Stat Geeks Are Not Fond Of Baker Mayfield
August 21st, 2023
“Adam, what’s wrong with those geeks? I didn’t corrupt their Excel software.”
At least these guys are consistent.
Baker Mayfield triggers statgeeks like Lovie Smith triggers Joe.
Joe cannot find one statgeek who remotely believes Mayfield can lead the Bucs to the playoffs. In fact, statgeeks are pretty convinced the Bucs are low-key tanking by turning to Mayfield.
Take Rich Hribar typing for Sharp Football Analysis. He ranked all NFL quarterbacks in tiers and he has Baker Mayfield (and Kyle Trask, too) in the same tier with Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton and Colt McCoy. “Tier-8.”
The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft has done nothing but step backward after his initial success as a rookie. In 2022 with the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield was 30th in success rate (35.6%) … .
If looking for a silver lining, at least Mayfield will be throwing to multiple viable wide receivers when all that he had in 2022 was D.J. Moore for his stint with the Panthers before taking over a Los Angeles offense down Cooper Kupp.
The Bucs selected Trask in the second round of the 2021 draft. While he has been buried behind Brady, it was extremely odd that the organization let Blaine Gabbert in the game before him in Week 18 last season when there was a clear opportunity to finally give him some real action. Trask has thrown just nine passes in the NFL.
Now Joe had a conversation about this “extremely odd” issue this morning with a hardcore Bucs fan. Said fan couldn’t understand how Todd Bowles started Blaine Gabbert in Week 18 over Trask, while confessing Gabbert was the No. 2 quarterback.
Joe can’t understand why folks can’t understand why this took place. How is this remotely odd?
Gabbert was Tom Brady’s backup. So you mean to tell Joe that you’d rather have your No. 3 quarterback shake off the cobwebs by playing in Week 18 but keep your No. 2 quarterback rusty and in mothballs for a playoff game, in case he had to play?
The notion you wouldn’t want your No. 2 quarterback to get work to sharpen up and instead play your No. 3 quarterback a week before a postseason game is beyond asinine. The Bucs were preparing for a playoff game, not for 2023.
But back to Mayfield. No sect of society seems to want to shovel dirt in his face more than the statgeeks. What did he ever do to them, send a virus to their laptops?
August 21st, 2023 at 3:03 pm
Stats are just a tool…no more no less….
Much more things to be considered than stats…..
August 21st, 2023 at 3:09 pm
We’ve all seen BM at his best, seen his good and seen his bad. Problem is there is WAY more bad than good. We ALL know what we get with BM and it isn’t good.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:10 pm
I wonder if the stat nerds take into consideration that the guy had 3 different HCs and 3 different OCs in his first 3 seasons. That’s a bad shake however you look at it. I think he’s now on his 7th HC and 6th OC.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:11 pm
Whoever that stat geek is, he’s automatically wrong by having Ryan Tannenhill in the same category as Colt McCoy.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:13 pm
Yes mayfield will start the first game joe. Hooray. He won’t start many more after that tho. You either process quickly and have great field vision or you don’t. He be who he be, he do what he do!! Do do
August 21st, 2023 at 3:17 pm
When someone shows you who they are, believe them. Mayfields history shows who he is.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:17 pm
“We ALL know what we get with BM and it isn’t good”
The problem is that out don’t exactly know what you’d get with Mayfield. Mayfield was a solid quarterback for the Browms until the last 2 years when he had to deal with injuries and Matt Rhule as a coach…..
He literally played well for the Rams last year who were terrible on offense even with Stafford at the helm.
BM holds the rookie record for most passing TDs and lead a team to an 11-5 playoff season…..so to keep saying he’s completely “trash” is total nonsense cause he’s had success in the NFL
August 21st, 2023 at 3:18 pm
I don’t understand why people think BM is bad. He quarterbacked THE BROWNS to the playoffs via 11-5 record in his 3rd season, while on his 3rd HC and in his 3rd offensive system. He suffered a career threatening injury in his 4th season, but toughed it out and played through it, only to be shunned in favor of a Masseuse Raper. . While he hasn’t been a great QB, he also hasn’t been a terrible QB.
