will create a turnover. Even if it doesn’t happen every game, their belief never falters, and then they come in bunches.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:19 pm
Fumbles are hard to account for, but strip sacks are a thing, and Catching the ball when it hits you in the hands is also a thing. Bowles is putting these guys in a great position to be aggressive, and right now Winfield is bought in and reaping the benefit. I bet they hold serve as this pass rush gets going.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:30 pm
The Chicago Bears went to the Super Bowl with Rex Grossman at QB for following this same philosophy…
They lost the Super Bowl but I believe they proved a mediocre team with a solid defense can make it to the big dance if they win the turn-over battle every week.
October 9th, 2023 at 2:31 pm
Seems to be a bit of a difference between Bowles, and Chucky setting a goal, not just for turnovers, but for defensive scores!
October 9th, 2023 at 2:58 pm
Somewhere Lovie Smith is smiling…
October 9th, 2023 at 2:59 pm
This is a big big game for both teams. I’m hoping that we do NOT have a repeat of last years game coming off the bye week. That was a disaster in Cleveland and there is no way that should happen again.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:03 pm
Take away the highly unusual and unlike turnovers last week, the offense, again, puts up 17 points (vs a very good defense to be sure).
As the turnovers go away, the offense is going to need to do their part and actually score some points.
The good news is that the offense, while it has mostly played well, still has a ton of room to grow. If they’d stop wasting downs running the ball into stacked lines, they could use those downs to help score more points.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:09 pm
BucU Says:
October 9th, 2023 at 2:59 pm
This is a big big game for both teams.
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Detroit has beat KC and beat-up on Green Bay and their only loss was in overtime. This is hardly a big game for them, they don’t have anything to prove.
Meanwhile the Bucs opponents they beat this year are a combined 5-11, and they basically got blown out in their only game vs a quality opponent. Even if the Bucs don’t win, they need to at least look like they belong, which I think is doable.
But don’t overplay the significance of the game for the Lions, they already have the north wrapped up, and everyone knows they’re a good team. What people don’t know is what the Bucs are – just a product of a very weak opening schedule, or a legit playoff level team.
This game will mean a lot for the Bucs, but not much for the Lions.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:22 pm
Rod Munch Says:
October 9th, 2023 at 3:09 pm
What people don’t know is what the Bucs are – just a product of a very weak opening schedule, or a legit playoff level team.
^^^^^^^^
Rod: A very weak opening schedule? You had the Bucs losing most of those games, didn’t you? I remember you saying over and over that the Bucs would be a 5-12 team. Give the Bucs some credit, they won games that you thought they would lose, plain and simple.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:30 pm
The defense is the only reason Bucs are 3-1. Otherwise they would have lost to crappy teams also. Offense ranked 22 in NFL.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:37 pm
The other problem no one is mentioning is the refs. Detroit is a winning team after eons of losing. Hopefully, the Bucs will be watching out for the zebs, and ready for them.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:38 pm
Joe in Michigan – I said all summer that this team reminded me of all those Ray Perkins Bucs teams, you know, which got off to a hot start before collapsing… like in 1990 when they started out 3-1, then went 4-2, before finishing 6-10.
Anywho, when the Bucs finish the season in the playoffs, at that point you can mock me for being in the same camp as Vegas and the rest of the world and not having blind faith in the team. And I’ll take that verbal beating happily. But spiking the football at your own 23-yard line is really stupid. You might want to wait a bit before booking your SB hotel, not that you have to worry about that since hotels don’t take food stamps. HAHAHA.
In any case, I do honestly hope you end up being right. This game will go a long ways towards proving what the Bucs are.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:45 pm
Rod: The Bucs won 2 road games that in previous years they would’ve folded. So that’s a positive. Where in my post to you did I say anything about playoffs or Super Bowl? What I said was you should give the Bucs some credit for a 3-1 start. Is that hard for you to understand?
October 9th, 2023 at 3:46 pm
2023 Award for Really Ridiculous Statement,
By Joe Bucs Fan:
“As Joe has written for years, forcing turnovers cannot be part of a winning strategy no matter how much coaches scream for them. Consistent play from all phases of the team is far more important.
As Joe has written for many years, Joe proves he doesn’t know squat.
