More Bottom-Feeder Predictions
September 5th, 2023
Former Bucs QB and current NBC analyst Chris Simms.
If coaching matters so much, then Joe wonders why Saints head coach Dennis Allen keeps having his team picked to win the NFC South.
The man has a 15-38 record without a good season to his resume.
But so it goes, as prediction season is now in full swing.
The esteemed and knowledgable ProFootballTalk.com duo of Mike Florio and former Bucs QB Chris Simms weighed in today with their NFC South picks.
They embarked on this exercise trying to select the 2023 last-place finisher first.
Florio called it a very difficult task because all NFC South teams can win the division. Still, he put the Bucs in fourth place citing a “sense of transition” as part of the reason.
Simms pointed at the offensive line and a new offensive system and coordinator, and his opinion that Mike Evans’ game faded slightly last season and too many questions at edge rush. Simms called the Bucs to finish in third place for the season.
Florio chose Allen’s slimy Saints to win the division and Simms took the Falcons led by Arthur Smith (14-20 as a head coach).
September 5th, 2023 at 4:22 pm
Jose, you are correct. There is simply no good reason to pick any of these teams to win. Given that history is the best predictor of the future, I am going with the Bucs at 9-8. Panthers will be last with maybe 3 wins and the other two teams will be around 7-8 wins total.
September 5th, 2023 at 4:26 pm
Prickly Pete Priscoe of CBS has Bucs #20 in Week 1 Power Rankings, right where they should be until they prove they are better (or worse). Looking forward to the Baker Baker Touchdown Maker era beginning. I think an upset road win Sunday is a very likely outcome! Let’s go boys, get it done!
September 5th, 2023 at 4:28 pm
I generally like Simms and respect his analysis, but he’s off base on saying Mike faded last year, and if the Bucs can get at least decent QB play I have the feeling he’s going to have a monster season. Evans is always at his best when he plays angry, and he’s been worked into a shoot by his agent, meaning he should be angry. Of course having a garbage QB could hold him back, but if Evans can have a big year with Glennon and McCown …
Speaking of which, is Mayfield actually a step up from Glennon and McCown? The stats say no.
In 2014, Glennon, who went 1-4, had a QBR of 49.7.
In 2014, McCown, who went 1-10, had a QBR of 34.6.
In 2021, Mayfield, who somehow went 6-8, had a QBR of 35.1.
In 2022, Mayfield, who went 2-8, had a QBR of 24.5.
Remember, 50, is average. 24.5 was, by far, the worst in the league. And over 21-22, Mayfield was the worst QB in the NFL.
QBR, again, isn’t the old QB rating system, it actually takes into account things like down and distance. So, lets say you’re a Checkdown Charlie, and on 3rd and 6, you throw 2 yard passes to your RB – in the old QB rating system, you get a checkmark for making a completion. With QBR, however, you’re dinged for not even attempting to get the 1st down on the play. Also, say you throw a hail mary before the half and it’s an INT, in the old QB rating system, it’s the same as if you threw an INT on any other play – and QBR takes into account the down/distance/situation, etc.
In other words, the Mayfield of the last two seasons is a notable step down from the play we saw from the QBs in 2014, which lead to the Bucs picking #1 in 2015.
September 5th, 2023 at 4:28 pm
I generally like Simms and respect his analysis, but he’s off base on saying Mike faded last year, and if the Bucs can get at least decent QB play I have the feeling he’s going to have a monster season. Evans is always at his best when he plays angry, and he’s been worked into a shoot by his agent, meaning he should be angry. Of course having a garbage QB could hold him back, but if Evans can have a big year with Glennon and McCown …
Speaking of which, is Mayfield actually a step up from Glennon and McCown? The stats say no.
In 2014, Glennon, who went 1-4, had a QB R of 49.7.
In 2014, McCown, who went 1-10, had a QB R of 34.6.
In 2021, Mayfield, who somehow went 6-8, had a QB R of 35.1.
In 2022, Mayfield, who went 2-8, had a QB R of 24.5.
September 5th, 2023 at 4:34 pm
Esteemed duo is code for PFT cites JBF early and often…as they should. Simms and his Left of Lenin colleague Peter King hate the Bucs equally…perhaps for very different reasons.
