No Telling What May Happen
August 25th, 2023
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield.
It’s almost a universal belief outside of Florida that Baker Mayfield will implode at quarterback and Kyle Trask is little more than a valet waiting to hand the keys to the Bucs franchise to Drake Maye or another college quarterback next spring.
And trust Joe, Mayfield haters and Trask non-believers reside from Hudson to Winter Haven and down to Venice, too.
Albert Breer of SI.com hears them all and, trying to be objective, he says he doesn’t know who to believe because all the arguments for and against Bucs success this season make some sense. Breer noted this while answering a mailbag question from a Bucs fan.
From Bucmike (@freakshowmike): Honest thoughts on the Bucs?
A good layer of foundation pieces, but the consequence of carrying all the dead money this year (which, by the way, is the right thing for them to do) is that if they have a couple of injuries in the wrong places, they could be in trouble fast.
Remember, there are a ton of championship-proven players there that have a lot of pride and aren’t real interested in hearing about having a reset year. So if healthy, who knows?
Breer makes a pretty good point. If God forbid Mike Evans or Chris Godwin goes down, this offense would take a huge hit and become much more one-dimensional. Until proven otherwise, Joe doesn’t believe the Bucs have the backfield horses to get decent production if defenses are gunning to stop the run.
Likewise, an injury or two to the offensive line and Mayfield will need hazard bonuses.
Joe thinks the defense will be good and possibly damn good.
August 25th, 2023 at 10:14 am
Outside Joe Headquarters I can assure you!
August 25th, 2023 at 10:19 am
We went from Tom Brady to a sorry as quarterback. Now I know how New England Patriots fans felt
August 25th, 2023 at 10:23 am
Again. Can Canales fix his career problem with interceptions. He didn’t so far in training camp. Why does everyone think this is fixed. If Bowles is ok with turnovers why not sign Winston he has a bigger upside than Mayfield. I hope the BUCS coaches know what they are doing.
August 25th, 2023 at 10:24 am
Gaytor bois are still sad
August 25th, 2023 at 10:24 am
I still say Baker Mayfield can become the ” Drew Brees ” for the Bucs. Whether he will or not, only time will tell. The beginning of each of their careers is similar. The Brees/Peyton relationship clicked. I see the same with Mayfield/Canales.
August 25th, 2023 at 10:27 am
“… but the consequence of carrying all the dead money this year (which, by the way, is the right thing for them to do)…”
.
.
But we aren’t carrying all of the dead money this year. There is still a good fat chunk pushed over the next couple of years with void clauses. We sucked up just about all we could this year without totally dumping talent, but we aren’t through, if we want to get back to pre-brady balanced budget.
August 25th, 2023 at 10:32 am
This “low key” tanking speculation is total BS……we spent all of our cap money…..didn’t trade any player, resigned LVD & Dean…..didn’t trade draft picks except next year’s 5th to pick up Palmer…..
Spent all we had bringing in Mayfield.
What part of that is “low key” tanking?
August 25th, 2023 at 10:44 am
‘Until proven otherwise, Joe doesn’t believe the Bucs have the backfield horses to get decent production if defenses are gunning to stop the run.’
Hard to disagree with that one Joe, BUT … IF defenses are ‘gunning to stop the run’ (which I have difficulty seeing happen until we show that we can actually run the ball), I have to believe this Bucs’ offense under Canales can find a way to take advantage of that (play-action, whatever). It’s all about being unpredictable IMO. If the offense is too predictable, it’s toast. If the defense is too predictable, any decent QB can take advantage of that.
But last season I saw times when opponents only rushed 3 and STILL stopped the run. The 2022 Bucs were the poster children for ‘predictability’. I’m still convinced that play design and play-calling is the best way to be unpredictable.
August 25th, 2023 at 10:57 am
Super Bowl here we come……
August 25th, 2023 at 10:58 am
I think O-line / RB are the main question marks at starting positions/depth, along with QB of course, and then probably the secondary more so in depth. I like Zyon as a backup outside CB tho.
