Baker Mayfield = Sacks
July 25th, 2023
Sacks expected to jump?
Earlier this summer, Joe brought word how, for reasons unknown, the past two seasons Baker Mayfield’s sack numbers skyrocketed.
This is one of many reasons why so many statgeeks are revolted at the thought of the Bucs beginning their post-Tom Brady era with Mayfield behind center.
Now three years ago when the Bucs signed Brady, Joe vividly remembers former Bucs scout and Jets suit Pat Kirwan say on SiriusXM NFL Radio that the Bucs’ offensive line immediately improved greatly not so much because of warm bodies added to the line, but Brady was the best at making the right calls to put his front line in the best position to protect him.
As Warren Sharp typed in his “Warren Sharp 2023 Football Preview,” that protection Brady brought is now gone. And Mayfield is no Brady.
The loss of Brady will highlight the offensive line deficiencies. They not only struggled with run blocking but finished 25th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. Despite the line, Brady finished the season with an incredible 2.9% sack rate with over half of his sacks coming on third and fourth down. Baker Mayfield has a career sack rate of 9% which spiked at 11.9% last season in Los Angeles with a poor offensive line.
Now this is something Cam Jordan of the slimy Saints told Joe about at a Pro Bowl practice earlier this year –that Brady made a lot of offensive linemen money. But once they left New England, they suddenly turned mortal.
So this is something Joe will monitor. Is the offensive line going to slip without Brady having their backs?
July 25th, 2023 at 12:11 am
Licht’s brilliance continues. He knows TB12 helps the oline. So, he hires the most balanced run-pass OC so the Bucs don’t have to replace the GOAT.
July 25th, 2023 at 12:33 am
You got any more good news?
Maybe Canales can teach him to dispose of the ball, maybe? Given his china-doll rep…
July 25th, 2023 at 12:48 am
Can Trask manage the line? We’ll find out. Something to track.
July 25th, 2023 at 1:04 am
“Is the offensive line going to slip without Brady having their backs?”
NO
The offensive line will be much better this year than last. MUCH BETTER. Especially when it comes to opening some holes for the running game and thus providing a more balanced offense.
Scoring points is all that really matters at the end of the day. Bucs only managed 18 ppg in 2022 WITH Brady. Canales will get that bumped up to at least 22 or 23 ppg average WITHOUT Brady.
July 25th, 2023 at 1:35 am
No kidding the Rams had a “poor” offensive line!
They went through 4 QBs wasn’t it? Well 3 and Mayfield.. whom did get out of there alive. No wonder he (Mayfield) wanted out of there before he got his neck snapped!
July 25th, 2023 at 2:15 am
Mostly Peaceful GATOR Fan
No. He will certainly not start. Guys trying to compare percentage of Baker’s four starts to a dreadful LAR team to lucky to make GOAT team. Not to mention Brady is the GOAT of committing with OL and reading defense and we still went 8-5. I will love Brady for the rest of my life, but he certainly was not himself last year, no matter who you want to blame.
July 25th, 2023 at 3:22 am
He does hold the ball on too long as a QB and that’s a problem. Choking under pressure is not a good trait to have. He’s got a solid OL imo they’re young so penalties are gonna occur at first but by week 4-5 they should be no excuse from baker. Especially if the OC is smart they should have Ko Keift out there as an additional pass blocker. If Luke fails at RT by say week 4 he’s benched and we’re starting Cody Mauch at RT imo and then Nick Leverette and or Aaron Stinnie starts at RG the rest of the season. No excuse from mayfield. Has weapons more then most skilled QBs have right now. Has to be able to make plays and run the no huddle offense and read defenses better. Hold onto the ball better off protect the ball and run the offense be a better leader really. We know he can but is he going to fix this problem. He better it’s his last chance in the NFL IMO. Kyle is likely our backup Qb for the next few years imo.
July 25th, 2023 at 4:00 am
Umm yeah Brady got the ball out record fast last year.
Our guys better be prepared to pass pro!
Baker has been known to hold the ball to long.
Go Bucs!
July 25th, 2023 at 5:42 am
Sharp … ‘The loss of Brady will highlight the offensive line deficiencies. They not only struggled with run blocking but finished 25th in ESPN’s pass block win rate.’
Those were last year’s results. Different OLine this year = Different results.
July 25th, 2023 at 6:52 am
Amount of time from snap to throw is one the best parts of Brady with his ability to see the defense and know what they are giving him.
July 25th, 2023 at 7:01 am
Brady threw a bunch of dirt balls last year. He over threw his receivers often. Why? Because he sensed pressure and got rid of the ball too quickly not allowing the play to develop.
Yes it lead to a very good sack rate. But it was more self preservation as he didn’t want his 45 year old body to take a beating like Joe burrow.
Baker is more mobile and hopefully can use that to avoid some sacks and extend players that add great as Brady was, was not able to do anymore last year.
July 25th, 2023 at 7:54 am
I agree with Cana. Brady rushed his throws as quickly as possible. Often before his receivers finished their routes. Even big Mike was showing frustration at balls thrown prematurely and off target.
July 25th, 2023 at 7:56 am
“Those were last year’s results. Different OLine this year = Different results.”
True dat.
July 25th, 2023 at 8:55 am
Brady was sacked at a 4.8% rate for New England over his time there. He was sacked at 3.1% rate for Tampa and leading the league the last two seasons in a row… the only times in his career he led the league in that category. The line wasn’t nearly as bad as Brady’s desire to unload the ball and not get hit.
July 25th, 2023 at 9:02 am
This is why the “QB-friendly” offense is so important. It should mean quicker developing plays, which allows quicker reads, and provides outlets for the ball if pressure arrives. I’m still concerned about the O-line, but from everything I’ve heard from Canales, the guy understands how to make the most of what you’ve got. How quickly Canales adapts to being able to call plays during an actual game is another story, and the one that will likely determine if we are in a playoff race, or a #1 draft pick race.
July 25th, 2023 at 9:26 am
I don’t see how looking at last year’s O-line means anything. We have no one on this year’s O-line playing the same position as last year. His analysis is useless.
July 25th, 2023 at 9:31 am
Pickgrin
Didn’t see you for awhile but it’s great having you back! Always thoughtful posts and where appropriate backed up by great stats.
July 25th, 2023 at 9:44 am
Brady took few chances, throwing the ball into the ground or out of bounds. He was a shell of his 2020 self.
July 25th, 2023 at 10:04 am
Justin Fields … Baker Mayfield … Notice how “mobile” quarterbacks get sacked a lot? Notice how the lowest sack rate ever in a 500-pass-attempt-season belongs to Dan Marino, possibly the slowest QB of all time? Hmm. Why do all these “mobile” quarterbacks get sacked so much? I thought “mobile” was the future of the NFL, right? Maybe, what’s upstairs is more important than what’s downstairs?
July 25th, 2023 at 10:40 am
Logan Mankins says otherwise
July 25th, 2023 at 11:36 am
After watching Baker’s film from last season I would say blocked passes are more troubling than the sacks…
Especially when he was at Carolina – there were 3-4 blocked passes per game and afew of them were returned for TDs.
July 26th, 2023 at 7:18 pm
I remember Drew Brees at about the same size as Baker didn’t have his balls batted back in his face. Sorry, let me clarify, PASSES, batted back in his face.
At any rate there was a combination of him setting up passing lanes by his looks, his footwork, his line moving guys around and his scrambling ability but he didn’t run a lot, he’s move up in the pocket a ton and I thing he set that up, he learned how to do those things and I hope Canales helps him do that. I hope the best guy wins and both succeed with us.