Wild Card Bucs
August 25th, 2023
Prediction season is here and Joe can’t wait to unload a bunch of them on an upcoming Ira Kaufman Podcast.
What’s more fun than guzzling Big Storm beer while making football prognostications and arguing about them with The Sage of Tampa Bay Sports?
The Bucccaneers are a huge wild card team this season, meaning Joe knows many fans are thinking 10 wins in a crappy division while many others are sniffing a four-win total. That’s a huge disparity. Usually, the wins-range for fans of a team isn’t so wide.
Former Bucs QB Chris Simms illustrated how the Bucs are a team that’s tough to predict this season. Making and dissecting NFC South picks on his NBC Sports YouTube show, Simms said he feels the oddsmakers nailed it when they gave the 2023 Bucs an over-under of 6 1/2 wins.
Ultimately, Simms chose the under for a Bucs season win total, but then he waffled and explained how he wouldn’t be surprised if Tampa Bay started the season 3-1 with wins against the Vikings, Bears and Saints.
And of course, if you go 3-1, there’s no good reason to finish with six wins unless an injury wave arrives.
Simms has a lot of faith in the Bucs defense and is skeptical the offense will be any better than last year’s, in part because he thinks Chris Godwin and Mike Evans aren’t what they used to be.
Joe sees an improved offense for 2023, primarily because it couldn’t get much worse than the 18 points a game the Bucs averaged last season. And Joe also believes in the Bucs defense.
Modern NFL history says if a team can average 20 to 21 points a game and have a top-10 defense, that team is going to win 7 or 8 games. The slimy Saints landed in that camp last season.
Ira Kaufman Goes Deeper Into The Baker Mayfield Decision, Talks What Wants To See Against Baltimore, The Bucs & The Trade Deadline, Bucs Running Backs Uncertainty & More
August 25th, 2023 at 12:39 pm
Can’t wait for Joe’s prediction
August 25th, 2023 at 12:45 pm
As much as I dislike Bowles, and the teams general direction, I’m impressed by our linebacker talent. They’ve got to be some of the best in the NFL
August 25th, 2023 at 12:50 pm
the tippy top best record this team might be able to muster is 10 wins IMHO. Thats with unbelievable coaching, great special teams, amazing decision making, and the rookie class being amazing.
I for one dont expect this coaching staff to put the team in the best position to win, based off of the past.
So I think it seems pretty obvious to me that the team is destined for mediocrity. I think they are much, much closer to total collapse than a perfectly optimized team….
August 25th, 2023 at 1:09 pm
LOL nowhere yo go but up!! Good one. I just wat see the Vikes game now. I bet Bowles rigs the Ravens game to make Mayfield look better than Trask.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:11 pm
Oddmakers have to be right or broke.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:12 pm
This is good. 6 1/2 games means 1 tie. Which game we tie?
August 25th, 2023 at 1:19 pm
Simms can barely hide his contempt for The Bucs. It’s rather humorous and fun to watch.
Bowles reversing course on his own personal losing streak as a head coach is highly unlikely. The Bucs are stuck with him this year…but in close matchups ( most are in the NFL ) the crossed arms resting on his boiler Bowles will be outsmarted more often than not.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:31 pm
So many question marks with this team –
– New OC
– Offensive line
– Running backs/run game
– QB
– Defensive line – Kancey? Logan Hall?
– DB depth
– New kicker
If this team gets hit with a wave of injuries (especially on the O-line and DBs) it will be tough to win more than 3-4 games.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:40 pm
ME and Godwin aren’t what they used to be…LMAO.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:47 pm
3 more points will get you 10 wins
August 25th, 2023 at 1:59 pm
I think the burden is on Dave Canales, to try and conjure up something with this offense.
Revelation for today: Someone has to score enough points to win, and the defense is unreliable at scoring points.
August 25th, 2023 at 2:07 pm
At a minimum, The Bucs should win 8 games-split in NFC South (3); split in NFC North (2): 3-1 in AFC South. That gets to 8. Certain losses to the Eagles, 49ers, and Bills. They can pick up anywhere from 1-3 games against NFC South and North combines. Potential for 11-6, most likely 9-8.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:08 pm
Five wins seems about right. Bucs have very good talent at WR, LB LT, DT, CB and S, but the Bucs have arguably the worst RT in the NFL, a terrible running game, a below average QB and a bottom five head coach.
