Quit Dropping The Ball, Please
July 3rd, 2023
The PFF tribe investigates.
If this continues with Kyler Traskfield, you can safely wager the Bucs are drafting a quarterback on the first night of the draft next April.
Because the Bucs will likely have a losing record.
One of the Joes has no use for the PFF tribe. The other Joe thinks their stats are OK, but not their juvenile grades.
The tribe’s grades are dumb beyond reason but their stats are quite useful. Enough so that the PFF tribe has contracts with some NFL teams to do quality control (stat collecting).
The tribe’s Amelia Probst did a deep statistical dive on quarterbacks. Overall, Tom Brady had a solid if not good season last year, she noted. Except Brady was too often a victim of the dropsies.
Tom Brady led the league in passing yards on short targets. He also led the league in first-down conversions on short passes (110) but also had a league-high 20 passes dropped on those plays. …
Tom Brady led the league in attempts (523), completions (371) and passing yards (3,619) against zone coverage. He tallied 22 big-time throws to just 13 turnover-worthy plays, but he also had 22 passes dropped by his receivers.
So what was with all the drops? Generally, the Bucs have receivers with good hands.
Drops are not an official NFL statistic and are highly subjective. The PFF tribe isn’t the only outfit that tracks drops but the stats from one place to the next are all over the map.
One person’s drop is another man’s uncatchable ball.
Receivers, to a degree, could get away with some drops last year because it was Tom freaking Brady behind center. You know he’s going to make the next throw more likely than not.
This year? The Bucs have Traskfield. It’s a safe wager the Bucs won’t have Traskfield throw the ball 40 times a game unless they have to play catchup.
Therefore, each throw will mean more. And that means that the Bucs won’t be able to afford as many drops as Brady had to tolerate.
July 3rd, 2023 at 6:25 am
We’re def going QB….probably picking top 5 and I would wager trading up for the #1 for Caleb….i see it already. Then we’re going to wreak havoc baby!!!!
July 3rd, 2023 at 6:51 am
Bucs will win 9 or 10 depending on how the QB plays , but there will be none of the aforementioned if they stumble out of the gate, Bucs better pick the correct QB to start the year or it is all on Licht and Bowles if they start poorly.
July 3rd, 2023 at 7:47 am
MadMax Says:
July 3rd, 2023 at 6:25 am
We’re def going QB….probably picking top 5 and I would wager trading up for the #1 for Caleb….i see it already. Then we’re going to wreak havoc baby!!!!
^^^^^^^^^
Yeah, just like that scrub CB from LSU that you were so high on that didn’t get drafted.
July 3rd, 2023 at 7:49 am
Fascinating stats Joe. To be fair to our receivers though, Tom Brady was a master at putting the short passes especially where only a receiver with great hands could haul it in. This seemed to be particularly true for those dump-off passes to his RBs. Lenny Fournette really impressed me with his ability to pull some of those puppies (close to being) out of the dirt & still make positive yards. And it looked like a lot of those short passes were thrown at the speed of light too. Little wonder that TB12 had so few Pick-6s in his career.
July 3rd, 2023 at 8:03 am
Even Evans had more drops than usual last year. Scooter seemed to never catch a contested ball.
July 3rd, 2023 at 8:04 am
BTW Joe, Pro-Football-Reference has their own Dropped Passes stats & Percentage (under Advanced Team Stats) as I’m sure you already know. They only go back to 2018 unfortunately.
Looks like Brady averaged around 4.8% or so with us. Mahomes as a comparison seems to average around 5.2% or thereabouts.
Mayfield looks like he was around 6.0% or so with Cleveland. But to give him a slight break, several of his receivers really seemed to have the dropsies more than others.
July 3rd, 2023 at 9:11 am
Bucs opening possession at Carolina last year, Evans dropped a td pass- wasn’t the difference in the final score, but it definitely affected the momentum and tone of that game.
July 3rd, 2023 at 9:46 am
Drops are going to happen. I consider them a net positive when they are of the shorter verity. Meaning, they came short of the sticks.
Only reason I say that is, unless its first or second down. They do not hurt you because you’re still punting or turning the ball over on downs. On the flip side, if it happens on first or second down, you have another down or two to make it up. However, if a catch happens short of the sticks, chances are the next few plays are playing for the first down. OR you’re risking a turnover on the catch and run. A drop short of the sticks is always better than a pick.
