A Mike Evans Contract Extension Can Help The Salary Cap
September 2nd, 2023
“Julio, I’m not ancient like you!”
It’s not just Mike Evans.
Yes, Evans wants to get paid. Who doesn’t? And Joe gets that paying a 30-year old wide receiver can be dicey. Just Google “30-year old wide receivers.” You’ll see it’s a mixed bag of results.
Nobody knows how Evans will play in a new offense or if he will continue his 1,000-yard streak. Joe can say that in training camp, Evans looked like he had his best camp of his career.
Evans was playing above the rim.
One thing keeping the Bucs from paying Evans is what lies down the road. Evans is just one Bucs stud that wants and should get paid.
Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield will want a fat extension. Winfield is in a contract year and is as solid of a player as you will find. Wirfs has one more year on his rookie contract. Re-signing Wirfs is as much of a no-brainer as you can get.
Then there is Devin White, who the Bucs had to sweet talk into dropping his trade demand. He wants Team Glazer loot, too.
(Of those four, if three get paid, regular readers likely know which three Joe is keeping.)
Even though the Bucs are crunched under the salary cap, Luke Easterling, typing for Athlon Sports, thinks signing Evans would be a smart move to get cap relief.
… … In fact, signing Evans to a new deal now would give them the opportunity to create some much-needed breathing room under the cap this year by restructuring that new deal to bring down his 2023 cap number. Tampa Bay barely has half a million dollars in cap space right now, which isn’t even enough to operate throughout the season.
Would this entail more kick-the-can-down-the-curb payments down the road? Of course.
If Evans’ production was tailing off, Joe could better understand why the Bucs haven’t re-upped him yet. It’s understandable to be cautious with a receiver turning 30. But Evans hasn’t shown any decline. In fact, it’s probably just the opposite.
https://twitter.com/ggabefootball/status/1697669853413363819
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:10 am
This how they talk about mike evans
“He’s not fast”
“He’s a one trick pony”
“He had anger issues”
“He drops passes”
“He can’t run routes”
Only to follow up with
“I sure would like him on my team “😵💫🥴😵💫
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:17 am
3 years $65M with 45M guaranteed.
That would put Evans in the lower range of the top ten paid receivers in the NFL.
No way is he worth $26-$30M per season…
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:19 am
One of the best Bucs of all time. Hope they get it done and Mike finishes his career in Tampa.
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:27 am
Mike is very important to the Bucs and the Tampa Bay Area. They need to quit playing around and get it done. I get that it’s a business but it’s good business to sign him!
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:36 am
Marine you want to pay a 33 year old WR 22 mil a year?
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:42 am
I honestly don’t get the problem in giving him a three year deal to get us through this reload/rebuild. Give him the raise with the money we will get with Gages eventual release. Thats $10m. We can run out with ME, Godwin and Palmer and have one of the best WR corps in the league, with the exact same investment we have this year. Mike is beloved in the community and one of our only known players. We need to do right by him. There will be plenty of cap space next year when the dead money comes off the books, getting this deal done is a commitment to Mike and the fans.
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:46 am
Only problem Herbie is none of those items are real issues. The only thing working against him now is his age.
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:46 am
An easy solution is to not pay 45. He’s never gonna be worth whatever he’s demanding. Let some other team deal with his coverage deficiencies. Whites play is more at risk for drastic regression bc he relies purely on his athleticism. Mike, on the other hand, is a hall of famer who I’d bet on having at least 3 quality yrs left. He’s an asset in the community and the locker room with a track record of producing even with sub par QB play. This is a no brainer. Just pay Mike, Wirfs, and Win.
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:51 am
@ Mike S
Most of the guaranteed money would be paid by year 2. If the Bucs want to cut Evans when he turns 33 the cap hit would be minimal…
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:52 am
This is the problem: If you are going to rebuild, rebuild. Hard to justify paying a 30-year old receiver top-shelf cash if you are truly rebuilding.
If a team is not rebuilding, then keeping Evans is a smart move.
(Joe would *love* to have a high first round draft pick of a quarterback throwing to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.)