Ever notice, Joe, how those great defenses always get a lot of turnovers, and defenses that suck get few turnovers?
Only an idiot thinks that turnovers cannot be coached or that they don’t matter to great defenses. It’s a percentage game, like everything else in football. If your technique for producing turnovers, whether it be interceptions, forced fumbles or strip sacks, is good you’re going to get a lot more of them than if your technique sucks. That doesn’t mean the Bucs are going to get 2. 5 turnover every game, any more than having a particular yards per game in passing or rushing means that you’ll always produce that. But if you emphasize something, practice it, and are mentally prepared to deliver it, you’ll get it a lot more often than if you don’t.
The other side of the equations is of course turnovers by the offense. If the defense gets lots of turnovers, but the offense keeps giving it away, then the effect of a turnover ratio of 1 or less negates the defense’s turnovers.
Joe simply refuses to admit that he’s wrong and has been wrong for many years.
October 9th, 2023 at 3:56 pm
YOU KNOW YOU’RE HAVING SUCCESS WHEN …
Your fanbase complains the defense is creating too many turnovers.
A pessimistic take on a great stat? This may be the only site you’ll find those unique takes. We might instead celebrate the Bucs are 2nd best team at takeaways?
October 9th, 2023 at 3:59 pm
@SlyPirate maybe it’s recent past that has Joe concerned. The Bucs defense started fast last season with 8 of 9 in three games, if memory serves? And then only had 11 over the remaining 13 games.
October 9th, 2023 at 4:05 pm
“Relying too much on turnovers” sounds just as dumb as saying they are “relying too much on scoring points.”
October 9th, 2023 at 4:08 pm
Good defenses take the ball away from the other team one way or another. I believe that a good defense can rely on turnovers
October 9th, 2023 at 4:11 pm
A Bucs Fan Says:
You’re definitely right. One thing I’ve noticed is our fanbase never truly embraces winning. Decades of losing and disappointment have us in a constant state of PTSD. We always think another losing decade is about to begin. We’re constantly searching for signs. The issue is just this: We transform positives into negatives to fit our mental narrative which protects us from disappointment. Joe’s other article “Half Game Lead” does the exact same thing. Visit other teams and they would be over the moon with what the Bucs are doing. You’d think with a SB, 2xNFCS Championships, and NFCS Lead, we should be embracing the positive and looking forward to future success. Instead, we’re pessimistic. Inside the clubhouse, Licht has created a winning culture. Our players exude it. Our fans, especially legacy fans, can’t seem to drink the Kool-aid. They are stuck in the lost decade.
October 9th, 2023 at 4:17 pm
Can’t give em back nor should you whine when not getting any. Part of the game. It’s obviously a big emphasis on offense not to turn it over. This team wins or loses with the turnover battle. It’s how bowles wants to be built.
October 9th, 2023 at 4:23 pm
I hear you. Pessimism and cynicism abound in new and old Bucs fans alike given their cyclical history of having, what appear to be, glimpses of excellence with long sustained periods of losing in between. It’s like every 20 years the Bucs field a great team so you are correct. People are protecting themselves for the fall off.
I think losing the player who is considered the best of all time, regardless of how he or the team performed last year, exaggerated that as well…
Especially given NE misgivings since he left.
October 9th, 2023 at 5:16 pm
We appreciate the Bucs being in the Tampa Bay area even though the best days of the Bucs are clearly in the rear view window.for many fans.
October 9th, 2023 at 5:26 pm
It’s why Bowles units here are not really top units, they bend but don’t break and only stop good offenses if they make a mistake. To be a top defense you have to cause the mistakes and contest catches and disrupt an offense.
Bucs defense leaves receivers wide open too often for my liking in a passing league. I’m talking about uncontested catches where other top units are making offenses earn every yard our unit rarely does that.
It’s why I won’t be a believer in Bowles, unless his defense gets a bunch of turnovers they can’t consistently stop anyone even bad teams
October 9th, 2023 at 5:32 pm
This is one of those ‘glass half empty’ conundrums. Yes some takeaways are dumb luck (such as the punt returner let’s say who muffs the punt deep inside his own Red Zone & his opponent recovers the ball?). Bummer, but it happens. As the old saying went though, sometimes it better to be lucky than good.