September 5th, 2023 at 4:38 pm
Right now every team is undefeated and tied for first with every other team, any other prognostication is just a swag, ( scientific wild azz guess).
September 5th, 2023 at 4:50 pm
Why would the owners in this division care? They are guaranteed money from the success from other teams.
Losers.
September 5th, 2023 at 4:52 pm
That’s my point Joe. Dennis Allen H coaching record is not much better then Bowles if not about the same, I am not sure, I will look it up. Author Smith has been in Atlanta a couple of seasons and still seems to be mediocre. Didn’t the HC of the Panthers just get fired last year for having a mediocre record in Indy? Come on man. I say Bucs win the division with a 10-7 record.
September 5th, 2023 at 4:57 pm
JD Still – you mean tied for last.
September 5th, 2023 at 5:04 pm
It’s all about the o line
We’ll see..could go either way.:
September 5th, 2023 at 5:37 pm
In 18 weeks, the answers will be in. King knows nothing. Simms was a failed QB and was most known for a cloud of smoke poring out of his car. Florio is an attorney and Left of a left of Lenin.
September 5th, 2023 at 5:46 pm
What MG said– throughout the losing Culverhouse years with rookies and second year men comprising every roster, we were the most profitable team in the league
September 5th, 2023 at 5:47 pm
The Panthers have given up on this season to try and find the key to winding up a franchise QB.
The Falcons are trying to see if a set of jumper cables can make last years backup pick into a starter.
The Saints sold out trying to find a machine that isn’t a turnover master, and ended up in the middle of the pack just like their new old QB.
The Bucs are trying to remake themselves after TB14. They may have invested in a OC that can baste the turkey of an offense from last season with some special sauce. It looked tasty, but then the HC/DC stuck his foot into it and named Baker to roll with it.
Baker.s first preseason game looked awful until a miracle caused a TD. He had gone backwards for three series before that.
If Trask relearns his long ball the Bucs might be the top NASCAR division r=team, but Baker is all flash, in my eyes, so I will settle for second because the team is untested right now. Too many questions.
September 5th, 2023 at 6:01 pm
@ Craig and Captain Munch: Honestly, what’s wrong with you guys? I’d call you sadists, but that would give sadism a bad name. I can’t believe your hatred for Mayfield and your overall disdain for the Bucs. You’re the worst kind of fans.
September 5th, 2023 at 6:04 pm
@Rod Munch,
JD might say that it depends on which glass he has on him that day and how full it is or ain’t.
September 5th, 2023 at 6:35 pm
Craig … I like the way you think, but have no fear about Baker Mayfield. If he does good, the Bucs will be good. If he does poorly, Bowles & Canales will turn to Trask in a flash (going 1-3 in our first 4 games MIGHT do it).
What have they got to lose by switching QBs if Mayfield isn’t performing as they expected him to? Baker went 1-3 to start off last year with the Panthers, then got pulled in Game 5 for PJ Walker who went on to start the next 3 games (going 1-2) before he was pulled in the next one for … yup, Baker Mayfield. Baker did start 1 more game with Carolina (losing that one) before he got traded to the Rams.
Point being: Bucs will play it just like the Panthers did … short leash because he hasn’t earned a long leash yet. Of course Kyle Trask will have a short leash also. If he stumbles, Wolford’s waiting.
September 5th, 2023 at 6:38 pm
Hand picking the seasons you want to make your argument?
Glennon QBR:
2017: 25.1
2019: 25.2
2021: 14.7
Mayfield QBR:
2018: 51.2
2019: 54.4
2020: 65.5
So his QBR was at least twice that of Glennon’s.
See how that works when you just use what you want? He’s like some little kid trying to perform a sleight of hand trick. You just have to act like you don’t see what he’s doing. 😂
September 5th, 2023 at 6:40 pm
Dude is still pi$$ed he gave his spleen to the franchise and Chucky tossed him aside.
September 5th, 2023 at 6:53 pm
Tommy Maddox had one year that was better than one of Baker’s years, too. Is he still available?
September 5th, 2023 at 7:12 pm
Don’t tell me it’s raining – Dummy, I was talking in reference to Mike Evans and what was the worst QBs he played with, and the fact he still go over 1000 yards and double digit TDs with two bad QBs. Those two, however, were still (combined) better than Mayfield has been the last two years.