September 2nd, 2023 at 10:53 am
@ Mike S
Really what I believe is the smartest move is to let Evans test the free agent market after this season.
Same as they did Carlton Davis and LVD – they both ended up coming back to Tampa on relatively cheap deals…
September 2nd, 2023 at 11:02 am
I figure regardless what we pay Evans he’ll PROBABLY be productive this year, and the 2 following, small chance at the next (turns 33 in training camp of that year)
Yet, of what I can read, his agent is demanding serious guaranteed money for THAT year TOO
September 2nd, 2023 at 11:03 am
i see them paying mike…
they will pay wirfs…
white is a question mark…
and more so i see winfield as a bigger question mark…the concussion issue looms…what if he has those issues again this year…just saying…
i know we have a defensive head coach, but i see the offensive players of that group as the ones getting paid, while they muddle it over with the defensive guys and their issues
September 2nd, 2023 at 11:16 am
also i’ve heard mike say he’s learned to keep his body correct, keep his weight lower than when he came in the league, eat right, and probably learned a few techniques to prolonging a career by working closely with brady…
that being said, he might be able to squeeze 2-3 extra years out of his career on those factors alone…
also he can shift his game to a more possession type receiver down the line, where he blocks defenders off to catch some balls a tight end might get…at that point maybe he even brings his weight back up to 240 and his yard per catch drops down a bit to 10 or 11 yards per catch…
mike just might be a guy who’s productive until 35…
like an older pitcher in baseball whose losing speed on his fastball…they get craftier and maybe add a pitch…in comparison, mike is definitely a crafty receiver who at times abuses defenders
September 2nd, 2023 at 11:18 am
BUCS FANS: if I’m right Chris Godwin will be 29 when his contract expires. I bet this is going to be some stupid trend. How long will CG be our #1 a couple years they won’t resign him if they won’t sign ME13.
Apparently the team is in win mode by investing in the defense but the offense is in rebuild mode? That’s about what fans can expect from a Todd Bowles football team. If the head coach felt he needed him they’d do what it takes to keep him. Couldn’t believe a first time OC wouldn’t want him. Sh!t show every year under toilet Bowles.
September 2nd, 2023 at 11:20 am
Jimmy Buffett passed away last night. Appreciate the great times Bredren
September 2nd, 2023 at 11:21 am
I’d be good with Marine Bucs proposal. The cap is projected to go up quite a lot the next 2 years ($256m and then $282m). I had no idea lol those are huge increases if true and does change what we can afford
September 2nd, 2023 at 12:01 pm
He is worth keeping even in a rebuild. Think of the leadership and mentorship he can bring to a young team. You gotta have some vets even on a rebuilding team.
September 2nd, 2023 at 12:17 pm
Shakeandbaker … ‘Only problem Herbie is none of those items are real issues. The only thing working against him now is his age.’
Yes age is working against him, but it’s not the only thing. Our salary CAP situation is currently the biggest impediment IMO to getting a deal done. Everyone’s looking at the 2023 Bucs salary CAP situation and saying ‘Woe is us’ but it’ll almost surely be worse in 2024, and I’m sure THAT’S what Licht & Greenberg are focusing on.
Just like Joe wrote, any deal we do with Mike Evans now will impact what we can do at the end of the season with Wirfs, Winfield, White, Gaines, LVD, Neal, Feiler, McLaughlin, and oh ya … very possibly Baker Mayfield (plus 10 other FAs currently on our roster). IOW, they’ve got some BIG bills coming up, and some massive Dead CAP numbers to deal with IF we start cutting folks. The FLEXIBILITY we had in 2023 to restructure isn’t at the same level in 2024 (that’s the problem with kicking the can EVEN FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD).
Oh and ShakeandBaker, there’s at least 1 other thing working against Mike right now, and that’s your namesake. How important is Mike Evans to this NEW OFFENSE designed by Dave Canales and operated by Baker Mayfield? Mike’s OK in the short passing game, but his real strength is in the intermediate & deep passing arena. How important will that be to Dave Canales? And can Baker Mayfield get the ball to Mike often enough in the deeper routes like Jameis & TB12 were able to? We’re not gonna know until we get a few games under our belt. Maybe that’s why JL is really holding the line on a new ME13 contract? Maybe he just wants to see how Mike fits in this new scheme.