More often though, takeaways aren’t luck at all; they’re the result of a great pass rush getting there at just the right moment to force an errant pass that results in a strip sack or an INT. Or the result of a great jarring tackle that leaves both the ball & the runner on the ground.
In the 3 games that we’ve won, Bucs have won the Turnover Battle in each of them handily (3-0, 2-0, 3-1). That’s 8 drives that were stopped dead in their tracks. Our defense scored 7 points off those & gave the ball back to our offense to let them try their hand at it. In the 1 game that we lost, Bucs tied 2-2 in the Turnover Battle, which IMO is what allowed us to stay in the game & keep it from turning into a much higher-scoring game (for Philly). If that’s what being lucky looks like, I’ll take it.
October 9th, 2023 at 5:45 pm
First Name Greatest … ‘It’s why Bowles units here are not really top units, they bend but don’t break and only stop good offenses if they make a mistake.’
Yes we do a lot of ‘bend but don’t break’ but the rest is kinda misleading IMO. The lion’s share of the Bucs’ salary CAP in 2019-2022 went to veterans on the offense. Bowles defense relied a bunch on younger players obtained in the draft, players who he developed to fit his system. Most of those years we didn’t have very good depth, and when starters went down Bowles had to adapt ‘his system’ to accommodate less experienced talent.
Overall he’s done a heck of a job with this defense, and restored our defense to a Top-10 performer for the most part. Injuries have played a huge part obviously (and that’s why depth is so important IMO), but injuries are part of Lady Luck’s impact also.
October 9th, 2023 at 5:58 pm
I’ve been over the moon when we won 2 preseason games. Even if they haven’t counted for anyone but me.
October 9th, 2023 at 6:26 pm
“As Joe has written for years, forcing turnovers cannot be part of a winning strategy no matter how much coaches scream for them. Consistent play from all phases of the team is far more important.”
Our defense is relying too much on our secondary to cover receivers for 5+ seconds because our sorry as pass rush can’t force quarterbacks to throw the ball earlier than intended or even chase them out the pocket. Our special teams punt coverage is swiss cheese and our offensive line can’t run block for $h#! Once Todd Bowles fixes those issues all phases of our team will be complete.
October 9th, 2023 at 7:25 pm
Just a heads up to everyone Calijah Kancey practiced today!
October 9th, 2023 at 7:57 pm
Some of the more recent comments surprise me.
I mean, if you believed both First Name Greatness and Jack Clark, the Bucs defense left guys wide open too much and we have a sorry as pass rush.
Then how is:
1. Our completion percentage 13th best.
2. Our Passer rating 5th best.
3. Our TO percentage 2nd best.
4. 2nd lowest amount of 1st down per games.
and 6th lowest points per game.
October 9th, 2023 at 8:14 pm
geno711 Says:
October 9th, 2023 at 7:57 pm
Then how is:
1. Our completion percentage 13th best.
2. Our Passer rating 5th best.
3. Our TO percentage 2nd best.
4. 2nd lowest amount of 1st down per games.
and 6th lowest points per game.
Our allowed completion percentage is 13th best because our secondary is that good, look how much we’re paying our cornerbacks, plus don’t forget we played against the worst quarterbacks in the NFL (Bears, Saints, and Vikings) and our turnovers did not come our pass rushers forcing the quarterback to fumble. Do you have anymore arguments?
October 9th, 2023 at 8:19 pm
Our offense is average so far at best. Until the offense picks it up let’s keep the take aways coming. Otherwise we wouldn’t be whare we are.
October 9th, 2023 at 8:52 pm
I hope the Bucs can ‘eat a W’ against this formidable lions team.
But if they don’t, it’s not the end of the world as this season is very long, and a good team wants to peak at the right time if possible imo. Go bucs
October 9th, 2023 at 8:55 pm
Cant wait to see double V and kancey fire it up for a game. Should be a spectacle.
October 9th, 2023 at 9:32 pm
Rod still shell shocked from 1990 lol get over it bro, this ain’t that team smh
October 9th, 2023 at 9:42 pm
“like in 1990 when they started out 3-1, then went 4-2, before finishing 6-10.” WHY would you be so dumb to compare 1990 to this year’s team . How many superbowl Champions did that 1990 team have? Did that team spend to the cap (ohhhh wait, no salary cap and we had the crap of all crap owners who wouldn’t spend a dime). Stop reaching Bro this is a bad comparison.