Wow, how do you read that in context and not understand the point. Your IQ must be in the low single digits.
September 5th, 2023 at 7:16 pm
Predictions such as these are like opinions — everyone has one
September 5th, 2023 at 7:21 pm
WyomingJoe – My hatred of Mayfield is based on his stats, and watching his alleged highlights. You saying, no, the stats and tape is lying, and being on 4 teams in a year is a good thing, is not a winning argument.
With as much as I’ve bashed Mayfield, again, after watching his play, I’ve also said if he leads this team to the playoffs, and plays well, then feel free to throw it back in my face – and I’ll happily take the abuse since I don’t want to sit through a garbage season that also isn’t a rebuild year.
But what in the world would make anyone be optimistic about Mayfield unless you’re just a fanboi of his? The guy is not a good NFL QB, and I don’t personally care what he did in college. He rode the NFL’s best running game, and a top 3 offensive line, to the playoffs once when he wasn’t asked to do anything. Again, that doesn’t make me think he was Steve Young with the Bucs the last two years, and given a chance, he’s a SB champ.
Again, if I’m wrong, bash me all you want for not believing.
But when I’m right, are you going to take your verbal beatdown? Or just cry and blame the system/team/coach/city/fans/etc for why you were wrong?
September 5th, 2023 at 7:21 pm
Bucs Guy – Dang, that’s amazing, did you come up with that quote?
September 5th, 2023 at 7:46 pm
Expert analysis in my opinion
September 5th, 2023 at 8:20 pm
It’ll be a race to see who’s seat is hotter by the end of the season. Dennis Allen or Todd Bowles.
Allen is a horrible coach, and losing this weak division with a supposed franchise QB in Derek Carr will probably be too much to overcome. On the flipside, the Bucs have zero national buzz, so Bowles losing won’t even register on the NFL Richter Scale.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:20 pm
Does anyone really care what Chris simms thinks about anything? He was a mediocre college qb, bad lro qb and gives analysis like he is the second coming of YA Tittle. I would put more stock into what Jim McMahons kid has ro say over Phil’s kid. Btw- I love how the nfl and the networks like to flaunt their wokeness….yet the ultra privileged no talent sons of former players Like Phil’s kid and Chris Collins worth get cushy gigs thrown at them.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:34 pm
Simms has to ex spleen his reasoning better. Florio says the Bucs are in transition, but leaves out the fact that Carolina is starting a rookie QB, and new loser head coach. That’s a team that’s in transition.
September 5th, 2023 at 8:53 pm
@Wyoming Joe- I am not against Baker, I am against how he has played of late. I truly hope he can make a new start here and play up to his potential.
The problem is that he had that chance last season with the Panthers and blew it. He got replaced by Sam freaking Darnold and the team played better.
That is what I am against. I really do hope this new and untried OC can let him see himself become the QB he can be. I do fear that if he does, he will think he is capable of getting a huge payoff for it.
If he does get it, fine, if he continues to play at his best, but Cleveland thought that and he got traded and their new guy was on a possible lifetiime suspension.
September 5th, 2023 at 9:30 pm
I think it is so hypocritical that these Talking Heads are choosing us to finish last in the division because of our quarterback. Are they saying that Desmond Ridder is better than Baker Mayfield? If there’s anyone in the division that he’s better than, is Desmond Ritter. Are they saying that rookie Bryce young is better than Mayfield? I can’t wait for the Bucs to prove the all wrong
September 5th, 2023 at 9:30 pm
Rod: I saw your posts. It’s damn near impossible not to when almost every other post here is yours. And most are you bashing Baker because you’re butt hurt over Trask and your gators. And you said, “Speaking of which, is Mayfield actually a step up from Glennon and McCown? The stats say no.” Then you proceeded hand pick the years you wanted to use to make Baker look worse than Glennon. You’re not fooling anyone. Everyone here knows you’re a sad little guy who didn’t get his way, so you come here every day and throw a little hissy fit. And do you really think one person in the Bucs organization gives a rats a$$ about what you think? Sadly you probably think the Glazer’s have someone scouring JBF daily, just to gain your priceless insight into everything football. Maybe after they fire Bowles, they’ll hire you as HC and you and Kyle can float off into the sunset on your inflatable gator.