WR for sure no studs after our top 2 but hopefully Palmer can be that guy. I think we have decent #3/4 type guys in general
August 25th, 2023 at 11:02 am
Quarterbacks on bad teams tend to throw more pics because they’re always trying to come back from a huge deficit, there’s only so much you can write into that
August 25th, 2023 at 11:02 am
Jack Clark Says:
August 25th, 2023 at 10:19 am
We went from Tom Brady to a sorry as quarterback. Now I know how New England Patriots fans felt.
^^^^^^^^
Would it kill you to see how the season goes before whining about it in advance?
August 25th, 2023 at 11:04 am
Joe: “If God forbid Mike Evans or Chris Godwin goes down, this offense would take a huge hit and become much more one-dimensional.”
—————————————————————————————-
We may have enough depth amongst our WR’s to survive this, but I certainty don’t want to have to find out one way or the other. Evans and Godwin should both have great years if they remain healthy.
I’d be even more concerned though if we lost someone to injury in positions where we have less depth. If we lost Hainsey and Jensen still can’t play we might be screwed.
August 25th, 2023 at 11:16 am
The most interesting thing to me this season, particularly early on, is to see how the offense unfolds. Clearly we haven’t seen what it’s really going to be. It’s been pretty vanilla so far and I don’t believe it will stay that way. May take some time, but hopefully it comes together. In the meantime, we have to hope the defense keeps us in games.
August 25th, 2023 at 11:16 am
Since76 … ‘Can Canales fix his (Baker Mayfield) career problem with interceptions.’
Maybe we’re all making a little too much of Baker’s ‘interception problem’. His career interception rate is 2.8% over 5 years. For comparison …
o Justin Herbert … 1.4%
o Patrick Mahomes … 1.6%
o Tom Brady … 1.8%
o Jalen Hurts … 1.8%
o Russell Wilson … 1.9%
o Derek Carr … 2.0%
o Joe Burrow … 2.0%
o Dak Prescott … 2.0%
o Trevor Lawrence … 2.1%
o Kyler Murray … 2.1%
o Matt Ryan … 2.2%
o Drew Brees … 2.3%
o Josh Allen … 2.3%
o Matthew Stafford … 2.4%
o Joe Montana … 2.6%
o Peyton Manning … 2.7%
o Baker Mayfield … 2.8%
o Dan Marino … 3.0%
o Troy Aikman … 3.0%
o John Elway … 3.1%
o Jameis Winston … 3.4%
What I see in looking up their stats is that ‘the old-timers’ (Elway, Aikman, Marino, Manning, Montana, etc) threw considerably more INTs than their modern-day counterparts. Today’s ‘franchise QBs’ seem to average around 2.0% INTs, whereas the ‘old-timers’ averaged closer to 3.0%. I would’ve thought it’d be the other way around: that today’s defenses are much more sophisticated and thus SHOULD get more INTs, especially since today’s teams pass much more.
I suspect that a lot of the reason is that the short passing game has been perfected by successful teams like the Chiefs, and QB completion rates have increased considerably as a consequence. For his part, Baker had a 2.9% INT rate with Cleveland, but only a 1.6% INT rate with the Rams. Very much different offense. HOPEFULLY that’s the Baker who we’ll see this year.
August 25th, 2023 at 11:56 am
Defense Rules Says:
Since76 … ‘Can Canales fix his (Baker Mayfield) career problem with interceptions.’
Those rates are based on number of passes. Very low chance of an interception on a screen. He’s is right in line as far as that goes.
I think where people get the impression he has a problem with picks is TDs to INT’s
With Rams for every 2 TD’s he threw a pick. Carolina for Every TD he threw a pick. Last two years in CLV he was 1.3/1 and 1.09/1
Harder to Win when you throw a 60 yard TD and then a Pick 6 on the next drive.
>>>>>Baker will do much better this year. <<<<<
Yes that positivity is per It's Raining Again's suggestion that I purge the hate from my Heart.
August 25th, 2023 at 12:09 pm
@Defense Rules
Interception rates have been dropping over the years as NFL rule changes have opened up the passing game. Today, the INT% rates are lower than 10 years ago, and those are lower than 20 years ago, and so on. Hence, you can’t compare Mayfield’s 2.8% INT% rate today to Montana, Manning, Marino, Aikman, Elway, etc., guys who played under different rules. But, you CAN compare Mayfield’s 2.8% INT% rate today to active NFL quarterbacks … and it’s BAD … STATMUSE has Mayfeld’s INT% rate at 37th out of 50.
