Baker Mayfield, The Bucs Offense And Mike Evans’ NFL Record
September 3rd, 2023
Outlook for yards.
This season may be a crossroads in several ways for Bucs stud receiver Mike Evans.
Yes, Evans’ agent lashed out last week with accusations and demands. Let’s put that aside for a brief moment, shall we?
One reason Evans has an NFL record of nine straight seasons of 1,000 yards to begin a career is the offenses he played in.
Both Dirk Koetter and then Bucco Bruce Arians believed in throwing deep and throwing deep often. Mr. Entertainment, Jameis Winston, may have been the perfect deep-ball gunslinger. He didn’t have to be prodded to go deep. If anything, he needed to be lassoed to ease up. LOL
Tom Brady proved that old men can still sling the ball.
Who was a big beneficiary of this Koetter/Arians throw deep and throw often concept? Evans. Raymond Summerlin of Sharp Football Analysis documents how.
39.1% of Mike Evans’ career targets have come at least 15 yards downfield.
That is a huge chunk of opportunities. Nearly 40 percent! No wonder Evans had 1,000 yards every season he’s been in the NFL.
But here comes a possible bump in the road. With Bucs’ new offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ offense from the Seahawks, it’s much more of a lateral, run-based scheme than Koetter’s or Arians’. However, Seattle’s Geno Smith led the NFL in throwing deep last season, per the PFF Tribe, and they’re usually good at counting yards.
But then there is this little nugget from Summerlin:
Over the last two seasons, Mayfield has been inaccurate on 31.2% of his attempts that travel at least 15 yards.
Unless Canales can resurrect Mayfield, the biggest drama come December might be how or if Evans can stretch his 1,000-yard season streak to 10 straight seasons.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:11 am
Canales did not run the Seattle O. He has NO history of plays that warrant calculating yards per catch. Bowles will dictate how this O runs and we have a pretty good idea how that’s going to go. Evan’s is no idiot. If he plays out his contract and his production is low due to QB and or play calling, he’s toast next season. Hold out get close to what you want of fund it elsewhere!!! Someone is ALWAYS willing to pay.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:12 am
So….who is getting dealt first. Evans, White or both at same time? Poll time?
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:18 am
“People can come up with statistics to prove anything…14% of all people know that.” H. Simpson
If an OC is a resurector….conversely an OC can be a destructor. Mayfield can throw the long ball with the best of them. With this oc and reciever corps he will but up big numbers
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:21 am
Why no pod Cast in 10 days . No prediction show this year ??? Wish u guys did the pod on YouTube a few days a week
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:23 am
Summerlin … ‘Over the last two seasons, Mayfield has been inaccurate on 31.2% of his attempts that travel at least 15 yards.’
Hard to know what to do with a stat like that Joe without knowing what percentage of inaccurate throws OTHER QBs had on attempts that traveled at least 15 yards. IOW, is 31.2% good, bad, average?
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:23 am
1. Keep Evans.
2. Trade 6’00” Mayfield.
3. Go with Trask and Wolford.
4. At season’s end we will know if we need to draft a quarterback.
5. This is not rocket science.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:27 am
NE Fan … ‘Bowles will dictate how this O runs and we have a pretty good idea how that’s going to go.’
And you know that how NE Fan? Last season the Bucs ran on only 33% of their plays, the LOWEST IN THE NFL. Did Bowles dictate THEN for BL to run the ball less than every other team in the NFL?
Over his 5 years as a HC, Todd Bowles has averaged running the ball on 40.3% of the offensive plays. So is THAT what your ‘pretty good idea’ tells you will happen this season?
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:43 am
DR, spin it anyway you like, there is a difference of trying to run the ball and continually failing and being forced to pass which was the scenario last season, as for his time as HC for the Jets I have no interest to research if that was also the case but I would imagine it was. You of ALL people are the proponent of a balanced attack as am I. Your numbers do not show balance which tells me he is failing. Your up!
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:45 am
Stop feeding the trolls.
Mayfield was elite (by numbers) in deep ball accuracy before the shoulder injury and being put in McAdoo’s offense forced lateral screens and traded away Chosen Anderson and CAR only deep ball threat.
Evans likely knows that TB might not re-up Mayfield if he wants too much money and he’s not sticking around for the other QB on the roster or for a rookie.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:47 am
So Mayfield was accurate on nearly 70% of his throws of at least 15 yards? Doesn’t sound bad to me. Context please.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:47 am
Bowles’ team is falling apart because of Bowles….
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:47 am
Watch More nailed it
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:53 am
Lol.
