Baker Mayfield And Dropped Passes
June 29th, 2023
Was he hurt by drops?
So yeah, it seems a lot of folks across the lower-48 are giddy in anticipation that Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is done. Toast. They think the broke Bucs (as in salary cap crunched) are only giving him a leaky life raft for a few months.
Of course, many of the pre-written obituaries are largely based on Mayfield’s 2022 calendar year in which the Browns dumped him, the Stinking Panthers dumped him, and then Mayfield showed signs of life with the Rams.
Mayfield’s completion percentage was 60 percent. Not very good. As always, it helps to peel the onion skins back to get a better look.
Joe looked at Mayfield’s dropped passes. Let’s be real: It wasn’t like Mayfield was throwing to receivers like Tom Brady had in recent years like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, foot-rubbing Rob Gronkowski and the posterchild for mental health awareness, serial deadbeat Antonio Brown.
Drop numbers always are all over the map because it is such a subjective stat. One man’s drop is another man’s uncatchable pass. It’s also an unofficial stat. The NFL doesn’t keep drop stats (but you can guarantee teams compile such numbers.)
Mayfield, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, saw 5.3 percent of his pass attempts dropped last season.
Is that bad? Well, you be the judge: It was slightly higher than Brady’s (4.5 percent) and a whole lot lower than Lamar Jackson (8.4), drama queen Aaron Rodgers (7.8) and Trevor Lawrence (7.1).
So no, Joe cannot sit here and suggest Mayfield was a victim of receivers with butterfingers. Besides, Mayfield’s 2022 season completion percentage of 60 percent is pretty darn consistent with his NFL career.
In Mayfield’s five seasons in the NFL, his completion percentage was 63.8 (2018), 59.4 (2019), 62.8 (2020), 60.5 (2021) and then last year at 60.
June 29th, 2023 at 3:54 am
He also led the league in checkdowns last year – don’t forget that Joe.
June 29th, 2023 at 4:19 am
Justin Herbert leads the league in checkdowns with 172 since 2020.
Trevor Lawerence is also high on the list.
Baker is NOT a checkdown guy that is a myth.
You don’t throw picks checking it down.
June 29th, 2023 at 5:05 am
In other words, per Joe’s own words, Mayfield’s career completion % isn’t very good.
I like the intangibles he exhibited in Cleveland. Maybe that attitude will resurface by the Bay. The real determining factor for 2023 will be the run game. A mediocre QB can go places with a great defense and strong ball possession offense.
It is more likely the Bucs field a great defense but how great that is translated via the stats will depend on how well the offense pounds the ball. It is the unconventional approach in 2023.
June 29th, 2023 at 5:38 am
Dropped passes? How about fumbles & interceptions instead? Mayfield turned out to be his own worst enemy … because of giveaways. Fumbled the rock 36 times & was intercepted 64 times for a cool 100 total in the 72 games he’s appeared in. That’s not talking about how many sacks he took over those 72 games (a whopping 170), many of which also killed drives. If Mayfield can fix THOSE issues, he’ll have a very good chance to start for the Bucs. If not … welcome to Jameisville Baker.
June 29th, 2023 at 6:00 am
If the media spins any harder for Baker we’ll be caught in hurricane. DR laid his stats out and it’s pretty clear. He’s not very good. You can’t blame his poor decision making on his teammates and coaches. We’ll see if he’s improved very soon.
June 29th, 2023 at 6:18 am
Do the drop passes stats include the batted passes dropped by the defensive line?
June 29th, 2023 at 6:55 am
He was good enough for one glorious season to turn around the lowly Cleveland Browns and take them to the playoffs after a 5000 year drought and 1000 failed other starting quarterbacks. Not only that he destroyed the Steelers in that first in forever playoff game and almost knocked out All Workd Patr8ck Mahomes the following game. Give the guy a break and PLEASE don’t compare him to Winston.