August 25th, 2023 at 12:26 pm
For us to have different results from last year, we’d have to have some improvements from last year. The offensive line doesn’t look any better. Quarterbacking certainly isn’t better. The head coach isn’t any better.
Are we basing all our hopes and dreams on Canales being the difference?
I’m as big a Bucs fan as any, but I kind of see the same team we had last year. Won’t be able to run, Mayfield having to convert 3rd-and-12s, and our defense getting tired.
I hope I’m wrong. But I’m probably not.
August 25th, 2023 at 12:35 pm
frozenbuc … ‘But, you CAN compare Mayfield’s 2.8% INT% rate today to active NFL quarterbacks … and it’s BAD … STATMUSE has Mayfeld’s INT% rate at 37th out of 50.’
Part of the point I was trying to make is that the SYSTEM that the QB plays in has a lot to do with the results that he gets. Jameis for instance was NOT a good choice to run BA’s Bombs Away attack. Tom Brady on the other hand was a great choice, well, until the OLine decided to take whole quarters off.
QBs like Wilson (1.9%) are a reflection of the system. Russell ran a bunch & capitalized on the short game (fewer INTs resulted?). Mayfield’s time in Cleveland was characterized by him having FOUR different OCs over his 4 years. Not exactly the ideal situation for a young QB to learn in. No guarantees, but HOPEFULLY he does better here under Canales.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:23 pm
Excellent, succinct, and on point from Breer.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:52 pm
Yogi Berra:
“Making predictions is really hard … especially about the future.”
Nobody knows squat. That’s why the play the games.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:54 pm
Ok guys the was good info and discussion on the interception problem. I think if Canales can get his ints down he could be decent. Maybe surprise us all. Really all we can do wait and see. Sink or swim.
August 25th, 2023 at 1:55 pm
I’m getting pretty sick of all the talk about Baker Mayfield’s interceptions over the last five years. The guy didn’t exactly have a stable environment to develop while in Cleveland and Carolina. I know, I know…all you Baker Haters say that the type of team environment and offense isn’t an excuse. But it certainly is! Baker did throw 64 INTs in his first 5 years, but guess who’s second with 60?? That’s right, the one and only Josh Allen. However, he’s played with the same coach and the same system those five years. Also, the HOF Kurt Warner threw 53 INTs his first 3 years playing. And he was 28 when he became a starter. Baker’s going to bounce back big this year but you Haters still won’t give him any credit. There’s something psychologically wrong with all you whiners.
August 25th, 2023 at 2:05 pm
“With Rams for every 2 TD’s he threw a pick. Carolina for Every TD he threw a pick. Last two years in CLV he was 1.3/1 and 1.09/1”
Wow, I guess you’re right. Because when you point it out like that those certainly aren’t great TD/INT numbers for Mayfield, who was playing against NFL starters. Unfortunately they are better than Trask’s TD/INT numbers, who was playing against guys who most likely will be selling cars at Brandon Ford in a few days. For every TD Trask has thrown, he has also thrown a pick. That’s 1.0/1.0
But I applaud you for your new positivity
August 25th, 2023 at 2:23 pm
“Last two years in CLV he was 1.3/1 and 1.09/1”
Those numbers did seem pretty atrocious, so I double checked just to make sure.
His last two years in CLE were 2020 and 2021. In 2020 he went 26/8 and in 2021 he played hurt and went 17/13. So that means his last two years in CLE he a TD/INT ratio of 43/21. Again I applaud the positivity but your numbers were just a wee bit off.
August 25th, 2023 at 2:51 pm
Wyoming. From a psycho whiner here. I don’t hate Baker. He has “HAD” a turnover problem. That’s what I hate. Not the man. I didn’t hate Winston. I hated his turn over problem. He was entertaining to watch just most of the time the entertainment was better for the other team. If Canales cleans that up a little he could be a decent starter.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:13 pm
Don’t tell me it’s raining Says:
“Last two years in CLV he was 1.3/1 and 1.09/1”
Thank you for correcting me. I was 100% wrong. Should have been 2019 and 2021. Seems like atrocious is a little harsh but you picked the description.