He’s a Buc now. Give the guy a freakin chance.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:18 pm
Interesting position Joe. So the ‘stat geeks’ want to ‘shovel dirt in Mayfield’s face’ because they rank his career to-date according to his performances. How dare they. Of course, when making the case for Ronde to get selected for the Hall of Fame, it was those same ‘stats’ that Ira & everyone else turned to to make the case for Ronde having a HOF career.
Sorry Joe, but you have it both ways. Stats are either a measurement of one’s performance over time or they’re not. I’m sure that teams’ hierarchies take POTENTIAL (and surely other factors) into account when signing players, but that’s their gamble. Some work out, some don’t. Fans don’t need to gamble that way.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:20 pm
Mayfield sucks!
August 21st, 2023 at 3:23 pm
And where is Blaine Gabbert and Tom Brady today, one retired and the other was released. How did not giving any reps to Kyle in the closing minutes of any game for two years help the Bucs in any way ? Kyle demonstrated when he has finally been given the chance to play , in the four quarters he has played so far this preseason he has shown rapid and continuous improvement, in those four quarters he has thrown for over 317 yards, scrambled for more and was named the most valuable player in the game against the Jets. What the coaching staff did to Kyle the two years before that borders on professional malfeasance.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:24 pm
“Baker is experienced” is the cry. But (mostly) his experience is losing games.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:24 pm
According to WFLA’s poll during Saturday’s broadcast most Bucs fans (54%) are stat geeks.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:27 pm
Again nothing against Baker but he’s a below average QB with a losing record after six seasons and almost 70 games played.
I much rather take the chance on the unproven 2nd round investment the Bucs made at the position two years ago in Trask. It’s obvious he was not developed under Arians and co. He’s already progressed leaps and bounds under Canales. If he shows promise this season you have your QB for this year and next year before address his contract.
Baker is a one year rental to mediocrity.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:28 pm
JD – I’d take 317 PYPG. I think any Bucs fan would.
LOL the problem with holding an imaginary QB competition is the guy gets to play – and everyone gets to see it.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:43 pm
If the Baker Haters are saying that Trask has improved by “leaps and bounds” then why did he only throw for 218 yards against a high school defense last Saturday? 218 is NOTHING! If Baker is announced the starter, he’s not giving that position up. Trust me.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:46 pm
All of the people that are screaming mayfield sucks, are doing just that Screaming that Mayfield sucks! Why don’t you provide some reasoning as to why you think he sucks. What is it about him that you guys think makes him a bad QB ? Is it his arm strength ? His accuracy ? His height ? His decision making? What is it? I’m curious to know.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:51 pm
One game does not make a backup a starter, but dam Trask looks better the more he plays. It’s almost a crime he was so ignored during Brady’s term. For two years he was basically ignored. Now that Brady is gone he gets a little exposure in training camp and even more in two preseason games and “oh my god” who would have guessed that he can play quarterback!!! And look better than Maybefield!!!! Hats off to Trask for paying attention, studying the plays and working on his craft!!! So now the Bucs have to chose between a qb who has the history of an unreliable used car vs an ignored qb they drafted because he was tall, had a strong arm and excelled in a major football university!!! Shame on the Bucs for not giving him any exposure as an over the hill Tom Brady crashed and burned.
August 21st, 2023 at 3:53 pm
He’s flashed at least one season of being an above average starter. If we get something like that, and the defense is top 5, then we should be in the playoffs.
I’m trying to believe lol
August 21st, 2023 at 3:53 pm
@WyomingJoe you’re getting a little excited there guy. There’s no hate here.
I don’t watch college football. Never saw a Trask highlight til he was drafted. The fact remains he has the most upside out of the two. Besides your statement about Baker not giving up the starting position isn’t even historically accurate. He’s lost his starting position twice.
Additionally, 218 yards with a 70% completion rate at 11 yard per completion, with no turnovers, a TD, five drops by receivers, a struggling running game while under consistent pressure is a pretty good stat line for a QB. Preseason or not.