October 9th, 2023 at 11:25 pm
hey…
what if we’re a good football team…
with a really good defense…
with ball hawking savages creating turnovers…
what if that is the case joe…
what if we just get better as the season goes along…
and all the detractors and pundits have to keep eating their words…
what if……….
October 9th, 2023 at 11:37 pm
Pass rush creates sack/fumbles and hurried throws (interceptions). Gang tackling gets multiple guys around the ball, while one holds the ball carrier, the others go after the ball and are there to recover. This is how you force turnovers.
October 10th, 2023 at 12:03 am
Jack Clark smoking crack saying the worst QBs in the NFL.
Kirk Cousins 38,000 yds 265 TDs 109 INTs.
7 4,000 seasons. 1500 yds already this year.
Derek Carr 36,000 yds 221 TDs 101 INTs
Justin Fields way less playing time but over the past 2 games has averaged 308 yds per game and 4 TDs.
Dude you gotta stop. Bucs shut 2 of these guys down and Cousins threw for a lot but Jefferson didn’t score.
You are starting to sound like NE Fan who after a 1-3 start for his beloved Patriots and a 34-0 beatdown by the team we smoked is gone.
You act like we are saying we are going to the SB and literally NOBODY has said that.
There is a lot to like about this team and we TRUE fans are pumped.
Who is ACTUALLY your team, or are you just a penis?
October 10th, 2023 at 1:36 am
LOL
If we get 38 TOs this year we are SB bound for sure. And somebody is gonna be sporting a new gold jacket at some point in the future.
Go Bucs
October 10th, 2023 at 1:48 am
The past is no predictor of the future.
October 10th, 2023 at 8:30 am
BillyBucco Says:
October 10th, 2023 at 12:03 am
There is a lot to like about this team and we TRUE fans are pumped.
Who is ACTUALLY your team, or are you just a penis?
———————————-
Those last 6 words….OUCH! +27! 🙂
October 10th, 2023 at 8:45 am
Jack Clark.
I do not mind you saying that our corners are good or very solid.
Our pass rush could be better but is not crap either. I do not know what 4 games you watched by our pressures were partially responsible for most of our interceptions. We would not have 8 interceptions with no pressures.
The Winston interception at the end of the Saints game was a 4 man rush, we were in Winston’s face when he threw the ball.
The Devin White interception was a 5-man rush. Both JTS and Barrett lined up on the right side and JTS was in Hurts face when he threw.
Overall, what I see is that Bowles has 4 men rushing the passer about 2/3 of the time and 5 men rushing the passer about 1/3 of the time.
Seems like a pretty good overall strategy to me. It puts not a ton of extra pressure on our corners.
Not shockingly, we get to the QB more with a 5-man rush. I don’t recall any all-out blitzes this year.
But hey, I like my observations more than yours. Just saying.
October 10th, 2023 at 11:03 am
geno711 Says:
October 10th, 2023 at 8:45 am
But hey, I like my observations more than yours. Just saying.
Your observations do not conflict with any of mine
October 10th, 2023 at 11:11 am
BillyBucco Says:
October 10th, 2023 at 12:03 am
Kirk Cousins 38,000 yds 265 TDs 109 INTs.
7 4,000 seasons. 1500 yds already this year.
Derek Carr 36,000 yds 221 TDs 101 INTs
Justin Fields way less playing time but over the past 2 games has averaged 308 yds per game and 4 TDs.
Even Joe wrote a post about how Kirk Cousins is 3-6 on opening day games, plus Derek Carr and Justin Fields were ranked 22 (week 5) and 31 (week 4) respectively among all starting quarterbacks this year according to the official NFL website, so they’re trash. Do you have any more arguments? Or do you just like to throw ad hominem attacks when your feelings get hurt?
October 10th, 2023 at 12:04 pm
Hey Dewey,l “Somewhere Lovie Smith is smiling…” Maybe in his Basement and he is again planing his next great Team plan.. $miling indeed