Baker Mayfield And Catchable Balls
July 20th, 2023
Advanced stats.
Good news and bad news when trying to decipher what Baker Mayfield did in his short time with the Rams last year.
The Bucs like to point out how well Mayfield played. And while he didn’t make anyone forget Matt Stafford (or even Jared Goff), Mayfield showed signs of life playing for Rams offensive guru Sean McVay.
And with new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales being part of McVay’s sprouting coaching tree, it gives the Bucs and fans hope that Mayfield might turn around his career in Tampa.
Looking at advanced data from Sports Information Solutions, Mayfield has mostly hovered around 80 percent of his pass attempts being catchable balls. His high-water mark of 83 percent came in 2018, his rookie season with Cleveland.
But there was a blip last year. In his five Rams games, barely knowing the offense or the guys he was throwing to, Mayfield’s percentage of catchable balls spiked to 86 percent, the best of his career.
Yes, yes, yes. Joe can hear the spreadsheet types hollering “small sample size.” Joe gets it. But this small sample size makes Joe wonder what McVay did or saw in Mayfield to get him to throw accurately.
Mayfield’s on-target percentage with the Rams was the best it had been since 2020, when Mayfield and the Browns nearly upset the Chiefs on the road in the divisional round of the playoffs.
The bad news? Mayfield’s sack percentage with Los Angelese sailed to the highest of his career. Was this due to being thrown into the fire just hours after being signed by the Rams?
Perhaps the spike in on-target percentage and catchable balls — and knowing Canales plans to run an offense similar to McVay’s — is why the Bucs believed Mayfield was a wise and inexpensive roll of the dice.
July 20th, 2023 at 4:45 am
Joe … ‘In his five Rams games, barely knowing the offense or the guys he was throwing to, Mayfield’s percentage of catchable balls spiked to 86 percent, the best of his career.’
Gut feel is that what changed wasn’t so much Mayfield making more accurate throws with the Rams as it was McVay doing a better job of play design & scheming guys open, thus making everything Baker threw more ‘catchable’. SpongeBob didn’t excel in that department apparently. Hopefully Canales will.
July 20th, 2023 at 5:03 am
Fair.
July 20th, 2023 at 5:08 am
Plus the added sacks could be because he barely learned the offense. The fact that he took the sacks eating the ball is better then throwing it to the other team. In all that could be a good thing.
July 20th, 2023 at 6:29 am
Sacks could ALSO be they had so many injuries on their O line
July 20th, 2023 at 7:38 am
Joe says- And with new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales being part of McVay’s sprouting coaching tree, it gives the Bucs and fans hope that Mayfield might turn around his career in Tampa.
We don’t feel that way. We feel like Mayfield would make a decent backup quarterback.
July 20th, 2023 at 8:13 am
ATLBuc
WE? Don’t feel that way? “WE” feel Mayfield is a backup. I do not believe I’m the Lone Ranger here in saying that “I” certainly do not feel that way! I think Joe has expressed an opinion that does NOT indicate he feels that way.
Mayfield had tremendous success early on with the sorriest franchise in the league in Cleveland, taking them to the playoffs and winning a first round game and competing well against Mahomes’ Chiefs.
He hurt his shoulder ended up with the disaster that was the Panthers at the beginning of last year and finished with the wounded Rams.
My reservations revolve around his shoulder. If he’s truly healthy, he’s set to pull a Rich Gannon like revival. The Bucs have a revamped OL that is clearly better than last year’s. They retained two GREAT WR’s and have one of the best receiving RB’s in the league.
The only other “wild card” in the equation is Canales.
July 20th, 2023 at 8:30 am
StPete
There are some of you who wants Mayfield to start. But the “we” I’m referring to are fans that have seen Mayfield play and know that his appearance in the playoffs was because he had a couple of dudes in his backfield named Chubb and Hunt and a great defense.
The “we” I’m referring to also wants Trask to start because he has a higher ceiling than Mayfield and is our only chance of getting great play from the quarterback position this year.
July 20th, 2023 at 9:01 am
Really hope that someone on the team with power makes the right choice. I am loyal to the Bucs, not an individual player,.Now that ownership had the taste of a winning team, they will want to keep the money rolling in.by investing in the right person for whatever job they are hired for. It takes a whole team to win, HC, QB, or grounds keeper. GO BUCS!
July 20th, 2023 at 9:03 am
“The bad news? Mayfield’s sack percentage with Los Angelese sailed to the highest of his career. Was this due to being thrown into the fire just hours after being signed by the Rams?”
Add poor field vision + bad habit footwork + habitually settling for 1-read = Baker Mayfields biggest enemies of his pro career.
July 20th, 2023 at 9:08 am
I constantly remind Joe that Baker led the league in checkdowns last season. One could surmise that balls throw underneath to backs would more often result in higher catchable ratings than balls thrown to WRs 10+ years down field.
It’s why a guy who throws catchable balls only throws for 170 ypg.
