Data Dave Canales
June 24th, 2023
New Bucs playcaller Dave Canales.
Nobody accused the Buccaneers of being a modern offense last season, relying on analytics and embracing progressive football thinking.
In fact, Tom Brady and fired playcaller Byron Leftwich were huge fans of pencil, paper and eyeball tests.
Of course, those guys had an electric offense for two seasons and racked up points in the toughest of games. They also were led by Bucco Bruce Arians, who was a very forward-thinking guy but he also often scoffed at technology.
Enter new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. Joe caught an audio clip of Canales on WDAE radio on Friday afternoon. There Canales made it clear he’s very much an analytics guy.
“If you’re not using advanced stats and analytics, you’re missing it,” Canales said.
“What it does, same thing with the [NFL Scouting Combine], it allows you to cover the outliers really quickly. So it shows you, ‘This is really good. This is really bad.’ The part in the middle is where it doesn’t help you as much because that’s the part that’s like, ‘Hey, these are all about average numbers.’ You gotta dig in. Watch the film.”
The best coordinators use the reams of available data to their advantage but find a sweet balance between the numbers and old school coaching and film study. Joe thinks Canales has a much better shot at becoming that guy than did his predecessor.
If nothing else, Joe is very confident the Bucs will be a better team this season on 3rd-and-short and 4th-and-short situations.
June 24th, 2023 at 1:29 pm
We couldn’t be any worse. That’s for sure.
June 24th, 2023 at 1:31 pm
Just getting to 3rd and short will be a big improvement.
And not throwing so many 15-20+ yard lower percentage passes on 3rd and 2 would be nice as well…..
Move the chains and continue the drive. Distribute the ball and give your playmakers a chance to make a play.
June 24th, 2023 at 1:53 pm
Anything to not credit That Other Site I guess, eh?
June 24th, 2023 at 2:03 pm
If this guy turns out to be a good OC, we should call him “Super Dave”.
I used to love Super Dave back in the day. Lol.
June 24th, 2023 at 2:04 pm
Pickgrin…where you been bro? Missed your thoughtful posts. You eschew hyperbole for measured takes and actually bring some facts to the table.
June 24th, 2023 at 2:04 pm
I heard that interview. The guys a breath of fresh air. What a difference from Leftwich. Canales said he’s also excited about our O line. This could be a fun year.
June 24th, 2023 at 2:04 pm
That was on a Pwter Report.com video they aired the other night
June 24th, 2023 at 2:19 pm
I’m excited for the new offense. When I watched non bucs games last year. There was an obvious difference in game play and philosophy. The offenses were methodical and well planned. They were outsmarting the defense. Setting players up to be successful. Taking advantage of weaknesses and playing to thier strengths. They certainly relied on talent but they put that talent in the best position possible. Creating a situation that gave the offense an advantage. Versus watching Tampa’s offense. Felt like they relied purely on talent. Seemed as though the defense knew what was coming and the offensive coordinator didn’t care. The philosophy was you know what we are doing and if we do it right that won’t matter. “We do what we do”.
June 24th, 2023 at 2:23 pm
I would just like us to return to trying to out score the other team
June 24th, 2023 at 2:29 pm
like THAT would work
June 24th, 2023 at 3:05 pm
Sup spbf….
I never went anywhere. Just mostly sat back and enjoyed the short lived but very satisfying Golden Era of Buccaneers football.
Probably didn’t comment as much for awhile because of all the know-it-all Massholes and Brady fanboys who invaded this site when Tom came aboard and didn’t really give a spit about the Buccaneers.
Glad they are mostly gone now….
June 24th, 2023 at 4:36 pm
Data Dave – I like it. At least it isn’t Disparaging Dave or Dummy Dave or Derelict Dave. Much better than Sarcastic SpongeBob.
June 24th, 2023 at 4:54 pm
Joe … ‘If nothing else, Joe is very confident the Bucs will be a better team this season on 3rd-and-short and 4th-and-short situations.’
Wow do I hope you’re right on that prediction Joe. 3rd & 4th down conversion rates are definitely important. But are they MORE important than 1st or 2nd down performance? A number of different analyses seem to suggest no.
Sharp Football Analysis put out an interesting article titled ‘How Crucial Is Success On Third Down?’ back on 13 Sep 2019 based on games played in 2015-2018 timeframe (excluding blowouts). Lots of good info, but the 2 most interesting sentences in there IMO were …
‘We should expect a certain amount of consistency between early downs and third down. A good offense is generally a good offense regardless of the situation.’
IOW, good offenses are CONSISTENT, and because of that no one down ends up really being more important than the others. Such seems to be the case with our 2020 & 2021 Bucs. We scored almost at will it seemed (an average of over 500 points per season, our highest ever); ie, we were consistent. And our 3rd down stats reflect that (43.5% in 2020 and 47.1% in 2021).
s bad Last year’s offense wasn’t consistent at all (well, unless being ‘consistently bad’ counts). And their 37.4% 3rd down conversion rate reflects that it would seem (almost 10% LOWER than our 2021 rate of 47.1%). As bad as that might sound, last year’s 37.4% is still HIGHER than the 2002 Bucs’ offense achieved (35.6%) and not much worse than the BEST that Chucky’s offenses ever did here (39.4% in 2005).
June 24th, 2023 at 5:31 pm
Let’s say you look across the landscape of the NFL, and use Analytics to discover that the slot guy in this formation against this defensive front yields really good results, like 75% catch for 5+ yards Im just hypothesizing here.
Now you KNOW a play works so you look at which personnel to use and why.
Lots of space, Trey Palmer.
One guy close, Chris Godwin.
Routine 1st down pickup, Mike Evans etc.
Dave Canales already knows which plays statistically have a high success rate AND why.
