Quick Pace Didn’t Result In Many Points
June 22nd, 2023
More plays didn’t mean more points.
Joe doesn’t know what to make of this stat. Good, bad or just bewildering?
One of Joe’s favorite sites, FootballOutsiders.com, has gone dark for the past month, shortly after published articles documented cash flow problems with its new owners. Former (?) writers and columnists there have put out cryptic messages on social media about being unemployed. #Sad
The stats on the site live on.
The following stat surprised and confused Joe. Would you believe last year the Bucs had the highest pace of play in the NFL? Meaning the Bucs averaged the least amount of time snapping the ball after a play was blown dead, just over 25 seconds per play.
Stat geeks love this and on face value, it is easy to see why. Less time means your offense (in theory) has more offensive plays in a game. More plays = more chances to score.
Or, with some coaches, more chances to reach third down.
Yes, the Bucs also led the NFL in average offensive plays per game, just under 70.
Still, the Bucs were 25th in the NFL last year in scoring.
Since former Bucs coach Dirk Koetter took over as offensive coordinator in 2015, the Bucs have been in the top-10 for least amount of time burned between the whistle and the snap each season.
The only conclusion Joe reached is that Bucs coach Todd Bowles made no secret he wanted to get away from Bucco Bruce Arians’ no-risk-it; no-biscuit offense. Arians seemed more concerned with getting across the goal line and Bowles was more interested in converting third downs to keep his defense rested.
How else to explain so little time between plays yet so few points scored?
(For those wondering, Seattle was middle of the pack in pace of play last season, ranked No. 14 and No. 22 in average offensive plays per game.)
June 22nd, 2023 at 1:01 am
Of course it was fast.
How long does it take for Ole Lefty to pull a play out of a hat.
I’m sure he picked 3 plays and ran them regardless of the down and distance.
We are gonna see 5-7 yard chunks mainly because thats how you sustain a drive, wear out their defense and keep your defense fresh.
Our defense was solid last year, but this stat leads me to believe we had a worn out defense by the 2nd half every game.
June 22nd, 2023 at 1:12 am
Agree — that the defense was gassed late in the season.
June 22nd, 2023 at 3:57 am
Running a massive amount of pass plays from behind will inflate that stat. Easy to see why.
Go Bucs
June 22nd, 2023 at 4:27 am
BillyBucco said: I’m sure he picked 3 plays and ran them regardless of the down and distance.
ROFL!!! That’s a good one! And true. Its funny because I thought the same thing; that he had his scripted plays and did not depart from them no matter what the situation was.
June 22nd, 2023 at 5:43 am
This sounds like a hurry up offense minus the offense. Who does that?
‘
June 22nd, 2023 at 7:04 am
By week 3 Brady realized the huge mistake he made unretiring and constantly ran the hurry up offense to get the season over with.
June 22nd, 2023 at 7:47 am
Premature Ejaculation Offense
June 22nd, 2023 at 7:50 am
The biggest two stats that have to change is 3rd Down Conversion Percentage and Red Zone TD Percentage.
In 2022 3rd Down Percentage was 37%, Red Zone TD Percentage 52%
Before that:
2021 45% and 66%
2020 45% and 69%
2019 41% and 65%
(Stats from Pro Football Reference)
Can Canales be effective of enough in those categories?
If we are effective in the red zone and 3rd down percentage areas like we were during the Bruce Arians era, I don’t care if we pass or run a lot, I don’t care about the pace of our plays.
June 22nd, 2023 at 7:58 am
Seems a lot of the plays were called at the line of scrimmage. Doesn’t the QB usually call plays at the LOS? Who was our QB last year again. Brady wasn’t the only person that regretted he came back last season. Every man on the roster and on the staff likely regretted his decision too. Brady ran plays like he was in a hurry to not get hit and punt.
June 22nd, 2023 at 8:18 am
How else to explain so little time between plays yet so few points scored?