September 5th, 2023 at 11:21 pm
“Joe wonders why Saints head coach Dennis Allen keeps having his team picked to win the NFC South.” – Joe
Because having a decent QB is all a coach needs to look great.
We do not have that. Carr is the only QB that has the skills and talent to be good.
I also think the Saints will win the division this year…and possibly the next couple years.
Unless one of the young QBs surprises. (and no, I do not mean Mayfield)
The way I see it…Baker Mayfield has no chance in hades if being our franchise QB…or even a winning QB this year. Trask? Longshot but maybe.
And if we end up with the first pick and get our pick of the top guys next year…it will take a couple years (at least) to get them settled in. While playoffs are possible with a rookie QB, it’s unlikely. Don’t believe me…which rookie do you think will make the playoffs this year out of how many?
September 5th, 2023 at 11:23 pm
@Don’t tell me it’s raining
I consider Baker Mayfield more of a…Ryan Leaf quality player.
Not a Gator fan (not a college fan) but I want Trask starting so we can develop him…either as a starter or a future longterm backup.
Because your Mayfield guy? He outright sucks.
September 5th, 2023 at 11:25 pm
@ATLBuc
Bryce Young might be better than Mayfield…or he could be a total bust…like Mayfield. Saying Mayfield is better than anyone is a stretch at this point.
September 6th, 2023 at 12:45 am
Buccaneer Bonzai: You might want Trask to start because of your bromance for him but your guy, Trask, he’s not. He’s going to be wearing the headset just like he’s done the last two years. So you can say Baker is bad but the truth is Trask wasn’t good enough to beat him out. And Baker will still be QB1, regardless of your opinion. So gator fan or not it still chaps your a$$ that he couldn’t beat Baker.
September 6th, 2023 at 12:53 am
Yet more from Simms Joe.
Geez.
My Grandma says we win 12 games this year… I’ll go with Grandma.
Soo tired of all these so called experts making a living spewing total BS!
Go Bucs!
September 6th, 2023 at 1:15 am
y’all are seeming to forget…
tom brady and mike evans were never really on the same page…
and it showed in mike’s stats…
tom knew the only way to keep mike calm and chill with the issue was to at least give him the final solution…the touchdown catches…
that’s what kept those 2 together and chill…
otherwise i recall them never really on the same page
September 6th, 2023 at 1:16 am
i think mike has the potential to have a bigger year than he has had lately…
as i said before, he had some monster years with jameis
September 6th, 2023 at 1:18 am
garro –
take tens wins and be uber happy…
yes 10 wins……………………………………………………….max
September 6th, 2023 at 1:20 am
also tom was pretty much done with risky throws and 50/50 balls after gronk re-retired…
seemed like he only trusted gronk with those throws in tampa
September 6th, 2023 at 7:05 am
I think Mayfield is going to shine Sunday. He’s done everything asked of him since day 1. He’s matured first and foremost and I think it’s going to show.
If it doesn’t go well I’ll get on here Sunday evening and admit I got it wrong. T – 4.5 days and counting…
September 6th, 2023 at 12:39 pm
Don’t tell me it’s raining – hey moron, I was literally bashing the hell out of the Florida fanbois all summer. Maybe learn a thing or two about a thing or two before you bore people with your idiotic opinion.
God bless.
September 6th, 2023 at 1:53 pm
Rod Munch: I see you here every day bashing Mayfield. You post more comments than any other 10 people combined. Just look at the open game thread. You make half of the comments by yourself. And there could be an article about a charity for special needs kids and your dumba$$ would still bash Mayfield. You’re a Trask fanboi who’s butt hurt about The Bucs picking Mayfield over him. The Bucs organization picked him, not some wanna be football gurus posting comments on JBF. You’re one of those cats who think because you run you fantasy football team, that you could run a NFL organization. The sad part is there’s some guys on here who who post interesting comments and opinions about The Bucs and people like me like reading their perspective. But guys like you and your fanboi club add nothing to the discussion but the same ole “Trask was cheated, cheated I tell you”! If you’re some little kid then I get it. But if you’re a grown a$$ man, then act like one and stop crying because you didn’t get your way.