June 29th, 2023 at 8:13 am
There is a lot of poor coaching in the NFL. We’ll find out if Caneles can inspire his offense to be good – than a good to very good Defense could take the Bucs deep into the playoffs, but Bowles needs to stop being overly conservative in managing the game.
June 29th, 2023 at 8:30 am
Ok, well at least his wife is hot
June 29th, 2023 at 8:41 am
Yeah, “Let’s be Real” Neither 2023 Bucs QB will be throwing to AB or Gronk. Evans, Godwin yes, but the AB, Gronk, Brady train has already left the station. So Yeah! “Let’s be Real”!!!!
GO!!!!!BUCS!!!!!
June 29th, 2023 at 8:46 am
Quit throwing out all the stats, he has moxie to make up for all his shortcomings. No pun intended
June 29th, 2023 at 8:46 am
Hope persists.
I pesonally will not hold the Panthers against him as that is one hell of a spit show there.
We Shall see.
Go Bucs!
June 29th, 2023 at 9:45 am
If he can spend a little more time in the pocket he will reduce the fumbles and interceptions.
He seems to have brought his happy feet with him, though. That means he is afraid of being pressured and will run around and screw up.
That is him at his worst.
June 29th, 2023 at 9:45 am
🙂
June 29th, 2023 at 10:04 am
The most important stat of all for Baker Mayfield:
Minus 40% win record.
That’s not going to get us a winning season.
That’s not going to get us into the playoffs.
That’s not going to get us to even sniff the Superbowl.
What that WILL do is cost us the #1 pick in 2024.
June 29th, 2023 at 10:05 am
BillyBucco Says
“You don’t throw picks checking it down.”
Oh yes you do.
June 29th, 2023 at 10:07 am
Winston managed to throw picks in checkdown passes.
June 29th, 2023 at 10:14 am
Baker: checks it down during passing drills
Everyone Else: Moxie!
June 29th, 2023 at 10:22 am
Baker Mayfield has never been in a stable organization until he became a Ram under McVay. My evidence: after dislocating his shoulder and completely tearing his labrum in the second game of the 2021 season, what do the Browns do, they pop his shoulder back in and play him. My question to all of you is, if Mahomes gets the same injury, do the Chiefs let him continue to play? What about Burrow, or Rogers or any other starting QB in the NFL? think we all know the answer to that question. Only the insane Browns front office makes that stupid move. And I don’t care if Baker desperately wanted to play. The smart move was to shut him down. After all, he just led his team to the playoffs the previous year! Are there areas in his game that Baker must improve upon? Of course. But his lack of production all starts after that injury and the terrible decision to play him by the Browns. Go Bucs!
June 29th, 2023 at 10:48 am
@WyomingJoe
Umm, the Browns organization > the Bucs organization
When Baker was there, he had a FAR BETTER team and coaching staff then when Winston was here.
I am not advocating for Winston. I am just being REAL about Baker. Winston at this point in his career is FAR BETTER than Baker.
WHY, because Winston did MORE with LESS and he never had a chance at the PLAYOFFS due to the Mike and Lovie Smith influences.
I would of loved to have seen Winston in the MUCH TALKED ABOUT second year of Bruces system. HOWEVER, I will take Brady 100 out of 100 times.
What we are about to witness with Baker is another EXCUSE season for why BAKER doesn’t have a good team, coach and organization around him.
I don’t understand why people are not understanding this comparison. Its not like we wanted JW back. We just don’t want to be sold a repackaged LESSER VERSION of JW.
June 29th, 2023 at 11:36 am
Let’s give the guy a chance.
Maybe he stinks it up. Maybe he tears it up.
For the next couple of months we can hope for a winner. True, we may be disappointed, but why not be happy for a while. Hope springs eternal.
June 29th, 2023 at 12:21 pm
I guess everyone already knows this, but Baker Mayfield’s torn labrum was in his non-throwing (left) shoulder. The injury reportedly occurred while trying to make a tackle after an interception.