I know he has never called plays, but everyone starts somewhere.
Execution is easier when the whole team knows what we are doing.
June 24th, 2023 at 5:59 pm
Teams & coaches need to get out of this stupid analytics mindset & just coach because it’s costing them games also by making decisions like this.
By passing on points when they should kick it.
By going for it when they should punt it.
It could even cost them a playoff spot later on, too! I could keep going.
Especially when you go for it on 4th down & don’t get it because then you just give the other team the momentum. If you’re in FG range at least try to kick the FG & take the points instead of coming out of there with nothing because even if you miss it at least you tried to kick it.
June 24th, 2023 at 6:01 pm
Like most things offensively, the stats are getting better year by year.
In the years from 2003 to 2005, during that three-year period, the mean 3rd down conversion for those three years in the NFL was 37.7%.
In the years from 2020 to 2022, that three-year period, the mean 3rd down conversion rate was 40.5%.
So the Bucs 37.7 from last year is below the mean period from 2003 to 2005 and is well below the 2020 to 2022 ratio.
But even worse last year, let’s look at the red zone TD ratio.
From 2003 to 2005, the NFL mean was 51.4%.
From 2020 to 2022, the NFL mean was 57.8%.
Last year, the Bucs were at 52%. Personally, I am hoping we are not going backward to the early 2000’s level on Red Zone TD ratio. Not sure a 2003 to 2005 offensive philosophy works that well.
It is good to be balanced in running the ball, but you have to throw well in the red zone and have an OC with excellent imagination to score a lot of red zone TDs IMO.
Last year, the 6 worst teams in the Red Zone for scoring TDs were:
Seattle
Houston
Indy
Balt
Jets
New England
We were 8th worst. Generally, your OC is gone when you are one of the worst teams in the league at red zone TDs.
June 24th, 2023 at 6:15 pm
I heard the whole interview…. He had me wanting to run through a brick wall…… Too bad you guys got to act like you didn’t hear it all…
June 24th, 2023 at 6:18 pm
Using too much data, however, can make you extremely predictable. That’s why Leftwich was so special, not only did he reject data, he was also ultra predictable. What a combo.
June 25th, 2023 at 1:08 am
This was an amazing interview by PR. Easily found on youtube. Took him 10 minutes to find a good Wi-Fi spot in his new home. So skip the first 10 mins. It’s really worth checking out.
June 25th, 2023 at 1:49 am
I see a lot of love for Canales and “his” system on these pages lately.
Lest we forget, he was an assistant to an assistant QB coach last year. Those that attribute the Seahawks, and Gino’s success to him are, IMO, grasping for straws. He has not called a play in any game at all yet. I hope he’s hit on a great system, for his sake as well as the teams. We’ll find out come September
We also have a HC who has blamed his OC for losing seasons in four of the last five seasons he has been HC. This is a big part of the reason, IMO, that Canales was the best we could hire for the position.
As a fan since this franchise was first announced, I truly wish him luck.
And I always want to see as many wins as we can possibly muster.
This season will hinge more on coaching than player performance IMO.
I just hope that it produces fewer “NFL retirements” than our HC’s last four seasons have produced(forced).
June 25th, 2023 at 4:12 am
It’s going to be very different now that coach moron is gone.
June 25th, 2023 at 8:18 am
I’m with you GP. I hope Canales works out, but there seems a lot of confidence for Canales and I am not sure why as you outlined.
June 25th, 2023 at 10:45 am
These guys are applying AI to their analytics now to determine which plays and players have the highest probability of success against their opponents. They are are all doing it. Knowing all of these teams are doing this now the OCs have to get very creative with their calls. Its an adapt or become obsolete quickly situation for these coordinators.
June 25th, 2023 at 12:52 pm
I would be really concerned too IF I thought Canales was the assistant to the assistant Qb coach last year with Seattle. Not true.
June 25th, 2023 at 2:14 pm
Stanglassman
While a QB coach “might” be next in line for OC, it’s not a given on any team.
His “assistant” would be several places behind him in the pecking order.
OK, he wasn’t the assistant to the assistant….
Pecking order wise though, there was a long line in front of him.
And OC experience? 0.0 %
Color me concerned, about the thought processes of ‘some’ of our fellow fans.
I’d love to see the Cinderella story too! Lets just hope it’s not a faery tale.
June 25th, 2023 at 7:17 pm
It depends on the team. I’ve seen teams name a coach asst. HC and QB Coach because he is the Heir apparent HC. So he can only get poached if they’re offered HC job. No lateral moves. I’ve also seen many Qb coaches step to head coach. He was highly thought of throughout the league. He seems to be a raising star. We will see. If nothing else we know the team loves him and he sure talks the talk. We’ll all find out the rest in the coming months.
Example from this offseason.
Eagles promote QB coach Brian Johnson to offensive coordinator 2/23
June 25th, 2023 at 7:24 pm
I’m not against Canales, hoping he really shines cause that will mean we’re winning!
I’m just pointing out the many who profess to know his system when “his” system has never been called on a field of play.
We don’t know if he’s going to run, throw, or crap his pants.
June 26th, 2023 at 1:01 am
The first thing you learn in a college stats class is….Stats can be used to get the resullts you desire. As in they can be misleading.
Go Bucs!
June 26th, 2023 at 4:31 am
“Teams & coaches need to get out of this stupid analytics mindset & just coach because it’s costing them games also by making decisions like this.
By passing on points when they should kick it.
By going for it when they should punt it.
It could even cost them a playoff spot later on, too! I could keep going.
Especially when you go for it on 4th down & don’t get it because then you just give the other team the momentum. If you’re in FG range at least try to kick the FG & take the points instead of coming out of there with nothing because even if you miss it at least you tried to kick it.”
Working pretty good for the Eagles…