Do you think we’d be hearing about or having any of this silly drama if BA was still the Captain of the ship? Ofc not.
He’d figure out a way to make everything work one way or another.
Bowles is in over his head by the looks of it.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:59 am
And let’s gain a little perspective here.
Evans only needs 59 yards per game to go over 1000 yards in a 17-game season.
So, the premise of this entire article is offbase.
59 yards per game does not require much of an offense or QB at all to achieve. Evans needs to stay healthy and be available and he should get 1000 yards easily. And should realistically have way more than that. 1500 yards minimum should be his goal.
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:59 am
DR, my last question, 2019, 20, 21 BL was the OC. All 3 yrs the Bucs had very potent aggressive offenses. Many contribute this to BA’s influence. If that is the case don’t you think by osmosis he would mirror the majority of his learning from BA? To think Bowels had no influence in the O is completely ignorant. As far as Mayfield and his arm? He didn’t look so great in LA either, maybe it has something to do with a prior injury I don’t know but that really doesn’t matter. I am a fan of many of the Bucs players including Evan’s and would love to see them succeed but Vegas knows more than most of us do and the Pat’s are also proving they could be a shat show this season
The over under on this is same as Bucs 6.5. In their defense their schedule is brutal.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:02 am
NE FAN you of all people should know that the Bucs were not FORCED to pass.
Aren’t you surrounded by Tom Brady posters and lotion right now?
We wanted him to throw the ball.
With Baker we want him to not throw interceptions.
Big difference
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:11 am
TB posters and lotion – LOL!
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:17 am
ME stays healthy he gets to 1K PERIOD. ME is open on every play , because even if he is covered, he is open. A 50-50 ball for most WR’s is 85-15 in favor of ME.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:17 am
Billy, you’re not far off. I had been privileged of being a season ticket holder watching this guy for 23 years, most on this site only 3. When you realize that he will no longer suit up it becomes very surreal. This is common amongst NE fans. 20 years of winning with TB12 and now forced to watch cry baby Mac Jones is tough to swallow. You’re about to experience a small taste of it when Mayfield takes the field. Other than possibly Evan’s, Julio Jones (last legs), Brady had played with only on HOF WR, Randy Moss. Gronk will go in and possibly Edleman and Brady’s influence was a major reason for their success.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:25 am
I despise Antonio Brown , but a case can easily be made for his inclusion in the HOF.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:39 am
Evans just needs to avg 58 yards per game to get to 1,000. Gary Huff could get that done.
September 3rd, 2023 at 11:59 am
I don’t see the problem, Mike’s ability to use his body position and huge wing span could easily transition to a high volume “possession “ type receiver. What Mike will never be is a YAC guy.
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:01 pm
Browns are different from the panthers and rams. Just like the offenses were different under dirk and BA. So now we’re saying Mike Evans is one dimensional?
After this the PFF tribe has no credibility whatsoever. You bring up stats over the last two years after moving to taking panthers and weapon less rams. How about the dude has played in the NFL 5 years now!!! There’s a reason they didn’t bring up Winston accuracy. It’s not Mike Evans fault he gets open downfield easily, besides that’s just his body type
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:05 pm
So now we’re speculating about what the offense will look like after 3 meaningless (your words) preseason games? But we won’t speculate about what role ownership is playing in this needless episode? Seattle had no problem getting DK the ball for 1k. Seems to me you’re (still) making more excuses for ownership.
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:29 pm
NE Fan … ‘To think Bowels had no influence in the O is completely ignorant.’
Been called a lot of things in my life, but ignorant has never been one of them (well not to my face), much less COMPLETELY ignorant. I’m devastated. Just for clarification for future reference though, is that descriptor COMPLETELY to differentiate me from others who are only PARTIALLY ignorant?
Bowles lost a LOT of quality veterans in 2022 who had made the 2020 & 2021 teams as successful as they were. You know, guys like Gronk, Brown, Marpet, Cappa just on the offensive side. (Turns out THAT level of talent is extremely expensive apparently). Throw in some devastating injuries to Jensen (17 games lost), Donnie Smith (4 games lost), Wirfs (4 games lost) just on the OLine and that’s a lot to deal with. Even the great Tom Brady couldn’t make it work. It’s clear to just about everyone that BL was in way over his head under those conditions, and especially without BA’s Red Pen to help him.