August 21st, 2023 at 4:07 pm
I’m definitely cheering for either QB that starts and it certainly sounds like it’s Mayfield. From my perspective, they’ve looked fairly equal. KT is throwing a better deep ball and Mayfield looks better within 10 yards to me. I never dreamed before camp that I would say this, but I think they should start Trask. I think his ceiling is much higher than Mayfields, and I was right there with you Joe. I never thought with his rainbow passes he’d ever turn into anything. He certainly could still be a flop, but he would also help us with the salary cap next year vs Mayfield if he had a good season.
August 21st, 2023 at 4:11 pm
@wyomingjoe…it’s not like Trask had starters out there all game either. What kind of stat line do you need with camp meat running all around you?
August 21st, 2023 at 4:16 pm
Bowles….Mayfield….Playoffs…Yougottabekiddingme.
August 21st, 2023 at 4:22 pm
Trask had a pretty darn good game. I would like to believe that Bowles saw that and decided to put him right back in. He could just as easily put Baker in, but why? Trask looked dam good and deserved to play it out. And he finished strong! It’s almost a crime he got so little attention for b 2 years!
August 21st, 2023 at 4:52 pm
Smoothbayrider – Reasons why I don’t want Mayfield to start.
He has a losing starting record 33-39 in 69 games.
He has thrown the most INT’s since being drafted.
He takes too many sacks.
He has too many passes batted at the line.
He has a history of immaturity and fractured relationships with former teammates and coaching staff ( people can grow and change but it’s still a consideration).
No relevant history of being able elevate the players around him.
He’s posted a career average of a 45 QBR which is means he’s only been expected to win 7 games as a starter on average over the six seasons he has been in the NFL.
The past two seasons his total QBR reflects being expected to win between 4-6 games a year.
He’s not under contract next year.
Regardless of his charasmatic personality. He’s a below average QB.
Whereas Trask is unproven and mostly unknown as a pro but has way more potential and upside from my perspective.
The Bucs invested a 2nd round pick
Great height and he has great accuracy.
He also has a history of rising to the occasion, and has shown lots of progress while actually being coached up.
He’s under contract next year so there’s no contentious negotiations ahead if he’s successful this year which earns him a two year window to build his case to be the Bucs QB of the future.
If he fails completely in 2023 you draft a QB for the future in 2024.
Mayfield is known as a below average QB and the obvious path to years of mediocrity at best. Trask is the path to the future whether he’s it or a 1st round QB.
August 21st, 2023 at 4:56 pm
For those of you who like to use QBR as a stat. Please Stop!!!!!
Bucs QB #3 2018
11G 64.6 Comp% 2992yds 19TD 14INT
66.2 QBR
Matt Ryan 2018
16G 69.4 Comp% 4924yds 35TD 7 INT
65.7 QBR
If somebody on here is smarter than me and can make sense of this, please enlighten me.
August 21st, 2023 at 4:58 pm
With what was left playing at the time to Play Gabbert at all would be equal to playing Baker in the Second half of the Jets game.
Wah Wah. All I had was DJ Moore.
Panthers went 1-4 with Mayfield, McCaffery, and Moore.
Panthers went 6-6 once Mayfield and McCaffery were gone.
McCaffery did real well after the trade. Nothing wrong with him.
Chicago was happy to get Moore. How did Panther’s get the #1 Pick again?
What’s left.
Moore had 3 straight 1000 yard years before 2022 and ended up with 888. I guess that’s all on Darnold and Walker.
First 5 Games with Baker Moore had 17 receptions for 197 yards. That’s on pace to get 680 for the year. Way to use those weapons. Evans sure must be feeling good about his streak.
Stats are stats and made Baker look so good at Oklahoma they gave him the Heisman and #1 pick. Unfortunately he has not been giving back in production much lately. All I see is him giving discounts to keep a job.
