After Reviewing The Schedule, Cynthia Frelund Says…
May 12th, 2023
Calculates Bucs’ win-loss total.
So the NFL Network’s resident stat queen, in the wake of the NFL releasing the 2023 schedule, ran her numbers to determine each team’s win-loss record.
And Cynthia Frelund found that our friends in the desert are spot on with their prediction for the Bucs’ win total this fall. Some weeks ago, Vegas oddsmakers set the Bucs’ win-loss total at 6.5. Surprisingly, draft hype (hate?) didn’t budge the number.
So after Frelund learned of the Bucs’ schedule, she massaged her keyboard and the numbers tell her the Bucs’ new win-loss total is 6.4.
Buccaneers
Wins 6.4
Win Total: under 6.5 (-140)
Make Playoffs: +400
Win Division: +800
Win Conference: +3500
Win Super Bowl: +8000Week 3’s home contest against the Eagles presents a challenge, but the Week 5 bye could provide Tampa with a chance to reset early in the post-Tom Brady era. Looming after that is the Bucs’ most daunting four-game swing: at the Bills in Week 8, at the Texans in Week 9, vs. the Titans in Week 10 and at the Niners in Week 11.
For the most part, the latter part of the schedule should be when the Bucs rack up a bunch of wins. After a tough first month, the games get easier in the final weeks.
Reading Frelund’s claim the Bucs will finish under 6.5 wins, Joe has to wonder if a second straight losing season (and his fifth straight losing season overall as a head coach) will doom head coach Todd Bowles?
The only coach Team Glazer has retained after two straight losing seasons was also the same guy who won them a Super Bowl. And it is the same guy Team Glazer threw out of the Ring of Honor.
Chucky.
May 12th, 2023 at 12:25 am
5 wins max. Would not be shocked if they start 0-7 and finish 3-14.
May 12th, 2023 at 1:12 am
Well, Stat Queen I am not, but I have more faith in the Bucs than she does. There is too much good going on. Not that I think we are SB bound, but the team that did go had lost 5 games ahead of it.
May 12th, 2023 at 1:17 am
Funniest Ish I have ever heard of.
Imagine 30 years ago if you came out with a garbage “formula” like this.
What I really hate is when they only ‘revisit’ their prediction when they are right, which is what, 40% of the time?
But Writers have to write………….
May 12th, 2023 at 1:19 am
And I meant 40% if you are good.
Also she looks really good neck down
May 12th, 2023 at 1:59 am
I kind of get her NFC prognostications: AZ dead last with 4 wins with Green Bay, the Bucs and the Rams all under 7 wins.
However, some of the AFC predictions are really different then what Vegas would tell you: the Colts with 10 wins and the Jags with 6, only more than the Texans with 4 in the AFC? Her algorithms must really like Richardson….. Jets at under 7 though is a good guess, I suspect that Rodgers is going to be anchored in the basement of the AFC East.
As far as the Bucs though 6-11 sounds about right. If they had better coaching at the top I bet that win total would be 8 or 9 given their division.
May 12th, 2023 at 3:19 am
Dungy cost at least one more Super Bowl win. He inherited an awesome team and wasted at least one year by running wd40 up the middle time after time.
Remember folks, what teams have the most wins in a Super Bowl without a loss.
May 12th, 2023 at 4:09 am
I see us winning 5 games just within the division a win against jags Texans Gb Detroit Chicago 10 win season nfc south champs
May 12th, 2023 at 5:01 am
Butterface.
May 12th, 2023 at 5:57 am
They never learn … what a team did last year is of zero predictive value for what they will do the following year. Proven over and over and over and over and over again.
That’s why they play the games.
May 12th, 2023 at 6:56 am
I don’t gamble.
Have no clue what or even why those numbers have any meaning to the average real fan.
May 12th, 2023 at 7:10 am
We went 7-9 with Winston at the helm in his last season and a lesser defense. I think whomever starts will be an upgrade over Winston and also an upgrade over the Nutless Brady impostor we started last season. I think Brady was a bigger reason for the failure than Leftwich who didn’t have Arians at his back to keep the GOAT accountability for his lack of nerve and unwillingness to push the ball down the field. Our offense will be loads better this season. Plodding, stumbling, slow Fournette is gone, immobile behind the line of scrimmage checkdown artist Brady is retired, our offense will be markedly improved … and so will our D.
We will struggle to stay .500 early and then pour it on late to reach double digit wins.
