“Classic Trap” And 7.74 Wins
August 28th, 2023
Caught in a trap?
The chanting you heard in downtown St. Petersburg today had nothing to do with the approaching Hurricane. It was all about a high priest addressing his minions on the State of the Buccaneers.
Joe’s referring to The PFF tribe and Sam Monson, the top witch doctor of the notorious stats outfit Pro Football Focus. Some fans drool over the PFF gospel, so Joe is at least intrigued when the PFF Tribe is not assigning grades and pretending to be an expert on every play.
Monson lectured about how the Bucs are caught in a “classic trap” this season because they have a strong roster but a below average quarterback. That’s a recipe for being stuck in the mud in the NFL standings, he said, as in not bad enough to draft the desired quarterback.
Further study from Monson and his co-host priest led them to agree the Bucs have a “range of outcomes” when it comes to predicting their record. The Bucs are a tough call, they said, and did not offer a season prediction today. But they did share that their data models call for the Bucs to win 7.74 games.
Overall, the tribesman aren’t too down on the Bucs’ young offensive line but they are down on linebacker Devin White’s game film and Todd Bowles’ game management, highlighted by the debacle in Cleveland last season.
One theory floated was the Bucs/Bowles approach should be more aggressive now because his team is an underdog and Baker Mayfield has the receivers to be successful taking shots. Joe agrees. Receiver remains the strength of the roster.
Like it is for most teams, the Bucs’ O-line is a massive X-factor.
The PFF high priest noted that Mayfield didn’t respect Browns left tackle Greg Robinson (2018 and 2019) and too often shifted or sprinted right because he didn’t trust his blind side.
The Bucs’ move of Tristan Wirfs to left tackle, Monson speculated, was partly to soothe Mayfield.
Robinson never played again after the 2019 season, which he followed up with a drug arrest and a conviction.
August 28th, 2023 at 4:04 pm
Wasn’t wirfs told at the end of season meetings that he would probably be moving to the left side?
August 28th, 2023 at 4:12 pm
What I have seen for the past three pre-season games have given me hope.
Mayfield knows this is the end of the line, so he is really paying attention to his own play. We will get his absolute best, but if that isn’t enough we can see if Trask can turn into more.
The kicker, though, is how badly S.I. is regarding the Bucs. They are both a blessing and a curse. They curse those they say will be good and bless those they say will be bad.
Monson always takes the safe side, too. His 7.74 wins should actually be the bottom of their possible range. There is too much talent on this team for them to tank to replace Hot Toddie, though his wanting to turn over the DC hat can only help him.
August 28th, 2023 at 4:12 pm
At least the 7.74 games prediction is more than the 6 Vegas is predicting
August 28th, 2023 at 4:14 pm
With a top 10 defense, a top 15 running game and solid special teams I could see the Bucs winning 7-9 games.
I could also make a case for the Bucs to win only 3-4 games…
So many questions with this team and injuries will play a major part due to our very thin depth on this roster.
August 28th, 2023 at 4:29 pm
9-8 or 10-7
Bucs are a good bet to have a winning season IMO….
August 28th, 2023 at 4:35 pm
24 pts/game =10 wins
18-20 pts/ game = 6 wins
Sustain drives, no turnovers, score points – winning season
3 and outs will lead to losing time of possession and turnovers and losing season.
August 28th, 2023 at 4:50 pm
We were 24th in scoring offense / 9th in scoring defense. If we can improve to average on offense and top 5 defense we should be a playoff team easy.
The pass rush should be a lot better I hope
August 28th, 2023 at 4:53 pm
What about C Jake Hanson? I haven’t heard much about him since he got banged up in 2022 but he is young and seems to have some talent there. Could be a cheap sign if he is healthy?
August 28th, 2023 at 5:01 pm
Yeah, tell us something we don’t know….
I SURE HOPE Mayfield FINALLY has his shat together or otherwise I Hope he’s Out of there QUICK so we can find out what we have in Trask. And if neither guy is the answer then the win total NEEDS to be low so we can Draft a Fantastic Possibility.
The middle of the road is UN EXCEPTABLE. Either ALL or Nothing! Personally I’m well Tired of Crap! Playoffs or Bust! Or Get Out of the Way!
August 28th, 2023 at 5:03 pm
A 7/8 win record is NOT GONNA GETTER DONE! UN EXCEPTABLE!
August 28th, 2023 at 5:04 pm
In FACT it’s the WORSE CASE scenario…. No Thanks
August 28th, 2023 at 5:07 pm
If we end up 7-10 or so…..we’ll need to just pony up the draft picks necessary to get a QB….it;s done all the time by other teams…..