So exactly what ‘influence’ do you believe that Bowles exerted on Lefty regarding the Bucs’ offense that caused it to be so unproductive last year? Did he tell Lefty to run more? (they ran less). Did he tell him to stop throwing it deep so often? (the OLine’s inability to pass protect for Brady made sure our receivers didn’t have time to get clear on the deep routes). Did Bowles tell Lefty to have Brady keep throwing very short passes? (Got a hunch that Brady thought up that one all by himself as he was about to get sacked on every other play). Specifics please NE Fan.
And oh BTW, I am very much an advocate for a balanced attack, but probably not in the way you’re using the term. The primary goal IMO of a balanced attack is to keep the opposing team’s defense guessing (obviously necessitating being ‘unpredictable’ to a degree at least) such that you can find their weaknesses and exploit them. Some games that may mean 30% runs/70% passes. Other games 50-50 and still others more runs than passes. Create mismatches & exploit weaknesses. (And yes, that’s exactly what BL never seemed to be able to do).
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:49 pm
Troll much?
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:50 pm
TBBF … ‘Bowles’ team is falling apart because of Bowles’.
You surprised me TBBF. How is it ‘falling apart’, even before we’ve played Game 1? Because Mike Evans wants more money? (Tend to think that’s got a LOT more to do with Licht than Bowles because of our salary CAP issues).
Or maybe because Devin White was appalled by $11 mil chump change this year instead of being rewarded for his greatness with a shiny new $20 mil contract? (I think we’ve heard that Bowles was the one who talked him down from the ledge).
Or maybe because Gage got re-injured & is now on IR? (Yup, Bowles fault; who would’ve ever expected Russell Gage to get hurt?).
Maybe Jensen going onto IR too? (It was Hall who ran him over last year, so obviously it was Bowles’ fault because JL drafted Hall; that one I get).
Todd Bowles is hardly the perfect HC, but he is a very good DC. We celebrate BA for bringing us a Super Bowl championship, yet without Bowles as HIS DC most of us I think would agree that we wouldn’t have won that SB. Not to mention the incredible talent that JL imported in 2020 (like Brady, Gronk, Brown, Fournette, etc) and retained in 2021 for another go at the brass ring. We’re paying for that NOW as you well know, and we’ll have to develop these young players if we expect to win anything. I believe that this coaching staff … now Todd Bowles coaching staff … is up to that challenge, although it MIGHT be a rocky road to start off with. I for one intend to enjoy the journey.
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:55 pm
I’ll admit I was wrong and say the Bucs are low key tanking for a Quarterback. If you wanted Baker to Pan out you wouldn’t not pay Mike Evans
September 3rd, 2023 at 1:00 pm
74 Bucs Fan Says:
September 3rd, 2023 at 10:47 am
So Mayfield was accurate on nearly 70% of his throws of at least 15 yards? Doesn’t sound bad to me. Context please.
***
This.
What a stupid statistic. That’s like saying Ted Williams failed on 60% of his at bats in his greatest season.
September 3rd, 2023 at 1:06 pm
I have a feeling, the Bucs run game will not live up to their expectations, and they will be throwing the football more than planned, out of necessity.
Enter, Baker Minefield and Mike Evans. Baker can sling a football, and Evans can go up and catch one.
Just hope Baker, slings it to the right colored jersey, lol
September 3rd, 2023 at 1:46 pm
I’m sure Mike’s agent keeps beating the drum to Mike that the Bucs don’t appreciate him. And he’s listening.
September 3rd, 2023 at 1:56 pm
Of course bradys ball gurgler is back
September 3rd, 2023 at 2:06 pm
I was saying trade Evans for a 3rd and 4th during the draft because giving ME13 ( the greatest offensive Buc ever ) isn’t worthy of a 5 year Hundred million dollar deal??? Send him to the other Tampa team aka Chiefs, but the pics better be worthy enough or we get one season and that’s it !! They have to pay Winfield and Whirfs because they aren’t giving Devin top money and shocked they didn’t trade him because this isn’t a good team and lucky if this is a 5 win season
September 3rd, 2023 at 2:07 pm
And Jensen still making millions and he’s going to coach are biggest weakness besides the cornerbacks 😳
September 3rd, 2023 at 2:23 pm
Well. If Frozenbuc’s brain EVER unfreezes and gets repaired he’d find out that Baker has been hampered by West-Last-Coast type of offenses his last 3 years. Freddie Kitchens might have been a worse speller than Terry Bradshaw, butt, he let Baker use his long-distance cannon. Baker came out of college with a great arm and superb accuracy. The accuracy was belittled by lousy schemes and horrible play calling. Mike Evans will be just fine…….. Not so sure about frozenbuc and his good friends. Danny Baker Buc Esq.