August 21st, 2023 at 4:59 pm
JD–Last I heard Gabbert was playing QB behind Mahomes, for the Chiefs.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:03 pm
Blankenship has been cut.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:11 pm
The name Statgeeks says it all. If you think numbers and stats defines everything, then we need to call them the Statgeek Idiots
August 21st, 2023 at 5:17 pm
Could it be BM played in offenses not suited to his strengths? His college highlights are rife with out of pocket plays. He’s not a pocket passer. Canales was around Wilson who thrives outside the pocket. Wilson was left in the pocket in Denver and we saw how that worked. If Canales’ offense is designed around a mobile QB and BM gets back to who he was in college, we may all be happy.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:25 pm
@Old Sombrero He played in 3 different offenses in his first 3 seasons. He went to the playoffs in his 3rd season and got hurt in his 4th.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:25 pm
@Smoothbay rider – sacks are a big factor in that stat. So I would say the biggest difference between Matt Ryan and Jameis that year is Matt Ryan took 42 sacks compared to Jamies having 27.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:26 pm
It could just be that he hasn’t had enough time in one particular offensive system. Whatever system that may be.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:30 pm
@A Bucs Fan . Matt Ryan also played 16 games to Jameis’ 11 games. If QBR accounts for total sacks and not sacks per game, then that is just stupid. 42 in 16 games is 2.6 sacks per game and 27 in 11 is 2.4 sacks per game.
That doesn’t make sense.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:32 pm
@A Bucs fan
42 in 16 games is 2.62 sacks per game.
27 in 11 games is 2.45 sacks per game.
Doesn’t make much sense.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:33 pm
Bowles plan is to play field position and hope his defense can win the game. He want his offense to average 17 points a game with no offense turnovers. That was the formula used against the Jets. Mayfield may get the starting job. However, he is known to have a 2 to 3 turnovers per game. Unless he eliminates the turnovers he won’t be the starter for long.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:39 pm
Can the stat geeks explain Mayfield out of already leading a much worse CLE team to the playoffs then?
August 21st, 2023 at 5:45 pm
@ MadMax
I saw that too… I wonder who the Bucs are going to bring in?
Probably another DB or maybe WR since Gage is now on IR.
August 21st, 2023 at 5:49 pm
They are myopic… you can look at some bad stats sure but nothing is in a vacuum. Did they control for the other personnel he was playing with and what kind of dysfunctional teams? Nope.
August 21st, 2023 at 6:01 pm
Maybefield sucked that’s what he did and he still does. Only a miracle will turn his career around.
August 21st, 2023 at 6:13 pm
WyomingJoe Says:
August 21st, 2023 at 3:43 pm
If the Baker Haters are saying that Trask has improved by “leaps and bounds” then why did he only throw for 218 yards against a high school defense last Saturday?
The question is: “Why did Mayfield pass for only 66 against a lesser defense?”
August 21st, 2023 at 6:23 pm
AtlBuc Says:
The question is: “Why did Mayfield pass for only 66 against a lesser defense?”
Because he only played 4 series? Trask got to play almost the whole game, and put up most of his numbers after the Jets put in their 4th and 5th string guys. Wolford was carving up the Jets 5th string too. That’s why they are 5th string.
Trask also chucked an int and generally looked terrible against that ‘lesser defense’, despite having the same receivers and line Mayfield did.
August 21st, 2023 at 6:29 pm
Rather have winston over mayfield rn i wish the bucs woulda let winston sit behind tom brady for 3 years like he did with breas smh im pretty sure he woulda been ok with it
August 21st, 2023 at 6:32 pm
Old Sombrero Says:
August 21st, 2023 at 5:17 pm
If Canales’ …..BM gets back to who he was in college, we may all be happy.
What an aspiration for a professional QB; to play like he did in college. I thought players are supposed to improve once they enter the league. Perhaps therein lies the problem. I don’t see where Mayfield has improved since coming into the league. Interestingly, We saw Geno Smith improve under Canales. We saw Trask improve over the summer under Canales but, I haven’t heard anyone say that Baker has improved.
Perhaps his work ethic isn’t disposed for improvement. For instance, while Trask was spending his summer working out and throwing to receivers, Mayfield was wining and dining and playing golf with linemen.