Do you want the catch vs a drop every time. ABSOLUTELY, my point is the drop short of the sticks is overall, a net positive.
Same could be said for drops beyond the sticks. With the exception that first downs are the name of the game. Sure, the shorter pass gets you closer to a first down BUT it is not a first down. So, a drop beyond the sticks HURTs and it you mean you missed out on extending the drive.
I remember a several drops coming from our TEs short of the sticks, as well as WRs on bubble screens. If Traskfield can hit guys in stride beyond the sticks, I am not worried about drops. They are going to happen for all sorts of reasons.
To me, it’s an interesting stat but one that is not overly concerning outside of the big plays down the field. Like the Evans drop referenced above. Those everyone remembers well.
July 3rd, 2023 at 10:48 am
Joe mentions that PFF is garbage. PFF says Brady had a good year last year, thus proving that PFF is garbage. Good job, Joe. Brady was garbage last year.
July 3rd, 2023 at 12:12 pm
We’ve all seen how well Joe picks games in the NFL. He would lose his shirt if not his home if he actually wagered real money. Lesson: Don’t pay attention to his predictions. His job is to get hits and create controversy. He is good at that.
July 3rd, 2023 at 12:37 pm
^^^^asshole
Joe provides Buccaneer topics to us fans on a daily basis. What you do with the intel is on you. I appreciate a lens to think about my team through.
If you can do better, well, the web is your oyster.
July 3rd, 2023 at 1:34 pm
Wow, Joe will twist anything into a need to draft a quarterback next year. LMAO. Do I sense a lingering fear of Trask succeeding?
July 3rd, 2023 at 2:25 pm
“Because the Bucs will likely have a losing record this year.”
How do you call yourself a true Bucs fan, Joe? Already sound like you’re trying to tell us we’re back to the dumpster fire decade. Baker and Canalas could come in and put on a show, and easily have another chance at a NFC South title if so.
Gotta keep the faith brother…Especially before OTA.
July 3rd, 2023 at 5:17 pm
@Joeinmich…who was that? Hey, its hit and miss out here, but ive hit on A LOT more than ive missed pal!!
So what scrub cb from LSU?….hmmm, i dont remember pushing for us to get that one…enlighten me, or maybe you got me mixed up with someone else
July 4th, 2023 at 12:04 am
“It’s a safe wager the Bucs won’t have Traskfield throw the ball 40 times a game unless they have to play catchup.” – JBF
If Mayfield is starting, we will always be playing catchup.
That said, it MIGHT be the case with Trask too…but it sure would be nice to see at some point.
July 4th, 2023 at 12:08 am
SOEbuc Says
“Because the Bucs will likely have a losing record this year.”
How do you call yourself a true Bucs fan, Joe? Already sound like you’re trying to tell us we’re back to the dumpster fire decade. Baker and Canalas could come in and put on a show, and easily have another chance at a NFC South title if so.
. . . . . .
SOE, I feel ya.
I think it is great that you are able to hope like that…and I have always been the type to do so myself until the past couple years.
Especially this year. I would be more than happy for Mayfield to prove me wrong and accomplish something he doesn’t seem capable of…but until he does, there is no way I believe he can.
But…he’ll get his shot, certainly. I think he was always Bowles choice as starter. I do not think there was ever a true competition.
That said…I give Mayfield 6 games, tops. Then I think he will be yanked or injured.
And finally, we’ll truly see what Trask can do in live games.
July 4th, 2023 at 3:40 am
The answer is the question? Why? So many dropped balls. I think it’s the Brady method of starting early and maximizing your young talented scouts that search for investments for the the future. He’s a victim of his own screaming success. Not everyones passion can create such a copy cat night time routine.
July 4th, 2023 at 4:30 am
1.4 drops” per game?
Brady threw some bullets short to our guys last year that at that distance were all but uncatch-able. Evans uncharacteristically dropped some catch-able balls for sure last year…besides the sure TD one. Brady also threw some balls that were not meant to be caught by anyone accept our guy if he made a circus catch. So without knowing the criteria for a drop…
Subjective is correct.
Go Bucs!