Bowles poor decisions will most likely cost the Bucs two or three wins this year and the Bucs poor running game will expose the RT position so much it is going to make things very difficult for Baker.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:18 pm
Joe says ” it couldn’t get much worse than the 18 points a game the Bucs averaged last season.” If the head coach thinks that a run of 7 yards on 2nd and 11 is a good football play (earl8er post), it tells me he’s not interested in moving the chains, which you have to do to score points. So, I’m not sure the offense is going to get better.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:22 pm
4-13.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:25 pm
Six wins.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:49 pm
“Prediction season is here” it beats the crap out of “list season”.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:52 pm
I’m excited about this BUCs team and love the new guys they’ve brought in via the draft and free agency. Three years from now when we look back I bet we will see that Licht him a home run in the off-season with the new guys he brought in. Our GM should be arrested and charged with Grand Theft for acquiring Palmer in the 6th round as well as many of the other new acquisitions. Several of these UDFA’s could end up on the active roster and make significant contributions this season.
That said, I have no idea as to how many wins they’ll get THIS season. Many of these new guys need to be developed. The o-line will take some time to gel.
If everything goes perfectly I can see them winning 10 games. But if they have any injuries in positions they’re lacking depth in then it could get ugly. With the salary cap situation the way it was it was never realistic to build another championship team in a single season, but they are building one. We just need to have a little patience. 😉
August 25th, 2023 at 3:58 pm
J Says:
August 25th, 2023 at 1:40 pm
ME and Godwin aren’t what they used to be…LMAO
THAT’S WHAT I SAW TOO!!!
This is the problem with national commentators. They don’t follow closely. Simms doesn’t know Evans is having his best camp ever.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:58 pm
Sports Illustrated had the Bucs at 12-5 last year
CBS Sports had them at 10-7
Vegas in 2022 had the Bucs win total at 11.5
Let’s be honest none of these “experts” have any idea what they are talking about, they are guessing. No one remembers predictions from one year to the next. Heck Peter Kind predicted the Aints to win the Super Bowl in 2022. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Bucs won’t be as bad as the uninformed media thinks or as good as their talent is since Bowles is the Head Coach.
August 25th, 2023 at 4:33 pm
Chris Simms is a joke. Hot takes come with a ton of smoke. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are not what they used to be? The last I checked, they both were 1,000 yard receivers last year even with Brady having a subpar season. Nothing tells me that they are falling off. It’s not about Mike and Chris. It’s more about the O line and running game. If we’re effective as a balanced offense, and block well, with our defense we should be able to compete. If Mayfield does a halfway decent job, we should be looking at another playoff birth. At least the “Wildcard”. In my opinion, the saints are overrated, the Falcons will crumble early, and the Panthers will be the Panthers. QB aside, we are the most stable team in the NFC south.
August 25th, 2023 at 4:53 pm
I just saved this article so I can come back and compare everyone’s predictions to see who is on the money
August 25th, 2023 at 4:54 pm
Interesting, Sims thinks 6 wins after they start out 3-1, while I have them getting 5 wins after starting out 2-1.
In any case, I’ve taken the under. I have zero confidence in Todd Bowles and his 11th pick at OC. Going from Leftwich to anyone else is certainly an upgrade, but you lost Tom Brady and you’re replacing him with the worst QB in football over the last two years.
I might be optimistic with a 5-12 record.
August 25th, 2023 at 4:59 pm
Joe seriously believes Mike Evans has had his best training camp. The first thing that goes through Joe’s mind while watch Chris Godwin is, “What knee?”
August 25th, 2023 at 5:01 pm
This comment is not related to wild Card Bucs.
A offensive tackle was recently released by the Eagles-Fred Johnson{former Buc} could provide needed depth for the OL.
August 25th, 2023 at 5:03 pm
Joe Says:
Joe seriously believes Mike Evans has had his best training camp.
————
Based on Joe’s comments, I’ve been grabbing Evans everywhere in fantasy. He’s super cheap as people just look at Mayfield and flee. But if Evans can get it done with Glennon and McCown, I think even Mayfield might be able to figure out to just throw it high and let Evans come down with it.
August 25th, 2023 at 5:25 pm
Really depends on how they start. If they start out 3-1 then we could be looking at a team who is 5-3 or 6-2 at the end of week 9. So I am going to go with 10 wins if they start out 3-1.