I guess he was used to spending his summers making commercials.
August 21st, 2023 at 6:33 pm
Kudos to Trask. He improved. He played one good half of NFL football with a backup offensive line against a bunch of backups from the Jets. Not exactly a big sample. Baker, he has been up and down. He had one year in which he clearly excelled. Another year following when he regressed and then he was discarded by a GM who was going for broke, signing his version of the Tom Brady phenomenon.
He went to Carolina and was given the starting job with only training camp, no spring practices. He failed the test. I’m not sure any have succeeded under those circumstances but the sample is so small why bother to dig up other cases. The guy who replaced Baker in Cleveland tried to come back last year with no training camp and having sat out 11 or 12 games. He played horribly. Those who say we know what Baker is assume what he showed in Carolina is valid. Certainly, it is a data point and we will soon see whether it should be taken seriously. Honestly, I don’t know. But what he showed against Pittsburgh was way better than what would one should expect from someone critics on this board refer to as “Trash.” If you want to write off the season, you start immediately with Trask. He certainly has upside. But he also is little more than any rookie quarterback with no experience. Is that fair to the veteran players who have a strong drive to show that the success under Brady was not all Brady. I don’t think so. I agree that the buccaneers treated Trask very badly and failed to give him proper training the past two years. That was wrong, though it was simply a matter of circumstances. I don’t think you correct that by making him the first string QB. He deserves better than what he has being given but the right decision at this moment is Baker Mayfield. I am eager to see what he’s got and I’m rooting for him. If he fails, I will root for Trask.
August 21st, 2023 at 6:46 pm
Old Sombrero Says
Could it be BM played in offenses not suited to his strengths
Took the time to go back and get a look of where Bakers Interceptions were from. I figured I would take a look and give it some consideration.
Went back to the beginning. All Mayfield Interceptions at Oklahoma.
First 4 or 5 were quick passes. 3-5 yard ins. Don’t have to move for those. Had no obstructions and simply threw it to the wrong guy.
Sorry watching was just too brittle. Rather have a root canal.
I hope you are right. Way I see it he’s either rolling left or rolling right and the tight end pulls most of the time. If he cannot get outside of the tackles he’s going to have a long hard day for about 4-6 weeks.
August 21st, 2023 at 6:49 pm
Well said Buddha
August 21st, 2023 at 7:53 pm
I am in a stats business and i can tell you they can lead you to disaster. Good ole human intuition i as much more accurate. Stat geeks loved The new Browns QB and his team was 4-12 his last full season. Go with Baker with Trask in reserve.
August 21st, 2023 at 8:01 pm
Old Sombrero Says
Could it be BM played in offenses not suited to his strengths
Couldn’t stomach watching Baker throw interception after interception to see if throwing from the pocket was the cause.
Instead I watched the Seattle Highlights of 2021 of Russel Wilson. 90 plus percent of his highlight were throws from the pocket.
His problem in Denver was not being in the pocket it was he did not have receivers like Lockett and Metcalf to get separation on their routes.
Don’t know who the receivers were in 2022 @ Denver but if he sucked all the money out of the till then the receivers had to be pretty bargain basement.
August 21st, 2023 at 8:45 pm
I keep seeing the Baker Mayfield lead the Browns to a playoff win if that means something. I guess Nick Foles was the reason why Philly won the super bowl. I guess every team should be going after Nick Foles lol 🤣🤣🤣 . I guess Mitchell Trubisky should be the starter in Pittsburgh because he went 14-2 in Chicago. I guess the bucs really need to go get Mitchell Trubisky because the bears went 14-2 with him at quarterback lol 🤣🤣🤣!!! This fan base is crazy to me . Why not sign Baker Mayfield to a 200 million dollars contract because Cleveland won a playoff game with him at quarterback 3 years ago forget this being his 4th team in 6 years because Cleveland won a playoff game with him playing quarterback lol 🤣🤣🤣!!