July 20th, 2023 at 9:13 am
ATLBuc after what we saw out of Baker last year it blows my mind that people would pencil him in as starter. Expecting success there is an irrational expectation.
They keep talking about multiple seasons ago, but QBs get figured out – and sometimes the speed and violence of the game wears on guys. We can only go by the most recent performance for evaluation.
July 20th, 2023 at 9:18 am
“And with new Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales being part of McVay’s sprouting coaching tree”
I think this is 100 percent wrong. What am I missing?
Dave Canales never worked for Sean McVay. He only worked for Pete Carroll.
He did work under Shane Waldron for the last two years who did work a few of his 20 years under McVay. But jeez Waldron’s tree is huge and not just a McVay tree at all.
McVay clearly used outside zone schemes. Waldron last year used that but also used more gap/power designs and has been getting bigger OL as well to run that.
Waldron incorporates more pre-snap motions than McVay has tended to.
By the way besides McVay, Waldron has been on staffs of Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McDermott, and Gary Kubiak.
Let’s see what Canales brings us before thinking that it will be up tempo, 11 personnel, wide zone offense of McVay. “…and knowing Canales plans to run an offense similar to McVay’s”
July 20th, 2023 at 9:21 am
“By the way besides McVay, Waldron has been on staffs of Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McDermott, and Gary Kubiak.
Let’s see what Canales brings us before thinking that it will be up tempo, 11 personnel, wide zone offense of McVay. “…and knowing Canales plans to run an offense similar to McVay’s”
Take your logic, critical thinking and scram! “W” comment btw
July 20th, 2023 at 9:21 am
I hope that Trask will be the guy and we have some great upside with him.
But coaches really see who is the better, i.e. best player. If Baker starts, it is because he has looked better. The Bucs have not invested any great money into him so can easily play Trask.
Not a Baker fan but probably less optimistic about Trask. Coaches see greatness and if Trask showed that, he would be the guy right now.
July 20th, 2023 at 10:09 am
Interesting stat.
Wonder what my eyeball stat will tell me.
LOL
Go Bucs!
July 20th, 2023 at 10:57 am
I find this upcoming season very interesting from a football standpoint…
– what will Mayfield do
– what will Trask do
– will White get his head on straight
– what will the O-line be like
– what will the run game be with a competent OC
– how will Winfield ballhawk back at safety
– can Shaq return to greatness
– are any of the rookies going to shine
– can JTS or Logan Hall find their spark
If the only thing that matters to you is the Bucs winning the Super Bowl (why even watch the games then, just tune in come February), you are going to be disappointed… but if you love the game of football and teambuilding it will be fun to observe.
July 20th, 2023 at 11:26 am
dinks and dunks
July 20th, 2023 at 11:36 am
“but if you love the game of football and teambuilding it will be fun to observe.”
100% agree and cannot wait for the preseason, I’ll be in attendance for our preseason game vs the Jets
July 20th, 2023 at 11:47 am
@Dooley “100% agree and cannot wait for the preseason”. Me too! AND training camp which is even closer! We will get some QB news, for sure, in any event.
July 20th, 2023 at 1:45 pm
Again, I hear the mantra that the browns success in 2020 was due to chubb, hunt, and a GREAT defense. Chubb and hunt are studs and made the OL look better than they were. As for the defense…they were 14th in yards and 20th in points allowed. Mediocre. Baker played a huge role in changing the culture of a team coming off two 17 game losing streaks and taking them to the playoffs.
July 20th, 2023 at 2:17 pm
Hey “Trask Fan” who says Baker led the league in checkdowns last season…you ever heard of taking what the defense gives you? If checkdowns move the ball down the field towards points, what’s your beef? Given TB defense, points not turnovers will win games. Football is a team game. I want to see retractions of your tunnel-vision opinions when the Bucs are 11-5 or 12-4 and in the playoffs.
July 20th, 2023 at 3:00 pm
Totally agree with Student Of The Game. Most of the time you take what the defense gives you. As a long-time Browns fan I can tell you that Baker has an absolute gun. Threw as hard has Mahomes did in the NFL Combine. Baker wasn’t perfect in Cleveland, but the Browns absolutely screwed him by playing him hurt all season long and then holding onto him until July before trading him to Carolina… another sad team. ALTBuc, it’s time to calm down with all the Baker hatred and maybe try meditation. Go Bucs.
July 20th, 2023 at 4:21 pm
It’s not hatred for Mayfield , it is just living in the real world , yes, Mayfield was hurt for a while , everybody plays hurt, Brady, Mahomes, Rogers, all played hurt , but they won games , Mayfield has had one winning season, one, his first and it’s been all down hill since , now We’ve been getting a lot of propaganda about Mayfield over the summer, probably generated by Mayfield’s agent and marketers, who made a lot of money when Mayfield first came into the league but not so much lately, they see the chances for their cash cow slipping away so they’ve been giving it an all out effort to sell him to the fans as much as possible before the start of the preseason, understandable , business is business, but reality is still reality , IMHO, Kyle Trask offers by far the best return on investment for the future, We’ll soon see.