Baker is an emotional leader and the Bucs do have a roster still filled with guys from the Super Bowl, who know how to win so they could get rolling and win a bunch of games.
August 25th, 2023 at 5:29 pm
Saints will win the division. This year…possibly the next few years.
Even if we get a top QB next year, it will take a couple years to break him in.
And that’s assuming Baker doesn’t squeak out 3-5 wins and cost us a top QB.
August 25th, 2023 at 5:32 pm
If Mayfield plays like he did in 2020 10 wins is within reach IMHO. 9 will win the NFCS. If we win less than 9 this is going to be a completely new team next year, unless 8 wins the division again. Even if that happens a blowout playoff loss will have the front office looking at this staff kinda slantyeyed.
August 25th, 2023 at 6:03 pm
This might be the widest separation of opinions ever
10 wins with Todd and Baker? Brand new OC, dude has never called a play!!!
This is a 5-6 win team using logic
Anything more is just wishful thinking
Todd’s D gets hot in spurts then goes cold for spurts – there will be a good run in there but ultimately the D will collapse from injury and lack of depth plus pressure by an underperforming offense
Chase Edmunds is the #2 back on a “running” team
It’s literally a joke
August 25th, 2023 at 6:16 pm
HC Grover, rig the pre-season!? Well if he can do that and make Baker and offense look good, then great he can do it when live bullets start against Vikings!
August 25th, 2023 at 6:21 pm
99 Bigfella, 8-9…mark the tape!
August 25th, 2023 at 6:29 pm
Voice of Truth
This is such a delusional fanbase – I can’t even
August 25th, 2023 at 6:30 pm
6-11 a hair under to frustrate the suckers who took the over.
August 25th, 2023 at 6:31 pm
Bowles as head coach has had 4 losing seasons out of 5. During those 4 losing seasons, his offense’s averaged around 18 points per game. So last year was on par. One of those seasons was with Tom Brady. I’m convinced that Bowles is an average defensive coach and the only thing offensive about him, is his head coaching ability. He has a tendency to “lock the trigger” on his own offense. We saw that last year in mismanagement of timeouts and 4th down decisions. I saw Brady pi$$ed off many times at Todd’s decisions last year!
August 25th, 2023 at 7:43 pm
BucsFanSince1996 … ‘If everything goes perfectly I can see them winning 10 games. But if they have any injuries in positions they’re lacking depth in then it could get ugly.’
I’ve been saying 10-7 this season since Day 1, but you’re right about injuries. We simply don’t have adequate depth in several position groups this year.
I’m convinced that all of these talking heads underestimate the Bucs’ defense. If it can stay reasonably healthy, it has a good chance IMO of being not just a Top-10 defense, but up into the Top-5. Based on the last few years, that’d mean giving up about 20 PPG average, but that average would more than likely be based on a couple of blowouts (we always seem to have them). So most games would be more in the neighborhood of 17 PPG or so. We can compete for the NFC South crown with those numbers, assuming that our offense can do at least as good as last year.
August 25th, 2023 at 8:09 pm
Defense Rules Says:
August 25th, 2023 at 7:43 pm
———————————-
“I’m convinced that all of these talking heads underestimate the Bucs’ defense. If it can stay reasonably healthy, it has a good chance IMO of being not just a Top-10 defense, but up into the Top-5. ”
——————————————————————————-
I believe we DO have the personnel now to be a Top-5 defense or close to it.
But it could be a season away as these new guys need to be developed and learn Bowles defense.
But it looks like we greatly improved our pass rush which in turn will help out our secondary.
August 25th, 2023 at 8:27 pm
U people r crazy all u can ask is everyone on the team gives 110% & show these guys some love hate is for losers ust look at the democrats we r better than that optimistic is the only attitude excepted here.baker baker baker he is way better option than that cheat brady
August 25th, 2023 at 9:07 pm
It is way, way early to even begin thinking about the season, much less p-p-p-playoffs. Uncertainties throughout, huge questions still unanswered.
August 25th, 2023 at 9:18 pm
StretchOMatic Says:
August 25th, 2023 at 6:31 pm
I’m convinced that Bowles is an average defensive coach and the only thing offensive about him, is his head coaching ability.