August 21st, 2023 at 9:00 pm
My point was if Mayfield is in a system that benefits his skill set he may do better than people think. I don’t know what the system looked like in Cleveland. He had a running game behind him which helps. Ironically his Rams highlights are from a clean pocket. The league isn’t a drop back league anymore. Brady was the last drop back passer with Burroughs the next closest. At least Mayfield can move the pocket and he tends to do a decent job when improvising.
August 21st, 2023 at 9:08 pm
First, as everyone here will attest, Baker is no Tom Brady. The problem with him at Carolina and even his last year with the Browns was that they tried to make him play like he was. I watched every game he played with the Browns before they decided to sell their souls for the pervert (which is why this life-long Browns fan is now watching TB and ANYBODY BUT CLEVELAND). His rookie year he succeeded DESPITE Hue the QB whisperer…. who wanted him to play from the pocket. Freddie K was in WAY over his head, and his offense was a confused muddle. First year with Stefanski – they had BM playing like he did for Lincoln Riley, and they went to the playoffs for the first time in 30 years, and beat Pittsburgh bad, and had KC on the ropes.
The next year BM got hurt in the 2nd game, and then again in the 5th. But they tried to keep him playing. His “great” O-Line that year only played 6 quarters together…the whole season. At least one of the tackles was on the shelf for every other quarter, and against the Jets they started a center and 4 guards. But that’s Baker’s fault.
So they ship him off to Carolina. No pre-snap motion, no play action, almost no rollouts… just empty backfields and pocket “protection”…and he flamed out. But when they brought in PJ Walker, all of those things were back in the offense. Its almost like Carolina didn’t want BM to make the numbers, which would have meant they had to pay more for him. So, not surprised he looked like crap in Carolina.
But look at his games with the Rams, with a coach who understood his strengths (and his weaknesses). Even with almost no talent on the field, he played very, very well. And yes, they wanted to keep him, but he wanted to start, and they are paying big money for Matt Stafford… so he moved on.
IF (BIG IF) Canales can go to school on Lincoln Riley, and channel some of McVay’s magic, Baker can be very successful. IF they try to go old school, drop back, no motion, no play action, pocket passing, he’ll be a disaster. A run game wouldn’t hurt either.
I watched Trask play… he’s a decent backup QB with very little upside (sorry FLA fans… just cause he’s your hometown guy… can’t see it). He clearly has progressed this season, but Wolford is a better QB. Maybe in a few years, he’ll be just slightly better than average.
PS: I coach football, and my brother does, and my father won over 300 games in HS and coached on 9 national championship teams for Div III… I understand a thing or two about the game, unlike many on here.
August 21st, 2023 at 9:16 pm
@LANShark. First sensible post I’ve seen on here in a while.
August 21st, 2023 at 10:12 pm
Tannenhill is light years ahead of Baker. Baker is about where McCoy is except id take a heathy McCoy over Baker all day.
August 21st, 2023 at 10:15 pm
The Playoff game Baker “won” wasnt because of Baker. It was the Steelers shooting themselves in the foot early in that game. Baker just rode the wave , go back and watch the game.
August 21st, 2023 at 10:52 pm
Steelers Fan– what was Baker’s line in that game? And how about the CLE defensive collapse in the second half that Mayfield had to keep ahead of when the Browns let PIT back into the game as they always did? It was 47-38 and Mayfield threw 3 TDs.
Gtfo.
For a supposed “Steeler Fan” you’ve been posting on a Buc’s blog for months and championing Trask. Which of your fake profiles is real?
August 21st, 2023 at 11:31 pm
Stat geeks don’t like him because of his turnover stat. You know the most important one.
August 22nd, 2023 at 9:13 am
I’m done with this argument if Baker Mayfield is the starter we have to just roll with him and hope for the best. I don’t think he earned it I know he was gifted the starting job but it ain’t nothing we can do about it. So I hope he plays well and we win or we to many games to draft a quarterback in the first round. I still believe Kyle Trask got miss treated and lied to from the start. Not only him but the fan base as well was lied to by the bucs coaching staff and GM . And Joe knew the whole time it wasn’t a real competition but they talked liked it was.