—The Bucs had neither the OLine talent or Offensive Coordinator to generate a running game capable of keeping a Defense off balance.
June 22nd, 2023 at 8:25 am
Well we only had like 3 plays, didn’t take long to pick one
June 22nd, 2023 at 8:37 am
Joe … ‘Arians seemed more concerned with getting across the goal line and Bowles was more interested in converting third downs to keep his defense rested. How else to explain so little time between plays yet so few points scored?’
The logic of tying those 2 statements together eludes me Joe.
You don’t think that EVERY coach is ‘concerned with getting across the goal line’?
You don’t think that EVERY coach is ‘interested in converting third downs’?
You don’t think that EVERY coach wants ‘to keep his defense fresh’ as much as possible?
Arians succeeded in Arizona AND in Tampa when Bowles was his DC, but he was average without Bowles. From everything I’ve read & seen, BA recognized what a superb defensive coach he had in Todd Bowles & pretty much stayed out of the defense. Jon Gruden did pretty much the same thing when he had Monte Kiffin as his DC. Smart moves.
In Bowles’ case last year, BL screwed us (and him) by the way he called games. Bucs having the ‘highest pace of play’ in the NFL last year actually worked against us … and the defense. Not only did we convert fewer 3rd downs, but our TOP also decreased over the previous Arians’ years. NEITHER of those help the defense; quite the contrary, it would seem that they hurt the defense because they’re on the field longer.
o Bucs (2022): TOP – 28:54 (rank – #28)
o Bucs (2021): TOP – 30:11 (rank – #18)
o Bucs (2020): TOP – 29:06 (rank – #21)
o Bucs (2019): TOP – 30:54 (rank – #9)
June 22nd, 2023 at 9:57 am
It means we had a lot of quick 3 and outs playing catch up, putting a tired defense back on the field
June 22nd, 2023 at 9:57 am
That’s not the reason it correlates. You don’t get any “more plays” on offense. You still only get 3 downs to get that first down.
Two reasons it correlates: If you play fast, the defenses won’t be quite as ready, they will tire and play on their heels more. Second, a bad offense is going to be confused and generally take longer than seasoned guys who know exactly what they are doing.
June 22nd, 2023 at 11:34 am
DR
***In Bowles’ case last year, BL screwed us (and him) by the way he called games.***
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I appreciate how you stand up for Bowles. And as long as he is head coach of the Buc’s, I hope and pray for his success as well.
On the other hand….
I have to remember Bowles past history as head coach.
In four of his five seasons as HC, he has posted a losing record AND blamed it on his OC. Getting them fired and pretty much destroying their NFL careers. IMO, this is the reason the most “qualified’ and “experienced” OC we could hire, was an assistant (assistant to an assistant?) QB coach last year. An OC that has never even called in a game-time play at any level, to the best of my knowledge.
To be fair, people need to be given a chance to be able to succeed.
This is Canales BIG chance to succeed and become great.
It is also, IMO, Bowles’ LAST chance to succeed as HC.
Though I’m willing to bet HE will still have a career as a DC.
June 22nd, 2023 at 11:36 am
^^^^^
Not trying to defend Leftwich here, Just pointing out a pattern
June 22nd, 2023 at 12:41 pm
Bowles wanted a balanced offense with more ball control. Unfortunately, we didnt have the personnel, and its not the 90s. Red zone conversions for this team was an abomination, and those points lost made all the difference between wins and losses. If your defense is consistently getting tired and worn out, perhaps you are running the wrong one. Coaching is the biggest problem on this team.
June 23rd, 2023 at 8:55 pm
Of course the were one of the fastest to run plays
1) Brady is experienced. Knows how to get the team organized and readyto play.
2) Run plays typically take less time to call vs pass play. We ran a lot.
3) when we ran we gained a whole 2 yards. Easy to rehuddle and call another fast play run up them middle.
Not hard to understand.