September 2nd, 2023 at 12:22 pm
“Joe would *love* to have a high first round draft pick of a quarterback throwing to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.”
We already have that in Baker Mayfield.
LFG
Sign Evans! NO EXCUSES!
September 2nd, 2023 at 12:36 pm
Vincent Jackson was almost 30 when we paid him top dollar to come here. It’s not as relevant with their play style.
September 2nd, 2023 at 12:41 pm
If Mayfield is a bust, Trask seems more suited to the downfield thing
September 2nd, 2023 at 12:41 pm
Contracts aren’t based on what you have done in the past…it’s what u can do now. Best thing Evans could do is ball out for for a few games with baker…..gives him leverage with the bucs and increases his trade value.
September 2nd, 2023 at 12:55 pm
@ DR
I agree with your take except the part which states the Bucs salary cap situation will be worse in 2024 than it was this year…
We will have some cap hits and dead cap in 2024 but nothing close to the $77M dead cap hit we had in 2023.
Depending what happens with Shaq and Jenson – Mike Evan’s $12M will be our biggest dead cap hit – PLUS – the salary cap is going up by @ $30M in 2024.
September 2nd, 2023 at 1:17 pm
Defense Rules
September 2nd, 2023 at 1:21 pm
Not too many here seem to understand that the money you pay now for a WR is small potatoes compared to what that same quality of WR will cost 2 or 3 years from now as the salaries for premium WR’s have been escalating extremely fast , so paying a 33 y.o. WR 22 Mill on it’s face seems high in 2023 , it will be a bargain by 2024 or 2025.
September 2nd, 2023 at 2:10 pm
Marine Buc & LUVMYBUCS … I know that saying the 2024 salary CAP situation will almost surely be worse is not what everyone has been told & is expecting, but salary CAP isn’t JUST about Dead CAP. We don’t even have a very good idea at this point just what our 2024 Dead CAP will be (that’s why Spotrac doesn’t include in the the 2024 salary CAP projection yet?).
Bucs projected 2024 adjusted salary CAP is $240.5 mil. We currently have only 42 players under contract for 2024 (and 4 of them are currently on IR). The projected payroll for those 42 is $220.8 mil (Top-51 but that’s irrelevant with only 42 signed). That gives us a whopping $19.8 mil salary CAP space to play with … BEFORE IR costs and Dead CAP is even considered (it’s not figured in Spotrac’s calculation for obvious reasons).
The good news (?) is that we’ll have 8 players under contract in 2024 whose salary CAP hit will be OVER $10 mil (Godwin, Shaq, Vea, Davis, Dean, Wirfs, Jensen, Gage). The CAP hit for those 8 players together totals $157.3 mil … 71% of our projected CAP (again, BEFORE IR & Dead CAP costs are factored in). Unfortunately we’re gonna have to eat 2 of those 8 CAP hits as a minimum (Jensen & Gage). We’ll be able to restructure the rest to give us some breathing room, but that’s about it. That seems to be the penalty for being a young team (not that many on a 2nd or 3rd contract thus worth restructuring to buy CAP space).
September 2nd, 2023 at 2:37 pm
Man, so many great points being made by so many different posters. That’s why I come here.
Truth be told, there is no easy solution to this conundrum. I’m favoring the school of thought where if we can sign Evans to a three year deal with a voidable year or two we can kill two birds with one stone if everyone is willing to be reasonable. We get crucial cap relief this year that we desperately need and we keep a Buc icon who still plays at a high level for the rest of his foreseeable career.