There was the 2020 year in between those where he played quite well. 2018 also.
August 25th, 2023 at 3:38 pm
Don’t tell me it’s raining Says:
“Last two years in CLV he was 1.3/1 and 1.09/1”
Yes Sir I was 100% wrong. Thank You for correcting me.
It should have been 2019 and 2021′ Atrocious seems a little harsh but you picked the description.
To Bakers credit he did play well in 2018 and 2020.
It was gallant for Baker to play hurt. I mean his Back Up was 2-0 in his absence. Was it necessary to play hurt? I mean a broken down back up kept the 72 Dolphins perfect until Greise returned. If itw as fear of being replaced I can understand it but it was to the detriment of the team and to me a little selfish.
August 25th, 2023 at 4:31 pm
D Cone, I actually agree you. Had it been my decision he would not have played the rest of the season. I also don’t know who makes the final call on that decision. The owners, the GM, the HC all have control over which QB starts and which QB wears a headset. So while I’m sure Baker, like any other warrior, preferred to fight through it, my understanding is those above his pay grade ultimately make those decisions. Just like I’m sure Trask wanted to be QB1 but that decision was made for him by someone above his pay grade. So no I don’t believe the player is going to override what the owner, GM, and HC decide.
August 25th, 2023 at 5:11 pm
Baker also said the off field stuff with money being stolen he has been dealing with for years now (back when he was playing hurt also and not playing well) and that he is in a much better headspace now and that it’s old news and a long time coming.
August 25th, 2023 at 5:25 pm
Mayfield will implode, I have zero doubt of that.
But Trask is a true wildcard, which is why it’s so disappointing that the Bucs are taking the certainty of a bad Mayfield.
Trask isn’t the same player he was when he was drafted, he actually learned how to throw with NFL velocity, and that was his biggest issue by far – those cupcake rainbow passes don’t work in the NFL. While the competition level has been low (he played against the Jets 2nd team defense, remember) he did everything you’d want him to do. He made good reads and was accurate. I want to see what Trask can do when he’s playing with Evans and Godwin and the starting offensive line. I don’t think he’s special or anything, but I want to see him either crash in burn, or not.
With Mayfield, there is no question about what the eventual outcome of this will be. He’s had his playing time, and he’s been the worst QB in football over multiple years now. I’m not sure why anyone would have any faith in him. Even if he improved, he’s still going to be like the 27th best QB, there’s no upside.
August 25th, 2023 at 5:51 pm
Don’t tell me it’s raining Says
I actually agree you. Had it been my decision he would not have played the rest of the season
We can add he has Grit to Moxie on his list of attributes.
As this post is ‘ No Telling What May Happen’ Could be a 2020 Baker. Could be a 2022. I would be pleased as punch with a Playoff Berth this season.
Just so you know my reply started as trying to explain to someone that it was TD/INT and not INT per attempt or completion. Also to do so without going out of my way to as you say cast shade.
Good advice is Good advice regardless of where it comes from and I am making an attempt to put yours into practice. Perhaps it does come down to coaching and scheme. Thanks.
August 25th, 2023 at 6:35 pm
DR
1.6% with the Rams because he threw for no yards basically.
That’s not going to work in Tampa.
August 25th, 2023 at 7:58 pm
Defense,
Winston was a bad fit for BAs offense?
Was he Better with Sean Peyton’s short game offense?
Tom Brady was criticized by everyone for throwing short underneath passes and timing throws. The 1000 posts that claimed if Winston goes so to does the 4000k yds a year production. When Brady came in it took awhile for him to think down field.
Winston should have succeeded in BAs offense. He is not accurate enough for a west coast offense. Brady allegedly didn’t have the arm strength to drive the ball deep.
Just thinking your post was more a post mortem analysis
August 25th, 2023 at 11:11 pm
We got Mayfield at Goodwill.
August 26th, 2023 at 12:31 am
Rod ,
Baker has not been the worst QB for years now.
Last year, ranked 36 2021 final ranking: 25 | 2020: 11 | 2019: 24 | 2018: 12
I’m seeing two years of him ranked 11th and 12th best QB in the league.
Hardly the worst