As posted previously, my initial stat to evaluate QB play is a TD/INT ratio of at least 2:1 . Baker Mayfield has done that only once in five seasons. Jameis Winston has done it only once in 8 seasons (but only for seven games).
tickrdr
PS: Even Mike Glennon posted a >2:1 ratio in his rookie season.
June 29th, 2023 at 12:49 pm
This is going to be similar to the bucs Jeff Garcia offense , with better receivers and a higher ceiling. And I’m okay with that.
June 29th, 2023 at 12:49 pm
@Crackwise
“Umm, the Browns organization > the Bucs organization”
0 Super Bowls is > 2 Super Bowls. Gotcha.
June 29th, 2023 at 12:53 pm
Just Leave Trask Alone Says:
“Baker: checks it down during passing drills
Everyone Else: Moxie!”
LMAO
June 29th, 2023 at 1:06 pm
The old school Shula Dolphins with the no name defense and a great Fullback with a Griese type QB could be developed here. But Bowles is no Shula and we have no Csonka.
June 29th, 2023 at 1:26 pm
Grover this isn’t 1972
June 29th, 2023 at 1:57 pm
@StickinUp4Centers
Context matters. What the next sentence say? EXACTLY, I was comparing the franchises at the time of the QBs in question.
Don’t say you got something when you clearly MISSED something.
Regardless. to your point, I will take 2 SBs over ZERO and who cares about the rest of the time.
Gezzz, I hope Baker does well OBVIOUSLY, just not excited over him starting over a STUD college QB that has yet to get a fair chance to play.
Who would want JW to start over Trask at this point? I’ll wait….
June 29th, 2023 at 2:03 pm
Never been much of a Baker fan. But he is our likely starter this next year and I will finally be watching him a bunch. For all of you that mention last year though, he had the worst offensive coach/coordinator in the NFL in Mark (I mean Matt) Rhule.
That guy was just clueless when it came to making an NFL quarterback work. Every NFL QB he touched looked better when he was with another NFL coach/team.
June 29th, 2023 at 6:34 pm
Man, it sure does seem like a lot of Mayfields career stats (low completion %, high INT rate, high sack rate) are very similar to another #1 draft pick that used to play QB for this very team…
Ruh roh
June 29th, 2023 at 11:33 pm
After sitting though the 0-8 at home season, our reward was getting to top pick in the draft. We had a choice between Winston and Mariota. We got the better of the two. We weren’t the joke of the league any more with Winston, but weren’t an elite team. The people who say we should go with Trask because that would give us the worst record and top pick need to remember that’s not necessarily a golden ticket. Mayfield is also proof of that. But after last year’s losing record if we can get above .500 with him. that would be an improvement.
June 30th, 2023 at 12:28 am
everyone he needs to get a clue and stop looking at stats with him he has been inconsistent because he was the only guy in history that been through more and hated beyond belief i’m a former browns fan and i’m not since they screwed this kid he went to a joke of a team and then got blamed and trashed but never stopped to there level tampa fans ya need to sit back and watch your gonna see him pass all the so called top guys he was on his way and he made what should have been praised but back fired cause the coach and gm had this planned from the start he was put in a offense that was supposed to make him fail and he went to playoffs and the injury gave them the window to bash and try to ruin him and they will pay this is his time the man has never had a system taylored to him or the outside weapons like this i’m with this guy forever and your about to see why he will be top 5 and CPOY enjoy the best thing tampa has ever had when the dust clears baker is better then anyone that’s came out with or after he just never had ANY stable arians brought him here cause he knows what the man been threw
June 30th, 2023 at 3:00 am
Mayfield and Todd Bowles deserve each other, just wish they were with the Jets not Buc’s. Ten cent coach and five cent QB.
June 30th, 2023 at 4:13 am
After all these replies I am still laughing over “serial deadbeat”.
😀
I don’t think Canales will allow happy feet from his QB. I also think any QB will get better under his coaching. In the words of J. L. Picard, “Hope and the odds make strange bedfellows”.