The downside of that: his age, like many have pointed out and the possibility that the Bowles regime might be flippin’ burgers instead of coaching next year. The other thing is Evans’ demands. This is undoubtedly his last big contract and I don’t know if he’s willing to play for $22 or $23 million a year. We got a good deal on Dean and Davis, but will Evans be equally mindful that he needs a team around him to succeed? Look at KC and GB last year. They were paying their QBs so much that they couldn’t afford to keep their best, but slightly older receivers who also wanted more room at the trough. This Tyreek Hill and Devonte Adams went elsewhere. We do have a cap nightmare on the horizon next year and a shipload of uncertainty as baggage. As much as I hate Bowles his retention depends on the BUCS succeeding this year. The price of his departure is unwatchable football this year.
September 2nd, 2023 at 4:04 pm
@ DR
I understand.
Over the Cap has the Bucs at close to $47M of cap with 42 signed.
We have several big contracts to consider – Wirfs, Evans, White, Winfield, Neal, Mayfield or another QB.
The Bucs also need to figure out what to do with Jenson and Shaq.
If we draft a QB in round #1 next year it would probably help solve some of these issues… We would be able to keep everyone.
Unless Mayfield has a career year that is what the Bucs will probably do. There are @ 15-20 QBs who could be drafted next year.
September 2nd, 2023 at 4:07 pm
@ DR
Regardless – I still don’t see the Bucs Cap situation being worse than this year…
The Bucs are currently only spending $148.9M on their top 51 paid players.
That is crazy.
September 2nd, 2023 at 4:28 pm
@ DR
It’s actually a little worse than we thought. The Bucs only have 36 players signed for 2024.
Six of the 42 are players who have VOID years in their current deals like – Evans, Feiler, Mayfield, Winfield, LVD and Gains…
So – I understand what you mean. Next season is also going to be tight.
September 2nd, 2023 at 5:05 pm
Pay him or trade him, that easy, if you don’t pay him out lingers over the team all year, then we get nothing, trade him if you’re not willing to pay him.
September 2nd, 2023 at 7:46 pm
Next season is going to be tight – and 2025 as well….
The Bucs kicked more than $100M down the road while Brady was here. And again did a good bit more of that this year to get under the cap (from a $75M over the cap starting point) and to TRY to field a competitive team this year (by signing Dean, LD54, Gaines, Neal, Mayfield, etc.).
Brady’s $36M is coming off the books this year – but the Bucs are STILL in cap hell for at least another 2 years – because there’s still at least $80-90M sitting out there that has already been “spent” (via re-structures, dummy years and dead cap hits) which has to be accounted for.
The Jensen contract in particular is killing us since he won’t be playing probably ever again and has only played (badly) 1 playoff game since he signed for 3 years at $39M with $26M guaranteed…. So the Bucs are basically paying Jensen $26M for that 1 embarrassing playoff loss…..
The problem with re-signing Evans to a multiyear deal in order to “gain cap space” this year is that of kicking another $10-15M down the road – on top of the $90M (which is basically all dead cap $) that is already sitting there…
September 2nd, 2023 at 8:23 pm
Thanks Pickgrin. Many have gotten the idea that we’ll pay our dues in 2023 then it’ll be sunshine & roses from 2024 on. As you very elegantly stated, that’s not really how this whole salary CAP thing works. EVERY DECISION (signings, etc) has ramifications. I think though that JL has done a good job thus far navigating this quagmire.
September 3rd, 2023 at 7:24 am
The kick the can thing is why it won’t get done this year Joe. Licht is determined to get out from under the cap problems as much as possible now and in the near future.
Reloading means they are biting the bullet this year as much as possible, without causing more cap issues later. look at the roster full of UDFAs, one year FA contracts and rookies. Never saw this many in Bucland before.
Licht will scrounge up enough for this seasons operations, and then worry about Evans, White, and some of the others. Plus our cap grows a bunch next year.
Go Bucs!
Go Bucs!
September 3rd, 2023 at 7:27 am
The kick the can thing is why it won’t get done this year Joe. Licht is determined to get out from under the cap problems as much as possible now and in the near future.
Reloading means they are biting the bullet this year as much as possible, without causing more cap issues later. look at the roster full of UDFAs, one year FA contracts and rookies. Never saw this many in Bucland before.
Licht will get up enough money for this seasons operations, and then worry about Evans, White, and some of the others. Plus our cap grows a bunch next year.
Go Bucs!