September 3rd, 2023 at 3:02 pm
Well his first 3 seasons Mayfield was in the top 5 on deep throw accuracy. Year 4 not so much after his left shoulder was held together with duct tape, year 5 everything about the stinking Panthers stunk. So which Mayfield will show up? Good question. The guy who had #1 talent is still in there. I think Canales can dig him back up
September 3rd, 2023 at 3:34 pm
Oh I don’t know DR, maybe when he stated in a presser he wasn’t going to run BA’s offense because the team is too tired at the end of the season. Sound familiar??? You and Joe can keep drinking the Bowles Koolaid. Don’t worry you can always use the injury/loss of talent card to cover your arse. KC lost their top receiver, how did they do??? Completely ignorant is one who continues to back a losing coach and justify it with meaningless stats. Even Bowles believes stats mean squat.
September 3rd, 2023 at 4:09 pm
It’s time for ownership to step in. A team having two disgruntled players asking for a trade a few weeks apart is unheard of. Its even worse when a guy like Evans feels he has to make a public ultimatum to force action. This is a no win situation. If the team is able to work out a deal with Evans. White will be even more upset than before. I hate to say it but if their is a trade partner willing to deal for Evans they should take the offer.
September 3rd, 2023 at 4:23 pm
Watch More ALL22 Before Commenting Says:
Mayfield was elite (by numbers) in deep ball accuracy before the shoulder Injury
Rewatched some games of Baker’s trying to see what others are.
Browns vs Packer Christmas 2021. Commentators quote Baker as ‘ his shoulder has never felt better’. Threw 3 picks 15+ yards and they were not even close to the receiver. Then with the game on the line he threw a 4 th @ 15+. As far as lateral screens and the offense Carolina ran it is right in his wheelhouse and familiar because of the ton he threw to his backs at CLV. If you depend on Mayfield to win the game with the deep pass you are done. If you depend on Baker and a game winning drive you wii get 7 plays 3 of 4 for 12 yards and a punt. In 2021 alone he blew 4 game winning drives. 2 on 8 plays and less than 20 yards. 2 with picks week one and Christmas when his shoulder was fine.
Have to believe what others are seeing is a mirage.
September 3rd, 2023 at 4:25 pm
Hay baker us 6.1 don’t short change him Wolford is on practice squad & Kyle is 2nd string so plz get u r crappy facts straight
September 3rd, 2023 at 4:36 pm
What’s a ball gurgler? And does he play offense or defense?
September 3rd, 2023 at 4:43 pm
NE Fan got roasted by DF!!!!
Joe don’t call DF a troll. His input is more entertaining than your post.
Joe owes DF a paycheck. Lol
September 3rd, 2023 at 5:22 pm
@ D Cone.
Since you are interested in reviewing tape, also do check the news & injury report (Mayfield had six different injury designations that late in the season). Oh, and Mayfield was in covid protocol the week of GreenBay and wasn’t able to practice before that game and spent the week thinking he wasn’t going to be activated.
Way to pick the most outlier of outlier games of an already outlier season.
Mayfield’s shoulder was injured in game 2, then fully fractured by JJ Watt in week 6. At that point, the harness came on. He kept playing – and probably shouldn’t have–but Stefanski put him out there as the Head Coach.
If you want to keep fighting your foolish fight, look up Mayfield’s accuracy throwing to the left side of the field and the deep ball BEFORE and AFTER the injury. In fact, look up his stats on throwing deep from 2018 to 2020 up through the Houston game.
It’s not that complicated. Of all the avenues to attack Mayfield on, deep ball accuracy is the most foolish. Many easier areas to critique.
September 3rd, 2023 at 5:33 pm
DR
Bowles lost a LOT of quality veterans in 2022 who had made the 2020 & 2021 teams as successful as they were. You know, guys like Gronk, Brown, Marpet, Cappa just on the offensive side. (Turns out THAT level of talent is extremely expensive apparently). Throw in some devastating injuries to Jensen (17 games lost), Donnie Smith (4 games lost), Wirfs (4 games lost) just on the OLine and that’s a lot to deal with. Even the great Tom Brady couldn’t make it work. It’s clear to just about everyone that BL was in way over his head under those conditions, and especially without BA’s Red Pen to help him.
—————————————————————————
And oh BTW, I am very much an advocate for a balanced attack, but probably not in the way you’re using the term. The primary goal IMO of a balanced attack is to keep the opposing team’s defense guessing (obviously necessitating being ‘unpredictable’ to a degree at least) such that you can find their weaknesses and exploit them.