May 12th, 2023 at 7:32 am
What a bunch of negative c s’ers
May 12th, 2023 at 8:21 am
The truth is “NOBODY KNOWS” for sure. I can say with quiet confidence that they will win between zero and seventeen games. Previous performance may be meaningless but it sure as hell tempers expectations, for good or ill. Because Tampa is home I pull for them and I am therefore a prisoner to their effort and success or lack of it. (held hostage by their opponents in the same way)
May 12th, 2023 at 8:25 am
If we have a losing season, particularly under 6.4 wins, I have a suspicion Bowles will be gone. A bad losing season means we’re going after a QB in the 2024 draft. The Glazer’s will want a new coach working with the rookie to ensure consistency in the offensive strategy moving forward.
May 12th, 2023 at 8:27 am
Statistics is about inferring an outcome (this is possible), not predicting it (this will happen). Sports is something that I don’t think anyone can predict with any high level of confidence – there are too many variables (human decisions, injuries) that can change an outcome from minute to minute. Sports statistics is more about a guess and creating a talking point around it.
It’s much easier to predict things that follow some non-obvious pattern for which historical data can be used to find the hidden patterns: like the likelihood of an earthquake based on tectonic shift data.
May 12th, 2023 at 8:27 am
Fully agree!
May 12th, 2023 at 8:30 am
I don’t see it! I see us winning 16 games
May 12th, 2023 at 8:34 am
Although, there is one instance of stats making millions that I know of – horse racing. A group of people created a sophisticated and proprietary quant algorithm (which probably had a ton of variables) that allowed them to make millions on horse racing consistently.
But, a horse runs from point A to point B. They’re not getting tackled from the blind side. But, it’s tricky because you have to factor in the rider, the weather, the horse’s health, horse’s pedigree, etc. I forgot where I read about it, but it’s documented in a book and online.
May 12th, 2023 at 8:55 am
What a flock of chicken littles. Woe is me we actually have to play the games we are scheduled, we will lose… What a sad mental state you JBF posters “Buc Fans” are in. And had we gotten the Saints schedule we would still hear how bad you know our season will be. Every team plays the schedule they’re given. Are our “fans” still secretly wanting to #collapseforcaleb? Why not have conviction our team will surprise the NFL and kick arse? Must be a sad life JBF’s “Bucs Fans” live in. And do not give me the “realist” mumbo-jumbo. The reality is every team is 0-0, every team will play 18 games. Every team will have adversity to overcome. Why all the loser mentality, must be easier to live in ya’ll’s weak-minded view of expecting to lose. Play the game at hand one team at a time.
Go!!!!! Bucs!!!!!
May 12th, 2023 at 9:33 am
Toad will easily make it five in a row and begin his new career breeding hamsters. And gerbils.
May 12th, 2023 at 9:55 am
Why can’t you be a fan – root for them like your life depends on it, but have an opinion that your roster is lacking and you are in for a very tough year.
I see team with:
An average at best head coach
Nothing proven at QB
complete oline in disarray (we have great / good players there but its going to
probably take this year to get it right)
A defense that can’t consistently rush the passer.
Depth issues on the defense backend (this will get better next year…)
I think we will get better as the year goes on, I think we will look way better on offense, but I don’t think we have the head coach or QB to close out games late in the 4th quarter.
Go Bucs! Shock the world!
May 12th, 2023 at 10:12 am
Who knows what this team will look like? We haven’t seen the offense yet since it’s new and the defense has new pieces as well. I think it’d be a miracle to get 6 wins. Its takes great QBs to have a chance and we don’t have that. I hope Trask proves me wrong.
May 12th, 2023 at 10:43 am
I think we can all agree our defense this year will be decent, probably slightly better than last year. I think our run D will be better this year, and we’ll probably have as many sacks as last year, maybe more, depending on our rookies on D.
My big question, again, is our offensive line. IF it improves a bunch, we should have a serviceable run game, bordering on decent if chemistry is developed and guys stay mostly healthy. We all know we have a good/great WR room. The QB room is a huge unknown presently.
The key to this season, as it was last year, is our offensive line and QB play. If those 2 key areas are improved, I could see this team’s ceiling at 10-7. If nothing goes well…well, we’ll be lucky to have 6-7 wins.
I am loosely optimistic, but in no way do I envision this team being a legit contender in the post-season. But, that’s one reason I LOVE watching football: each year each team is different, and surprises can happen!!
GOBUCS!!!
May 12th, 2023 at 12:51 pm
If the Bucs have less than 7 wins, the Glazers will have a plane ready to take Bowles wherever as long as its away from Tampa.
May 13th, 2023 at 8:49 am
Go Rusty!!!
These Whiney “fans”? would complain if you hung em with a new rope!