—————————————————————————————-
To prepare the defense that held Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs to zero TD’s in the Super Bowl isn’t something an “average” defensive coach would be capable of.
As a HC the jury is still out. But to judge him based upon last season when he wasn’t even able to choose his own OC isn’t fair.
August 25th, 2023 at 10:16 pm
CBS Madden 24 simulation has Bucs as the #2 seed and losing the Super Bowl to the Chiefs 28-17. I don’t know if I can handle losing a Super Bowl
August 25th, 2023 at 10:16 pm
Simms lost me at he thinks CG14 n ME13 arnt what they use to be. He’s smoking that wacky tabaky if he really thinks they lost a step. ME13 is having his best camp ever. Make simms eat crow mile
August 25th, 2023 at 10:26 pm
Top 10 Defense + 23 points per game average = 10 wins
Very doable for this roster. Although the Defense may well have to carry the team a bit for the first few games.
August 25th, 2023 at 10:26 pm
Who thinks Mayfield will dig the Bucs out of the 4th qtr holes Bowles game plans get them in like Brady did?
August 25th, 2023 at 10:56 pm
I think Evans looked bad last year and that was Brady’s fault . TB12 could not move and was afraid to throw unless you were wide open. Brady was under duress much of the time
the combination led to failed plays over and over.
August 25th, 2023 at 11:49 pm
I have seen many Bucs team over the years (since 1982), with or without many talents. I have seen defenses ranked up in the top 3 and many in worst .. I do like how this defense build under Todd and and I do believe they have the talent and the core to keep it under 21 points. Most NFL games over under is 44 to 48 , if we can muster 24 points per game we will have 9 or 10 wins otherwise we will be 6-11 or 7-10 team as Vegas predicted. O line will dictate how far we go IMHO.
August 26th, 2023 at 2:00 am
Colonel Angus Says:
August 25th, 2023 at 10:16 pm
CBS Madden 24 simulation has Bucs as the #2 seed and losing the Super Bowl to the Chiefs 28-17. I don’t know if I can handle losing a Super Bowl
——-
WOW, that’s amazing. I’ll gladly take a SB loss over going 5-12.
August 26th, 2023 at 4:41 am
Chris Sims is an over rated loudmouth idiot how woeks overtime to come up with this crap.
I think sometimes he needs to invite some of the people he trashes over for a Big Storm and see who walks out.
Go Bucs!
August 26th, 2023 at 4:58 am
A lot of people think the Saints are going to run away with the division but their head coach is Dennis Allen. The same Dennis Allen who is likely the only head coach that knows how to “play not to lose” better than Todd Bowles. We saw that in person in Tampa last season as they choked away a sure win vs the Bucs. I am not saying the Bucs take the division as Vegas is probably right about not trusting Bowles and the weak OL so I say they go 7-10, just good enough to pick out of the top 10 in the draft. Saints may not be much better. The ATL looks like they want to ground and pound but do have an OL to do it but one dimensional teams tend to get exposed. Frank Reich is a good coach at Carolina, I would trust him more than Allen or Bowles. My guess is that Carolina get to 8 or 9 wins and gets the #4 seed and an early exit from the playoffs. The other 3 teams will battle for the basement with anywhere from 5 to 7 wins.
August 26th, 2023 at 6:12 am
FortMyersDave … ‘My guess is that Carolina get to 8 or 9 wins and gets the #4 seed and an early exit from the playoffs. The other 3 teams will battle for the basement with anywhere from 5 to 7 wins.’
Frank Reich is the most experienced HC in this division, but he’s working with a meh roster in Carolina that’s still unproven, so not sure they’ll get the division crown. Atlanta’s offense concerns me, but not their defense. Bucs & Saints seem like the best bets to win the division, at least for now, and that could go either way. I think though that 10-7 could get it, but either team is capable of that IMO (whoever beats the other twice will probably take the crown).
I’m also convinced that our offense will struggle somewhat for the first half of the season, but then HOPEFULLY get its act together for the last 8-9 games. If not, we will be someplace around 6-7 wins. But our 2nd half of the season looks to be somewhat easier than the 1st half (49ers, Colts, Panthers, Falcons, Packers, Jaguars, Saints, Panthers), even though 5 of the last 8 games are away.
August 26th, 2023 at 10:12 am
I don’t pay much attention to what Sims says. He is still pissed that he left his spleen in Tampa.