*****************************************************
Very valid points regarding the loss of talent. Too much to overcome?
Some espouse the mantra of “next man up” but sometimes the talent just isn’t there, or is being used elsewhere.
Your statement about a ‘balanced attack’ and being unpredictable are also readily agreed with. Too bad we did neither last year.
I have expressed my concerns regarding Bowles HC abilities. His credentials as DC are about as good as there is. HC credentials?…… Not so much. Unpredictable?…..We were probably THEEEEE most predictable team in the league last year! Game planning is NOT the job of one coach. The entire staff should be involved. Studying film, looking for tendencies, weaknesses, and strengths. All the while, guided by the HC. BL may have been weak at this, sure, but that just proves the disconnect by the HC because HE let it go on through the entire year.
I’ve been trying not to post negative things about last year and look hopefully to the off season changes and what success they may bring us this year. Sorry to vent at you, but you seem to put all the blame on BL and give TB a complete pass. I think you are mistaken to do so.
Still, I’m looking forward to Bowles and his krewe proving me wrong.
September 3rd, 2023 at 7:14 pm
Alot of back and forth bantering…. Licht will do what he has to do for the Team / Franchise…. News flash more pain coming.
September 3rd, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Defense Rules Says:
September 3rd, 2023 at 12:50 pm
“Todd Bowles is hardly the perfect HC, but he is a very good DC. We celebrate BA for bringing us a Super Bowl championship, yet without Bowles as HIS DC most of us I think would agree that we wouldn’t have won that SB.”
I disagree with you on this point ^^ DR. Our offense SMOKED the Chiefs D in that game. Final score was 31-9. Maybe with a less competent DC, the game would have been more like 31-24, Bucs still easily win, at least in my opinion.
September 3rd, 2023 at 9:37 pm
D-Rok, I agree except I think it was more player motivation to win rather than scheme. Let’s not forget KC oline was worst than the Bucs last season and Reids kid/coach was arrested for a DUI/injuring a family driving a van the week prior to the SB. My guess he was a bit distracted. Those facts never are written in your posts, how come???
September 4th, 2023 at 12:21 am
NE Fan bingo. Tank Mayfield’s short passing game doesn’t square with Evans’ contract goals.
I predicted on earlier posts that Mayfield’s 6.5 yards/attempt + Bowles conservative mandate for offense wouldn’t play in the locker room with Evans pushing the 1000 yard record.
September 4th, 2023 at 12:33 am
“My guess he was a bit distracted. Those facts never are written in your posts, how come???”
Probably because guesses and options, by definition, are not facts.
September 4th, 2023 at 12:33 am
*opinions, not options
September 4th, 2023 at 1:52 am
Yes Joe,
Been waiting for you to point out the elephant in the room.
I do not expect a ton of deep balls form Canales. Unless we are playing from behind alot. Did Baker sling alot of deep balls in his very limited action thus far?
I am a big Evans fan but…If we do go deep, I expect the target to be Palmer more than Mike. Not to say Mike won’t get some but I see Palmer as more of a deep shot weapon. More of what we wanted Scooter to be. Mike more in the Red Zone.
However I could be wrong because he is a rookie. I would love to see Palmer become the guy teams have to make a choice on who to double. Mike, Chris, or Palmer. That would open up a ton of stuff for Canales and Mayfield.
Go Bucs!
September 4th, 2023 at 7:23 am
Unbelievable, not (options or opinion) Google it,.his son Brit just got sentenced 3 yrs because of it. Incident on Feb 4th 2022. Maybe keep YOUR options to yourself!
September 4th, 2023 at 7:26 am
FYI, Superbowl Feb 7th 2021. HUGE DISTRACTION!!! Oh and I failed to mention Mahomes bad foot.
September 4th, 2023 at 8:35 am
The other inconsistency to point out is the QB and wins. I think it should be a stat for QB,s because he puts the ball into play for roughly half the game similar to a MLB pitcher. The QB can lose or win a game in a hurry. But fans and pundits dismiss it if it does not fit their pre determined opinion. As for Baker the Bucs did not have a lot of options. They have a salary cap and the Glazers have to use that extra money to spend on Manchester United in a league with no cap and their cross town rivals Manchester City is owned by an oil rich Emerite.
September 4th, 2023 at 12:37 pm
@frozenbuc that is 💯
September 4th, 2023 at 2:17 pm
Dink and dunk is the only way Baker would be able to limit throwing interceptions and that wouldn’t work for Mike E.