August 28th, 2023 at 5:08 pm
My problem with licht lately is he knows he has a really good roster. What’s holding it back is quarterback.
You already have a winning roster trade up to get a guy to solidify the position for the next decade or more. Only plug and play draft positions are on the O line and running back maybe they roster is just waiting for a quarterback. Sometimes he is a fool when it comes to the draft
August 28th, 2023 at 5:16 pm
There’s nothing in Bowles history as a HC that would make anyone believe he’ll guide us to 10+ wins. He always manages to “not lose”….the dude didn’t trust the GOAT against Cleveland, I don’t see him being more aggressive with Mayfield. Mayfield has more INTs than anyone in the league since being drafted.
August 28th, 2023 at 5:20 pm
Six wins.
August 28th, 2023 at 5:21 pm
Hate to break it to you but the Bucs aren’t winning a Super Bowl this year so I guess it’s nothing.
As far as you being tired of crap, ummm, you do realize the Bucs won a Super Bowl not that long ago right? It’s been a pretty good run the past 3 years.
August 28th, 2023 at 5:40 pm
“Pewter Power Says:
August 28th, 2023 at 5:08 pm
My problem with licht lately is he knows he has a really good roster. What’s holding it back is quarterback.
You already have a winning roster trade up to get a guy to solidify the position for the next decade or more. Only plug and play draft positions are on the O line and running back maybe they roster is just waiting for a quarterback. Sometimes he is a fool when it comes to the draft”
IMO if you’re going to call a guy a fool at least say who he should have drafted.
B Young or CJ Stroud? The cost would have been astronomical.
August 28th, 2023 at 5:46 pm
Yeah, No I’ve been deserted island and have No Clue. I think you can surmise that I’m speaking of what seemed like a Hundred years before Brady came along for what equaled a flash in the pan quick minute…
If you can’t figure out what I mean I’ll help You Remember the HE!! that WE ALL SUFFERED THROUGH for WELL OVER A DECADE! Not to Mention the HE!! we ALL WENT THROUGH FOR “ALL DECADES” before That Flash in the Pan. You picking up what I’m putting down there D Rome?
DO I KNOW… REALLY DUDE
NOT interested in a Crap to Mediocre football existence Any More! I WANT TO COMPETE EVERY YEAR….
That IS the Bottom Line…
August 28th, 2023 at 6:06 pm
Lord Cornelius Says: IMO if you’re going to call a guy a fool at least say who he should have drafted.
2024 my dude! I think with the salary cap how it was this year I would have even been fine if they rolled with Trask. We’re not a playoff team and the organization knows it. We didn’t have enough juice to trade up but will next year !! so stop assuming. Fool is a strong word but so what
August 28th, 2023 at 6:15 pm
You mean just like last year !
August 28th, 2023 at 6:20 pm
Lord Cornealious, I couldn’t agree more. The Panthers really hamstrung themselves and I don’t think Young will thrive.
August 28th, 2023 at 6:43 pm
Hindsight 20/20 as a buc fan I would really enjoy it if Young sucks but let the guy actually play a regular season game. You can’t continue to be a gm and not take a chance on a quarterback or suck enough to earn the first overall pick. I’m sure the Glazers want the attention
August 28th, 2023 at 8:03 pm
11-6
August 28th, 2023 at 8:57 pm
So he’s a fool what he hasn’t done yet in the future lol
August 28th, 2023 at 9:00 pm
Improved defense, improved special teams, better offensive weapons, better offensive scheme, all we need is Mayfield to be average and we win 10+ games.
August 28th, 2023 at 9:24 pm
I don’t believe Baker can see over the Offense & D-lines in order throw the ball downfield… I see A LOT of ‘dink and dunk’ & LOTS of very frustrated receivers in our future. And, YES… Mixed with Bowls game management, Etc. will probably spell Biggggg TROUBLE. Plus, everyone tries to act-like this Canales was Seattle’s “Offensive Coordinator” – he was a just a Receivers, a QB-Coach, & some random Offensive Game Plan Manager or some bull jive… For like, 15-YEARS!!!! I’m very optimistic (more than most and especially with this division), but damnnnnn.
August 28th, 2023 at 9:55 pm
Don Cornelius has he ever traded up more than a couple spots ya goofball. He hasn’t done it up to this point so I wouldn’t expect him to change. You’re slow if you don’t know his history as our gm is hording picks not trading up. I’m starting to think you rode to school in the short bus with that tinted windows
August 29th, 2023 at 1:09 am
Despicable is the word I would use instead of classic!
Geez! Hope you didn’t pay this dude to spout his loser BS Joe!
Go Bucs!